olivLaw · European equity research
XPS Pensions Group plc XPS.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00BDDN1T20 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
XPS Pensions Group is a UK provider of services to pension schemes, covering actuarial, administration, investment and insurance consulting. The company reports revenue growth of and emphasises how changing markets, driven by defined benefit surpluses and new legislation due in 2027, could shape its next phase.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, XPS Pensions Group plc (XPS.L) stock was 3.52 GBP (−1.13% on the day), with market capitalisation 718.1 m GBP, P/E 28.3 on diluted EPS of 0.12 GBP over the last 12 months, beta 0.59, 52-week range 2.83–3.62 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 69.4
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 3.07 – 3.67
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.74 · band width 17.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 3.17 / 3.17
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.11 / 0.10
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +17.6% | −0.6% | +18.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +3.4% | −4.2% | +7.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | +14.5% | +4.3% | +10.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | +3.7% | +7.5% | −3.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +2.0% | +9.9% | −7.9 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +66.6% | +49.8% | +16.7 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | +164.3% | +42.8% | +121.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 9.4, median 23.4, max 27.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 199.4 m | 231.8 m | 262.7 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +16.2% | +13.3% |
| Net income | 54.2 m | 30.3 m | 26.6 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −44.0% | −12.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −44.1% | −10.1% |
| net % | 27.2% | 13.1% | 10.1% |
| Free cash flow | 41.1 m | 39.7 m | 53.1 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Mar 2026
- Cash
- 16.8 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 62.3 m GBP
- Net debt
- 45.4 m GBP
- Equity
- 174.8 m GBP
- Total assets
- 329.5 m GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.36x
- Current ratio
- 1.61x
- ROE
- 14.7%
- ROA
- 8.1%
- FCF margin
- 20.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 199.4 m | 231.8 m | 262.7 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Operating income | 67.0 m | 44.2 m | 43.2 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 12.9 m | 13.8 m | 16.5 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 79.8 m ≈ | 58.0 m ≈ | 59.7 m ≈ | esef· 21 Jul 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 4.5 m | 3.5 m | 4.6 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 62.5 m | 40.8 m | 38.7 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Income tax | 8.3 m | 10.4 m | 12.2 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Net income | 54.2 m | 30.3 m | 26.6 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0.12 | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 10.0 m | 14.7 m | 16.8 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Receivables | 50.9 m | 60.7 m | 70.4 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Current assets | 60.9 m | 75.4 m | 88.0 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 4.0 m | 5.3 m | 5.9 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Total assets | 281.9 m | 323.5 m | 329.5 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 23.4 m | 54.0 m | 62.3 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 47.9 m | 52.3 m | 54.6 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 96.0 m | 138.1 m | 154.6 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Equity | 185.9 m | 185.4 m | 174.8 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 206.7 m | 206.4 m | 204.3 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 42.9 m | 41.8 m | 55.2 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.9 m | 2.1 m | 2.1 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 41.1 m ≈ | 39.7 m ≈ | 53.1 m ≈ | esef· 21 Jul 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 29.2 m | -21.9 m | -9.9 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -75.4 m | -15.2 m | -43.2 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 5.6 m | 18.7 m | 20.9 m | esef· 21 Jul 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 59 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 718.1 m GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation38
- Balance sheet90
- Returns42
- Quality62
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 59/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 13.3% | 50 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Net margin · Quality | 10.1% | 46 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 199.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 93 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 9.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.6x | 68 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 28.3x | 11 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 12.8x | 20 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 7.4% | 92 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.9% | 42 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet90/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality62/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial42/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation38/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
XPS PENSIONS GROUP PLC (XPS.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-03-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 262.7 m GBP in 2026; YoY growth 13.3%; net margin 10.1%; ROE 14.7%; net debt/EBITDA 0.8x.
The estimated value range is 2.31–3.32 GBP per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 2.77 GBP, the price of 3.52 GBP leaves a potential of -21.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -27.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 59/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 199.8%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.8x
- Interest coverage: 9.4x
- FCF yield: 7.4%
What contradicts it
- P/E (TTM): 28.3x
- EV/EBITDA: 12.8x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| XPS.LXps Pensions Group PLC | 718.1 m | 28.3 | 14.7% | 10.1% | +13.3% | −3% / +48% |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for XPS.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 2.37 Total return -33% · Per year -33% | 4.18 Total return 19% · Per year 19% | 6.27 Total return 78% · Per year 78% |
| 3 years | 2.73 Total return -22% · Per year -8% | 5.36 Total return 53% · Per year 15% | 8.77 Total return 150% · Per year 36% |
| 5 years | 3.14 Total return -11% · Per year -2% | 6.89 Total return 96% · Per year 14% | 12.28 Total return 249% · Per year 28% |
- Exit P/E± 1.34
- Net margin± 0.94
- Annual revenue growth± 0.71
- Annual dilution± 0.08
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
XPS Pensions Group is a UK provider of services to pension schemes, covering actuarial, administration, investment and insurance consulting. The company reports revenue growth of 1 and emphasises how changing markets, driven by defined benefit surpluses and new legislation due in 2027, could shape its next phase.
SWOT
Strengths
- A scalable Aurora platform with a large number of administered members and a recognised position in the sector 1.
- Low leverage and a solid balance sheet that allow acquisitions without major financial strain 1.
- An experienced team recognised by industry awards, with a culture the company reports as strong 1.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on a relatively small number of large mandates and third-party suppliers could expose the Group to operational errors 1.
- Migrating clients from legacy systems to Aurora remains a complex process with execution risk 1.
- Organic revenue growth was more moderate than total growth, showing reliance on acquisitions 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Third-party supplier errorshigh
Outsourcing problems and errors by third-party suppliers could affect client service and generate additional costs 1.
- Strategy executionmedium
Delivering growth plans, including client migration and acquisition integration, could encounter difficulties 1.
- Information and cyber securityhigh
Sensitive scheme member data could be exposed to cyber attacks, with reputational impact 1.
- Regulation and compliancemedium
Regulatory change, including the Consumer Duty, could impose additional compliance requirements 1.
- Human resourceslow
Attracting and retaining qualified staff is essential in a sector with strong demand for specialists, and losing talent could affect service quality 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Several consecutive years of revenue growth and a scalable platform could support continued expansion if the market remains favourable 1.
- Pension surpluses and new legislation could generate sustained demand for consultancy and risk transfer work 1.
- A low-leverage balance sheet gives flexibility for acquisitions that meet management's criteria 1.
What would break the thesis
- If the Pension Schemes Bill is delayed or its content changes, demand for the new solutions could be lower than management expects 1.
- Organic growth more modest than total growth could indicate reliance on acquisitions, with integration risks 1.
- Competitive pressure from larger firms and investment in AI could weigh on margins in the short term 1.
What to watch
- Evolution of revenue and organic growthnext 10-K
- Entry into effect of the Pension Schemes Bill and effects on demand2027
- Start of the Metropolitan Police contract and progress of migration to Aurora2027
- Integration of Polaris and cross-selling results in insurance consultingnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
XPS Pensions Group plc offers full-service solutions to trustees and sponsors of pension schemes, including actuarial, administration, investment and employer covenant solutions 1. Its proprietary Aurora platform serves members across schemes, and the Group has grown through acquisitions, including insurance consultancy Polaris 1. The company is listed on the London Stock Exchange and reports for the year ended 31 March 2026 1.
The business model combines recurring administration revenue with consultancy and risk transfer transactions, which could support revenue stability if client demand stays strong 1. Group strategy targets organic market share growth and acquisitions that meet the investment criteria set by management 1.
Management is led by two executive directors who jointly run the Group under a Board with a non-executive chair and dedicated committees 1. The company has won notable public sector work, including a contract with a London police force with a maximum term of nine years 1.
Segments
Pension scheme services
This activity covers actuarial, administration and investment solutions for pension schemes, in a fee market the company puts at around 2.5 billion GBP 1. The Aurora platform serves over 670,000 members, making scalability central to strategy 1.
Market context
The UK defined benefit pension market has transformed, with many schemes moving from deficit to surplus and an aggregate surplus of about 200 billion GBP 1. Over 50% of schemes are now in surplus, which has driven demand for bulk annuity transactions and run-on discussions 1. Management expects capital flows to continue over the next 10-15 years 1.
The regulatory framework is changing, and the new Pension Schemes Bill could make it easier to use surpluses, with entry into effect planned for 2027 1. The company views competition as shaped by high barriers to entry, including sector expertise and access to data 1.
Trends
- Defined benefit surplusestailwind
The move of many schemes from deficit to surplus opens new options, such as run-on-for-surplus, which could generate demand for advisory work 1.
- New pension schemes legislationtailwind
The Pension Schemes Bill, due to take effect in 2027, could increase demand for advice from trustees and sponsors 1.
- Artificial intelligencemixed
The company invests in AI-driven solutions but believes the main beneficiaries will be firms already in the sector; cost pressure could arise if investments do not deliver returns 1.
- Competitive risk transfer marketheadwind
Growing interest in risk transfer suggests opportunities, but competition for the largest mandates could put pressure on margins 1.
Competitive position
The company ranks fourth in the pension services fee market by revenue, which indicates an important but not dominant position 1. Its stated advantage lies in scale, capacity to invest and credibility for large mandates, combined with the agility of a specialist provider 1.
Competitors are described in the source only in general terms, in contrast with larger and less specialist firms; the source does not name specific competitors 1. The company considers client trust and long track records to be barriers to new entrants 1.
- Large consultancy and brokerage firms
The source refers generally to larger and less specialist firms without naming them; XPS presents its position as an advantage against them 1.
- Superfund providers and insurance companies
The source mentions superfunds and insurers as destinations for pension scheme capital, without details on direct competition 1.
- Pension administration providers
The company implicitly competes with other administration providers for public sector and pension scheme mandates, which the source does not name 1.
- Independent actuarial consultants
Competition in actuarial advisory and risk transfer consulting is mentioned only generally, without specific names 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202621 Jul 2026
- Annual report 202515 Jul 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 (ESEF) · SEC / XPS Pensions Group plc · 31 Mar 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.