olivLaw · European equity research
Tullow Oil plc TLW.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB0001500809 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Tullow Oil is an oil and gas producer in West Africa, now focused on Ghana after selling its Gabon and Kenya assets. The 2025 disposals reduced net debt, while 2026 cash flow guidance depends on collecting Government of Ghana receivables and on the oil price.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Tullow Oil plc (TLW.L) stock was 0.10 GBP (+3.55% on the day), with beta -0.25, 52-week range 0.04–0.25 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 33.6
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.09 – 0.13
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.16 · band width 32.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 0.16 / 0.14
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.01 / -0.02
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −4.1% | −0.6% | −3.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −31.2% | −4.2% | −27.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | −32.8% | +4.3% | −37.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +59.2% | +7.5% | +51.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +2.2% | +9.9% | −7.7 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | −70.6% | +49.8% | −120.4 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | −78.3% | +42.8% | −121.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.6 bn | 1.3 bn | 847.0 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −21.2% | −34.2% |
| Net income | -109.6 m | 54.6 m | 6.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −88.1% |
| Diluted EPS | -0.08 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −88.9% |
| net % | -6.7% | 4.2% | 0.8% |
| Free cash flow | 613.9 m | 561.8 m | 146.3 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 332.2 m USD
- Financial debt
- 1.3 bn USD
- Net debt
- 945.7 m USD
- Equity
- -252.9 m USD
- Total assets
- 3.3 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.52x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 0.2%
- FCF margin
- 17.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.6 bn | 1.3 bn | 847.0 m | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 869.2 m | 652.5 m | 603.9 m | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 764.9 m | 634.7 m | 247.3 m | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Operating income | 295.9 m | 448.7 m | 199.9 m | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 329.6 m | 344.2 m | 326.0 m | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 95.9 m | 321.5 m | 159.2 m | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Income tax | 205.5 m | 228.7 m | 66.5 m | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Net income | -109.6 m | 54.6 m | 6.5 m | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.08 | 0.04 | 0.00 | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 499.0 m | 555.1 m | 332.2 m | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Receivables | 43.5 m | 137.9 m | 179.2 m | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Inventories | 107.3 m | 132.4 m | 90.1 m | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.5 bn | 2.3 bn | — | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 0 | 44.9 m | 0 | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Total assets | 4.5 bn | 4.1 bn | 3.3 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 775.0 m | 736.5 m | 638.4 m | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 100.0 m | 589.4 m | 1.3 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.1 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 4.8 bn | 4.3 bn | 3.5 bn | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Equity | -359.4 m | -272.7 m | -252.9 m | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | — | esef· 12 May 2026derived |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 876.2 m | 758.5 m | 334.3 m | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Capex | 262.3 m | 196.7 m | 188.0 m | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 613.9 m ≈ | 561.8 m ≈ | 146.3 m ≈ | esef· 12 May 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -268.5 m | -213.1 m | 149.5 m | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -742.5 m | -492.2 m | -700.2 m | esef· 12 May 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 22.9% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
23% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.05 – 0.07 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E0.05 – 0.07 (Mid 0.06)17 companies used · median multiple 14.4x · quartiles 11.3x – 17.4x0EV1.L, ABDN.L, ABF.L, AIRE.L, AJB.L, ALFA.L, AMIF.L, APTD.L, ASHM.L, AUTO.L, BAB.L, BAG.L, BATS.L, BBY.L, BCG.L, BKG.L, BME.L
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 22.9% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 0.8% | 26 (vs peers) | 27% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 2,250.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 27% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 27% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.5x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality63/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
TULLOW OIL PLC (TLW.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 847.0 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -34.2%; net margin 0.8%.
The estimated value range is 0.05–0.07 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 22.9% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 2,250.8%
What contradicts it
- Net margin: 0.8%
- Interest coverage: 0.6x
- Current ratio: 0.5x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
| AEP.LAnglo-Eastern Plantations PLC | — | — | 16.1% | 19.5% | +25.0% | +5% / +113% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TLW.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Tullow Oil is an oil and gas producer in West Africa, now focused on Ghana after selling its Gabon and Kenya assets. The 2025 disposals reduced net debt, while 2026 cash flow guidance depends on collecting Government of Ghana receivables and on the oil price.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
- Free cash flow in 2025 was below expectations, partly because of delayed receipts from the Government of Ghana 1.
- Production declined because of natural decline in existing wells and operational problems at Jubilee in the first half of 2025 1.
- Reliance on one major jurisdiction, Ghana, makes the company vulnerable to regulatory changes or payment delays 1.
Opportunities
- New Jubilee drilling and the 4D seismic and OBN data could open new development targets and convert resources into reserves 1.
- The TEN FPSO acquisition could bring cost savings and synergies with Jubilee operations if integration follows plan 1.
- Monetising gas resources could add revenue, especially if the TEN gas supply heads of terms are finalised 1.
Threats
- Oil price volatility, heightened by Middle East conflicts, can affect revenue and asset values 1.
- A tax dispute with Kenyan authorities could create additional costs, although the company contests it 1.
- Climate pressure and the energy transition could limit access to finance and raise decarbonisation costs 1.
Risks
- Large receivables from the Government of Ghanahigh
Late receipts could affect cash flow and investment plans if the arrears are not resolved on a mutually acceptable basis 1.
- Oil price volatilityhigh
A lower price than expected could reduce cash flow, even though partial hedging softens the effect 1.
- Natural decline of existing productionmedium
Natural decline at Jubilee and TEN could be only partly offset by new wells, leaving production uncertain 1.
- Tax dispute in Kenyamedium
Kenyan authorities issued a significant tax assessment, which the company considers wholly without merit. An adverse outcome could create additional costs 1.
- Asset impairment in Ghanalow
Lower 2P reserves and a lower long-term price assumption triggered impairment indicators, and the Jubilee headroom has fallen materially, so future revisions could have accounting impact 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The extension of Ghana agreements to 2040, the refinancing and lower G&A costs could give a steadier base for development plans, if production holds at expected levels.
- The TEN FPSO acquisition could remove a large annual lease payment and bring operational synergies with Jubilee.
- New seismic data and the 2026 drilling campaign could unlock additional resources to be converted into reserves.
What would break the thesis
- Large Ghana receivables and cash flow below expectations in 2025 could limit the company's financial flexibility.
- Natural production decline and lower 2P reserves could make production targets hard to reach without new investment.
- Dependence on one jurisdiction and tax disputes could amplify risks if the regulatory framework changes.
What to watch
- Collection and resolution of Government of Ghana receivables2026
- Delivery of 2026 free cash flow guidance and oil price development2026
- Completion of the TEN FPSO acquisition and operational integrationQ1 2027
- Outcome of the Kenya tax objection and transfer of the Espoir licence2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
In 2025 the company completed the sale of its Gabon assets for 307 million dollars, after tax and adjustments, and sold its Kenya interests in September. These transactions materially reduced net debt and shaped a Ghana-focused profile. The company also signed an agreement to acquire the TEN FPSO for a gross consideration of 205 million dollars 1.
Segments
Non-operated and exploration portfolio
After the Gabon and Kenya sales, the non-operated portfolio is smaller, and Tullow has decided to exit exploration licences in Côte d'Ivoire and Argentina. The Espoir licence in Côte d'Ivoire expires in July 2026 and a transfer to Petroci is being planned 1.
Market context
Brent prices were very volatile in 2025 and early 2026, from about 81 dollars per barrel in January 2025 to close to 120 dollars in March 2026 amid the Middle East conflict. The report shows the market remains highly volatile, so revenue and cash flow depend strongly on price moves 1. The company hedges 60% of expected production for the year ahead 1.
The energy transition and climate pressures shape investment in African oil. The report notes that oil and gas could remain a significant part of Africa's energy mix, while decarbonisation commitments and project costs rise 1.
Trends
- Oil price volatilitymixed
Sharp swings in Brent, linked to conflicts and OPEC+ policy, could affect cash flow and asset valuations. The company relies on hedging and cost reduction to absorb shocks 1.
- Energy transition and climatemixed
Pressure to cut emissions could limit new oil and gas investment, while African energy demand keeps growing. The company follows its Net Zero by 2030 strategy 1.
- Regulatory stability in Ghanatailwind
Extending agreements to 2040 and the gas arrangements give a steadier basis for long-term investment, if relations with the government stay constructive 1.
- Receivables and liquidity pressureheadwind
Delayed receipts from the Government of Ghana and buyers could reduce cash flow and strain investment plans, especially if the arrears remain unresolved 1.
Competitive position
Tullow competes with other independent producers in West Africa and with national companies for licences, equipment and financing. The report does not list competitors in detail but stresses competition for critical resources 1.
The company's competitive position depends on keeping costs low and on developing its Ghana assets, where it already has operating infrastructure. Relationships with host governments are a differentiator the company highlights 1.
- National oil companies in West Africa
National operators in the region may compete for licences and government agreements, and are not US-listed.
- Independent operators active in the Gulf of Guinea
Independent companies active in the area may compete for the same assets and financing, though the source does not name them.
- International producers with African portfolios
Large oil companies with African assets may compete for licences and investment, but are not named in the source.
- FPSO and offshore service providers
Offshore service providers influence project costs and timelines, and competition for equipment can affect development plans.
News & filings
In the press
- Tullow Oil Shares Slump After Loss of Crucial Ghana Tax DisputeBloomberg Markets · 30 Sept 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202512 May 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Tullow Oil plc · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.