olivLaw · European equity research
Publicis Groupe SA PUB.PA
France · Euronext Paris · ISIN FR0000130577 · Vertical: Listed companies from France
Publicis Groupe is a marketing and communications consultancy focused on creativity, media, data and technology. Because artificial intelligence is changing how clients plan their spending, the group is investing heavily in its own CoreAI platform, which unifies its proprietary data covering 2.3 billion profiles.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Publicis Groupe SA (PUB.PA) stock was 104.90 EUR (+0.43% on the day), with market capitalisation 26.3 bn EUR, P/E 16.0 on diluted EPS of 6.55 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.24%, beta 0.59, 52-week range 68.56–104.90 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 67.2
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 97.07 – 104.65
- above the upper band · %B 1.03 · band width 7.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 98.94 / 87.21
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.23 / 0.84
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +11.2% | −0.6% | +11.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +5.7% | −4.2% | +9.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | +28.4% | +4.3% | +24.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | +18.4% | +7.5% | +10.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +23.3% | +9.9% | +13.3 pp | −6.8% |
| 3 years | +44.6% | +49.8% | −5.2 pp | −15.9% |
| 5 years | +80.6% | +42.8% | +37.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 67 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 12.3, median 15.7, max 16.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 14.2 bn | 14.8 bn | 16.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +4.3% | +8.3% |
| Net income | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.7 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +7.4% | +26.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 4.82 | 5.17 | 6.55 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +7.3% | +26.7% |
| net % | 8.6% | 8.9% | 10.4% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 3.6 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 11.0 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 39.9 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.91x
- ROE
- 16.0%
- ROA
- 4.3%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 14.2 bn | 14.8 bn | 16.0 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Operating income | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.2 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | — | 1.7 bn | 2.2 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Income tax | 431.0 m | 415.0 m | 549.0 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Net income | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 4.82 | 5.17 | 6.55 | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 253.6 m | 254.0 m | 253.6 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 2.90 | 3.40 | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 4.6 bn | 4.3 bn | 3.6 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Inventories | 327.0 m | 341.0 m | 361.0 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Current assets | 19.1 bn | 20.6 bn | 22.0 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 610.0 m | 596.0 m | 608.0 m | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 12.5 bn | 12.4 bn | 13.8 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.2 bn | 958.0 m | 1.1 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Total assets | 35.9 bn | 36.7 bn | 39.9 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 20.4 bn | 21.8 bn | 24.1 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Equity | 9.6 bn | 9.7 bn | 11.0 bn | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 250.9 m | 250.9 m | 250.8 m | esef· 07 May 2025derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 26.3 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
21% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 46.24 – 195.20 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E72.65 – 195.20 (Mid 112.21)20 companies used · median multiple 17.1x · quartiles 11.1x – 29.8x74SW.PA, ABEO.PA, AC.PA, ADP.PA, AF.PA, AI.PA, ALBON.PA, ALCIS.PA, ALCLA.PA, ALFER.PA, ALHEX.PA, ALO.PA, ALPWG.PA, ALSOG.PA, ANTIN.PA, ARAMI.PA, ATE.PA, AUB.PA, AURE.PA, BB.PA
- Dividend discount (DDM)46.24 – 63.05 (Mid 53.35)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 10.4% | 92 (vs peers) | 30% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.9x | 9 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 16.0x | 61 (vs peers) | 50% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial9/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial92/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial61/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
PUBLICIS GROUPE SA (PUB.PA). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 16.0 bn EUR in 2024; YoY growth 8.3%; net margin 10.4%; ROE 15.9%.
The estimated value range is 59.44–129.12 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 82.78 EUR, the price of 104.90 EUR leaves a potential of -21.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -26.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 10.4%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.9x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from France · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI.PAL'air Liquide Societe Anonyme Pour L'etude Et L'exploitation Des Procedes Georges Claude | 109.3 bn | 33.2 | 12.9% | 12.2% | −2.0% | +26% / +32% |
| PUB.PAPublicis Groupe SA | 26.3 bn | 16.0 | 15.9% | 10.4% | +8.3% | +25% / +35% |
| AC.PAAccor | 13.8 bn | 30.7 | 9.6% | 8.0% | +0.6% | +6% / +56% |
| ADP.PAAeroports De Paris | 11.7 bn | 34.1 | 7.8% | 5.6% | +12.1% | −7% / +4% |
| AKE.PAArkema | 7.1 bn | 115.4 | 0.9% | 0.7% | −5.0% | +12% / −37% |
| ALO.PAAlstom | 5.8 bn | 18.3 | 3.1% | 1.7% | +3.7% | −51% / −4% |
| AF.PAAir France - Klm | 4.3 bn | 13.6 | — | 1.0% | +4.8% | +20% / +9% |
| ATE.PAAlten | 3.1 bn | 29.5 | 4.8% | 2.6% | −1.1% | +33% / −29% |
| BB.PASociete Bic | 2.7 bn | 31.3 | 5.0% | 4.1% | −4.8% | +32% / +5% |
| ANTIN.PAAntin Infrastructure Partners | 1.4 bn | 13.0 | 21.9% | 36.6% | −8.1% | −24% / −35% |
| 74SW.PA74software | 792.7 m | 20.9 | 8.9% | 8.5% | +44.8% | −13% / +41% |
| AUB.PAAubay | 667.4 m | 17.8 | 13.6% | 6.3% | +11.3% | +3% / +45% |
| ASY.PAAssystem | 507.1 m | 69.9 | 2.5% | 1.1% | +7.4% | −19% / −18% |
| ATO.PAAtos Se | 483.0 m | — | -23,400.0% | -17.5% | −16.5% | −45% / −94% |
| ARAMI.PAAramis Group | 298.8 m | 15.0 | 10.0% | 0.8% | +6.3% | −33% / −16% |
| ARVEN.PAArverne Group | 246.1 m | — | -14.0% | -115.3% | +27.0% | +20% / −35% |
| BGO.PACompagnie Chargeurs Invest | 189.4 m | — | -8.6% | -5.7% | −2.9% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALCIS.PACatering International & Services | 145.0 m | 28.4 | 9.3% | 1.9% | +5.8% | +39% / +107% |
| ALCGM.PACegedim | 144.6 m | — | -2.6% | -1.2% | +10.9% | −26% / −49% |
| ATEME.PAAteme | 144.0 m | 151.3 | 2.8% | 1.0% | +2.2% | +82% / +77% |
| ALHEX.PAHexaom | 144.0 m | 6.7 | 9.9% | 2.2% | +13.1% | −32% / +7% |
| ALBON.PACompagnie Lebon | 111.7 m | 16.5 | 4.2% | 8.8% | −17.9% | +6% / +8% |
| ALHYF.PALhyfe | 75.8 m | — | -33.4% | -570.5% | +287.2% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALFER.PASergeferrari Group | 61.5 m | 11.5 | 5.1% | 1.5% | +7.4% | −33% / −27% |
| ABEO.PAAbeo | 60.8 m | 7.3 | 6.9% | 3.0% | +12.6% | −13% / −54% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for PUB.PA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 65.06 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 114.82 Total return 13% · Per year 13% | 172.67 Total return 69% · Per year 69% |
| 3 years | 68.05 Total return -27% · Per year -10% | 134.66 Total return 40% · Per year 12% | 221.64 Total return 126% · Per year 31% |
| 5 years | 71.18 Total return -18% · Per year -4% | 157.93 Total return 71% · Per year 11% | 284.50 Total return 199% · Per year 24% |
- Exit P/E± 33.66
- Net margin± 23.57
- Annual revenue growth± 18.66
- Annual dilution± 1.98
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Publicis Groupe is a marketing and communications consultancy focused on creativity, media, data and technology. Because artificial intelligence is changing how clients plan their spending, the group is investing heavily in its own CoreAI platform, which unifies its proprietary data covering 2.3 billion profiles 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has a large-scale proprietary data platform, unified through CoreAI, which supports integrated offers for clients 1.
- The Power of One organisation and the shared service centres provide standardisation and operational efficiency across the global agency network 1.
- The client portfolio is diversified across several industry sectors, which reduces dependence on any single industry 1.
Weaknesses
- Monetising the gains brought by artificial intelligence is uncertain, and this could weigh on financial performance if it does not materialise 1.
- Reliance on agencies and specialised talent means performance depends on the ability to retain and attract qualified staff 1.
- The activity rests on intellectual services, which makes protection through tangible assets difficult and limits capital-based scaling 1.
Opportunities
- Growth in generative AI could open new creative production and large-scale personalisation services for clients 1.
- Rising demand for responsible marketing and lower environmental impact could create new mandates for the group 1.
- Putting proprietary data to use could support digital products and software sold to clients 1.
Threats
- Artificial intelligence regulation is spreading across several regions, which could bring sanctions if compliance lapses 1.
- Reputational risks linked to clients seen as harmful to the environment could affect the agency's image 1.
- Competition from technology companies with their own AI solutions could reduce the group's share in certain services 1.
Risks
- Artificial intelligence riskmedium
Adopting AI can change service performance and put pressure on competitiveness, while inappropriate use could lead to a loss of trust among clients and employees 1.
- Credit rating and liquiditymedium
A possible downgrade of credit ratings could limit access to financing and raise the cost of future borrowing, which would affect investment 1.
- Litigation and corruptionmedium
The group operates in countries where corruption risk is seen as high, and a breach of regulation, including by a partner, could lead to sanctions 1.
- Tax risklow
The diversity of tax rules and their different interpretations can expose the group to tax adjustments 1.
- Client reputationlow
Working with clients seen as harmful to the environment can damage the agency's image and the trust of stakeholders 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The CoreAI platform, which unifies large-scale proprietary data, could offer a lasting advantage if clients keep buying integrated marketing and data services 1.
- Investment in technology and AI, backed by a balance sheet described as solid, could allow the group to maintain its position against competitors 1.
- If the group turns AI productivity gains into revenue, margins could benefit from scaling its services 1.
What would break the thesis
- If monetisation of AI falls short of expectations, large investments could weigh on profitability in the coming years 1.
- Stricter rules on artificial intelligence could raise compliance costs and slow the pace of implementation 1.
- Competition from technology companies could reduce market share in data and technology services 1.
What to watch
- Development of revenue generated by artificial intelligence and the ability to monetise investment in CoreAI2025
- Enforcement of the Artificial Intelligence Act and its impact on the group's operations2027
- Changes in credit ratings assigned by Moody's and Standard & Poor'snext 10-K
- Progress on climate targets validated by SBTi and the move to 100% renewable energy2030
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Publicis Groupe is a consultancy that provides intellectual services, meaning intangible goods, to corporate clients. Responsible marketing and communications sit at the heart of the offer, structured around three strategic pillars: Intelligent Creativity, Connected Media and Technology 1.
The business model rests on talent and on the Power of One organisation, which places the client at the centre. Over the past ten years the group has invested 12 billion euros in data, technology and AI, which has allowed it to offer integrated solutions 1.
Downstream, the group's clients address their end consumers directly, and its client portfolio is balanced across sectors such as automotive, finance, health, technology, consumer goods and retail 1.
Segments
Intelligent Creativity
The creation and production pillar, through which the group develops content and campaigns for clients, supported by the AI tools of the CoreAI platform 1.
Connected Media
The media and data pillar, which combines media planning and buying with analysis of proprietary data so clients can optimise sales and budget allocation 1.
Technology
The technology pillar, which includes digital solutions, software and cloud services for clients, developed in cooperation with other technology companies 1.
Market context
The group operates in the market for marketing and communications services to companies. The source notes that generative artificial intelligence entered this field in 2023 and that AI rules are expanding in the European Union, Latin America and some US states 1.
Client demand depends on marketing budgets and on agencies' ability to turn data into measurable results. The pace of AI adoption and regulation remains an important factor for the group's position 1.
Trends
- Generative artificial intelligencemixed
AI adoption could let agencies deliver faster and more personalised services if the group manages to monetise productivity gains; otherwise adaptation costs could press on margins 1.
- AI regulationheadwind
New artificial intelligence laws, such as the Artificial Intelligence Act of the European Union, require continuous compliance and can lead to sanctions, which raises governance costs 1.
- Proprietary data and identitytailwind
An extensive base of proprietary data can support personalised offers for clients, as long as data protection rules keep tightening and are respected 1.
- Client response to responsible marketingmixed
Rising demand for responsible marketing and lower environmental impact could open new mandates, but it can also limit clients active in sectors seen as harmful 1.
Competitive position
Competition comes from other global advertising and marketing consultancies, as well as from technology companies offering their own AI and data tools. The source does not give a full list of competitors, so the comparison stays limited to the information in the report 1.
The group's stated advantage lies in the CoreAI platform and in its shared service centres, which cover nearly all revenue and support process standardisation across agencies 1.
- Other global advertising and marketing groups
Rivals offering creative, media and data services to corporate clients, not named in the source.
- Technology companies with AI solutions
Providers of data and artificial intelligence platforms that could compete directly with the group's CoreAI platform.
- Media agencies and buying specialists
Players specialised in media planning and buying that compete for client budgets in the Connected Media segment.
- Digital consultancy firms
Companies offering digital transformation and technology services that compete with the group's Technology pillar.
News & filings
In the press
- AXA partners with Publicis Sapient to scale AI agent deploymentYahoo Finance — News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Publicis Plans to Buy Ad Tech Firm LiveRamp in $2.5 Billion DealBloomberg Markets · 17 May 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202407 May 2025
- Annual report 202301 May 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Publicis Groupe SA · 31 Dec 2024
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.