olivLaw · European equity research
Telenor ASA TEL.OL
Norway · Euronext Oslo Børs · ISIN NO0010063308 · Vertical: Listed companies from Norway
Telenor ASA is a telecom operator with businesses in the Nordic countries, Denmark and Finland, as well as Asia through Grameenphone, CelcomDigi and True. Against the backdrop of asset disposals in Asia and consolidation in the Nordics, the group focuses its strategy on customers, technology and return on capital employed. Total revenues in 2025 were 77 NOK bn.
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, Telenor ASA (TEL.OL) stock was 134.50 NOK (−1.47% on the day), with market capitalisation 184.1 bn NOK, P/E 26.2 on diluted EPS of 5.14 NOK over the last 12 months, dividend yield 7.14%, beta 0.10, 52-week range 124.20–177.10 NOK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 64.0
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 121.29 – 135.92
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.90 · band width 11.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 130.28 / 148.25
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.49 / 0.38
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +5.7% | −0.6% | +6.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −0.1% | −4.2% | +4.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −12.8% | +4.3% | −17.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | −8.3% | +7.5% | −15.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | −10.5% | +9.9% | −20.4 pp | −4.7% |
| 3 years | +16.0% | +49.8% | −33.8 pp | +12.7% |
| 5 years | −1.6% | +42.8% | −44.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 50 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 9.5, median 19.0, max 28.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 75.5 bn | 76.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +1.4% |
| Net income | 18.3 bn | 7.0 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −61.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 13.32 | 5.14 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −61.4% |
| net % | 24.3% | 9.2% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 16.3 bn NOK
- Financial debt
- 86.8 bn NOK
- Net debt
- 70.5 bn NOK
- Equity
- 75.6 bn NOK
- Total assets
- 221.7 bn NOK
- Debt / equity
- 1.15x
- Current ratio
- 0.69x
- ROE
- 8.9%
- ROA
- 3.1%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (NOK)
Margins
Income statement · NOK
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 75.5 bn | 76.5 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 17.9 bn | 18.0 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 15.9 bn | 16.3 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 33.8 bn ≈ | 34.3 bn ≈ | esef· 21 Oct 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 4.3 bn | 3.7 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 23.8 bn | 13.5 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 3.7 bn | 4.4 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 18.3 bn | 7.0 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 13.32 | 5.14 | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 9.50 | 9.60 | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · NOK
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 10.4 bn | 16.3 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Receivables | 13.8 bn | 13.7 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 877.0 m | 862.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 27.5 bn | 31.9 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 54.7 bn | 51.6 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 26.3 bn | 26.8 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 9.5 bn | 9.4 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 228.8 bn | 221.7 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 22.8 bn | 21.2 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 11.4 bn | 12.6 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 72.7 bn | 74.2 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 46.4 bn | 46.3 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 81.8 bn | 75.6 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · NOK
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 41 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 184.1 bn NOK
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Quality55
- Returns2
- Balance sheet31
- Valuation53
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 41/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 8.1% | 45 (vs peers) | 16% |
| Net margin · Quality | 9.2% | 71 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 2.1x | 30 (vs peers) | 16% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.9x | 52 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.7x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 26.2x | 35 (vs peers) | 16% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 7.4x | 71 (vs peers) | 16% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.1% | 2 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet31/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality55/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial2/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation53/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
TELENOR ASA (TEL.OL). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 76.5 bn NOK in 2025; YoY growth 1.4%; net margin 9.2%; ROE 9.6%; net debt/EBITDA 2.1x.
The estimated value range is 94.17–162.38 NOK per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 104.08 NOK, the price of 134.50 NOK leaves a potential of -22.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -29.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 41/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 9.2%
- EV/EBITDA: 7.4x
What contradicts it
- Net debt / EBITDA: 2.1x
- Current ratio: 0.7x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.1%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Norway · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEL.OLTelenor Asa | 184.1 bn | 26.2 | 9.6% | 9.2% | +1.4% | −8% / +16% |
| AKER.OLAker Asa | 79.8 bn | 20.3 | 7.9% | 21.4% | +42.5% | +36% / +59% |
| AFG.OLAf Gruppen Asa | 21.5 bn | 19.8 | 39.7% | 3.4% | +4.4% | +8% / +69% |
| ELK.OLElkem Asa | 19.2 bn | 39.3 | 1.9% | 2.7% | −15.7% | +10% / +73% |
| ATEA.OLAtea Asa | 18.5 bn | 21.4 | 19.7% | 2.3% | +8.1% | +11% / +36% |
| AKSO.OLAker Solutions Asa | 17.4 bn | 6.8 | 22.5% | 4.1% | +19.2% | +18% / −12% |
| AUSS.OLAustevoll Seafood Asa | 16.6 bn | 37.1 | 1.6% | 1.1% | +11.1% | −7% / +10% |
| BRG.OLBorregaard Asa | 15.6 bn | 25.1 | 11.4% | 8.0% | +1.3% | −18% / −9% |
| BONHR.OLBonheur ASA | 11.2 bn | 7.8 | 17.1% | 11.4% | −10.8% | +17% / +44% |
| AFK.OLArendals Fossekompani Asa | 10.3 bn | — | -2.3% | -3.1% | −14.9% | +39% / +31% |
| B2I.OLB2 Impact Asa | 8.8 bn | 14.3 | 11.0% | 16.4% | +2.6% | +40% / +238% |
| AKVA.OLAkva Group Asa | 5.7 bn | 31.2 | 13.7% | 4.2% | +24.4% | +74% / +152% |
| ELMRA.OLElmera Group Asa | 5.1 bn | 32.0 | 10.5% | 1.3% | −0.9% | +32% / +98% |
| BOUV.OLBouvet Asa | 5.0 bn | 14.2 | 80.7% | 9.2% | −0.2% | −19% / −16% |
| CLOUD.OLCloudberry Clean Energy Asa | 4.0 bn | 61.9 | 1.3% | 13.1% | +34.0% | −5% / +29% |
| ABG.OLAbg Sundal Collier Holding Asa | 3.6 bn | 10.7 | 34.9% | 16.8% | +12.4% | −13% / +20% |
| ANDF.OLAndfjord Salmon Group As | 2.2 bn | — | -5.7% | -12,770.4% | +328.9% | −18% / −11% |
| BMA.OLByggma Asa | 1.6 bn | — | -25.3% | -11.9% | −2.5% | +61% / +15% |
| APR.OLAppear Asa | 1.4 bn | 10.5 | 30.1% | 16.1% | +32.3% | −53% / unavailable |
| AZT.OLArcticzymes Technologies Asa | 1.1 bn | 108.9 | 2.9% | 8.6% | +7.9% | −8% / −48% |
| CAPSL.OLCapsol Technologies Asa | 884.6 m | — | -89.4% | -114.8% | −25.0% | −33% / −66% |
| BOR.OLBorgestad Asa | 553.2 m | 36.1 | 2.1% | 1.4% | −3.0% | −7% / +41% |
| ARR.OLArribatec Group Asa | 234.6 m | 4.8 | 22.1% | 9.3% | +15.7% | −33% / −55% |
| DELIA.OLDellia Group Asa | 73.5 m | 1.5 | 22.6% | 7.7% | +140.0% | −62% / unavailable |
| ABTEC.OLAqua Bio Technology Asa | 11.1 m | 0.1 | — | 7,297.7% | −87.2% | −82% / −97% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TEL.OL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (NOK)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 77.03 Total return -40% · Per year -40% | 136.39 Total return 5% · Per year 5% | 205.73 Total return 58% · Per year 58% |
| 3 years | 70.18 Total return -39% · Per year -15% | 140.25 Total return 16% · Per year 5% | 232.93 Total return 88% · Per year 23% |
| 5 years | 63.94 Total return -39% · Per year -9% | 144.22 Total return 27% · Per year 5% | 263.73 Total return 123% · Per year 17% |
- Exit P/E± 35.06
- Net margin± 24.54
- Annual revenue growth± 20.76
- Annual dilution± 2.06
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Telenor ASA is a telecom operator with businesses in the Nordic countries, Denmark and Finland, as well as Asia through Grameenphone, CelcomDigi and True. Against the backdrop of asset disposals in Asia and consolidation in the Nordics, the group focuses its strategy on customers, technology and return on capital employed 1. Total revenues in 2025 were 77 NOK bn 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Solid market positions in the Nordics and Asia, modern networks with near-complete 5G coverage, and owned infrastructure of towers and data centres 1.
- A partner ecosystem, including a procurement partnership with Vodafone, and an execution culture the group highlights as a core asset 1.
- The ability to generate free cash flow and fund dividends and investments from stable operations 1.
Weaknesses
- Return on capital employed declined in 2025, pointing to pressure on asset returns 1.
- Exposure to Asian markets with high political and economic risk remains significant, although it is being reduced through disposals 1.
- Reliance on dividends from associated companies for the group's free cash flow 1.
Opportunities
- Growth in data centres and the AI factory could generate new revenue from security-sensitive customers 1.
- Integrating the GlobalConnect acquisition could strengthen the group's broadband position in Norway 1.
- Demand for secure defence and maritime communications could support growth in specialised businesses 1.
Risks
- Geopolitical riskhigh
Technology rivalry and conflicts in the Middle East could raise operating and financing costs and disrupt supply chains 1.
- Cybersecurity riskhigh
Ransomware and attacks on critical infrastructure could lead to data loss, fines and loss of customer trust 1.
- Intensifying competitionmedium
Aggressive promotions and the rise of virtual operators could reduce market share and service revenues 1.
- Political risk in Bangladeshmedium
Uncertainty about policy direction and delays in reforms could affect Grameenphone's operations and the value of the stake 1.
- Supply chain risklow
Rising complexity and restrictions could lead to higher costs, higher inventories and supply interruptions 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the transformation programme succeeds, lower fixed costs and growth in service and infrastructure revenues could support return on capital employed 1.
- Disposing of Asian assets and consolidating in the Nordics could simplify the group and reduce exposure to political risk 1.
- Building AI and data centre businesses could open new long-term revenue sources 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Completion of the sale of the True Corporation stake2026
- Integration of the GlobalConnect acquisition in Norway2026
- Start of operations of the Skygard data centre in Oslofirst half of 2026
- Development of service revenues and adjusted EBITDA in quarterly reportsQ1 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Telenor provides mobile and fixed connectivity, TV services and solutions for businesses, IoT and cybersecurity. Activities are organised in four areas: Telenor Nordics, Telenor Asia, Telenor Infrastructure and Telenor Amp 1. Mobile service revenues were 45 NOK bn of the 2025 total, and broadband and TV revenues 13 NOK bn 1.
In 2025, the group recorded organic service revenue growth of 2.0%, and adjusted EBITDA grew organically by 5.8% 1. Free cash flow including M&A was 17.3 NOK bn, compared with 13.3 NOK bn in 2024 1. Return on capital employed fell to 9.3% 1.
The strategy towards 2030 rests on growth through customer excellence, technology-led transformation, tapering operating and capital expenditure to sales, and disciplined portfolio management 1. The company describes itself as active in simplification and digitalisation, including AI and cloud 1.
Segments
Telenor Nordics
Operations in Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland, where the group holds leading positions in mobile and broadband. In Sweden, Telenor has a mobile revenue market share of 19% 1, and in Finland, through DNA, a mobile revenue share of 30% 1. 5G networks cover 99% of the Nordic population at year-end 2025 1.
Telenor Asia
Interests in Bangladesh, Malaysia and Thailand, accounting for about 18% of group revenues and 23% of adjusted EBITDA in 2025 1. Grameenphone has a subscriber market share of about 45% in Bangladesh 1, and CelcomDigi about 41% in Malaysia 1. The sale of Telenor Pakistan was completed in December 2025 1.
Market context
Nordic markets are mature, with intense competition on prices and promotions, and the rise of virtual operators and changing customer preferences may affect market shares 1. In Asia, growth is linked to the shift from voice to data, while political and regulatory risk remains elevated, especially in Bangladesh 1.
The acquisition of GlobalConnect's consumer fibre business in Norway, with around 140,000 customers, could raise Telenor's market share from 22% to 29% in the targeted segment 1. This points to a consolidation strategy in broadband in existing markets 1.
Trends
- Geopolitical tensions and regulationheadwind
US-China technology rivalry, sanctions and export controls can disrupt supply chains and raise compliance costs 1. The US and Israeli military operation against Iran added risks of energy price volatility and financing costs 1.
- Artificial intelligence and cloudtailwind
Telenor aims to become an AI-powered telco with cloud-native platforms and automation, which could lower costs and open new revenue from the AI factory and data centres 1.
- Consolidation in Asian marketsmixed
Mergers in Thailand and Malaysia created dominant operators, while the planned sale of the True stake may reduce the group's exposure to the region 1.
- Cybersecurity and defencetailwind
Cyber and hybrid threats have grown, and demand for secure communications and managed security services is rising, notably through KNL and Telenor Cyberdefence 1.
Competitive position
In the Nordics, Telenor competes with other large mobile and broadband operators as well as virtual operators, which can put pressure on prices and market shares 1. In Asia, competition is structured around leading positions, where consolidation has reduced the number of players 1.
In infrastructure and IoT, Telenor Connexion and Telenor Linx compete with global connectivity providers and data centre operators, a segment where competition depends on scale and technological capability 1.
- Tele2
Partner in the Net4Mobility shared network in Sweden, and a direct competitor in the Swedish mobile market 1.
- Telia
Partner in the shared mobile network in northern and eastern Finland, and a competitor across the Nordic markets 1.
- Norlys
Partner in the TN-Netværket network in Denmark and a competitor in telephony in that country 1.
- Nordic virtual network operators
New virtual operators are cited as a factor intensifying competition in the Nordic mobile market 1.
News & filings
In the press
- Telenor sees AI shoppers testing its premium mobile pitchCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- Red Hat OpenShift: Enabling a resilient 5G autonomous edge for Telenor with AxyomCoreRed Hat Blog · 06 Oct 2026 · EN
- Norway announces investigations into telecom Telenor’s work with Myanmar juntaThe Record (Recorded Future) · 15 Sept 2026 · EN
- Norway police investigate Telenor over suspected crimes against humanity in MyanmarThe Straits Times — Asia · 15 Sept 2026 · EN
- Pakistan telecom sector faces test after Telenor-Ufone mergerNikkei Asia · 31 Jul 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202521 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202521 Oct 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Telenor ASA · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.