olivLaw · European equity research
Vistry Group PLC VTY.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB0001859296 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Vistry Group PLC is a British housebuilder focused on affordable homes, in a context where housing demand in the United Kingdom remains high. The company continues to manage provisions linked to building safety and financing pressures, according to its annual report for the year ended 31 December 2025.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Vistry Group PLC (VTY.L) stock was 2.73 GBP (−5.86% on the day), with market capitalisation 23.4 m GBP, P/E 0.1 on diluted EPS of 21.80 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 1.14, 52-week range 2.17–7.37 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 56.3
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 2.08 – 2.94
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.75 · band width 34.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.60 / 3.46
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.08 / 0.03
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +15.4% | −0.6% | +16.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | −3.5% | −4.2% | +0.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | −20.9% | +4.3% | −25.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | −57.4% | +7.5% | −64.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | −56.6% | +9.9% | −66.5 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | −62.8% | +49.8% | −112.7 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | −76.3% | +42.8% | −119.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 0.1, median 0.2, max 0.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.6 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +21.5% | −4.0% |
| Net income | 215.0 m | 188.9 m | 193.9 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −12.1% | +2.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 61.30 | 21.80 | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −64.4% | unavailable |
| net % | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% |
| Free cash flow | -74.9 m | 82.8 m | 174.6 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 353.7 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 497.9 m GBP
- Net debt
- 144.2 m GBP
- Equity
- 3.3 bn GBP
- Total assets
- 6.4 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.15x
- Current ratio
- 2.52x
- ROE
- 5.9%
- ROA
- 3.1%
- FCF margin
- 4.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.6 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.2 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 3.0 bn | 3.5 bn | — | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 533.6 m | 291.7 m | — | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Operating income | 300.0 m | 358.2 m | 353.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 85.0 m | 95.9 m | — | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 293.0 m | 263.5 m | 268.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 78.0 m | 74.6 m | 74.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 215.0 m | 188.9 m | 193.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 61.30 | 21.80 | — | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 31.89 | 0.00 | — | esef· 15 Apr 2025derived |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 418.3 m | 320.3 m | 353.7 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 626.4 m | 760.4 m | 760.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 3.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 4.1 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.3 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 20.1 m | 22.8 m | 27.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 827.6 m | 827.6 m | 827.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 409.3 m | 368.8 m | 329.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 6.1 bn | 6.0 bn | 6.4 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 507.1 m | 501.0 m | 497.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.1 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.3 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.3 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 3.5 m | 8.6 m | — | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -72.1 m | 89.7 m | 185.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 2.8 m | 6.9 m | 11.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -74.9 m ≈ | 82.8 m ≈ | 174.6 m ≈ | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 52.5 m | 1.3 m | -12.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -238.9 m | -189.0 m | -140.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 110.4 m | 0 | — | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | 5.3 m | 172.6 m | 71.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 73 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 23.4 m GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Quality45
- Balance sheet60
- Valuation100
- Returns100
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 73/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 7.4% | 25 (vs peers) | 17% |
| Net margin · Quality | 4.7% | 37 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 90.0% | 86 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.7x | 34 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 0.1x | 100 (vs peers) | 17% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 744.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 303.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 0.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet60/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality45/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
VISTRY GROUP PLC (VTY.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.2 bn GBP in 2025; YoY growth -4.0%; net margin 4.7%; ROE 5.9%.
The estimated value range is 394.27–956.10 GBP per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 555.98 GBP, the price of 2.73 GBP leaves a potential of 20,265.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 99.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 73/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 90.0%
- Current ratio: 2.5x
- P/E (TTM): 0.1x
- FCF yield: 744.9%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 303.7%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 0.0%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 7.4%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| VTY.LVistry Group PLC | 23.4 m | 0.1 | 5.9% | 4.7% | −4.0% | −59% / −63% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for VTY.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 1.48 Total return -46% · Per year -46% | 2.62 Total return -4% · Per year -4% | 3.96 Total return 45% · Per year 45% |
| 3 years | 1.20 Total return -56% · Per year -24% | 2.41 Total return -12% · Per year -4% | 4.04 Total return 48% · Per year 14% |
| 5 years | 0.97 Total return -64% · Per year -19% | 2.22 Total return -19% · Per year -4% | 4.12 Total return 51% · Per year 9% |
- Exit P/E± 0.60
- Net margin± 0.42
- Annual revenue growth± 0.38
- Annual dilution± 0.04
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Vistry Group PLC is a British housebuilder focused on affordable homes, in a context where housing demand in the United Kingdom remains high. The company continues to manage provisions linked to building safety and financing pressures, according to its annual report for the year ended 31 December 2025 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has an asset base and a well documented governance framework, with an Audit Committee made up entirely of independent non-executive directors 1.
- The company publishes detailed climate risk disclosures and sustainability indicators that are externally assured 1.
- A review framework exists for site cost estimates and impairment analysis, which supports the stability of reporting 1.
Weaknesses
- The estimation of costs to complete relies on complex judgements, and errors could affect margins and inventory 1.
- The building safety provision remains significant and uncertain in its quantification 1.
- The report notes that some adjusted performance measures are used extensively, which calls for care in how they are presented 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Building safetyhigh
The provision for remedying safety issues could rise if the scope of works widens 1.
- Cost estimation to completehigh
Errors in cost estimates could affect cost of sales and the value of inventory 1.
- Refinancingmedium
The maturity of a major loan in 2027 and of facilities in 2028 creates a need for new financing arrangements 1.
- Climate and transition risksmedium
Carbon costs and transition requirements could raise costs, and the transition plan is yet to be published 1.
- Planning approvalsmedium
Differing local sustainability requirements could delay or block approvals 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for affordable homes stays high, the group could benefit from steady volumes and ongoing partnerships with local authorities 1.
- If the building safety provision stabilises, uncertainty over results could gradually ease 1.
- Strong governance and reported internal controls can support investor confidence in the quality of financial information 1.
What to watch
- Evolution of the building safety provision2026
- Refinancing of the USPP loan2026
- Publication of the climate transition plan2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Vistry Group PLC describes its activity as tied to the national need for affordable housing, and risk management is embedded in the group's everyday decisions 1. The Audit Committee oversees financial reporting, internal controls and the relationship with the external auditor, PwC 1. The annual report also includes a dashboard of non-financial indicators, including new home completions and employee and partner satisfaction 1.
Key financial markers include goodwill of £827.6m and a building safety provision of £303.6m at the end of 2025 1. Investments in subsidiaries reached £2,518.1m 1. These balances show the scale of assets and obligations that need ongoing monitoring over time.
The annual report also describes a climate risk management framework that considers both physical and transition risks, with reviews every two months 1. The company commits to publishing a transition plan later in 2026 1.
Segments
Housebuilding and sales
The core activity is developing and selling homes, where site-wide costs to complete are estimated through blended margins across each site 1. The Audit Committee treated the estimation of these costs as an area requiring a high degree of judgement 1.
Building safety
The group maintains a provision for building safety issues whose quantification depends on the scope of remedial works 1. The provision fell compared with the prior year, and this remains a sensitive area for results 1.
Vistry Works and services
The report mentions Vistry Works and the building safety team as part of the operational structure, where site-specific risks are identified and escalated 1.
Market context
The British housing market is characterised by high demand and changing regulation, including tighter building code standards 1. Local planning authorities apply differing sustainability requirements, which complicates approvals 1.
Financing and access to capital are relevant factors, with a £100m USPP loan due to mature in February 2027 and credit facilities expiring in April 2028 1. Management's intention is to replace the USPP loan, but this is not assumed in the base case 1.
Trends
- Safety and building code regulationheadwind
Tighter requirements on buildings could raise compliance and remediation costs, which could weigh on margins if the pressure persists 1.
- Climate pressure and energy transitionmixed
Carbon pricing, energy requirements and the cost of lower-emission technology are transition risks the company identifies, but they can also create opportunities around more efficient homes 1.
- Demand for affordable housingtailwind
A focus on affordable homes and partnerships with local authorities could support volumes, if planning remains predictable 1.
- Cost of financingheadwind
The cost of capital and availability of finance can influence the ability to refinance debt approaching maturity, particularly if market conditions worsen 1.
Competitive position
The sources provided do not explicitly name the group's competitors, so direct comparisons cannot be made. The analysis relies only on what the annual report describes about the market and the company's position 1.
Competitive pressure appears linked to access to land, planning approvals and material costs, factors the report flags as sensitive 1.
- No competitors named in the source
The annual report provided does not name direct competitors.
- UK housebuilders in general
Competition comes from other developers active in the same local markets, not named in the source.
- Material suppliers and the supply chain
The report mentions the cost and availability of materials as a risk for all players in the sector.
- Other participants in social housing programmes
Partnerships with local authorities may draw other builders into the same projects.
News & filings
In the press
- Housebuilder Vistry slashes profit forecasts as losses balloonThe Guardian World · 24 Sept 2026 · EN
- Housebuilder Vistry warns of losses amid heavy discounting on unsold homesThe Guardian World · 08 Jul 2026 · RO
- Vistry Expects £30 Million Pretax Loss, CFO Steps DownBloomberg Markets · 08 Jul 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202507 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
- Annual report 202315 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Vistry Group PLC · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.