olivLaw · European equity research
TP ICAP GROUP PLC TCAP.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
TP ICAP is a global inter-dealer broker that connects institutional clients to liquidity in capital, energy and commodities markets and sells market data through Parameta Solutions. Its relevance now comes from growth in market data and digital assets, where it positions itself through Fusion Digital Assets.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, TP ICAP GROUP PLC (TCAP.L) stock was 3.16 GBP (−0.94% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.3 bn GBP, P/E 13.1 on diluted EPS of 0.24 GBP over the last 12 months, beta 0.50, 52-week range 2.41–3.55 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 40.8
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 3.14 – 3.29
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.12 · band width 4.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 3.26 / 3.10
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.02 / -0.02
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −2.8% | −0.6% | −2.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −0.5% | −4.2% | +3.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | −0.3% | +4.3% | −4.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +21.8% | +7.5% | +14.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | +26.0% | +9.9% | +16.1 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +87.9% | +49.8% | +38.0 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | +128.5% | +42.8% | +85.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 67 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 10.7, median 12.1, max 21.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +2.8% | +4.4% |
| Net income | 74.0 m | 167.0 m | 186.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +125.7% | +11.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.09 | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +129.0% | +13.6% |
| net % | 3.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% |
| Free cash flow | 274.0 m | 344.0 m | 186.0 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 936.0 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 769.0 m GBP
- Net debt
- -167.0 m GBP
- Equity
- 2.0 bn GBP
- Total assets
- 8.2 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.38x
- Current ratio
- 1.20x
- ROE
- 9.0%
- ROA
- 2.5%
- FCF margin
- 7.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 125.0 m | 236.0 m | 264.0 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 63.0 m | 64.0 m | 70.0 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 96.0 m | 214.0 m | 230.0 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 40.0 m | 63.0 m | 61.0 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 74.0 m | 167.0 m | 186.0 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.09 | 0.21 | 0.24 | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 936.0 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 2.3 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.9 bn | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 4.1 bn | 4.4 bn | 6.1 bn | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 92.0 m | 80.0 m | 65.0 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 6.2 bn | 6.4 bn | 8.2 bn | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 2.4 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.8 bn | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 93.0 m | 7.0 m | 25.0 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 744.0 m | 744.0 m | 744.0 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 3.1 bn | 3.4 bn | 5.1 bn | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 4.1 bn | 4.4 bn | 6.1 bn | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 778.9 m | 755.7 m | 738.1 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 286.0 m | 353.0 m | 191.0 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 12.0 m | 9.0 m | 5.0 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 274.0 m ≈ | 344.0 m ≈ | 186.0 m ≈ | esef· 09 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 15.0 m | -30.0 m | -54.0 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -130.0 m | -277.0 m | -264.0 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.3 bn GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
52% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 10.7% | 46 (vs peers) | 20% |
| Net margin · Quality | 7.9% | 43 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 100.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.8x | 35 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.2x | 33 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 13.1x | 72 (vs peers) | 20% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 8.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet34/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality60/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation84/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
TP ICAP GROUP PLC (TCAP.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.4 bn GBP in 2025; YoY growth 4.4%; net margin 7.9%; ROE 9.1%.
The estimated value range is 3.34–4.87 GBP per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 4.04 GBP, the price of 3.16 GBP leaves a potential of 27.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 21.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 52.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 100.0%
- P/E (TTM): 13.1x
- FCF yield: 8.0%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| TCAP.LTp Icap Group PLC | 2.3 bn | 13.1 | 9.1% | 7.9% | +4.4% | +24% / +71% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TCAP.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 1.95 Total return -38% · Per year -38% | 3.44 Total return 9% · Per year 9% | 5.18 Total return 64% · Per year 64% |
| 3 years | 1.89 Total return -40% · Per year -16% | 3.75 Total return 19% · Per year 6% | 6.20 Total return 96% · Per year 25% |
| 5 years | 1.83 Total return -42% · Per year -10% | 4.09 Total return 29% · Per year 5% | 7.43 Total return 135% · Per year 19% |
- Exit P/E± 0.94
- Net margin± 0.66
- Annual revenue growth± 0.54
- Annual dilution± 0.06
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
TP ICAP is a global inter-dealer broker that connects institutional clients to liquidity in capital, energy and commodities markets and sells market data through Parameta Solutions. Its relevance now comes from growth in market data and digital assets, where it positions itself through Fusion Digital Assets 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Leading global position in inter-dealer broking, with coverage across many asset classes and five established brands 1.
- Model without proprietary trading supports a low-risk profile and solid cash generation 1.
- Parameta Solutions has exclusive access to OTC datasets, an advantage that is hard to replicate 1.
Weaknesses
- Revenues depend largely on traded volumes, which can fall in quiet market periods 1.
- Exposure to the dollar and other currencies creates volatility in reported results, which the group has begun to hedge 1.
- The data segment makes up a small part of revenue, so its contribution to growth is still limited for now 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Transaction execution and processing riskmedium
Operational errors in execution, payment or reporting could cause losses and affect client reputation 1.
- Regulatory riskhigh
Failure to comply with changing requirements could bring sanctions and restrictions on the business model 1.
- Cyber riskhigh
A successful attack on critical infrastructure could disrupt activity and expose sensitive data 1.
- People riskmedium
Difficulty retaining and recruiting staff with specialist skills during transformation could affect strategy execution 1.
- Change and M&A riskmedium
The high volume of strategic initiatives and acquisitions could exceed the capacity to manage change 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for market data and digital asset infrastructure keeps growing, the group's diversified revenues could accelerate 1.
- The capital-light model and cash generation could support dividends and buybacks in line with the stated policy 1.
- Cost savings and release of surplus cash, if delivered, could improve operating margins 1.
What to watch
- Progress toward releasing at least £200m of surplus cash2027
- Delivery of at least £50m of annualised savings2027
- Trading volumes on Fusion Digital Assets after the switch to a matched principal modelnext 10-K
- Launch of the UK digital asset regime and its effect on institutional participation2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The group describes itself as the world's largest inter-dealer broker by revenue, with operations in 28 countries and leading positions in energy and commodities, agency execution and OTC data 1. The model is capital-light with no proprietary trading, brokers acting solely as intermediaries 1. In 2025 revenues rose 4% on a reported basis, adjusted EBIT reached £348m and the adjusted margin was 14.8% 1.
Approximately 63% of revenue is denominated in US dollars, with the rest in euros, sterling and other currencies 1. The company operates four execution models: name passing, matched principal, executing broker and introducing broker 1. The dividend policy is to pay 50% of adjusted post-tax profit, and about £600m of buybacks and dividends were delivered or announced over three years 1.
Strategy rests on three pillars: diversification across clients, products and regions, transformation of operations, and dynamic capital management 1. Targets include releasing at least £200m of surplus cash by the end of 2027 and at least £50m of annualised savings by 2027 1.
Segments
Market context
The UK remains the largest FX centre, with average daily turnover of $4,745bn in April 2025, or 38% of global turnover 1. The global market data spend hit a record $44bn, rising 6.4%, and real-time and trading data is the largest segment at 38% of spend 1.
The source notes that APAC markets are developing rapidly and that demand for data and digital assets grows with institutional adoption and regulatory clarity 1. Market growth could support trading volumes, but also brings stricter regulatory scrutiny 1.
Trends
- Rising demand for market datatailwind
Data spend is rising and AI increases demand for enriched data sets; if this trend continues, Parameta Solutions could benefit 1.
- Adoption of digital assetstailwind
Stablecoins and digital asset ETPs are growing, and regulation in the UK and US could open institutional participation; Fusion Digital Assets is positioned for this 1.
- Artificial intelligence in operationsmixed
AI cuts electronic product build times and improves broker productivity, but also requires stricter governance and cybersecurity 1.
- Macro and geopolitical volatilitymixed
Revenues depend on transaction volumes, which reflect overall market conditions; volatility can support activity but also raises operational and regulatory risks 1.
Competitive position
The source does not explicitly name the group's competitors, but describes its leading position in inter-dealer broking and OTC data 1. Competition could arise in electronic platforms, data providers and new digital asset venues 1.
Differentiation rests on five market-leading brands, long-standing institutional relationships and a model without proprietary trading 1. Parameta Solutions has exclusive access to the group's OTC dataset, which could limit competitive pressure in that segment 1.
- Market data and analytics providers
The source refers to data providers expecting sustained demand for AI-enhanced data sets, without naming them 1.
- Electronic execution platforms
The group extends its Fusion platform and electronic execution, which competes with other trading venues not detailed in the source 1.
- Digital asset trading venues
Fusion Digital Assets competes in a growing market for institutional digital asset trading, with no other names given in the source 1.
- Other inter-dealer and capital markets brokers
The group is compared with other market brokers, but the source does not name direct competitors or give comparative data 1.
News & filings
In the press
- TP ICAP Initiates Coverage of Alter Ego Media With a “Buy” Rating and €8.30 Price TargetTo Vima International (GR, EN) · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Analiză ICAP CRIF: Economia României ar putea creşte cu 2,5% în 2027, după un an 2026 sufocantZiarul Financiar · 29 Sept 2026 · RO
- Analiză ICAP CRIF: Firmele din România și-au plătit facturile, în medie, în 144 de zile anul trecutEconomedia · 11 Aug 2026 · RO
- ICAP CRIF: Companiile din România au avut nevoie, în medie, de 144 de zile pentru plata unei facturi în 2025 – Diferențe semnificative între domenii de activitateCursDeGuvernare.ro · 11 Aug 2026 · RO
- ICAP CRIF, lider în soluții de risc de credit și informații de afaceri, devine Membru Afiliat al ARIRMoney.ro · 10 Jun 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202509 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202413 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / TP ICAP GROUP PLC · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.