olivLaw · European equity research
Saga plc SAGA.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00BMX64W89 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Saga plc is a UK group focused on travel for people over 50, with ocean and river cruises, holidays and an insurance broker, and it also had an underwriting business during the reporting period. Underlying profitability in its ocean cruise segment rose strongly in fiscal 2026, while the group's insurance underwriting arm was sold to Ageas, changing its revenue mix. Underlying earnings per share reached 41.1p, and Ocean Cruise generated 67.3m GBP underlying profit before tax.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Saga plc (SAGA.L) stock was 8.62 GBP (−1.60% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.2 bn GBP, P/E 359.2 on diluted EPS of 0.02 GBP over the last 12 months, beta 0.91, 52-week range 2.45–9.10 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 61.6
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 7.37 – 9.18
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.69 · band width 21.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 7.26 / 6.11
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.45 / 0.45
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +14.9% | −0.6% | +15.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | +19.6% | −4.2% | +23.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +40.2% | +4.3% | +35.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +120.2% | +7.5% | +112.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +225.3% | +9.9% | +215.4 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +620.7% | +49.8% | +570.9 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | +172.6% | +42.8% | +129.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 216.7, median 216.7, max 216.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 564.6 m | 588.3 m | 660.0 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +4.2% | +12.2% |
| Net income | -113.0 m | -164.9 m | 3.6 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.81 | -1.17 | 0.02 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -20.0% | -28.0% | 0.5% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Jan 2026
- Cash
- 257.0 m GBP
- Financial debt
- unavailable GBP
- Net debt
- unavailable GBP
- Equity
- 69.7 m GBP
- Total assets
- 1.3 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 5.7%
- ROA
- 0.3%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 564.6 m | 588.3 m | 660.0 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 302.0 m | 308.8 m | 341.1 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 262.6 m | 279.5 m | 318.9 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 44.4 m | 50.5 m | 68.6 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -129.0 m | -141.1 m | 4.5 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Income tax | -15.8 m | 18.5 m | -2.0 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Net income | -113.0 m | -164.9 m | 3.6 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.81 | -1.17 | 0.02 | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 219.6 m | 129.2 m | 257.0 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 593.4 m | 582.8 m | 568.3 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 344.7 m | 206.4 m | 206.4 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 60.7 m | 34.3 m | 33.0 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.9 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.2 bn | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Equity | 223.5 m | 57.7 m | 69.7 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 139.9 m | 140.5 m | 144.0 m | esef· 27 May 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 2 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.2 bn GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
17% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 0.5% | 26 (vs peers) | 38% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 359.2x | 0 (vs peers) | 63% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial26/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
SAGA PLC (SAGA.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-01-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 660.0 m GBP in 2026; YoY growth 12.2%; net margin 0.5%; ROE 5.7%.
The estimated value range is 0.27–0.42 GBP per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 0.35 GBP, the price of 8.62 GBP leaves a potential of -96.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -2,389.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Net margin: 0.5%
- P/E (TTM): 359.2x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| SAGA.LSaga PLC | 1.2 bn | 359.2 | 5.7% | 0.5% | +12.2% | +220% / +682% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SAGA.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 5.72 Total return -34% · Per year -34% | 10.07 Total return 17% · Per year 17% | 15.13 Total return 75% · Per year 75% |
| 3 years | 6.44 Total return -25% · Per year -9% | 12.68 Total return 47% · Per year 14% | 20.77 Total return 141% · Per year 34% |
| 5 years | 7.25 Total return -16% · Per year -3% | 15.96 Total return 85% · Per year 13% | 28.53 Total return 231% · Per year 27% |
- Exit P/E± 3.17
- Net margin± 2.22
- Annual revenue growth± 1.70
- Annual dilution± 0.19
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Saga plc is a UK group focused on travel for people over 50, with ocean and river cruises, holidays and an insurance broker, and it also had an underwriting business during the reporting period. Underlying profitability in its ocean cruise segment rose strongly in fiscal 2026, while the group's insurance underwriting arm was sold to Ageas, changing its revenue mix. Underlying earnings per share reached 41.1p, and Ocean Cruise generated 67.3m GBP underlying profit before tax 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- A well-known brand among older customers and a loyal customer base that supports cross-selling.
- The Ocean Cruise segment generates solid underlying profit and forward bookings show sustained momentum.
- Available Operating Cash Flow is strong, providing financial flexibility.
Weaknesses
- Finance costs rose after refinancing debt at higher interest rates, weighing on net profit.
- Reported earnings per share are far below underlying earnings, showing significant adjustments.
- Motor insurance margins fell, and direct sales declined as channels shifted.
Opportunities
- Demand for European destinations and cruises could lift revenue in the travel segment.
- The affinity partnership with Ageas could simplify insurance operations and reduce risk retained.
- New ships and long-term charters could support capacity growth in River Cruise.
Threats
- Competitive pressure from online comparison sites could reduce margins in motor and home insurance.
- The geopolitical environment could change destination preferences and affect demand for some routes.
- High interest rates could keep financing costs elevated and limit flexibility.
Risks
- Finance costsmedium
Refinancing corporate debt at materially higher interest rates raised finance costs, and if rates stay high, net profit could be affected.
- Insurance pressuremedium
New business margins on motor insurance fell, and home volumes weakened amid competition from online channels.
- Dependence on travel demandmedium
Revenue depends on customers' willingness to travel, and a geopolitical or economic shock could reduce bookings.
- Accounting and tax adjustmentslow
The large gap between underlying and reported profit shows that adjustments can materially influence reported results.
- Disposal transactionslow
The sale of the underwriter to Ageas changes the revenue structure, and its longer-term effects could become visible gradually.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If cruise bookings keep growing, the Ocean Cruise segment could support group profitability for several years.
- Available Operating Cash Flow is solid, which could allow debt reduction or new investment.
- The brand and customer base could support cross-selling between travel and insurance products.
What would break the thesis
- If interest rates remain high, finance costs could continue to weigh on net profit.
- Pressure from online comparison channels could further reduce margins in motor and home insurance.
- The large gap between underlying and reported profit could call into question the quality of results.
What to watch
- Evolution of cruise bookings for Ocean Cruise and River Cruise in 2026/272027
- Impact of finance costs on net profitnext 10-K
- Effects of the affinity partnership with Ageas on insurance revenue2027
- Trend in motor and home insurance marginsQ1 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Saga plc runs three travel segments: Ocean Cruise, River Cruise and Holidays (the Saga Holidays and Titan brands), plus an insurance division, Insurance Broking, which sells motor, home, PMI and travel insurance. Until its sale to Ageas on 1 July 2025, the group also had an in-house insurer, AICL, which continues to underwrite part of the broking business 1. Travel generated underlying revenue of 504.1m GBP in fiscal 2026, and management says bookings for 2026/27 remain solid 1.
The group also includes Money, Publishing and CustomerKNECT, along with central costs, which eased to 23.8m GBP 1. Corporate debt was refinanced at the start of the year at materially higher interest rates, and net finance costs outside the travel segments rose to 43.1m GBP 1. Underlying earnings per share rose to 41.1p, while reported basic earnings per share were only 2.5p 1.
Segments
River Cruise
River Cruise took delivery of its third ship, Spirit of the Moselle, in July 2025, on a 10-year charter. The load factor was 89%, and underlying profit rose to 5.9m GBP 1. For 2026/27 the load factor is 5 percentage points ahead of last year, supported by demand for Spirit of the Danube 1.
Holidays
Holidays, which includes the Saga Holidays and Titan brands, grew in volume, with 60.8k passengers against 54.8k, while revenue per passenger stayed broadly flat at 3044 GBP amid a preference for European destinations 1. Underlying profit reached 14.0m GBP, and bookings for 2026/27 are ahead of last year 1.
Market context
Saga operates in the UK market for travel and insurance aimed at older customers, a segment with high purchasing power and clear preferences for tailored services. Demand for cruises and European holidays appears to remain robust, while motor and home insurance is more competitive, with online comparison sites pressing margins 1. Gross written premiums in broking fell 4.0% to 552.0m GBP, which shows the pressure in the market 1.
The motor and home insurance market is price-sensitive, and the shift towards online comparison channels can reduce direct sales, as happened in this year 1. If demand for travel stays strong, the travel segment could offset pressure in insurance 1.
Trends
- Sustained demand for cruisestailwind
Ocean Cruise bookings for 2026/27 show sustained momentum, with the per diem rising and a similar load factor 1. If this continues, it could support the segment's profitability.
- Preference for European destinationsmixed
Customers have favoured European destinations over long-haul ones, an effect attributed to the geopolitical environment 1. The effect on revenue per passenger is mixed, but volumes are growing.
- Pressure on insurance marginsheadwind
New business margins on motor insurance fell, and home volumes declined, eroding written gross profit after marketing 1. If the pressure continues, it could limit the segment's growth.
- Higher finance costsheadwind
Refinancing corporate debt at higher interest rates raised the group's net finance costs 1. Higher financing costs could weigh on net profit if rates remain elevated.
Competitive position
Saga competes in cruises with large operators, in holidays with agencies and tour operators focused on older customers, and in insurance with brokers and online comparison platforms. Its advantage comes from a well-known brand and a loyal customer base, which it uses for cross-selling 1. Competitive pressure is highest in motor and home insurance 1.
In insurance, the group raised customer retention to 85% but lost direct sales as competition in online channels grew 1. The sale of the underwriter to Ageas shows a strategy focused on broking rather than risk-taking 1.
- Large cruise operators
Competitors in ocean and river cruising, especially for customers seeking all-inclusive packages.
- Specialist tour operators
Competitors in organised holidays, with a focus on European destinations and older customers.
- Online comparison platforms
Competitors in motor and home insurance that have moved part of demand to digital channels.
- Insurance brokers
Competitors in broking for motor, home and travel insurance products.
News & filings
In the press
- Spain raises last-minute objections in tobacco taxation sagaEuractiv · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Cleaver clinches another House term after Missouri redistricting sagaThe Hill · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- A top-secret spy mission, a decades-old scandal – and the Austin Powers-esque saga to lift the lidThe Guardian World · 31 Oct 2026 · EN
- Moartea lui Patrick Stewart, alias Charles Xavier din saga X-Men - Sortir à ParisSurge — Google News · 29 Oct 2026 · RO
- Moartea lui Patrick Stewart, alias Charles Xavier din saga X-Men - Sortir à ParisSurge — Google News · 29 Oct 2026 · RO
- Audacious Indian jailbreak saga ends with 17 prisoners recapturedBBC World News · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- The Atari VCS saga will come to an end next year when its software store closesThe Verge · 22 Oct 2026 · EN
- Saga capetelor de porc continuă. Un al doilea incident tip Cosa Nostra la proprietățile cofondatorului AUR, Marius LuleaDigi24 · 20 Oct 2026 · RO
- Flydubai FZ1073 saga: Iran theorizes it was an Israeli false-flag operationHacker News · 13 Oct 2026 · EN
- Explainer: What top Zelensky staffer's bail saga tells us about Ukraine's justice systemKyiv Independent (UA, EN) · 12 Oct 2026 · EN
- Games Workshop seeks IT leader to summon the legions in epic saga battling the forces of ERPThe Register · 05 Oct 2026 · EN
- Paramount’s $52 Billion Debt Saga Ends With Hair-Raising FinaleBloomberg Markets · 02 Oct 2026 · EN
- Legal challenges could prolong Manchester City saga for yearsThe Japan Times · 01 Oct 2026 · EN
- The latest in the legal saga for youth gender-affirming care in the U.S.STAT News · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- PM distances govt from Vorapak sagaBangkok Post · 17 Sept 2026 · EN
- 170-year-old whiskey brand's saga adds forced Chapter 7 bankruptcyYahoo Finance — News · 17 Sept 2026 · EN
- Saga redenumirii Centrului cultural Kennedy: un judecător respinge iar adăugarea numelui lui Trump pe clădire. Apar riscuri financiareDigi24 · 15 Sept 2026 · RO
- FirstRand Sees Aldermore Sale by Year-End After UK Car-Loan SagaBloomberg Markets · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- UMNO now backs contender to Negeri Sembilan throne in twist to royal sagaThe Straits Times — Asia · 08 Sept 2026 · EN
- West Ham Takeover Saga Sees Sullivan and Kretinsky Raise StakesBloomberg Markets · 04 Sept 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202627 May 2026
- Annual report 202520 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-01-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Saga plc · 31 Jan 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.