olivLaw · European equity research
Ocado Group plc OCDO.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00B3MBS747 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Ocado Group supplies robotic technology for online grocery through the Ocado Smart Platform and operates indirectly through Ocado Retail in the UK. In FY25 the company reset some North American partnerships and announced cost reductions, as it aims to become cash flow positive in FY26. 72 million OSP orders were delivered in fiscal 2025.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Ocado Group plc (OCDO.L) stock was 3.35 GBP (−0.30% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.8 bn GBP, P/E 6.9 on diluted EPS of 0.49 GBP over the last 12 months, beta 1.00, 52-week range 1.59–3.49 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 63.2
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 2.87 – 3.54
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.71 · band width 21.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.68 / 2.20
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.18 / 0.20
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +27.7% | −0.6% | +28.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | +58.9% | −4.2% | +63.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +69.7% | +4.3% | +65.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | +41.9% | +7.5% | +34.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +60.7% | +9.9% | +50.8 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | −36.8% | +49.8% | −86.6 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | −80.6% | +42.8% | −123.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 3.8, median 3.8, max 3.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +8.2% | +13.8% |
| Net income | -314.0 m | -336.2 m | 405.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.38 | -0.41 | 0.49 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -28.0% | -27.7% | 29.3% |
| Free cash flow | -249.1 m | 72.1 m | 123.0 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Nov 2025
- Cash
- 740.0 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 1.5 bn GBP
- Net debt
- 746.2 m GBP
- Equity
- 1.6 bn GBP
- Total assets
- 4.3 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.95x
- Current ratio
- 2.00x
- ROE
- 29.7%
- ROA
- 9.6%
- FCF margin
- 8.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | -222.3 m | -336.6 m | -271.2 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 83.6 m | 98.6 m | 146.7 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -279.7 m | -339.8 m | -377.6 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | -16.9 m | -200.0 k | 14.5 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -314.0 m | -336.2 m | 405.2 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.38 | -0.41 | 0.49 | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 884.8 m | 732.5 m | 740.0 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 375.4 m | 186.4 m | 142.3 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 127.1 m | 39.8 m | 31.9 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 936.2 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.8 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 158.6 m | 158.2 m | 147.8 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 461.3 m | 496.5 m | 517.8 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 4.4 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.3 bn | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 468.4 m | 246.6 m | 261.9 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 2.6 m | 200.0 k | 56.0 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 576.8 m | 324.9 m | 469.2 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.5 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 816.9 m | 820.0 m | 825.3 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 82.2 m | 268.9 m | 341.7 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 331.3 m | 196.8 m | 218.7 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -249.1 m ≈ | 72.1 m ≈ | 123.0 m ≈ | esef· 10 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -500.1 m | -353.7 m | -382.6 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -10.1 m | -24.3 m | 14.8 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.8 bn GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
52% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -11.0% | 17 (vs peers) | 20% |
| Net margin · Quality | 29.3% | 83 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 30.4% | 1 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -1.8x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.0x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 6.9x | 89 (vs peers) | 20% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 4.4% | 56 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality30/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation74/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
OCADO GROUP PLC (OCDO.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-11-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.4 bn GBP in 2025; YoY growth 13.8%; net margin 29.3%; ROE 29.5%.
The estimated value range is 4.49–6.99 GBP per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 5.66 GBP, the price of 3.35 GBP leaves a potential of 69.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 40.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 29.3%
- Current ratio: 2.0x
- P/E (TTM): 6.9x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -11.0%
- FCF conversion: 30.4%
- Interest coverage: -1.8x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| OCDO.LOcado Group PLC | 2.8 bn | 6.9 | 29.5% | 29.3% | +13.8% | +82% / −44% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for OCDO.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 2.18 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 3.84 Total return 15% · Per year 15% | 5.77 Total return 72% · Per year 72% |
| 3 years | 2.53 Total return -24% · Per year -9% | 4.97 Total return 48% · Per year 14% | 8.13 Total return 143% · Per year 34% |
| 5 years | 2.93 Total return -12% · Per year -3% | 6.43 Total return 92% · Per year 14% | 11.47 Total return 242% · Per year 28% |
- Exit P/E± 1.24
- Net margin± 0.87
- Annual revenue growth± 0.66
- Annual dilution± 0.07
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Ocado Group supplies robotic technology for online grocery through the Ocado Smart Platform and operates indirectly through Ocado Retail in the UK. In FY25 the company reset some North American partnerships and announced cost reductions, as it aims to become cash flow positive in FY26. 72 million OSP orders were delivered in fiscal 2025 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a proven technology platform with operations in several countries and over 25 years of trading history at Ocado Retail.
- Ocado Retail was one of the fastest growers in the UK sector, with high on-time, in-full delivery performance.
- Re:Imagined technologies and Ocado Swift Router are active across multiple sites and have improved productivity.
Weaknesses
- Some North American sites have had lower utilisation than expected, requiring a reset of baseline capacity.
- Research, development and support costs have remained high, and the company plans to reduce them significantly.
- Reliance on a small number of large partners can make revenue sensitive to their strategic decisions.
Opportunities
- Online grocery markets are larger than in 2017, which could open new contracts if retailers adopt automated solutions.
- Expansion beyond grocery through Ocado Intelligent Automation could bring revenue from apparel and general logistics.
- Store Based Automation could attract clients who cannot afford a fully automated fulfilment centre.
Threats
- Retailers may build in-house solutions or turn to competitors, and the end of exclusivity could intensify competitive pressure.
- Rising energy costs and environmental regulation could affect operating costs and investment in CFCs.
- Site closures by partners such as Kroger and Sobeys could reduce recurring revenue volumes.
Risks
- CFC network utilisationhigh
Lower volumes than planned at some North American sites could delay the recovery of investments and affect recurring revenue.
- Partner concentrationhigh
Revenue depends on decisions of a few large partners, and site closures or contract renegotiations could have a significant effect.
- Energy and climate costsmedium
Higher energy prices, cooling costs and carbon taxes could raise the operating costs of CFCs.
- Flood riskmedium
Two UK locations are exposed to flood risk, with annual costs the company estimates as material if the risk is not managed.
- Transition to electric vehicleslow
If electric vehicle technology is not available at a reasonable cost, the fleet and clients relying on it could lose competitiveness.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If partners that reduced volumes recover and online grocery markets keep growing, the company could benefit from a more stable base of recurring revenue.
- The planned cost reduction for FY27 could significantly improve profitability if delivered as the company estimates.
- The rapid growth of Ocado Retail and CFC productivity suggest the technology model can work at larger scale.
What would break the thesis
- The closure of sites in North America and Canada shows demand on some markets may be slower than estimated, which could limit growth.
- The end of exclusivity may let competitors enter partner markets more easily, which could pressure margins.
- If the positive cash flow goal for FY26 is not achieved, investor confidence could be affected.
What to watch
- Progress toward positive cash flowFY26
- Opening of CFCs in South Korea, Japan and the United StatesFY26
- Delivery of the total cash cost reductionFY27
- Utilisation of the CFC network and volumes of North American partnersnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Ocado Group plc, listed on the London Stock Exchange, has two main segments: Technology Solutions, which sells the OSP platform and customer fulfilment centres (CFCs) to grocery partners, and Ocado Logistics, which serves the UK operations of Ocado Retail. The business model relies on recurring fees for installed capacity, plus sales of new modules 1.
In fiscal 2025 the company aimed to raise utilisation across its CFC network and cut technology and support costs, a direction that includes rolling off part of its historic exclusivity in most partner markets. Ocado Intelligent Automation, the division serving apparel and general logistics, was consolidated with Ocado Solutions under a new Chief Revenue Officer 1.
Ocado Retail, the group's main UK client, grew its active customer base and, according to Kantar figures cited by the company, was the fastest-growing retailer in the sector for 12 consecutive months across 2024-2025 1.
Segments
Technology Solutions
Technology Solutions delivers the OSP platform and Re:Imagined technologies, including bots and Ocado Swift Router, to partners across several countries. International CFC network Eaches per Week growth reached 26% in FY25 1, and On-Grid Robotic Pick was live in 10 CFCs and Auto Frame Load in 12 1.
Market context
The group states that key markets have grown much larger than when it signed its first international partnership in 2017, with global online grocery at £8.1tn against £5.7tn today 1. Online penetration in OSP partner markets is forecast to rise substantially by 2029, and the compound annual growth rate of online grocery across 11 partner markets since 2017 has been 39.57% 1.
Minimum wage costs in OSP markets have risen, which could make automation more attractive to grocers if productivity keeps pace. Ocado offers solutions from automated fulfilment centres to the recently announced Store Based Automation module 1.
Trends
- Growth of online grocerytailwind
Online grocery is the fastest-growing channel in global retail, and the roll-off of exclusivity gives Ocado access to more markets. If this trend continues it could support new partnerships 1.
- Rising minimum wagestailwind
Higher minimum wages in OSP markets make automation more valuable to customers, provided the implementation costs are justified 1.
- Roll-off of exclusivity and network useheadwind
The withdrawal of exclusivity and the closure of some sites in the US and Canada show demand on some markets has been slower than expected, which could slow revenue growth 1.
- Climate policy and energy costsmixed
Emission rules such as CBAM and the diesel van ban may raise energy and transport costs, but they may also create opportunities for sustainable delivery solutions 1.
Competitive position
Ocado competes with other warehouse automation and online grocery fulfilment providers, as well as with clients that build in-house solutions. The company aims to maintain its edge through proven technology, operations at scale and lower deployment costs for partners 1.
In the UK, Ocado Retail competes with traditional supermarkets and other online retailers; its rapid growth could, however, shift competitors' positions over the medium term 1.
- KrogerKR
American Ocado partner with several CFCs in operation, which decided in 2025 to close some low-volume sites.
- AmazonAMZN
Global online retail and logistics operator competing with the online grocery fulfilment solutions used by Ocado partners.
- Sobeys
Canadian retailer and Ocado partner that closed a CFC in Calgary while continuing operations in Ontario and Quebec.
- Coles
Australian retailer and Ocado partner with solid volume growth through its CFCs.
News & filings
In the press
- JPMorgan ridică ținta de preț pentru acțiunile Ocado - www.goldring.roSurge — Google News · 20 Oct 2026 · RO
- Beaten-Down Ocado Shares Show Signs of Revival with 45% RallyBloomberg Markets · 14 Aug 2026 · EN
- Ocado chief says he won’t be a ‘puppet master’ amid apparent succession rowThe Guardian World · 16 Jul 2026 · RO
- Steiner Digs In at Ocado as Warehouse Tech Unit FaltersBloomberg Markets · 16 Jul 2026 · EN
- Ocado co-founder to step down as chief executive in 2028The Guardian World · 06 Jul 2026 · RO
- Ocado Says Co-Founder Tim Steiner to Step Down as CEO in 2028Bloomberg Markets · 06 Jul 2026 · EN
- Spotlight falls on Ocado boss Tim Steiner’s £100m in payoutsThe Guardian World · 28 Jun 2026 · RO
- Asda strikes deal to use Ocado software for home deliveries from next yearThe Guardian World · 29 May 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202510 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202417 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-11-30 (ESEF) · SEC / Ocado Group plc · 30 Nov 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.