olivLaw · European equity research
Thungela Resources TGA.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Thungela Resources is a South African thermal coal producer that sells mainly into export markets, with an Australian operation at Ensham. In 2025 the company reported a net loss as weak coal prices and a stronger rand weighed on earnings, while revenue fell 17% to R29.6 billion. The key question now is how the company manages margins and capital spending through this difficult cycle.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Thungela Resources (TGA.L) stock was 5.45 GBP (+1.11% on the day), with beta -0.28, 52-week range 3.34–8.12 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 37.9
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 5.39 – 6.89
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.04 · band width 24.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 5.99 / 5.73
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.06 / 0.08
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −2.3% | −0.6% | −1.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | +22.5% | −4.2% | +26.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | −11.5% | +4.3% | −15.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +28.2% | +7.5% | +20.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +63.2% | +9.9% | +53.3 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | −24.0% | +49.8% | −73.8 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | +71.4% | +42.8% | +28.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 30.6 bn | 35.6 bn | 29.6 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +16.1% | −16.7% |
| Net income | 5.2 bn | 3.6 bn | -7.1 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −30.4% | −297.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 3,692.00 | 2,642.00 | -5,378.00 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −28.4% | −303.6% |
| net % | 16.9% | 10.1% | -23.9% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 6.1 bn ZAR
- Financial debt
- unavailable ZAR
- Net debt
- unavailable ZAR
- Equity
- 16.2 bn ZAR
- Total assets
- 37.8 bn ZAR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.73x
- ROE
- -33.5%
- ROA
- -16.5%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (ZAR)
Margins
Income statement · ZAR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 30.6 bn | 35.6 bn | 29.6 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 6.5 bn | 4.1 bn | -10.7 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 7.2 bn | 5.0 bn | -8.0 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 2.2 bn | 1.5 bn | -889.0 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 5.2 bn | 3.6 bn | -7.1 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 3,692.00 | 2,642.00 | -5,378.00 | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · ZAR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 11.0 bn | 10.1 bn | 6.1 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 4.3 bn | 5.0 bn | 4.1 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 4.0 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.1 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 19.6 bn | 18.8 bn | 13.9 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 19.5 bn | 19.7 bn | 12.1 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 46.5 bn | 48.1 bn | 37.8 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 6.5 bn | 6.1 bn | 6.4 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 66.0 m | 0 | — | esef· 18 Mar 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 8.7 bn | 8.2 bn | 8.0 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 21.9 bn | 22.0 bn | 21.6 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 24.6 bn | 26.1 bn | 16.2 bn | esef· 24 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 1.4 m | 1.3 m | 1.3 m | esef· 24 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · ZAR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 2 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 10.4% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
10% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 10.4% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -23.9% | 17 (vs peers) | 60% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.7x | 77 (on a fixed band) | 40% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial77/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial17/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
THUNGELA RESOURCES (TGA.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 29.6 bn ZAR in 2025; YoY growth -16.7%; net margin -23.9%; ROE -34.1%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 10.4% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 1.7x
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -23.9%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
| AEP.LAnglo-Eastern Plantations PLC | — | — | 16.1% | 19.5% | +25.0% | +5% / +113% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TGA.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Thungela Resources is a South African thermal coal producer that sells mainly into export markets, with an Australian operation at Ensham. In 2025 the company reported a net loss as weak coal prices and a stronger rand weighed on earnings, while revenue fell 17% to R29.6 billion 1. The key question now is how the company manages margins and capital spending through this difficult cycle.
SWOT
Strengths
- A solid cash position at the end of 2025 and undrawn credit facilities that provide liquidity during periods of volatility 1.
- Operational performance above guidance at the South African operations, supported by productivity and rail improvements 1.
- A programme of cash collateralisation for environmental obligations, with environmental liability coverage rising from the prior year 1.
Weaknesses
- A net loss for 2025, largely driven by non-cash impairments, which shows how sensitive results are to prices 1.
- Most revenue is in dollars while costs are in local currencies, which leaves margins exposed to the exchange rate 1.
- Adjusted operating free cash flow was modest for the year and turned negative in the second half 1.
Opportunities
- If prices normalise, margins could recover and recently invested assets could generate higher revenue 1.
- Life-extension projects could sustain production over the long term if they are completed on plan 1.
- Portfolio optimisation, through the sale of end-of-life assets, could strengthen the balance sheet 1.
Risks
- Coal price riskhigh
Benchmark prices directly influence revenue and asset value, and a weak outlook could lead to further impairments.
- Currency riskhigh
The gap between dollar revenue and rand or Australian dollar costs can compress margins if the local currency strengthens.
- Transport riskmedium
Reliance on coal transport networks can limit export volumes.
- Safety and operational riskmedium
Underground incidents and geotechnical failures can interrupt production and raise costs.
- Environmental and regulatory riskmedium
Rehabilitation liabilities and guarantee requirements can raise cash needs, and legislative changes could add further obligations.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If supply discipline takes hold in the market, coal prices could recover, supporting revenue and margins.
- The net cash position and available liquidity give a margin of safety during volatile periods.
- Life-extension projects could support production over the long term if they are delivered as planned.
What would break the thesis
- Weak benchmark prices and soft demand in key markets could keep margins under pressure for an extended period.
- A stronger local currency can reduce revenue measured in local terms while costs stay high.
- Recent impairments indicate that some assets could earn lower returns than previously expected.
What to watch
- Movement of the Richards Bay and Newcastle benchmark prices2026
- Ramp-up of the Annea mine and reaching steady-state capacity2026
- Completion of the LCBM project and its gas-to-power installations2026
- Publication of the integrated annual report with detail on risks and resourcesApril 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Thungela Resources mines and sells thermal coal, with most sales made for export, from operations in South Africa and from the Ensham mine in Australia. For 2025 the company reported revenue of R29.6 billion, down from the prior year, and a net loss of R7.1 billion, which includes non-cash asset impairments 1. The company also manages mines nearing the end of their economic lives as part of its portfolio optimisation 1.
Revenue is largely earned in US dollars while operating costs are in South African rand or Australian dollars, so the exchange rate directly affects margins 1. Adjusted EBITDA fell to R1.2 billion in 2025, yet the company ended the year with net cash of R5.1 billion 1. Operational results exceeded guidance at the South African operations, which suggests that the main pressure comes from market prices rather than execution 1.
The company is investing in projects to extend mine lives, such as the Zibulo North Shaft and the Annea project, which is in ramp-up 1. Group capital expenditure was R3.1 billion in 2025 1. If the market stabilises, these projects could support longer-term production.
Segments
Market context
The medium-term outlook for coal prices has softened, partly because of higher domestic production in China and India 1. The company notes that a significant part of the seaborne market could be loss-making at current prices, which could lead to normalisation over the long term if supply discipline takes hold 1.
Trends
- Weaker coal pricesheadwind
Benchmark prices fell in 2025, and margin pressure continues because demand in key import markets remained weak 1.
- Stronger rand against the dollarheadwind
The rand appreciated against the dollar, which lowers the local-currency value of export receipts while costs remain in rand 1.
- Supply discipline in the markettailwind
The company suggests that if supply discipline takes hold, prices could normalise over the long term 1.
- Cost reduction programmemixed
The cost efficiency programme delivered approximately R700 million in cost reductions in 2025, supporting margins in a weak environment 1.
Competitive position
The company competes in the global seaborne thermal coal market, where prices are influenced by producers in Indonesia, Australia and South Africa 1. The supplied sources do not identify individual competitors in detail, so the comparison stays limited to the market factors the company describes 1.
Competitive position depends on cost per tonne and export logistics, and the company cited improved rail performance as a supporting factor 1. The size of its discount to benchmarks shows how sensitive realised prices remain to market conditions 1.
- Indonesian thermal coal producers
Named in the source as part of the oversupply in the seaborne market, without detail on individual companies.
- Australian thermal coal producers
Named in the source as a source of high production that contributed to the oversupply, without detail on individual companies.
- South African thermal coal producers
Named in the source alongside Indonesia and Australia, without identification of other companies in the source.
- Domestic producers in China and India
The source notes that higher domestic production in these countries affects the medium-term price outlook.
News & filings
In the press
- Thungela Weighs Opportunities to Invest in More Coal MinesBloomberg Markets · 17 Aug 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202524 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202418 Mar 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Thungela Resources · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.