olivLaw · European equity research
METLEN Energy & Metals plc MTLN.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00BTQGS779 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
METLEN is an integrated energy and metals group, the largest independent fully integrated utility in Greece, with activities in power generation and supply, renewables and aluminium. In 2025 it moved its primary listing to London, while its medium-term profitability target remained central to the strategy amid energy volatility. Turnover reached 7107 million EUR and EBITDA 753 million EUR.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, METLEN Energy & Metals plc (MTLN.L) stock was 44.56 EUR (−8.84% on the day), with market capitalisation 6.4 bn EUR, P/E 20.3 on diluted EPS of 2.20 EUR over the last 12 months, beta 0.80, 52-week range 31.75–50.85 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 35.7
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 46.14 – 50.15
- below the lower band · %B -0.39 · band width 8.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 48.05 / 41.96
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.30 / -0.04
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −10.3% | −0.6% | −9.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −11.0% | −4.2% | −6.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | +17.9% | +4.3% | +13.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +0.8% | +7.5% | −6.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | −3.4% | +9.9% | −13.4 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +49.8% | unavailable | +26.3% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +42.8% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 20.1, median 20.1, max 20.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.7 bn | 7.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +25.1% |
| Net income | 614.6 m | 314.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −48.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 4.33 | 2.20 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −49.3% |
| net % | 10.8% | 4.4% |
| Free cash flow | -234.6 m | -181.8 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.8 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- 4.1 bn EUR
- Net debt
- 2.3 bn EUR
- Equity
- 3.1 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 11.4 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 1.32x
- Current ratio
- 1.86x
- ROE
- 10.1%
- ROA
- 2.8%
- FCF margin
- -2.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.7 bn | 7.1 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 4.7 bn | 6.6 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.0 bn | 465.3 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 917.3 m | 562.7 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 185.3 m | 210.1 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 748.4 m | 382.3 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 117.6 m | 57.3 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 614.6 m | 314.5 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 4.33 | 2.20 | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.4 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.6 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 6.2 bn | 7.1 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 279.5 m | 278.2 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 500.4 m | 349.5 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 10.7 bn | 11.4 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 375.9 m | 205.5 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 3.4 bn | 3.9 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 3.5 bn | 3.8 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 7.6 bn | 8.3 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.1 bn | 3.1 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 137.9 m | 143.0 m | esef· 23 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 409.0 m | 445.9 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 643.7 m | 627.7 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -234.6 m ≈ | -181.8 m ≈ | esef· 15 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -794.9 m | -683.2 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 791.9 m | 635.7 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 31.6 m | 6.3 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 6.4 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 24.81 – 38.27 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E24.81 – 38.27 (Mid 31.71)17 companies used · median multiple 14.4x · quartiles 11.3x – 17.4x0EV1.L, ABDN.L, ABF.L, AIRE.L, AJB.L, ALFA.L, AMIF.L, APTD.L, ASHM.L, AUTO.L, BAB.L, BAG.L, BATS.L, BBY.L, BCG.L, BKG.L, BME.L
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 8.8% | 29 (vs peers) | 18% |
| Net margin · Quality | 4.4% | 37 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -57.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.7x | 18 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.9x | 88 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 20.3x | 28 (vs peers) | 18% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -2.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.1% | 1 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet46/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality23/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial1/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation15/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
METLEN ENERGY & METALS PLC (MTLN.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 7.1 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth 25.1%; net margin 4.4%; ROE 10.5%.
The estimated value range is 24.81–38.27 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 31.71 EUR, the price of 44.56 EUR leaves a potential of -28.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -40.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 1.9x
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 8.8%
- FCF conversion: -57.8%
- Interest coverage: 2.7x
- P/E (TTM): 20.3x
- FCF yield: -2.9%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.1%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| MTLN.LMetlen Energy & Metals PLC | 6.4 bn | 20.3 | 10.5% | 4.4% | +25.1% | +1% / unavailable |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MTLN.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 29.13 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 51.26 Total return 15% · Per year 15% | 76.89 Total return 73% · Per year 73% |
| 3 years | 34.55 Total return -22% · Per year -8% | 67.79 Total return 52% · Per year 15% | 110.72 Total return 148% · Per year 35% |
| 5 years | 40.98 Total return -8% · Per year -2% | 89.65 Total return 101% · Per year 15% | 159.44 Total return 258% · Per year 29% |
- Exit P/E± 16.95
- Net margin± 11.86
- Annual revenue growth± 8.85
- Annual dilution± 1.00
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
METLEN is an integrated energy and metals group, the largest independent fully integrated utility in Greece, with activities in power generation and supply, renewables and aluminium. In 2025 it moved its primary listing to London, while its medium-term profitability target remained central to the strategy amid energy volatility. Turnover reached 7107 million EUR and EBITDA 753 million EUR 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Integration of energy and metals provides natural hedges and flexibility in volatile periods, while leadership in the Greek power market supports revenues.
- The group has an extensive renewables portfolio and technical capabilities in complex projects, supporting long-term growth.
- The primary London listing and FTSE 100 inclusion increased the group's visibility and investor base.
Weaknesses
- The significant fall in EBITDA in 2025 shows how sensitive results are to market conditions.
- A high level of net debt could limit financial flexibility if earnings remain under pressure.
- Dependence on the Greek energy market exposes the group to local regulation and economic conditions.
Opportunities
- Rising demand for storage, electrification and data centres could support expansion of renewable capacity.
- Development of critical raw materials and aluminium recycling could open new revenue sources.
- Infrastructure and concessions activities in Greece and abroad could add projects with controlled returns.
Threats
- Geopolitical conflicts and disruptions in energy supply could raise costs and volatility.
- Restrictive trade policies could affect supply chains and metal exports.
- Volatile carbon allowance prices could affect the operating costs of production.
Risks
- Energy price volatilityhigh
Swings in power and gas prices, amplified by Middle East conflicts, can affect margins in generation and supply.
- Aluminium price volatilitymedium
Aluminium prices could fall sharply after a peak, which could reduce revenues in the metals division.
- Debt levelmedium
The group's leverage could limit financial flexibility if EBITDA remains below expectations.
- Project execution riskmedium
Delays or budget overruns in renewables, alumina and gallium projects could reduce investment returns.
- Regulatory and environmental risklow
Changes in climate policy and the European emissions trading system could increase compliance costs.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If aluminium prices and transition-driven energy demand hold, margins could recover toward the medium-term profitability target.
- Integration of energy and metals and leadership in Greece could dampen the impact of volatility on results.
- Growth of the renewables portfolio and project backlog could support revenues over the longer term.
What would break the thesis
- The recent fall in EBITDA shows that results can be seriously affected by market conditions.
- High debt could limit investment if revenues do not grow enough.
- Dependence on geopolitical conflicts and energy prices could keep uncertainty elevated for longer.
What to watch
- EBITDA trajectory against the target of about 2 billion EUR2026
- Net debt level and leverage ratioQ1 2027
- Completion timeline for alumina, gallium and recycling projects2027
- Pace of renewable asset monetisation under the rotation modelnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
METLEN Energy & Metals plc is an integrated energy and metals group based in Greece, combining thermal generation, renewable projects, energy trading and supply with the aluminium value chain. The strategy The Third Era – Progress in Motion aims to strengthen core businesses, expand into critical raw materials and recycling, and grow infrastructure and concessions 1. In 2025 the group reported turnover of 7107 million EUR and EBITDA of 753 million EUR, a 30.29% decline in EBITDA 1.
The integrated model lets the group offset price volatility, since energy and metals operations act as natural hedges for each other. The group said managing volatility relied on timely hedging, cost discipline and this integrated model 1.
The 2025 annual report also describes total investments of 687 million EUR, a renewables portfolio of about 12 GW and a project backlog of 2.6 billion EUR, metrics that underpin the group's growth ambitions 1.
Segments
Energy
The energy division combines efficient thermal plants, renewable assets, trading and supply. The group reached a 21.4% electricity supply market share in Greece, corresponding to slightly more than 10 TWh 1. It is developing a 1.5 GW solar portfolio in Greece and has announced BESS storage projects 1.
Market context
Energy markets stayed under pressure in 2025 and early 2026 due to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, disruptions on shipping routes and rising oil and gas prices. Aluminium prices swung between 2,300 and 2,900 dollars per tonne in 2025 and reached a multi-year high in early 2026 1.
The Greek economy grew 2.1% in 2025, above the eurozone average, and the Bank of Greece projects steady growth through 2027, supported by consumption, investment and EU recovery funds 1.
Trends
- Energy price volatilitymixed
Sharp rises in energy and gas prices linked to conflicts could support production revenues, but could also raise procurement costs and supply risk.
- Aluminium pricestailwind
Aluminium reached a multi-year high, supported by supply constraints and demand from energy transition sectors, which could improve the group's margins.
- Energy transition and electrificationtailwind
Rising demand for renewables, storage, electrification and data centres supports the group's capacity expansion if project delivery stays on schedule.
- Geopolitical tensions and trade policyheadwind
Protectionist trade policies and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine have raised global uncertainty, which could affect supply chains and industrial demand.
Competitive position
The group competes in the Greek and Southeast European energy markets with other suppliers and producers, and in metals with European aluminium and alumina producers. The source provided does not name competitors explicitly, so the list below reflects only categories that can be inferred from the document.
- Public Power Corporation
A major player in the Greek power market; the source provided does not detail its relative position.
- Regional energy suppliers in Southeast Europe
Companies active in the same supply and trading area; the source does not name them.
- European aluminium producers
Rivals in primary and recycled aluminium; the source does not list specific companies.
- Renewable project developers
Competition for solar, wind and storage projects, where the group uses an asset rotation model.
News & filings
In the press
- METLEN Signs Five-Year US LNG Supply Deal With ShellGreek Reporter (GR, EN) · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Metlen, Shell Sign Five-Year LNG Supply AgreementTo Vima International (GR, EN) · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Primii 300 MW din proiectele de stocare în baterii ale joint venture-ului PPC-Metlen din Europa de Sud-Est ar urma să fie gata în T1 2027Economedia · 23 Oct 2026 · RO
- Grecii își unesc forțele și pentru România. PPC și Metlen lansează în primăvară primul val de baterii pentru stocarea energieiProfit.ro · 22 Oct 2026 · RO
- Comisia Europeană a aprobat înființarea unei firme mixte de către PPC și MetlenAgerpres · 26 May 2026 · RO
- Înfiinţarea unei firme mixte de către companiile grecești PPC şi Metlen, aprobată de Comisia Europeană / Vor dezvolta un proiect de stocare a energiei de 1,5 GW în România, Bulgaria și ItaliaEconomedia · 26 May 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202515 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202523 Oct 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / METLEN Energy & Metals plc · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.