olivLaw · European equity research
S4 Capital plc SFOR.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00BFZZM640 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
S4 Capital is a UK digital marketing and advertising group that focuses its strategy on technology-led services and artificial intelligence. Amid more cautious client spending, the group aims to improve its operational EBITDA margin and reduce net debt, which makes its trajectory worth watching.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, S4 Capital plc (SFOR.L) stock was 0.40 GBP (−4.10% on the day), with market capitalisation 266.8 m GBP, dividend yield 2.29%, beta 1.11, 52-week range 0.16–0.55 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 38.1
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.38 – 0.55
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.11 · band width 36.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 0.47 / 0.38
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.02 / -0.01
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −12.5% | −0.6% | −11.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −26.7% | −4.2% | −22.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | −4.8% | +4.3% | −9.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +95.1% | +7.5% | +87.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +83.0% | +9.9% | +73.1 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | −41.1% | +49.8% | −90.9 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | −94.7% | +42.8% | −137.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.0 bn | 848.2 m | 754.8 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −16.1% | −11.0% |
| Net income | -14.3 m | -306.9 m | -24.8 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.02 | -0.46 | -0.04 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -1.4% | -36.2% | -3.3% |
| Free cash flow | -16.6 m | 80.1 m | 121.8 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 240.8 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 324.5 m GBP
- Net debt
- 83.7 m GBP
- Equity
- 506.0 m GBP
- Total assets
- 1.3 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.64x
- Current ratio
- 1.28x
- ROE
- -4.6%
- ROA
- -1.8%
- FCF margin
- 16.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.0 bn | 848.2 m | 754.8 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 20.2 m | -302.8 m | 2.7 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 77.9 m | 373.5 m | 67.3 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 98.1 m ≈ | 70.7 m ≈ | 70.0 m ≈ | esef· 29 Apr 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 38.2 m | 31.7 m | 28.6 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -13.9 m | -330.9 m | -23.8 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 400.0 k | -24.0 m | 1.0 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | -14.3 m | -306.9 m | -24.8 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.02 | -0.46 | -0.04 | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 0.00 | 0.01 | esef· 29 Apr 2026derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 145.7 m | 168.4 m | 240.8 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 407.5 m | 450.8 m | 374.2 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 558.1 m | 628.8 m | 619.0 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 21.9 m | 16.4 m | 9.9 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 691.3 m | 391.2 m | 381.0 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 381.6 m | 315.2 m | 258.4 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.7 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 418.1 m | 482.0 m | 452.9 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 200.0 k | 200.0 k | 100.0 k | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 320.9 m | 307.2 m | 324.4 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 454.6 m | 504.0 m | 482.7 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 845.4 m | 867.8 m | 841.6 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 891.9 m | 577.5 m | 506.0 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 650.0 m | 671.6 m | 670.3 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -10.7 m | 84.1 m | 124.1 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 5.9 m | 4.0 m | 2.3 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -16.6 m ≈ | 80.1 m ≈ | 121.8 m ≈ | esef· 29 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -13.3 m | -12.3 m | -3.0 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -43.0 m | -44.5 m | -43.4 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | — | 0 | 6.1 m | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 2.5 m | 0 | esef· 29 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 56 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 266.8 m GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Quality20
- Returns60
- Balance sheet48
- Valuation95
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 56/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 0.3% | 17 (vs peers) | 16% |
| Net margin · Quality | -3.3% | 26 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 1.2x | 80 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 0.1x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 40 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 5.0x | 91 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 45.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.3% | 33 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 5.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet48/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality20/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns60/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation95/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
S4 CAPITAL PLC (SFOR.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 754.8 m GBP in 2025; YoY growth -11.0%; net margin -3.3%; ROE -4.6%; net debt/EBITDA 1.2x.
The estimated value range is 1.19–1.88 GBP per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 1.45 GBP, the price of 0.40 GBP leaves a potential of 265.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 72.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 56/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net debt / EBITDA: 1.2x
- EV/EBITDA: 5.0x
- FCF yield: 45.7%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 5.0%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 0.3%
- Net margin: -3.3%
- Interest coverage: 0.1x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| SFOR.LS4 Capital PLC | 266.8 m | — | -4.6% | -3.3% | −11.0% | +133% / −13% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SFOR.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
S4 Capital is a UK digital marketing and advertising group that focuses its strategy on technology-led services and artificial intelligence. Amid more cautious client spending, the group aims to improve its operational EBITDA margin and reduce net debt, which makes its trajectory worth watching.1
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has stable relationships with scaled clients and a talent base that management regards as strong.1
- The undrawn revolving credit facility and disciplined capital allocation support financial flexibility.1
- The Monks.Flow product aligns services with AI and offers differentiation from competitors.1
Weaknesses
- Client demand is concentrated in certain sectors, so the loss of a large client could have material financial effects.1
- Inconsistent practices during the financial and operational transformation can increase forecast variability.1
- Fragmented technology and data systems can raise costs and reduce internal efficiency.1
Opportunities
Risks
- Client spending cutshigh
Macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds could lead clients to reduce spend, which could limit new business opportunities.1
- Forecast variabilitymedium
Inconsistent practices during the transition period could increase the variability of financial forecasts.1
- Talent managementmedium
Inadequate management of the talent lifecycle could lead to skill gaps or the loss of key personnel.1
- Client concentrationhigh
If a relationship with a major client breaks down suddenly, the group could suffer material financial disruption.1
- Information security and data privacymedium
Insufficient controls could lead to security breaches, non-compliance with client contracts or regulatory sanctions.1
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Management expresses confidence in the strategy and the scaled client base, and its long-term margin objective is ambitious yet clearly defined.1
- If the 2025 cost actions are fully reflected in 2026, profitability could rise even with weaker revenue.1
- The capital allocation policy, which prioritises dividends and debt reduction, could strengthen the balance sheet as net debt falls.1
What would break the thesis
- Clients are expected to remain cautious in the near term, and first-quarter 2026 revenue could be weaker than the prior year.1
- AI can change traditional commercial models, and the group may need continuous investment to adapt.1
- In the downside scenario, a significant fall in demand could reduce revenue, and cost savings might not fully offset it.1
What to watch
- Like-for-like net revenue performance in the first quarter, affected by the Middle East conflictQ1 2026
- Delivery of the operational EBITDA margin target for 20262026
- Reduction of net debt against the 2026 target range2026
- Development of the number of scaled clients and revenue concentrationnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
S4 Capital plc operates in the digital marketing and advertising sector, aiming for sustainable long-term growth. According to the 2025 annual report, its capital allocation policy prioritises dividends first, then debt repurchases and finally share repurchases as net debt falls further.1
The group created a global Enterprise Risk Management framework in 2023, and each principal risk is owned by a senior leader. The Audit and Risk Committee oversees these processes, and the Board has approved the principal risks.1
For the three years from 2026, management assesses viability through a downside scenario in which demand declines significantly. The group holds a fully undrawn revolving credit facility of 100 million pounds, which supports liquidity in that scenario.1
Segments
Digital and marketing services for scaled clients
The group aims to increase the number of scaled clients to reduce concentration risk. Its market strategy centres on the recently launched go-to-market proposition.1
AI-based products
The flagship Monks.Flow product aligns marketers with AI and is being rolled out to new and existing clients. Investment in this product responds to technological pressure on industry business models.1
Market context
Management expects clients to remain cautious in the near term because of macroeconomic uncertainty linked to the conflict in the Middle East. Technology clients are prioritising AI-related capital expenditure over operating spend such as marketing.1
The industry is marked by rapid technological advances, shifting consumer preferences and low barriers to entry, which can pressure margins. If these trends intensify, the group's growth could lag the market.1
Trends
- Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertaintyheadwind
The conflict in the Middle East could lead clients to reduce spend and limit new business opportunities. Management expects like-for-like net revenue to be down in the first quarter of 2026.1
- Artificial intelligence as a disruptive technologymixed
AI can alter standard commercial models in the industry and change the need for specific teams. The group responds with investment in Monks.Flow and training programmes.1
- AI-oriented technology spendingheadwind
Technology clients are shifting budgets toward AI capital investment, which could reduce marketing budgets. If this persists, revenue pressure could continue.1
- Cost reduction and operational efficiencytailwind
The 2025 cost actions are expected to be fully reflected in 2026, supporting the operational EBITDA margin. The group also aims to simplify its fragmented technology and data platforms.1
Competitive position
Competitive risk is high because competing offerings are multiplying and barriers to entry are low, which could limit new opportunities and erode margins. The group responds by focusing on leading-edge services, especially AI and Monks.Flow.1
The group differentiates itself through relationships with scaled clients and its integrated digital service offering. The analysed sources do not name direct competitors, so the list below is limited.1
- Digital marketing and advertising firms
The source does not name competitors; competitive risk is described only generically through multiple competing offerings and low barriers to entry.1
- Technology firms developing AI tools
The group works with key technology companies on AI tools, and such firms could also become competitors in services.1
- Integrated advertising agencies
The source mentions the risk of limited new opportunities in the context of general industry competition.1
- Digital service providers with consulting offerings
The source refers to general industry competition without naming these firms individually.1
News & filings
In the press
- [FORUM] S4 Capital chairman says AI forces business reset, calls for faster executionKorea Times — Business · 09 Jun 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202529 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202529 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202429 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / S4 Capital plc · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.