olivLaw · European equity research
Greencoat UK Wind PLC UKW.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Greencoat UK Wind PLC is a London-listed investment company that gives investors a direct stake in UK wind farms, with a portfolio of 49 operating sites and 1,942 MW of capacity. It matters now because 2025 was a difficult year with below-budget generation and a falling NAV, and the switch of dividend indexation to CPI shapes the direction of its payout policy.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Greencoat UK Wind PLC (UKW.L) stock was 1.22 GBP (+1.50% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.7 bn GBP, dividend yield 8.42%, beta 0.24, 52-week range 0.92–1.22 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 75.1
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.11 – 1.22
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.97 · band width 9.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 1.14 / 1.05
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.02 / 0.02
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +9.5% | −0.6% | +10.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +6.1% | −4.2% | +10.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +23.0% | +4.3% | +18.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +24.4% | +7.5% | +16.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +20.6% | +9.9% | +10.6 pp | +6.7% |
| 3 years | −14.2% | +49.8% | −64.1 pp | +24.8% |
| 5 years | −9.8% | +42.8% | −52.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 126.2 m | -55.4 m | -192.6 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −143.9% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 0.05 | -0.02 | -0.09 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −144.7% | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 14.2 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 1.7 bn GBP
- Net debt
- 1.7 bn GBP
- Equity
- 2.9 bn GBP
- Total assets
- unavailable GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.60x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- -6.1%
- ROA
- unavailable
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | 194.0 m | 23.6 m | -74.3 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 67.4 m | 105.3 m | 94.0 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 126.6 m | -55.4 m | -192.6 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 392.0 k | 0 | 0 | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 126.2 m | -55.4 m | -192.6 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.05 | -0.02 | -0.09 | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.10 | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 21.8 m | 5.8 m | 14.2 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 41.1 m | 18.5 m | 21.1 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 62.9 m | 24.3 m | 40.5 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 17.6 m | 23.7 m | 19.8 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 500.0 m | 0 | 200.0 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.3 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.8 bn | 3.4 bn | 2.9 bn | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.2 bn | esef· 10 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 359.8 m | 391.0 m | 365.4 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Investing cash flow | -773.5 m | 54.6 m | 110.7 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 415.7 m | -461.7 m | -467.7 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 197.0 m | 249.8 m | 227.0 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 9.4 m | 80.4 m | 108.4 m | esef· 10 Mar 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 22.9% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.7 bn GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
23% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 22.9% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -1.3% | 16 (vs peers) | 45% |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -0.8x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 27% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 12.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 27% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial16/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
GREENCOAT UK WIND PLC (UKW.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE -6.1%.
The estimated value range is 1.01–1.24 GBP per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 1.11 GBP, the price of 1.22 GBP leaves a potential of -8.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -9.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 22.9% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 12.4%
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -1.3%
- Interest coverage: -0.8x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net margin, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Current ratio, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| BMS.LBraemar PLC | 78.3 m | 39.2 | 2.7% | 1.7% | −4.4% | +13% / −11% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for UKW.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Greencoat UK Wind PLC is a London-listed investment company that gives investors a direct stake in UK wind farms, with a portfolio of 49 operating sites and 1,942 MW of capacity 1. It matters now because 2025 was a difficult year with below-budget generation and a falling NAV, and the switch of dividend indexation to CPI shapes the direction of its payout policy 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- A geographically diversified portfolio with several turbine manufacturers reduces technical and maintenance risk 1.
- A long record of dividend increases in line with or ahead of RPI, supported by solid dividend cover 1.
- A sector-leading position and access to an investment manager running a large renewable asset base 1.
Weaknesses
- A persistent discount of the share price to NAV, which complicates new share issuance and equity funding 1.
- High dependence on weather, particularly wind speeds, which led to generation below budget in 2025 1.
- High gearing and reliance on debt for new investments, which needs to be reduced to strengthen the balance sheet 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Financing riskhigh
If access to debt or equity markets becomes harder, the group's ability to grow real NAV could be limited 1.
- Regulatory riskhigh
Energy policy changes applied retroactively could affect the revenues of existing wind farms 1.
- Wind resource riskmedium
Wind variability can reduce output, and years with weak wind could affect the dividend and its cover 1.
- Power price riskmedium
A prolonged fall in power prices could significantly reduce revenues of the operating subsidiaries 1.
- Health and safety risklow
Wind farm operations carry risks to personnel, and an accident could lead to liability and reputational damage 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Electricity demand growth and the AR7 contracts could support investment growth and portfolio value over the long term 1.
- If the discount to NAV narrows, the share price could better reflect the value of the assets 1.
- A CPI-linked dividend policy and solid dividend cover could support investor income 1.
What to watch
- Outcome of the continuation vote at the AGMMay 2026
- Progress in reducing gearing below 40 per cent2026
- Delivery of the 2026 target dividend2026
- New disposals or asset acquisitionsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The company offers investors direct exposure to ownership of UK wind farms and was the first to create this segment through its 2013 initial public offering 1. Its aim is an annual dividend that rises in line with CPI inflation while preserving the real value of the portfolio through reinvestment of excess cash flow 1. The investment manager is Schroders Greencoat LLP, which runs the group together with its management team 1.
The group works through a structure in which the parent invests via Holdco in SPVs that hold the wind farm assets, and asset management focuses on safety, performance and extending turbine lifetimes 1. The company seeks to balance fixed, indexed revenues with merchant price exposure to support the dividend and capital structure 1. Gearing was a key focus, with the Board aiming to reduce it below 40 per cent in 2026 1.
Activity in 2025 showed the model's sensitivity to wind and power prices: generation fell below budget due to low wind, and NAV declined as power price forecasts weakened 1. Still, the company generated enough net cash to cover the dividend 1.3 times 1.
Segments
Market context
The UK wind market has about 32 GW of operating capacity, of which the company holds an estimated 6.3 per cent share 1. The AR7 allocation rounds awarded contracts for offshore and onshore projects, which could create significant investment opportunities if the projects are built 1. The estimated capital needed for these builds is about 40 billion pounds 1.
Trends
- Dividend indexation moves to CPImixed
The change of RO indexation from RPI to CPI alters the growth basis of the dividend, and the company has moved to a CPI-linked policy from 2026 1. This could stabilise dividend growth if inflation stays moderate, but it slows the pace compared with the old model 1.
- Rising electricity demandtailwind
Growing demand from electrified heat, transport and data centres could require new generation capacity, and the company sees wind as able to meet a significant part of this demand 1.
- Power prices and generationheadwind
Falling gas prices and lower power price forecasts reduced NAV in 2025, while weak winds cut output below budget, showing high exposure to market and weather conditions 1.
- Disposals and reinvestmentmixed
Partial asset sales and debt reduction could support capital, but reinvesting excess cash flow remains essential to sustaining returns 1.
Competitive position
The company operates in a sector where several listed funds and private managers compete for the same wind assets and acquisition opportunities 1. The sector as a whole has seen NAV declines, and investor pressure on infrastructure funds could affect financing conditions 1.
- Other listed UK renewable energy funds
Investment funds with wind and solar portfolios in the UK, cited in the context of sector-wide NAV declines 1.
- Wind developers and utilities
Developers selling secondary assets to fund new projects are the main source of the company's acquisition opportunities 1.
- Private infrastructure investors
Private infrastructure funds compete for the same operating assets and new projects in the sector 1.
- Offshore asset operators
Operators of large offshore parks can be both competitors for acquisitions and partners in ownership 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202510 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202406 Mar 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Greencoat UK Wind PLC · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.