olivLaw · European equity research
Socfinasia S.A. SCFNS.LU
Luxembourg · Luxembourg Stock Exchange · Vertical: Listed companies from Luxembourg
Socfinasia S.A. is a Luxembourg holding company that controls oil palm and rubber plantations in South-East Asia through subsidiaries in Indonesia and Cambodia. It matters now because its income depends on palm oil prices, Indonesia's biofuel policy and political instability in the region.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Socfinasia S.A. (SCFNS.LU) stock was 24.40 EUR (−2.40% on the day), with market capitalisation 477.9 m EUR, P/E 7.8 on diluted EPS of 3.11 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 16.39%, beta 0.17, 52-week range 22.40–28.40 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 50.9
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 22.61 – 25.67
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.58 · band width 12.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 24.38 / 25.39
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.06 / 0.01
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +2.5% | +0.4% | +2.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | 0.0% | −3.3% | +3.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −9.0% | +4.0% | −12.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | −2.4% | +8.1% | −10.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | +7.0% | +10.7% | −3.7 pp | −12.8% |
| 3 years | +53.5% | +50.1% | +3.4 pp | +38.8% |
| 5 years | +44.4% | +43.6% | +0.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 5.0, median 6.6, max 6.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 202.0 m | 178.5 m | 186.4 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −11.6% | +4.4% |
| Net income | 47.9 m | 46.1 m | 60.9 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −3.8% | +32.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.45 | 2.35 | 3.11 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −4.1% | +32.3% |
| net % | 23.7% | 25.8% | 32.7% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 149.0 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 242.5 m EUR
- Total assets
- 361.2 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 2.22x
- ROE
- 24.5%
- ROA
- 16.8%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 202.0 m | 178.5 m | 186.4 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Operating income | 55.7 m | 62.0 m | 76.3 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 8.8 m | 7.5 m | 8.1 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 73.8 m | 65.5 m | 87.2 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Net income | 47.9 m | 46.1 m | 60.9 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.45 | 2.35 | 3.11 | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 3.00 | 3.50 | 4.00 | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 94.6 m | 114.6 m | 149.0 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Inventories | 15.9 m | 16.9 m | 21.8 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Current assets | 145.4 m | 145.8 m | 177.1 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 41.0 m | 39.2 m | 41.8 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 237.8 k | 301.9 k | 330.7 k | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Total assets | 418.6 m | 363.4 m | 361.2 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 9.4 m | 0 | — | esef· 09 Jul 2024verified |
| Current liabilities | 89.6 m | 69.3 m | 79.6 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Equity | 280.0 m | 255.6 m | 242.5 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 19.6 m | 19.6 m | 19.6 m | esef· 21 May 2025derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 477.9 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
27% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 23.44 – 74.18 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E23.44 – 28.78 (Mid 25.05)4 companies used · median multiple 8.1x · quartiles 7.5x – 9.3xFTXHG.LU, ORCL.LU, REINI.LU, SOFAF.LU
- Dividend discount (DDM)54.40 – 74.18 (Mid 62.77)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 32.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 23% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 9.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 23% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 7.8x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 38% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
SOCFINASIA S.A. (SCFNS.LU). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 186.4 m EUR in 2024; YoY growth 4.4%; net margin 32.7%; ROE 25.2%.
The estimated value range is 38.92–51.48 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 43.91 EUR, the price of 24.40 EUR leaves a potential of 80.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 44.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 32.7%
- Interest coverage: 9.5x
- Current ratio: 2.2x
- P/E (TTM): 7.8x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Luxembourg · same country · compared with 4 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REINI.LUReinet Investments S.c.a. | 4.4 bn | 8.6 | 8.7% | 99.4% | unavailable | +1% / +26% |
| ORCL.LUCpi Fim SA | 887.8 m | 11.3 | 5.4% | 53.0% | +167.3% | −31% / +51% |
| SCFNS.LUSocfinasia S.A. | 477.9 m | 7.8 | 25.2% | 32.7% | +4.4% | −2% / +63% |
| SOFAF.LUSocfinaf S.A. | 428.7 m | 7.5 | 14.5% | 9.6% | +5.0% | −3% / +126% |
| FTXHG.LUFotex Holding | 77.4 m | 7.5 | 5.4% | 25.5% | +0.5% | −22% / −40% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SCFNS.LU from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 14.41 Total return -31% · Per year -31% | 25.48 Total return 18% · Per year 18% | 38.38 Total return 73% · Per year 73% |
| 3 years | 13.97 Total return -13% · Per year -5% | 27.79 Total return 56% · Per year 16% | 45.96 Total return 141% · Per year 34% |
| 5 years | 13.54 Total return 4% · Per year 1% | 30.31 Total return 97% · Per year 15% | 55.04 Total return 222% · Per year 26% |
- Exit P/E± 6.95
- Net margin± 4.86
- Annual revenue growth± 3.99
- Annual dilution± 0.41
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Socfinasia S.A. is a Luxembourg holding company that controls oil palm and rubber plantations in South-East Asia through subsidiaries in Indonesia and Cambodia. It matters now because its income depends on palm oil prices, Indonesia's biofuel policy and political instability in the region.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has integrated plantations and a long history in the region, and its subsidiaries generate steady dividends for the parent.
- Capital is spread across several subsidiaries in which the company holds majority or minority stakes, giving geographic diversification.
- The company reports its activity and financial indicators transparently over consecutive years, which makes comparison easier.
Weaknesses
- Revenue is concentrated in one product, palm oil, which exposes results to price swings.
- Dependence on subsidiary dividends means the parent's cash flow relies on decisions taken beyond its direct control.
- Operations are concentrated in a few countries with fragile economies, which limits flexibility in a shock.
Opportunities
- Global demand for vegetable oils could rise, and biofuel programmes can support prices.
- Better yields through fertilisation and favourable weather could raise output per hectare.
- Young plantations maturing could add volume in later years if expected yields are confirmed.
Threats
- Political and economic instability in Indonesia and Cambodia could affect investments and the repatriation of funds.
- Cheaper alternative vegetable oils could limit palm oil price gains.
- Geopolitical and trade tensions could disrupt export flows and raise market volatility.
Risks
- Political risk in South-East Asiahigh
Investments in Indonesia and Cambodia are exposed to political and economic changes, which could affect the value of the holdings 1.
- Palm oil pricehigh
Revenue depends on international palm oil prices, which are volatile and shaped by policy and competition from other vegetable oils 1.
- Dependence on subsidiary dividendsmedium
The parent depends on subsidiary dividends to fund shareholder distributions, and a reduction could strain cash flow 1.
- Carrying value of biological assetsmedium
Plantations are carried at cost less depreciation, and a change in assumptions on prices or cash flows could alter reported values 1.
- Currency exposurelow
Much of the activity runs in US dollars and local currencies, and currency moves could affect results reported in euro 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If Indonesia's biofuel programme is fully applied, domestic demand could support palm oil prices and group revenue.
- The company has steady dividends from subsidiaries and a consistent distribution policy, which could attract income-oriented investors.
- Young plantations entering production could lift volumes in later years if yields are confirmed.
What would break the thesis
- Political instability in the region could reduce the value of investments or delay repatriation of dividends.
- If alternative vegetable oils remain cheaper, palm oil prices could stay under pressure.
- Rising global output alongside limited land could create an imbalance that affects medium-term margins.
What to watch
- Evolution of the CIF Rotterdam palm oil price2025
- Implementation of Indonesia's B40 mandate2025
- Level of dividends received from subsidiaries in the next annual reportnext 10-K
- Political stability in Indonesia and Cambodia2025
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Socfinasia S.A. is a Luxembourg-based company holding interests in agricultural companies in Asia. According to the 2024 annual report, the parent received dividends of EUR 61,274,353 from its subsidiaries in 2024, making dividend distribution its main source of income. Share capital stood at EUR 24,492,825, represented by 19,594,260 shares without nominal value.
Segments
Rubber
Rubber brings turnover of EUR 26 million in 2024, with own production of 16,454 tonnes. The activity is smaller than palm oil but grew compared with the previous year 1.
Market context
Trends
- Indonesia B40 biofuel programmetailwind
The Indonesian B40 mandate could boost palm oil consumption by 2 million tonnes, reducing export availability and potentially driving prices higher 1.
- Competition from soybean oilheadwind
South American soybean oil was less volatile in 2024 and could limit palm oil price increases, especially if trade tensions between the US and China affect exports 1.
- Political and economic instability in Asiaheadwind
Investments in Indonesia and Cambodia carry risks linked to political and economic instability, and geopolitical tensions have raised market volatility since 2022 1.
- Responsible management policymixed
The group has expanded its responsible management policy, with more reporting on the environment and local communities, which could influence access to financing and reputation 1.
Competitive position
Socfinasia competes in the global palm oil and natural rubber markets, where prices are shaped by large producers in Indonesia and Malaysia and by alternative vegetable oils. The annual report does not name competitors, so these comparisons are general 1.
- Indonesian palm oil producers
Competition on volumes and prices in the world's largest palm oil producer, cited in the annual report.
- Malaysian palm oil producers
Competition in a market that together with Indonesia controls most global output.
- South American soybean oil producers
Cheaper alternative that can shape importer preferences and palm oil prices.
- Asian natural rubber producers
Competition on natural rubber prices traded in Asian markets.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202421 May 2025
- Annual report 202309 Jul 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Socfinasia S.A. · 31 Dec 2024
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.