olivLaw · European equity research
Nexity NXI.PA
France · Euronext Paris · ISIN FR0010112524 · Vertical: Listed companies from France
Nexity is a French real estate developer covering development, promotion and operation, with a focus on urban regeneration. Its order book, at 3.9 billion euros at the end of 2025, and its programme to convert 74 Carrefour sites make the company relevant in a still fragile property market.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Nexity (NXI.PA) stock was 4.16 EUR (+0.29% on the day), with market capitalisation 230.7 m EUR, dividend yield 60.04%, beta 0.92, 52-week range 3.90–10.01 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 33.6
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 3.86 – 4.98
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.27 · band width 25.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 5.06 / 7.35
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.28 / -0.29
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −8.0% | −0.6% | −7.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −40.8% | −4.2% | −36.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | −53.1% | +4.3% | −57.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | −53.6% | +7.5% | −61.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | −52.5% | +9.9% | −62.5 pp | −6.8% |
| 3 years | −69.8% | +49.8% | −119.7 pp | −15.9% |
| 5 years | −89.7% | +42.8% | −132.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.0 bn | 3.3 bn | 2.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −15.9% | −15.4% |
| Net income | 19.2 m | -62.2 m | -188.4 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −424.0% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 0.33 | -1.12 | -3.40 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −439.4% | unavailable |
| net % | 0.5% | -1.9% | -6.7% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 421.5 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 397.6 m EUR
- Net debt
- -23.9 m EUR
- Equity
- 1.6 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 5.5 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.25x
- Current ratio
- 1.16x
- ROE
- -10.8%
- ROA
- -3.2%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.0 bn | 3.3 bn | 2.8 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 218.1 m | -8.4 m | -113.4 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 116.0 m | 152.0 m | 112.8 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 50.8 m | -73.2 m | -64.5 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 19.2 m | -62.2 m | -188.4 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.33 | -1.12 | -3.40 | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.50 | — | — | esef· 17 Apr 2025verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 715.9 m | 667.6 m | 421.5 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.9 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 4.2 bn | 3.2 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 81.5 m | 87.9 m | 95.9 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 107.2 m | 101.6 m | 92.4 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 8.5 bn | 6.5 bn | 5.5 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.8 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 581.8 m | 564.3 m | 397.6 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 3.3 bn | 2.7 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.6 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 54.9 m | 55.6 m | 55.4 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 230.7 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
27% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 34.00 – 46.36 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)34.00 – 46.36 (Mid 39.23)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -5.7% | 10 (vs peers) | 38% |
| Net margin · Quality | -6.7% | 28 (vs peers) | 23% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -1.0x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 23% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.2x | 30 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet12/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality17/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
NEXITY (NXI.PA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.8 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth -15.4%; net margin -6.7%; ROE -11.0%.
The estimated value range is 34.00–46.36 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 39.23 EUR, the price of 4.16 EUR leaves a potential of 842.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 89.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -5.7%
- Net margin: -6.7%
- Interest coverage: -1.0x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from France · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI.PAL'air Liquide Societe Anonyme Pour L'etude Et L'exploitation Des Procedes Georges Claude | 109.3 bn | 33.2 | 12.9% | 12.2% | −2.0% | +26% / +32% |
| AC.PAAccor | 13.8 bn | 30.7 | 9.6% | 8.0% | +0.6% | +6% / +56% |
| ADP.PAAeroports De Paris | 11.7 bn | 34.1 | 7.8% | 5.6% | +12.1% | −7% / +4% |
| AKE.PAArkema | 7.1 bn | 115.4 | 0.9% | 0.7% | −5.0% | +12% / −37% |
| ALO.PAAlstom | 5.8 bn | 18.3 | 3.1% | 1.7% | +3.7% | −51% / −4% |
| AF.PAAir France - Klm | 4.3 bn | 13.6 | — | 1.0% | +4.8% | +20% / +9% |
| ATE.PAAlten | 3.1 bn | 29.5 | 4.8% | 2.6% | −1.1% | +33% / −29% |
| BB.PASociete Bic | 2.7 bn | 31.3 | 5.0% | 4.1% | −4.8% | +32% / +5% |
| ANTIN.PAAntin Infrastructure Partners | 1.4 bn | 13.0 | 21.9% | 36.6% | −8.1% | −24% / −35% |
| 74SW.PA74software | 792.7 m | 20.9 | 8.9% | 8.5% | +44.8% | −13% / +41% |
| AUB.PAAubay | 667.4 m | 17.8 | 13.6% | 6.3% | +11.3% | +3% / +45% |
| ASY.PAAssystem | 507.1 m | 69.9 | 2.5% | 1.1% | +7.4% | −19% / −18% |
| ATO.PAAtos Se | 483.0 m | — | -23,400.0% | -17.5% | −16.5% | −45% / −94% |
| ARAMI.PAAramis Group | 298.8 m | 15.0 | 10.0% | 0.8% | +6.3% | −33% / −16% |
| ARVEN.PAArverne Group | 246.1 m | — | -14.0% | -115.3% | +27.0% | +20% / −35% |
| NXI.PANexity | 230.7 m | — | -11.0% | -6.7% | −15.4% | −55% / −70% |
| BGO.PACompagnie Chargeurs Invest | 189.4 m | — | -8.6% | -5.7% | −2.9% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALCIS.PACatering International & Services | 145.0 m | 28.4 | 9.3% | 1.9% | +5.8% | +39% / +107% |
| ALCGM.PACegedim | 144.6 m | — | -2.6% | -1.2% | +10.9% | −26% / −49% |
| ATEME.PAAteme | 144.0 m | 151.3 | 2.8% | 1.0% | +2.2% | +82% / +77% |
| ALHEX.PAHexaom | 144.0 m | 6.7 | 9.9% | 2.2% | +13.1% | −32% / +7% |
| ALBON.PACompagnie Lebon | 111.7 m | 16.5 | 4.2% | 8.8% | −17.9% | +6% / +8% |
| ALHYF.PALhyfe | 75.8 m | — | -33.4% | -570.5% | +287.2% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALFER.PASergeferrari Group | 61.5 m | 11.5 | 5.1% | 1.5% | +7.4% | −33% / −27% |
| ABEO.PAAbeo | 60.8 m | 7.3 | 6.9% | 3.0% | +12.6% | −13% / −54% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NXI.PA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Nexity is a French real estate developer covering development, promotion and operation, with a focus on urban regeneration. Its order book, at 3.9 billion euros at the end of 2025, and its programme to convert 74 Carrefour sites make the company relevant in a still fragile property market.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has a substantial backlog and full integration of activities, from development to operation. Geographic coverage and portfolio diversification are strengths highlighted by the source document.
- The partnership with a large retailer provides long-term projects and a planned housing volume. The commitment to urban regeneration aligns with public policy.
- The company keeps a moderate risk policy and avoids speculative activities, which may limit losses in downturns.
Weaknesses
- Only part of the backlog is secured by signed sales, leaving uncertainty over future revenue. Dependence on local permits slows projects.
- Activity is almost entirely French, concentrating risk in one market. The office segment faces weak demand and high vacancy.
- Conversion projects require upfront investment and complex negotiations with authorities, which may delay profitability.
Opportunities
- If the acceleration in permits after the elections materialises, the group could convert housing potential into revenue faster. Urban regeneration projects may also attract institutional clients.
- Demand for low-carbon and climate-resilient buildings could open new service offerings and modular or mixed-use projects.
- Renovating and converting existing buildings could partly replace new construction if demand shifts towards renovation.
Threats
- A drop in investment or higher interest rates could reduce sales and project values. Economic and political uncertainty could delay client decisions.
- Rising costs of low-carbon materials and technical constraints could compress margins. Extreme climate conditions could interrupt worksites.
- Planning limits and administrative delays could slow the whole project portfolio, especially the conversion projects.
Risks
- Exposure to the office markethigh
Weak demand and record vacancy in Ile-de-France could pressure revenue and values in the tertiary segment if occupier demand does not recover.
- Dependence on permitshigh
Delays in local procedures, including those caused by elections, could postpone deliveries and the conversion of potential into actual activity.
- Backlog coveragemedium
Only part of the backlog is secured by signed sales, leaving exposure to market conditions in the coming period.
- Physical climate risksmedium
Heat, flooding and drought could affect worksites and the comfort of delivered buildings, with extra adaptation costs.
- Transition costslow
Rising costs of low-carbon materials and technical constraints could squeeze margins if they cannot be passed on to clients.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- A stable backlog and a large volume of permits obtained in 2025 could support steady activity in the coming period. If projects expected after the elections accelerate, revenue could rise faster.
- The Carrefour partnership, with potential above 2 billion euros, could become a major growth source. Urban regeneration projects align with regulatory trends.
- The integrated model from development to operation could provide stability and diversification if the segments perform in different economic cycles.
What would break the thesis
- Only part of the backlog is secured by sales, and the office market remains weak. If demand does not recover, revenue could stay below expectations.
- Dependence on local permits and financing conditions could delay projects, while transition costs could reduce margins.
- Concentration on France exposes the company to local macroeconomic and political risks without geographic diversification to offset them.
What to watch
- Evolution of the backlog and the share secured by signed salesQ1 2027
- Pace of permit filings and approvals, including Carrefour projects2027
- Vacancy and demand in the Ile-de-France office marketnext 10-K
- Trends in construction costs and climate adaptation measures2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Nexity, based in France, runs land development, property promotion and operation, covering both housing and office and other professional buildings. The group is reorienting its model towards urban regeneration, meaning the transformation of already built land into mixed projects. Its activity is almost entirely French, and its risks are tied to the local market and urban planning rules.
The 3.9 billion euro backlog, stable versus 30 September 2025, represents roughly one and a half years of activity. Only 48% of it is secured by signed sales. The group obtained about 14,000 building permits in 2025, which according to the document supports its development in 2026.
The Carrefour partnership covers 74 sites, with a plan for housing, retail, offices and hotels, and the first permit applications were filed in Q4 2024. Potential activity outside land development equals 42,000 dwellings. The company links these projects to its urban regeneration strategy.
Segments
Promotion and development
This segment develops housing and mixed projects on existing land. The Carrefour partnership, with estimated lifetime revenue of over 2 billion euros over about ten years, is the main announced growth source, but its contributions are not yet included in the reported potential.
Offices and commercial property
This segment operates in the office market, where demand in Ile-de-France fell in 2025 and vacancy reached a record. The group depends on a recovery in investment and on its ability to enhance existing assets.
Operation
This segment manages residences and services, but the document does not provide detailed figures for it in the excerpt available. Its analysis should be completed with financial data from the rest of the annual report.
Market context
Commercial real estate investment in France rose 8% in 2025 to 13.7 billion euros, but the market remains concentrated on a few large deals. Ile-de-France offices saw their weakest demand in years, with 1,638,000 square metres let and a 10.2% vacancy rate, which limits prices and project pace.
Housing depends on building permits and financing conditions, and municipalities delayed some files because of the March 2026 local elections. The company expects an acceleration after these elections, if the macroeconomic environment does not deteriorate.
Trends
- Urban regenerationtailwind
Pressure to limit urban sprawl favours projects on already built land, where Nexity focuses its strategy. This trend could support the conversion portfolio, but it requires permits and local negotiation.
- Regulation and energy standardsmixed
Stricter construction rules impose higher energy performance and thermal comfort. These can raise construction costs but may favour companies with technical know-how.
- Physical climate risksheadwind
The group's analysis shows extreme events such as heat and flooding can affect worksites and delivered buildings. A significant share of the analysed sites is exposed to heat, which could raise adaptation costs.
- Office demandheadwind
Renegotiations and cautious occupiers have reduced demand for new office space, and the segment remains weak. This trend could persist if economic uncertainty does not ease.
Competitive position
The document provided does not explicitly name the group's competitors. Nexity states, however, that its model integrates all the expertise needed for businesses, from design to operation, which differentiates it from developers focused on a single stage.
- Other French property developers
Competitors in the French residential and office promotion market are not named in the analysed excerpt and cannot be verified from the sources.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202515 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202417 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Nexity · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.