olivLaw · European equity research
Thermador Groupe THEP.PA
France · Euronext Paris · ISIN FR0013333432 · Vertical: Listed companies from France
Thermador Groupe is a French group based in Lyon, active in distribution and installation products, now working to adapt to climate pressure and the cost of carbon. Its filings show a high free float and a planned governance change, with the chair and CEO roles to be separated from 2026.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Thermador Groupe (THEP.PA) stock was 63.40 EUR (+1.77% on the day), with market capitalisation 581.9 m EUR, P/E 13.9 on diluted EPS of 4.56 EUR over the last 12 months, beta 0.43, 52-week range 60.30–81.80 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 47.5
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 58.32 – 66.83
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.60 · band width 13.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 67.42 / 72.36
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.72 / -2.20
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −4.5% | −0.6% | −3.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −19.3% | −4.2% | −15.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −8.9% | +4.3% | −13.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | −18.2% | +7.5% | −25.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | −14.9% | +9.9% | −24.8 pp | −6.8% |
| 3 years | −11.7% | +49.8% | −61.5 pp | −15.9% |
| 5 years | −37.5% | +42.8% | −80.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 14.1, median 15.6, max 17.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 581.0 m | 503.9 m | 501.7 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −13.3% | −0.4% |
| Net income | 58.3 m | 44.7 m | 44.1 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −23.3% | −1.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 6.01 | 4.63 | 4.56 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −23.0% | −1.5% |
| net % | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 97.0 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 41.0 m EUR
- Net debt
- -55.9 m EUR
- Equity
- 406.5 m EUR
- Total assets
- 568.0 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.10x
- Current ratio
- 3.33x
- ROE
- 11.2%
- ROA
- 8.1%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 581.0 m | 503.9 m | 501.7 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 80.8 m | 60.2 m | 59.4 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 21.4 m | 15.8 m | 15.3 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 58.3 m | 44.7 m | 44.1 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 6.01 | 4.63 | 4.56 | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 35.2 m | 63.3 m | 97.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 191.7 m | 187.1 m | 175.8 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 337.6 m | 341.7 m | 367.6 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 79.0 m | 82.3 m | 89.7 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 20.2 m | 19.3 m | 24.9 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 522.0 m | 522.1 m | 568.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 7.7 m | 6.3 m | 8.5 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 27.4 m | 21.2 m | 32.6 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 119.7 m | 106.6 m | 110.3 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 358.8 m | 382.4 m | 406.5 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 9.2 m | 9.2 m | 9.2 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 581.9 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
31% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 50.58 – 135.89 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E50.58 – 135.89 (Mid 78.12)20 companies used · median multiple 17.1x · quartiles 11.1x – 29.8x74SW.PA, ABEO.PA, AC.PA, ADP.PA, AF.PA, AI.PA, ALBON.PA, ALCIS.PA, ALCLA.PA, ALFER.PA, ALHEX.PA, ALO.PA, ALPWG.PA, ALSOG.PA, ANTIN.PA, ARAMI.PA, ATE.PA, AUB.PA, AURE.PA, BB.PA
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 14.3% | 71 (vs peers) | 33% |
| Net margin · Quality | 8.8% | 90 (vs peers) | 20% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.3x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 13.9x | 65 (vs peers) | 33% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality78/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial65/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
THERMADOR GROUPE (THEP.PA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 501.7 m EUR in 2025; YoY growth -0.4%; net margin 8.8%; ROE 11.2%.
The estimated value range is 50.58–135.89 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 78.12 EUR, the price of 63.40 EUR leaves a potential of 23.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 18.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 14.3%
- Net margin: 8.8%
- Current ratio: 3.3x
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from France · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI.PAL'air Liquide Societe Anonyme Pour L'etude Et L'exploitation Des Procedes Georges Claude | 109.3 bn | 33.2 | 12.9% | 12.2% | −2.0% | +26% / +32% |
| AC.PAAccor | 13.8 bn | 30.7 | 9.6% | 8.0% | +0.6% | +6% / +56% |
| ADP.PAAeroports De Paris | 11.7 bn | 34.1 | 7.8% | 5.6% | +12.1% | −7% / +4% |
| AKE.PAArkema | 7.1 bn | 115.4 | 0.9% | 0.7% | −5.0% | +12% / −37% |
| ALO.PAAlstom | 5.8 bn | 18.3 | 3.1% | 1.7% | +3.7% | −51% / −4% |
| AF.PAAir France - Klm | 4.3 bn | 13.6 | — | 1.0% | +4.8% | +20% / +9% |
| ATE.PAAlten | 3.1 bn | 29.5 | 4.8% | 2.6% | −1.1% | +33% / −29% |
| BB.PASociete Bic | 2.7 bn | 31.3 | 5.0% | 4.1% | −4.8% | +32% / +5% |
| ANTIN.PAAntin Infrastructure Partners | 1.4 bn | 13.0 | 21.9% | 36.6% | −8.1% | −24% / −35% |
| 74SW.PA74software | 792.7 m | 20.9 | 8.9% | 8.5% | +44.8% | −13% / +41% |
| AUB.PAAubay | 667.4 m | 17.8 | 13.6% | 6.3% | +11.3% | +3% / +45% |
| THEP.PAThermador Groupe | 581.9 m | 13.9 | 11.2% | 8.8% | −0.4% | −16% / −17% |
| ASY.PAAssystem | 507.1 m | 69.9 | 2.5% | 1.1% | +7.4% | −19% / −18% |
| ATO.PAAtos Se | 483.0 m | — | -23,400.0% | -17.5% | −16.5% | −45% / −94% |
| ARAMI.PAAramis Group | 298.8 m | 15.0 | 10.0% | 0.8% | +6.3% | −33% / −16% |
| ARVEN.PAArverne Group | 246.1 m | — | -14.0% | -115.3% | +27.0% | +20% / −35% |
| BGO.PACompagnie Chargeurs Invest | 189.4 m | — | -8.6% | -5.7% | −2.9% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALCIS.PACatering International & Services | 145.0 m | 28.4 | 9.3% | 1.9% | +5.8% | +39% / +107% |
| ALCGM.PACegedim | 144.6 m | — | -2.6% | -1.2% | +10.9% | −26% / −49% |
| ATEME.PAAteme | 144.0 m | 151.3 | 2.8% | 1.0% | +2.2% | +82% / +77% |
| ALHEX.PAHexaom | 144.0 m | 6.7 | 9.9% | 2.2% | +13.1% | −32% / +7% |
| ALBON.PACompagnie Lebon | 111.7 m | 16.5 | 4.2% | 8.8% | −17.9% | +6% / +8% |
| ALHYF.PALhyfe | 75.8 m | — | -33.4% | -570.5% | +287.2% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALFER.PASergeferrari Group | 61.5 m | 11.5 | 5.1% | 1.5% | +7.4% | −33% / −27% |
| ABEO.PAAbeo | 60.8 m | 7.3 | 6.9% | 3.0% | +12.6% | −13% / −54% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for THEP.PA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 37.49 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 66.45 Total return 5% · Per year 5% | 100.32 Total return 58% · Per year 58% |
| 3 years | 32.88 Total return -48% · Per year -20% | 65.89 Total return 4% · Per year 1% | 109.71 Total return 73% · Per year 20% |
| 5 years | 28.83 Total return -55% · Per year -15% | 65.33 Total return 3% · Per year 1% | 119.98 Total return 89% · Per year 14% |
- Exit P/E± 16.47
- Net margin± 11.53
- Annual revenue growth± 9.93
- Annual dilution± 0.97
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Thermador Groupe is a French group based in Lyon, active in distribution and installation products, now working to adapt to climate pressure and the cost of carbon. Its filings show a high free float and a planned governance change, with the chair and CEO roles to be separated from 2026.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group holds a high level of inventory and an internal fibre network, which support business continuity 1.
- The shareholder structure shows a significant free float and a substantial share held by individual investors 1.
- The board has a diverse composition, with independent directors and a high level of meeting attendance 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Carbon taxhigh
If a high carbon tax were applied, operating costs could rise significantly, although the group considers that opportunities outweigh risks 1.
- Coppermedium
Lower copper availability and higher prices could affect margins and production planning 1.
- Climate-exposed suppliersmedium
Supplier sites are exposed to heat waves and extreme cold, which could interrupt supply 1.
- Logistics discontinuitymedium
Climate, political or health causes could affect logistics, and continuity plans are still being formalised at several subsidiaries 1.
- Energy transitionlow
The end of fossil energies and lower demand for gas heating could reduce volume in some product lines 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If sales of energy-efficient products grow, the group could benefit from regulation-driven demand and high energy prices 1.
- Governance is improving through the separation of roles and the lead director, which could reduce concentration of power 1.
- The high level of inventory and internal infrastructure could support continuity during disruptions 1.
What would break the thesis
- A carbon tax applied to products could erode margins, and the group does not rule out scenarios in which costs exceed its absorption capacity 1.
- Dependence on climate-exposed suppliers and volatile raw materials could affect deliveries and costs 1.
- Lower demand for fossil-fuel heating could reduce volume in traditional lines if the transition accelerates 1.
What to watch
- Actualizarea planurilor de adaptare pe baza noii cartografieri a riscurilor fizice2026
- Separation of the chair and CEO roles2026
- Results of the carbon breakeven analysis and changes in carbon cost assumptions2026
- Update of adaptation plans based on the new physical risk mapping2026
- Evolution of the contribution of low-emission products to revenuenext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
According to the 2025 universal registration document, the group was formed in 1986 and listed on the Lyon secondary market in 1987, with the aims of ensuring the continuity and development of its companies and the liquidity of founders' assets 1. Its structure is a holding with subsidiaries across product lines, and operational management is spread among subsidiary managers. The board has 11 members, 5 of them independent and 5 women 1.
Governance is a central element of the profile: the chair and CEO are the same person, but the board decided to separate the roles from 2026, and a lead director with a defined role provides a counterweight 1. Capital is split between the free float, employees and individual shareholders, so retail investors hold a significant share 1.
On sustainability reporting, the group updated its climate risk assessment, mapped the physical exposure of its own and suppliers' sites, and committed to a transition plan under the ACT Step by Step method 1. These elements relate to the business model, since most emissions come from products rather than direct operations 1.
Segments
Products and carbon footprint
Most of the group's carbon emissions come from products, covering manufacturing, transport, use and end of life, which makes the product portfolio the main lever of the climate strategy 1. The group identifies opportunities in energy efficiency, low-carbon heating, heat recovery and solar energy 1.
Market context
The group's market is linked to new construction, renovation and thermal, sanitary and water regulations, so demand depends on public policy and energy prices 1. The document also notes the risk of a possible carbon tax, which could change product and distribution costs 1.
The group also identifies external factors such as changes in household subsidies and climate events, which can influence sales volumes, and a logistics discontinuity risk may arise from climate, political or health causes 1.
Trends
- Carbon taxationmixed
A possible carbon tax could raise product and operating costs, but the group estimates that market opportunities could exceed the risks if it shifts its portfolio toward low-emission solutions 1.
- Energy and sanitary regulationmixed
Thermal, sanitary and water rules can create demand for efficient products, but they can also limit new construction, which could reduce volume in the short term 1.
- Energy and water pricestailwind
Rising energy and water prices can stimulate demand for energy-efficient equipment, but they can also pressure customers' budgets 1.
- Climate and logistics disruptionheadwind
Possible supply chain disruptions caused by climate, war or pandemics could raise costs and delay deliveries, which makes continuity plans relevant 1.
Competitive position
The universal registration document does not provide a detailed competitor analysis, but it mentions suppliers and manufacturers with which the group collaborates or partners in product development projects 1. Competitive position would depend on the ability to offer low-emission solutions and maintain inventory levels 1.
The relationship with suppliers is also a form of indirect competition, since copper cost and availability can affect margins for all players in the sector 1.
- Heating and installation equipment suppliers
The source does not name competitors, but the mention of suppliers the group works with suggests price and energy-efficiency competition 1.
- Building materials distributors
The source gives no names, and competition appears to be shared among players selling the same product categories 1.
- Low-carbon product manufacturers
Competition in this segment depends on the capacity to meet demand for low-carbon solutions, an area explicitly identified as an opportunity 1.
- Solar energy and heat network operators
These markets are identified as expansion opportunities, and competition could come from specialised players 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202504 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202404 Mar 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Thermador Groupe · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.