olivLaw · European equity research
Nel ASA NEL.OL
Norway · Euronext Oslo Børs · ISIN NO0010081235 · Vertical: Listed companies from Norway
Nel ASA is a Norwegian maker of electrolysers for renewable hydrogen, offering alkaline and PEM technologies aimed at hard-to-electrify industries such as steel, ammonia and refining. The company is going through a slowdown, with lower order intake and delayed projects, while it keeps a solid cash balance and automated production capacity of about 1.5 GW for when demand returns. Total revenue for 2025 was NOK 963 million.
At the close of 03 Nov 2026, Nel ASA (NEL.OL) stock was 1.91 NOK (−1.04% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.5 bn NOK, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 0.83, 52-week range 1.91–3.85 NOK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 38.0
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.88 – 2.12
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.11 · band width 11.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.04 / 2.31
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.03 / -0.03
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −8.4% | −1.0% | −7.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −11.2% | −3.9% | −7.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −43.8% | +7.2% | −51.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | −14.4% | +6.6% | −21.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | −13.7% | +9.1% | −22.7 pp | −3.8% |
| 3 years | −78.0% | +47.9% | −126.0 pp | +18.7% |
| 5 years | −90.0% | +43.3% | −133.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 963.1 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +3.0% | −30.7% |
| Net income | -855.2 m | -244.3 m | -1.3 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.52 | -0.15 | -0.70 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -63.4% | -17.6% | -131.4% |
| Free cash flow | -1.2 bn | -768.9 m | -398.0 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.6 bn NOK
- Financial debt
- unavailable NOK
- Net debt
- unavailable NOK
- Equity
- 3.9 bn NOK
- Total assets
- 5.0 bn NOK
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 3.91x
- ROE
- -28.4%
- ROA
- -22.5%
- FCF margin
- -41.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (NOK)
Margins
Income statement · NOK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 963.1 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | -443.5 m | -389.4 m | -1.4 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 170.3 m | 216.5 m | 290.5 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -273.3 m ≈ | -172.9 m ≈ | -1.1 bn ≈ | esef· 21 Oct 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 300.8 m | 6.8 m | 41.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -574.3 m | -264.2 m | -1.3 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | -8.2 m | -6.6 m | -31.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | -855.2 m | -244.3 m | -1.3 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.52 | -0.15 | -0.70 | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.00 | esef· 21 Oct 2026derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · NOK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 3.4 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.6 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 704.0 m | 531.7 m | 918.8 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 5.4 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.0 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 375.3 m | 411.8 m | 61.4 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 7.9 bn | 6.3 bn | 5.0 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 22.5 m | 0 | — | esef· 08 May 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.3 bn | 1.0 bn | 764.7 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.7 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.0 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 6.2 bn | 5.0 bn | 3.9 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · NOK
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -669.7 m | -241.6 m | -252.8 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 573.6 m | 527.3 m | 145.2 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -1.2 bn ≈ | -768.9 m ≈ | -398.0 m ≈ | esef· 21 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -646.8 m | -581.9 m | -305.4 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 1.5 bn | -666.0 m | 303.1 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 0 | 625.4 m | 0 | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 3.5 bn NOK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
31% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -131.4% | 13 (vs peers) | 20% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -33.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.9x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -11.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 27% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial13/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
NEL ASA (NEL.OL). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 963.1 m NOK in 2025; YoY growth -30.7%; net margin -131.4%; ROE -28.4%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 3.9x
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -131.4%
- Interest coverage: -33.3x
- FCF yield: -11.5%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Norway · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKER.OLAker Asa | 83.2 bn | 21.2 | 7.9% | 21.4% | +42.5% | +42% / +66% |
| AFG.OLAf Gruppen Asa | 21.6 bn | 19.9 | 39.7% | 3.4% | +4.4% | +9% / +70% |
| ELK.OLElkem Asa | 19.6 bn | 40.2 | 1.9% | 2.7% | −15.7% | +12% / +77% |
| ATEA.OLAtea Asa | 18.7 bn | 21.7 | 19.7% | 2.3% | +8.1% | +13% / +38% |
| AKSO.OLAker Solutions Asa | 17.4 bn | 6.8 | 22.5% | 4.1% | +19.2% | +18% / −12% |
| AUSS.OLAustevoll Seafood Asa | 16.4 bn | 36.5 | 1.6% | 1.1% | +11.1% | −8% / +9% |
| BRG.OLBorregaard Asa | 15.2 bn | 24.5 | 11.4% | 8.0% | +1.3% | −20% / −11% |
| BONHR.OLBonheur ASA | 11.2 bn | 7.9 | 17.1% | 11.4% | −10.8% | +18% / +45% |
| AFK.OLArendals Fossekompani Asa | 10.3 bn | — | -2.3% | -3.1% | −14.9% | +38% / +30% |
| B2I.OLB2 Impact Asa | 8.5 bn | 13.9 | 11.0% | 16.4% | +2.6% | +36% / +229% |
| AKVA.OLAkva Group Asa | 5.8 bn | 31.3 | 13.7% | 4.2% | +24.4% | +74% / +153% |
| BOUV.OLBouvet Asa | 5.5 bn | 15.6 | 80.7% | 9.2% | −0.2% | −11% / −7% |
| ELMRA.OLElmera Group Asa | 5.1 bn | 32.0 | 10.5% | 1.3% | −0.9% | +32% / +98% |
| CLOUD.OLCloudberry Clean Energy Asa | 3.8 bn | 59.1 | 1.3% | 13.1% | +34.0% | −9% / +23% |
| ABG.OLAbg Sundal Collier Holding Asa | 3.7 bn | 10.8 | 34.9% | 16.8% | +12.4% | −12% / +21% |
| NEL.OLNel Asa | 3.5 bn | — | -28.4% | -131.4% | −30.7% | −20% / −76% |
| ANDF.OLAndfjord Salmon Group As | 2.3 bn | — | -5.7% | -12,770.4% | +328.9% | −14% / −6% |
| BMA.OLByggma Asa | 1.7 bn | — | -25.3% | -11.9% | −2.5% | +68% / +20% |
| APR.OLAppear Asa | 1.4 bn | 10.9 | 30.1% | 16.1% | +32.3% | −51% / unavailable |
| AZT.OLArcticzymes Technologies Asa | 1.1 bn | 114.2 | 2.9% | 8.6% | +7.9% | −4% / −45% |
| CAPSL.OLCapsol Technologies Asa | 868.8 m | — | -89.4% | -114.8% | −25.0% | −34% / −67% |
| BOR.OLBorgestad Asa | 572.4 m | 37.4 | 2.1% | 1.4% | −3.0% | −4% / +46% |
| ARR.OLArribatec Group Asa | 235.6 m | 4.8 | 22.1% | 9.3% | +15.7% | −33% / −55% |
| DELIA.OLDellia Group Asa | 72.5 m | 1.5 | 22.6% | 7.7% | +140.0% | −62% / unavailable |
| ABTEC.OLAqua Bio Technology Asa | 11.9 m | 0.1 | — | 7,297.7% | −87.2% | −81% / −97% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NEL.OL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (NOK)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Nel ASA is a Norwegian maker of electrolysers for renewable hydrogen, offering alkaline and PEM technologies aimed at hard-to-electrify industries such as steel, ammonia and refining. The company is going through a slowdown, with lower order intake and delayed projects, while it keeps a solid cash balance and automated production capacity of about 1.5 GW for when demand returns. Total revenue for 2025 was NOK 963 million 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a long track record of delivering working electrolyser systems, a diversified alkaline and PEM portfolio and gigawatt-scale automated manufacturing 1.
- A solid cash balance allows the company to fund operations and technology development during the slowdown 1.
- Partnerships with large companies such as General Motors, Reliance, Samsung E&A and Saipem support industrial and technological development 1.
Weaknesses
- The company depends on a limited number of third-party suppliers for key components, and some components still have a single source 1.
- The whole business is not yet profitable, with profitability reported only for segments in quarters with solid capacity utilisation 1.
- Growth requires investment ahead of actual demand, which puts pressure on capital allocation and on showing a viable business model 1.
Opportunities
- Demand from hard-to-electrify industries such as steel, ammonia and refining could grow as projects mature 1.
- If public support instruments are applied, smaller near-term projects could be captured quickly by the company 1.
- New technology platforms could lower investment costs and widen the applicability of hydrogen in new projects 1.
Threats
- Alternative technologies under development could make renewable hydrogen less relevant in the future 1.
- If customers fail to meet their growth plans or contracts, sales to them could be adversely affected 1.
- Global trade barriers and the risk of amended subsidies could raise costs and uncertainty for projects 1.
Risks
- Demand and order intakehigh
Project delays and cancellations could keep order intake low and slow growth, especially if government support falls behind 1.
- Customer dependencemedium
Growth depends on winning new customers and keeping existing ones, and failure of their plans could affect sales 1.
- Supply chainmedium
The company relies on a few suppliers for key components, and a disruption could affect deliveries 1.
- Technology riskmedium
In a phase of fast growth, the risk of product failure and technology obsolescence is higher than in mature industries 1.
- Dependence on public policylow
Delayed or reduced government support could slow the development of the renewable hydrogen sector 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand from hard-to-electrify industries returns and projects reach final investment decision, the company's technology leadership and production capacity could let it benefit quickly from growth 1.
- A solid cash balance and cost adjustments could let the company get through the slowdown without abandoning its growth strategy 1.
- Next-generation platforms could lower investment costs and widen the addressable market if performance and costs are confirmed at scale 1.
What would break the thesis
- If delays and cancellations persist, order intake could stay below expectations for a long time and group profitability could be postponed 1.
- International competition and the advantage some Asian players hold in installations could pressure pricing and the company's position 1.
- If alternative technologies advance or political support weakens, the relevance of renewable hydrogen as a solution could decline 1.
What to watch
- Development of order intake and of projects reaching final investment decision2026
- Quarterly results on capacity utilisation and segment profitabilityQ1 2026
- Implementation of public support schemes, including the US 45V tax credit and the EU Renewable Hydrogen Bank2026
- Progress of next-generation technologies under operating conditions at scalenext annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Nel develops, produces and delivers technology for renewable hydrogen production through electrolysis, using both alkaline and proton exchange membrane (PEM) technologies. Customers are industrial clients and energy providers in a B2B model, with main markets in Europe and North America and opportunities also in Asia, the Middle East and Australia 1. The company works with EPC contractors and project developers so it can focus on its core technology. Headquarters are in Oslo, and manufacturing is in Norway and in Wallingford, Connecticut, United States 1.
The main operating assets are in Norway and the United States, where the company has electrolyser manufacturing sites 1. Nel had 346 employees at year-end 2025 1. Strategy emphasises reducing capital expenditure and increasing efficiency so that hydrogen projects can be realised more easily without large public subsidies 1.
Nel describes its business model as enabling the transition to a low-carbon energy system and decarbonising sectors that are hard to electrify 1. Research and development is central, and the company is investing in next-generation PEM and alkaline technologies, with support from the EU Innovation Fund for next-generation alkaline technology 1.
Segments
Alkaline and PEM electrolysers
Nel manufactures and sells alkaline and PEM electrolysers, which are its two core technology platforms. The company says its diversified portfolio and automated GW-scale production are differentiating factors against competitors 1.
Local production, defence and niche applications
Besides large projects, Nel has for years served local hydrogen production, defence and other specialty segments, which it considers a viable business 1. The company has reported segment profitability in quarters with solid capacity utilisation 1.
Project delivery and energy storage
The company collaborates with EPC contractors and renewable energy developers to deliver integrated hydrogen solutions, and its technology can also serve grid balancing and energy storage 1.
Market context
The Hydrogen Council reports that the clean hydrogen project pipeline grew to more than 1,700 projects in 2025, of which over 500 are in operation, under construction or have passed final investment decision, and committed investments exceed 110 billion USD 1. At the same time, the IEA finds deployment has been slower than expected, with cancellations, delays and fewer final investment decisions, and low-emission hydrogen made up less than one percent of global supply 1.
Demand remains concentrated in established sectors such as refining and fertiliser production, while large projects in emerging markets largely stayed in early planning 1. Public policy such as the US 45V tax credit and the second round of the EU Renewable Hydrogen Bank matters for investment decisions 1.
Trends
- Project delays and cancellationsheadwind
Delays and cancellations have lowered order intake across the industry and at Nel, which puts pressure on the company's growth pace 1. Nel expects near- and mid-term projects to be smaller than anticipated a few years ago 1.
- Public policy supporttailwind
Finalised support schemes and targeted auctions can improve visibility for investments, and Nel considers political incentive schemes important for developing the industry 1. If public support holds, projects could more easily reach final investment decision 1.
- Global competition and costsheadwind
Global competition has intensified, with China expanding its lead in electrolyser installations, which could affect pricing and competitive position 1. Global trade barriers could increase the cost of green hydrogen plants 1.
- Next-generation technology and efficiencymixed
Next-generation platforms aim to reduce capital expenditure and raise efficiency, which could make projects more viable and less reliant on subsidies 1. However, they still need commercial validation and a period of risk mitigation 1.
Competitive position
Nel competes with other electrolyser manufacturers, and the market is split between alkaline and PEM technologies. The company argues its decades of delivering working systems, diversified portfolio and automated production are advantages against rivals 1. It also warns that competitors gaining advantages in alternative electrolyser technologies could affect the group's position 1.
- Other electrolyser manufacturers in Europe and Asia
The analysed sources do not name direct competitors, but they note that players in China have expanded their position in electrolyser installations 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202521 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Nel ASA · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.