olivLaw · European equity research
Safran SAF.PA
France · Euronext Paris · ISIN FR0000073272 · Vertical: Listed companies from France
Safran designs, develops and manufactures engines, equipment and systems for civil aviation and defence, with a strong position in propulsion and aftermarket services. For fiscal 2025 the group reported adjusted revenue of 31.329 bn EUR, and its recent acquisitions and growing installed base make it an important reference for the European aerospace sector.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Safran (SAF.PA) stock was 297.60 EUR (+1.74% on the day), with market capitalisation 124.4 bn EUR, P/E 17.3 on diluted EPS of 17.17 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.97%, beta 1.31, 52-week range 265.20–363.60 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 47.3
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 261.97 – 332.73
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.50 · band width 23.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 317.41 / 315.93
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -10.13 / -11.45
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −9.7% | −0.6% | −9.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | −16.2% | −4.2% | −12.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | +0.9% | +4.3% | −3.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +0.1% | +7.5% | −7.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | −3.0% | +9.9% | −13.0 pp | −6.8% |
| 3 years | +98.4% | +49.8% | +48.6 pp | −15.9% |
| 5 years | +147.3% | +42.8% | +104.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 17.3, median 17.3, max 17.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 23.7 bn | 28.2 bn | 31.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +19.0% | +12.4% |
| Net income | 3.4 bn | -667.0 m | 7.2 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −119.4% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -8.07 | -1.60 | 17.17 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 14.6% | -2.4% | 22.7% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 6.8 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 15.5 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 61.8 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 54.8%
- ROA
- 12.3%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 23.7 bn | 28.2 bn | 31.7 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 2.8 bn | 4.2 bn | — | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 4.8 bn | -859.0 m | 10.3 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 1.2 bn | -284.0 m | 3.0 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 3.4 bn | -667.0 m | 7.2 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -8.07 | -1.60 | 17.17 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | — | 2.90 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 6.7 bn | 6.5 bn | 6.8 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 9.4 bn | 10.6 bn | 14.2 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 7.9 bn | 9.5 bn | 10.3 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 29.2 bn | 31.5 bn | — | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 4.1 bn | 4.6 bn | 5.4 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 4.7 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.8 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 7.8 bn | 7.9 bn | 7.5 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 50.5 bn | 55.0 bn | 61.8 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 8.1 bn | 9.8 bn | 13.4 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 30.8 bn | 37.4 bn | — | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Equity | 12.1 bn | 10.7 bn | 15.5 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 418.0 m | 416.9 m | 418.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 2 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 124.4 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
17% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 190.44 – 511.68 EUR.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E190.44 – 511.68 (Mid 294.13)20 companies used · median multiple 17.1x · quartiles 11.1x – 29.8x74SW.PA, ABEO.PA, AC.PA, ADP.PA, AF.PA, AI.PA, ALBON.PA, ALCIS.PA, ALCLA.PA, ALFER.PA, ALHEX.PA, ALO.PA, ALPWG.PA, ALSOG.PA, ANTIN.PA, ARAMI.PA, ATE.PA, AUB.PA, AURE.PA, BB.PA
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate39.44 – 53.78 (Mid 45.51)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 22.7% | 95 (vs peers) | 38% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 17.3x | 57 (vs peers) | 63% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial95/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial57/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
SAFRAN (SAF.PA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 31.7 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth 12.4%; net margin 22.7%; ROE 57.4%.
The estimated value range is 190.44–511.68 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 294.13 EUR, the price of 297.60 EUR leaves a potential of -1.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -1.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 22.7%
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from France · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAF.PASafran | 124.4 bn | 17.3 | 57.4% | 22.7% | +12.4% | +3% / +85% |
| AI.PAL'air Liquide Societe Anonyme Pour L'etude Et L'exploitation Des Procedes Georges Claude | 109.3 bn | 33.2 | 12.9% | 12.2% | −2.0% | +26% / +32% |
| AC.PAAccor | 13.8 bn | 30.7 | 9.6% | 8.0% | +0.6% | +6% / +56% |
| ADP.PAAeroports De Paris | 11.7 bn | 34.1 | 7.8% | 5.6% | +12.1% | −7% / +4% |
| AKE.PAArkema | 7.1 bn | 115.4 | 0.9% | 0.7% | −5.0% | +12% / −37% |
| ALO.PAAlstom | 5.8 bn | 18.3 | 3.1% | 1.7% | +3.7% | −51% / −4% |
| AF.PAAir France - Klm | 4.3 bn | 13.6 | — | 1.0% | +4.8% | +20% / +9% |
| ATE.PAAlten | 3.1 bn | 29.5 | 4.8% | 2.6% | −1.1% | +33% / −29% |
| BB.PASociete Bic | 2.7 bn | 31.3 | 5.0% | 4.1% | −4.8% | +32% / +5% |
| ANTIN.PAAntin Infrastructure Partners | 1.4 bn | 13.0 | 21.9% | 36.6% | −8.1% | −24% / −35% |
| 74SW.PA74software | 792.7 m | 20.9 | 8.9% | 8.5% | +44.8% | −13% / +41% |
| AUB.PAAubay | 667.4 m | 17.8 | 13.6% | 6.3% | +11.3% | +3% / +45% |
| ASY.PAAssystem | 507.1 m | 69.9 | 2.5% | 1.1% | +7.4% | −19% / −18% |
| ATO.PAAtos Se | 483.0 m | — | -23,400.0% | -17.5% | −16.5% | −45% / −94% |
| ARAMI.PAAramis Group | 298.8 m | 15.0 | 10.0% | 0.8% | +6.3% | −33% / −16% |
| ARVEN.PAArverne Group | 246.1 m | — | -14.0% | -115.3% | +27.0% | +20% / −35% |
| BGO.PACompagnie Chargeurs Invest | 189.4 m | — | -8.6% | -5.7% | −2.9% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALCIS.PACatering International & Services | 145.0 m | 28.4 | 9.3% | 1.9% | +5.8% | +39% / +107% |
| ALCGM.PACegedim | 144.6 m | — | -2.6% | -1.2% | +10.9% | −26% / −49% |
| ATEME.PAAteme | 144.0 m | 151.3 | 2.8% | 1.0% | +2.2% | +82% / +77% |
| ALHEX.PAHexaom | 144.0 m | 6.7 | 9.9% | 2.2% | +13.1% | −32% / +7% |
| ALBON.PACompagnie Lebon | 111.7 m | 16.5 | 4.2% | 8.8% | −17.9% | +6% / +8% |
| ALHYF.PALhyfe | 75.8 m | — | -33.4% | -570.5% | +287.2% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALFER.PASergeferrari Group | 61.5 m | 11.5 | 5.1% | 1.5% | +7.4% | −33% / −27% |
| ABEO.PAAbeo | 60.8 m | 7.3 | 6.9% | 3.0% | +12.6% | −13% / −54% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SAF.PA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 189.94 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 334.62 Total return 14% · Per year 14% | 502.40 Total return 70% · Per year 70% |
| 3 years | 214.93 Total return -25% · Per year -9% | 423.04 Total return 46% · Per year 13% | 692.91 Total return 138% · Per year 33% |
| 5 years | 243.21 Total return -14% · Per year -3% | 534.83 Total return 87% · Per year 13% | 955.65 Total return 230% · Per year 27% |
- Exit P/E± 105.76
- Net margin± 74.03
- Annual revenue growth± 56.47
- Annual dilution± 6.22
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Safran designs, develops and manufactures engines, equipment and systems for civil aviation and defence, with a strong position in propulsion and aftermarket services. For fiscal 2025 the group reported adjusted revenue of 31.329 bn EUR, and its recent acquisitions and growing installed base make it an important reference for the European aerospace sector 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Strong position in civil propulsion, with the LEAP programme and aftermarket activities generating recurring revenue. Rising operating margin and a diversified portfolio across three divisions.
- Global industrial presence, with new sites inaugurated in 2025 and expanded production capacity for long-term programmes.
- Access to funding through confirmed credit lines and a commercial paper programme, which supports liquidity management.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on a few major programmes and on partner GE Aerospace for certain engines, which limits strategic flexibility.
- Significant foreign exchange exposure to the US dollar, since a large part of revenue is invoiced in this currency.
- Reported results are influenced by complex accounting adjustments, which can make direct comparison harder for external investors.
Opportunities
- Continued growth in air traffic could support demand for services and spare parts over the long term.
- Demand for defence systems and space equipment could increase if government programmes expand.
- Development of low-consumption engines and electric technologies could open new markets in the next generation of aircraft.
Threats
- Trade tensions and customs duties could affect costs and margins, particularly for activities with cross-border supply chains.
- Competition from large groups and emerging manufacturers could reduce market share in certain segments.
- Limited availability of sustainable aviation fuels could delay the industry's decarbonisation targets.
Risks
- Technological and decarbonisation riskshigh
Choices in emerging technologies could prove less relevant over the long term, and competitors could launch more capable products. This could affect the group's activity and results.
- Foreign exchange riskhigh
Exposure to the US dollar could affect operating results if exchange rates move differently from expectations, even though the group uses hedging strategies.
- Customer counterparty riskmedium
Some customers, such as airlines, could face financial difficulties and delay payments or cancel orders, affecting cash flows.
- Sales-related guaranteesmedium
Financial commitments supporting engine sales could expose the group to losses if airlines fail to meet their obligations or if the second-hand aircraft market weakens.
- Compliance and regulationlow
The group is subject to multiple regulations on competition, corruption, export controls and sanctions. Potential non-compliance could lead to penalties and harm its reputation.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If air traffic and service activity keep growing, recurring revenue could support group results and operating margins.
- Record LEAP engine deliveries and the position in propulsion could strengthen the long-term competitive advantage.
- Diversification across three divisions and defence demand could reduce reliance on a single segment.
What would break the thesis
- If trade tensions and customs duties intensify, costs and margins could be hit harder than currently anticipated.
- Failure of some decarbonisation technologies or delays in sustainable fuel availability could slow growth.
- Currency exposure and the complexity of accounting adjustments could make results harder to interpret and more volatile.
What to watch
- Evolution of adjusted revenue and operating marginQ1 2027
- LEAP engine deliveries and aftermarket service volumes2027
- Impact of customs duties on costs and margins2027
- Progress of the RISE project and decarbonisation technologiesnext annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Safran is an international aerospace and defence group headquartered in Paris, organised into three divisions: Propulsion, Equipment and Defence, and Aircraft Interiors. Its activity combines series production with a large volume of services for the existing fleet, which provides part of its revenue on a long-term recurring basis 1.
The adjusted figures reported by the company aim to reflect economic performance by restating the effects of acquisitions and foreign exchange derivatives. Adjusted indicators such as revenue and recurring operating income are the measures management uses for comparison with competitors 1.
During 2025 the group inaugurated several industrial and maintenance sites, including a global LEAP maintenance centre in Hyderabad, a new compressor blade plant in Belgium and an aeronautical electrical systems site in Singapore. These investments support production capacity for long-term programmes 1.
Segments
Propulsion
The Propulsion division grew 17.6 % organically in 2025, supported by civil engine aftermarket activities and record LEAP deliveries. The division's operating margin was 23 % of revenue, up 240 basis points 1.
Market context
The reference market is civil air traffic, particularly long-haul traffic, which has returned above pre-pandemic levels, and the installed fleet, which generates demand for services. The company points to solid traffic and a low aircraft retirement rate, factors that support aftermarket activity 1.
An important part of demand also comes from defence, where the M88 engine and missile systems benefit from high order backlogs, including from export customers. The defence market, however, depends on government budgets and state procurement decisions 1.
Trends
- Growth in air traffic and the installed fleettailwind
Robust air traffic and low aircraft retirement rates led to higher demand for spare parts and services than initially expected. If this trend persists, aftermarket activities could remain a major driver of results.
- Higher demand for defencetailwind
The geopolitical context has increased volumes for defence equipment and navigation and missile systems. This could support growth in the Equipment and Defence division, provided government budgets remain stable.
- Impact of customs dutiesheadwind
Customs duties weighed on the group's recurring operating income in 2025 even as volumes grew. Changes in trade policy could affect costs and margins, especially for activities with international supply chains.
- Decarbonisation of aviationmixed
The shift towards sustainable fuels and low-consumption technologies is both a development opportunity and a technological risk. Results could depend on the success of new engine programmes and on the availability of sustainable fuels, which remain uncertain.
Competitive position
Safran competes in engines and systems with large aerospace groups such as GE Aerospace and RTX, as well as with European and Asian component manufacturers. In propulsion its position rests on the LEAP programme, developed with GE Aerospace, and on associated services.
In equipment and interiors, the group faces specialist suppliers of landing gear, cabin systems and defence electronics. Its advantage lies in a broad portfolio and global presence, but competitive pressure remains high in some niches.
- GE AerospaceGE
Partner in the LEAP programme and the RISE project, and also a direct competitor in propulsion and civil engine services.
- RTXRTX
Aerospace and defence group with activities competing in engines, cabin systems and civil fleet services.
- Rolls-Royce
British aero-engine manufacturer competing in civil and military propulsion.
- MTU Aero Engines
German engine component and service provider active in the same aftermarket segments.
News & filings
In the press
- ► Safran secures inertial navigation contracts for french nuclear deterrenceEuropean Defence Review · 02 Nov 2026 · RO
- MBDA and Safran receive approval to supply France’s new long-range land strike capabilityEuropean Defence Review · 10 Sept 2026 · RO
- ► EDGE and Safran chart path for strategic defence cooperation in BrazilEuropean Defence Review · 09 Sept 2026 · RO
- The 21.5-Inch Business Class Seat That Threatens Collins, Safran & RECARO's Grip On Mid-Size AirlinesSimple Flying · 06 Sept 2026 · EN
- Rolls-Royce, Safran vie for India’s next-generation fighter engineDefense News (US, EN) · 27 Aug 2026 · EN
- France picks MBDA-Safran combo to supply multiple rocket launcherDefense News (US, EN) · 15 Jun 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202507 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Safran · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.