olivLaw · European equity research
Target Healthcare REIT plc THRL.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Target Healthcare REIT plc owns a portfolio of UK care homes leased to operators on long-term contracts. In fiscal 2025 rent cover stayed above 1.9x and occupancy stood at 86%, leaving room for growth, a relevant point given pressures in the social care sector.
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, Target Healthcare REIT plc (THRL.L) stock was 1.20 GBP (−0.66% on the day), with market capitalisation 744.3 m GBP, P/E 12.2 on diluted EPS of 0.10 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 4.87%, beta 0.39, 52-week range 0.93–1.21 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 67.8
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.12 – 1.21
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.86 · band width 8.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 1.14 / 1.09
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.02 / 0.02
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +6.2% | −0.2% | +6.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | +6.4% | −5.4% | +11.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | +11.5% | +4.4% | +7.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +23.0% | +6.5% | +16.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | +26.6% | +10.0% | +16.6 pp | +3.7% |
| 3 years | +51.7% | +48.6% | +3.1 pp | +24.5% |
| 5 years | +0.2% | +41.4% | −41.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 6.7, median 8.6, max 10.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 67.7 m | 69.6 m | 72.9 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +2.7% | +4.9% |
| Net income | -6.6 m | 73.0 m | 60.8 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −16.7% |
| Diluted EPS | -0.01 | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −16.7% |
| net % | -9.7% | 105.0% | 83.4% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Jun 2025
- Cash
- 39.6 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 240.3 m GBP
- Net debt
- 200.7 m GBP
- Equity
- 712.5 m GBP
- Total assets
- 986.2 m GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.34x
- Current ratio
- 0.39x
- ROE
- 8.7%
- ROA
- 6.2%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 67.7 m | 69.6 m | 72.9 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 10.3 m | 11.7 m | 11.5 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | -6.6 m | 73.0 m | 60.8 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Income tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Net income | -6.6 m | 73.0 m | 60.8 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.01 | 0.12 | 0.10 | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 15.4 m | 38.9 m | 39.6 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Receivables | 9.5 m | 5.7 m | 3.7 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Current assets | 24.8 m | 44.6 m | 43.9 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Total assets | 908.3 m | 967.4 m | 986.2 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 18.3 m | 27.5 m | 20.7 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 0 | 91.9 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 227.1 m | 240.7 m | 148.4 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 27.5 m | 112.6 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 253.5 m | 278.1 m | 273.7 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Equity | 654.8 m | 689.3 m | 712.5 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 620.0 m | 620.4 m | 620.2 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025derived |
Cash flow · GBP
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 744.3 m GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
27% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 83.4% | 100 (vs peers) | 23% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.4x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 12.2x | 72 (vs peers) | 38% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.9% | 69 (on a fixed band) | 23% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial69/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial72/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
TARGET HEALTHCARE REIT PLC (THRL.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 72.9 m GBP in 2025; YoY growth 4.9%; net margin 83.4%; ROE 8.7%.
The estimated value range is 0.83–1.20 GBP per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 1.01 GBP, the price of 1.20 GBP leaves a potential of -15.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -18.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 83.4%
- P/E (TTM): 12.2x
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.4x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 101.0 bn | 13.1 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +3% / +82% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.4 bn | 14.1 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −7% / −16% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.0 bn | 24.4 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −11% / +155% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.3 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.3 bn | 16.4 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +21% / +162% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.0 bn | 10.6 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +8% / +37% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.5 bn | 11.1 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −2% / −24% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.8 bn | 17.2 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +66% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.6 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +7% / +126% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.7 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +27% / +16% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 757.3 m | 35.9 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +70% / unavailable |
| THRL.LTarget Healthcare REIT PLC | 744.3 m | 12.2 | 8.7% | 83.4% | +4.9% | +24% / +47% |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 660.8 m | 14.2 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −9% / +24% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 496.9 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +72% / +9% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 480.3 m | 16.0 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −29% / +8% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 341.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −46% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 112.5 m | 28.7 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 10.3 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +340% / +878% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −11% / +154% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +61% / +64% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for THRL.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 0.71 Total return -37% · Per year -37% | 1.26 Total return 10% · Per year 10% | 1.90 Total return 64% · Per year 64% |
| 3 years | 0.70 Total return -31% · Per year -11% | 1.38 Total return 31% · Per year 10% | 2.29 Total return 111% · Per year 28% |
| 5 years | 0.68 Total return -25% · Per year -5% | 1.52 Total return 55% · Per year 9% | 2.76 Total return 167% · Per year 22% |
- Exit P/E± 0.35
- Net margin± 0.24
- Annual revenue growth± 0.20
- Annual dilution± 0.02
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Target Healthcare REIT plc owns a portfolio of UK care homes leased to operators on long-term contracts. In fiscal 2025 rent cover stayed above 1.9x 1 and occupancy stood at 86% 1, leaving room for growth, a relevant point given pressures in the social care sector.
SWOT
Strengths
- A modern portfolio with a high share of homes built after 2010 and very long lease terms, which provides stable income 1.
- Rent cover from operators at the highest level since listing, which lowers the risk of non-payment 1.
- A large share of tenant revenue from private fees, which supports long-term growth 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Weak operator performancehigh
If tenant operators cannot cover their costs, the company's income could fall, and the strategy of investing in new homes could add fill-up risk 1.
- Inflation and rent review capsmedium
If inflation were to exceed rent review caps, real income could decline, and higher operator costs could erode rent cover 1.
- Interest rate riskmedium
Interest rate changes could raise the cost of variable-rate debt, although most borrowings are fixed 1.
- Negative sector perceptionmedium
Negative events in the care sector could reduce demand for beds and damage the reputation of the portfolio 1.
- Access to capitallow
Without access to equity or debt, the company could be unable to grow through acquisitions 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Rent cover at the highest level since listing and rising rents could support long-term income, if operators continue passing costs on to residents 1.
- US investor interest in the sector could support property values and provide transaction evidence 1.
- Scope to raise occupancy towards the long-term average could improve portfolio profitability 1.
What to watch
- Outcome of the first phase of the Baroness Casey social care review2026
- Development of occupancy towards the long-term average in mature homesnext 10-K
- Any final rules on upward-only rent review restrictions2026
- Results of re-letting campaigns and the disposal of nine care homes after the year endnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The company invests in UK care homes that it leases to operators under triple net contracts with rents that rise each year. According to the annual report for the year ended 30 June 2025, the portfolio has diversified tenants, and a large part of tenant revenue comes from private fees 1. The strategy emphasises modern, high-quality buildings and a partnership between owner and operators.
Asset management is performed by Target Fund Managers Limited, which monitors tenant performance, rent cover and re-letting of homes when needed. The report mentions re-letting homes to other operators on attractive financial terms 1.
The company aims to reduce the carbon footprint of its portfolio, with a net zero target first for operations and then for the portfolio, as part of its ESG commitments 1.
Segments
Long-let care homes
The main segment consists of care homes leased to operators on long terms with indexed rents and a high share of private fees, which supports income stability 1.
Development and new investment
A small number of development projects completed or progressed in fiscal 2025, while property transactions remained limited, with a significant disposal of care homes announced after the year end 1.
Market context
The UK care home investment market saw higher transaction volumes than the prior year, and US REITs have invested significantly in the sector 1. The report says market pricing has remained relatively flat in recent quarters 1. Private fee increases and partial local authority funding affect operator revenues 1.
Valuation yields moved in line with the MSCI UK property index, and the company reported a total return above the benchmark for calendar 2024 1.
Trends
- Rising private feestailwind
Operators have largely passed rising costs on to residents, with large annual private fee increases, which could support rents if families continue to pay 1.
- Staffing cost pressureheadwind
Minimum wage and national insurance increases raise operator costs, and restrictions on overseas recruitment could worsen staff shortages in the sector 1.
- Social care reformmixed
The social care review led by Baroness Casey could bring longer-term clarity, but its timing is uncertain and could be affected by elections 1.
- Rent review regulationheadwind
The government proposal to ban upward-only rent reviews could have unintended effects on properties outside retail, although details remain unclear 1.
Competitive position
Competition comes from other UK care home owners and from US REITs that have started investing in the sector and sometimes take ownership of operations as well 1. The company argues its partnership model and triple net leases are preferred by many operators 1.
Differentiation rests on property quality, building age and the high share of en suite wet-rooms, indicators the company compares with national averages 1.
- US-listed REITs active in UK care homes
Investors that have recently entered the sector and in some cases also own the operations, not just the property 1.
- Other UK care home property owners
Private investors and funds competing for the same assets and operators in the sector 1.
- Operators using management contract models
Operators and investors that prefer management contract structures over long-term leases, seen as an alternative by some investors 1.
- Social infrastructure investment funds
New entrants that could increase demand for quality assets in the sector 1.
News & filings
In the press
- Target Healthcare REIT H2 Earnings Call HighlightsYahoo Finance — News · 22 Sept 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202518 Nov 2025
- Annual report 202423 Oct 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-06-30 (ESEF) · SEC / Target Healthcare REIT plc · 30 Jun 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.