olivLaw · European equity research
PageGroup plc PAGE.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB0030232317 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
PageGroup is a worldwide leader in specialist recruitment, operating in 34 countries through 123 offices. The company aims for £400m operating profit by 2030 in a difficult market, and its stated purpose is to change lives by providing access to decent work.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, PageGroup plc (PAGE.L) stock was 2.19 GBP (+0.00% on the day), with market capitalisation 682.2 m GBP, P/E 75.7 on diluted EPS of 0.03 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 7.85%, beta 0.85, 52-week range 1.03–2.42 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 58.6
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.86 – 2.27
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.81 · band width 20.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.11 / 1.69
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.03 / 0.02
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +3.8% | −0.6% | +4.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | +17.3% | −4.2% | +21.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | +56.9% | +4.3% | +52.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −6.8% | +7.5% | −14.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | −6.6% | +9.9% | −16.6 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | −45.9% | +49.8% | −95.8 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | −67.3% | +42.8% | −110.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 67 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 20.0, median 38.2, max 81.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −13.5% | −8.2% |
| Net income | 77.1 m | 28.4 m | 9.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −63.1% | −68.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.24 | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −63.0% | −67.8% |
| net % | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Free cash flow | 125.7 m | 111.0 m | 39.7 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 31.4 m GBP
- Financial debt
- unavailable GBP
- Net debt
- unavailable GBP
- Equity
- 214.6 m GBP
- Total assets
- 575.7 m GBP
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.47x
- ROE
- 3.8%
- ROA
- 1.5%
- FCF margin
- 2.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.0 bn | 896.4 m | 827.1 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.0 bn | 842.6 m | 769.5 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 118.8 m | 52.4 m | 20.9 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 3.6 m | 5.5 m | 6.2 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 117.4 m | 49.1 m | 16.2 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 40.4 m | 20.7 m | 7.2 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 77.1 m | 28.4 m | 9.0 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.24 | 0.09 | 0.03 | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.32 | 0.12 | 0.17 | esef· 15 Apr 2026derived |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 90.1 m | 95.3 m | 31.4 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 380.2 m | 315.3 m | 302.6 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 493.8 m | 428.6 m | 356.5 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 47.5 m | 45.8 m | 43.5 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 704.6 m | 650.1 m | 575.7 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 259.9 m | 229.5 m | 205.9 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 301.9 m | 268.7 m | 241.9 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 398.1 m | 387.7 m | 361.1 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 306.5 m | 262.4 m | 214.6 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 315.9 m | 312.6 m | 310.9 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 153.0 m | 126.7 m | 49.6 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 27.3 m | 15.7 m | 10.0 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 125.7 m ≈ | 111.0 m ≈ | 39.7 m ≈ | esef· 15 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -28.6 m | -13.7 m | -9.8 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -156.8 m | -106.1 m | -104.7 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 100.1 m | 52.0 m | 53.6 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 682.2 m GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
52% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 0.6% | 26 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 439.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.4x | 29 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.5x | 56 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 75.7x | 0 (vs peers) | 20% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 5.8% | 73 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 7.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 135.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality63/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns60/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation32/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
PAGEGROUP PLC (PAGE.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.6 bn GBP in 2025; YoY growth -8.2%; net margin 0.6%; ROE 3.8%.
The estimated value range is 1.01–1.30 GBP per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 1.14 GBP, the price of 2.19 GBP leaves a potential of -47.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -91.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 439.8%
- FCF yield: 5.8%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 7.9%
What contradicts it
- Net margin: 0.6%
- Interest coverage: 3.4x
- P/E (TTM): 75.7x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 135.1%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| PAGE.LPagegroup PLC | 682.2 m | 75.7 | 3.8% | 0.6% | −8.2% | −9% / −51% |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for PAGE.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 1.17 Total return -46% · Per year -46% | 2.08 Total return -4% · Per year -4% | 3.15 Total return 45% · Per year 45% |
| 3 years | 0.93 Total return -55% · Per year -23% | 1.88 Total return -11% · Per year -4% | 3.15 Total return 48% · Per year 14% |
| 5 years | 0.74 Total return -62% · Per year -18% | 1.70 Total return -17% · Per year -4% | 3.15 Total return 51% · Per year 9% |
- Exit P/E± 0.47
- Net margin± 0.33
- Annual revenue growth± 0.30
- Annual dilution± 0.03
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
PageGroup is a worldwide leader in specialist recruitment, operating in 34 countries through 123 offices 1. The company aims for £400m operating profit by 2030 in a difficult market, and its stated purpose is to change lives by providing access to decent work 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Leading position in permanent recruitment in most countries of operation, with a broad office network and discipline specialisms 1.
- High NPS, indicating client recognition of service quality 1.
- Strong balance sheet and cash generation, giving flexibility in difficult periods 1.
- Small-team and profit-share model allows rapid scaling and cost reduction in a downturn 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Macro-economic uncertaintyhigh
Uncertain economic conditions have reduced client and candidate confidence, which could affect revenue and profit 1.
- Strategic profit goalshigh
The 2030 operating profit goal was set in favourable conditions, and reaching it depends on a market recovery 1.
- Technology sectormedium
Conditions in the technology sector have been difficult, and the segment makes a significant share of gross profit 1.
- Outsourcing pressuremedium
The recruitment outsourcing sector has faced difficulties, and growth depends on large contracts 1.
- Regulatory changelow
Changes in sustainability reporting regulation can create compliance costs and the need for a new reporting strategy 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the market recovers, the low fixed-cost structure and profit-share model could allow gross profit to grow quickly 1.
- The recent US conversion gains and high NPS show the service model working even in difficult conditions 1.
- If expansion in emerging markets and outsourcing continues, the company could gain market share over the long term 1.
What would break the thesis
- If macro uncertainty persists, client and candidate confidence could stay low and profit could remain below targets 1.
- The strategic goals were set for a favourable period, and reaching them depends on a market recovery that is not assured 1.
- Technology and outsourcing have faced difficulties, which could limit near-term growth 1.
What to watch
- Trend in the conversion rate of offers to placements and US activityQ1 2027
- Progress toward the £400m operating profit goal2027
- Performance of the Technology segment and non-permanent recruitmentnext 10-K
- Outsourcing figures and the Enterprise Solutions pipeline2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
PageGroup operates through the Michael Page, Page Personnel, Page Executive and Enterprise Solutions brands, covering 14 disciplines aligned with professions 1. The model relies on small teams, a profit-share structure and specialist expertise, which allows gross profit to grow quickly with few additional consultants 1. The company says it aims to keep its market position through a strong balance sheet and strong cash generation 1.
The current strategy, launched in September 2023 and running to 2030, has three goals: £400m operating profit, changing one million lives and a net promoter score above 60 1. The group reported that its NPS reached 66 in 2025, above its 2030 target 1. Management says the profit goal was set on the basis of seven years of positive macro-economic conditions, which no longer apply 1.
Capital allocation aims to finance development from retained earnings and maintain a strong balance sheet 1. Given the difficult trading conditions, the board declared a final FY25 dividend of 3.21p per share but judged a special dividend not appropriate 1.
Segments
Core (Michael Page and Page Personnel)
The Core segment is the main driver of group performance and covers all disciplines except Technology 1. The company focused on strengthening market-leading positions and exiting less profitable business lines 1. Recovery in the US, with five successive quarters of growth, came almost entirely from a higher conversion rate of offers to placements 1.
Technology
Technology is the second largest discipline and made up 12% of group gross profit in 2025 1. The goal for 2030 is a business with £350m gross profit and a 20% conversion rate 1. Non-permanent recruitment in this segment has been more resilient, and the company is extending its contracting model 1.
Page Executive and Enterprise Solutions
Page Executive focuses on senior leadership search, with a goal of over £200m gross profit by 2030 1. Enterprise Solutions serves the largest clients with complex global needs, with a goal of £500m gross profit at a 20% conversion rate 1. The outsourcing business grew 18% in 2025 to a record level 1.
Market context
Trends
- Candidate and client confidencemixed
Candidate and client confidence drives market liquidity, and macro uncertainty has currently reduced it 1. If the environment becomes more stable, candidates could more actively seek career progression 1.
- US recoverytailwind
US activity has grown for five successive quarters, driven mainly by a better conversion rate of offers to placements rather than higher activity 1. This supports the case for an efficiency-led recovery 1.
- Slower hiring processesheadwind
Recruitment processes have lengthened as clients are more cautious and candidates reject offers more often 1. This weighs on time-to-hire and conversion 1.
- Digitalisation of recruitment and HRtailwind
The company is investing in a unified global HR platform and in automating certain manual recruitment tasks 1. If these programmes succeed they could reduce costs and improve the client experience 1.
Competitive position
The company operates in a sector where advantage comes from specialisation, scale and reputation, and the analysed sources do not name competitors 1. Beyond permanent recruitment, PageGroup faces outsourcing and staffing providers in the markets where it operates 1. Its differentiation rests on a high NPS and its network across 34 countries 1.
Its leading position in permanent recruitment in most of its countries is an important competitive advantage 1. Competitive pressure is higher in technology and outsourcing, where the sector has faced difficulties 1.
- General recruitment and staffing providers
Competitors in PageGroup's local markets, not named in the source; no US listing can be confirmed.
- Executive search firms
Competition for Page Executive in senior-level recruitment, with no names identified in the source.
- Technology recruitment providers
Competition in the Technology segment, where sector conditions have been difficult.
- Recruitment outsourcing providers
Competition in RPO and MSP, a sector the source describes as facing difficulties.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202515 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
- Annual report 202315 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / PageGroup plc · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.