olivLaw · European equity research
Yara International ASA YAR.OL
Norway · Euronext Oslo Børs · ISIN NO0010208051 · Vertical: Listed companies from Norway
Yara International is a global producer of nitrogen fertilizers that turns energy and minerals into ammonia and crop nutrition products for agriculture and industry. Fiscal 2025 brought a strong recovery in profitability, and the company has set new targets for cost reduction and decarbonization in a market that remains tight.
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, Yara International ASA (YAR.OL) stock was 401.00 NOK (+0.02% on the day), with beta -0.08, 52-week range 356.80–596.80 NOK.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 45.2
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 387.49 – 413.17
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.53 · band width 6.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 425.76 / 467.77
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -7.61 / -9.02
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −2.7% | −0.6% | −2.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −3.7% | −4.2% | +0.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | −24.1% | +4.3% | −28.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | −3.1% | +7.5% | −10.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +11.9% | +9.9% | +2.0 pp | −4.7% |
| 3 years | +11.5% | +49.8% | −38.4 pp | +12.7% |
| 5 years | −13.0% | +42.8% | −55.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 15.5 bn | 13.9 bn | 15.6 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −10.6% | +12.7% |
| Net income | 48.0 m | 14.0 m | 1.4 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −70.8% | +9,671.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.19 | 0.05 | 5.37 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −73.7% | +10,640.0% |
| net % | 0.3% | 0.1% | 8.8% |
| Free cash flow | 1.1 bn | 248.0 m | 956.0 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 913.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 3.6 bn USD
- Net debt
- 2.7 bn USD
- Equity
- 8.7 bn USD
- Total assets
- 17.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.41x
- Current ratio
- 1.72x
- ROE
- 17.4%
- ROA
- 8.5%
- FCF margin
- 6.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 15.5 bn | 13.9 bn | 15.6 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 392.0 m | 686.0 m | 1.6 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 1.4 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | 2.7 bn ≈ | esef· 21 Oct 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 191.0 m | 180.0 m | 1.8 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 136.0 m | 165.0 m | 406.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 48.0 m | 14.0 m | 1.4 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.19 | 0.05 | 5.37 | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 5.22 | 5.00 | 5.00 | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 539.0 m | 317.0 m | 913.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 3.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.4 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 6.2 bn | 5.7 bn | 7.0 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 7.2 bn | 6.8 bn | 7.5 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 760.0 m | 712.0 m | 746.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 135.0 m | 123.0 m | 105.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 16.0 bn | 15.0 bn | 17.1 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 517.0 m | 170.0 m | 873.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 3.3 bn | 3.4 bn | 2.8 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 3.7 bn | 3.1 bn | 4.1 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 7.6 bn | 7.0 bn | 8.7 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 252.6 m | 280.0 m | 254.7 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 2.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.9 bn | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 938.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 1.1 bn ≈ | 248.0 m ≈ | 956.0 m ≈ | esef· 21 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.2 bn | -1.1 bn | -906.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -1.5 bn | -401.0 m | -392.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 1.3 bn | 120.0 m | 127.0 m | esef· 21 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
42% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 49.18 – 169.65 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDA73.68 – 94.17 (Mid 82.80)5 companies used · median multiple 9.0x · quartiles 8.1x – 10.1xAKVA.OL, ATEA.OL, B2I.OL, BONHR.OL, ELMRA.OL
- Peers: P/E49.18 – 169.65 (Mid 106.10)19 companies used · median multiple 19.8x · quartiles 9.2x – 31.6xABG.OL, ABTEC.OL, AFG.OL, AKER.OL, AKSO.OL, AKVA.OL, APR.OL, ARR.OL, ATEA.OL, AUSS.OL, B2I.OL, BONHR.OL, BOR.OL, BOUV.OL, BRG.OL, CLOUD.OL, DELIA.OL, ELK.OL, ELMRA.OL
- Dividend discount (DDM)65.71 – 88.36 (Mid 75.37)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 11.2% | 59 (vs peers) | 25% |
| Net margin · Quality | 8.8% | 68 (vs peers) | 15% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 69.9% | 57 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 60 (vs peers) | 25% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.7x | 77 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 13.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet65/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality61/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
YARA INTERNATIONAL ASA (YAR.OL). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 15.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 12.7%; net margin 8.8%; ROE 17.4%; net debt/EBITDA 1.0x.
The estimated value range is 65.71–94.17 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 1.7x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 13.3%
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Norway · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKER.OLAker Asa | 79.8 bn | 20.3 | 7.9% | 21.4% | +42.5% | +36% / +59% |
| AFG.OLAf Gruppen Asa | 21.5 bn | 19.8 | 39.7% | 3.4% | +4.4% | +8% / +69% |
| ELK.OLElkem Asa | 19.2 bn | 39.3 | 1.9% | 2.7% | −15.7% | +10% / +73% |
| ATEA.OLAtea Asa | 18.5 bn | 21.4 | 19.7% | 2.3% | +8.1% | +11% / +36% |
| AKSO.OLAker Solutions Asa | 17.4 bn | 6.8 | 22.5% | 4.1% | +19.2% | +18% / −12% |
| AUSS.OLAustevoll Seafood Asa | 16.6 bn | 37.1 | 1.6% | 1.1% | +11.1% | −7% / +10% |
| BRG.OLBorregaard Asa | 15.6 bn | 25.1 | 11.4% | 8.0% | +1.3% | −18% / −9% |
| BONHR.OLBonheur ASA | 11.2 bn | 7.8 | 17.1% | 11.4% | −10.8% | +17% / +44% |
| AFK.OLArendals Fossekompani Asa | 10.3 bn | — | -2.3% | -3.1% | −14.9% | +39% / +31% |
| B2I.OLB2 Impact Asa | 8.8 bn | 14.3 | 11.0% | 16.4% | +2.6% | +40% / +238% |
| AKVA.OLAkva Group Asa | 5.7 bn | 31.2 | 13.7% | 4.2% | +24.4% | +74% / +152% |
| ELMRA.OLElmera Group Asa | 5.1 bn | 32.0 | 10.5% | 1.3% | −0.9% | +32% / +98% |
| BOUV.OLBouvet Asa | 5.0 bn | 14.2 | 80.7% | 9.2% | −0.2% | −19% / −16% |
| CLOUD.OLCloudberry Clean Energy Asa | 4.0 bn | 61.9 | 1.3% | 13.1% | +34.0% | −5% / +29% |
| ABG.OLAbg Sundal Collier Holding Asa | 3.6 bn | 10.7 | 34.9% | 16.8% | +12.4% | −13% / +20% |
| ANDF.OLAndfjord Salmon Group As | 2.2 bn | — | -5.7% | -12,770.4% | +328.9% | −18% / −11% |
| BMA.OLByggma Asa | 1.6 bn | — | -25.3% | -11.9% | −2.5% | +61% / +15% |
| APR.OLAppear Asa | 1.4 bn | 10.5 | 30.1% | 16.1% | +32.3% | −53% / unavailable |
| AZT.OLArcticzymes Technologies Asa | 1.1 bn | 108.9 | 2.9% | 8.6% | +7.9% | −8% / −48% |
| CAPSL.OLCapsol Technologies Asa | 884.6 m | — | -89.4% | -114.8% | −25.0% | −33% / −66% |
| BOR.OLBorgestad Asa | 553.2 m | 36.1 | 2.1% | 1.4% | −3.0% | −7% / +41% |
| ARR.OLArribatec Group Asa | 234.6 m | 4.8 | 22.1% | 9.3% | +15.7% | −33% / −55% |
| DELIA.OLDellia Group Asa | 73.5 m | 1.5 | 22.6% | 7.7% | +140.0% | −62% / unavailable |
| ABTEC.OLAqua Bio Technology Asa | 11.1 m | 0.1 | — | 7,297.7% | −87.2% | −82% / −97% |
| AGLX.OLAgilyx Asa | — | — | -182.4% | -12,189.3% | +20.3% | −40% / −41% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for YAR.OL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Yara International is a global producer of nitrogen fertilizers that turns energy and minerals into ammonia and crop nutrition products for agriculture and industry. Fiscal 2025 brought a strong recovery in profitability, and the company has set new targets for cost reduction and decarbonization in a market that remains tight. 1
SWOT
Strengths
- Leading position in traded ammonia and in premium nitrate and NPK products, backed by an extensive global network of plants and terminals.
- High operational reliability and energy flexibility in Europe, allowing switching between energy exposures and importing ammonia.
- Return to profitability in 2025, with ROIC above the company's through-the-cycle target, reflecting cost discipline and investment efficiency.
Weaknesses
- Exposure to volatile natural gas prices, especially in Europe, remains a structural vulnerability of the production model.
- Dependence on energy costs makes results sensitive to market shocks, and diversification of energy sources is still in progress.
- Decarbonization costs, including carbon capture projects, are capital intensive and depend on regulatory support.
Opportunities
- Structural food demand and the need for efficient use of land and water support the company's premium and biological solutions.
- Low-emission ammonia partnerships in the US and Saudi Arabia could open new markets and improve margins.
- A nitrogen market tightened after 2025 could support prices and margins, especially outside China.
Threats
- Uncertainty over the application of the CBAM mechanism could change the competitive conditions for European producers.
- Disruptions in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz can raise energy and fertilizer prices, affecting food security.
- Competition from producers with access to cheap gas and fragmented trade policies can pressure prices and market share.
Risks
- Natural gas price volatilityhigh
Natural gas costs directly affect ammonia production margins, particularly in Europe where exposure is high.
- CBAM uncertaintymedium
A possible suspension or amendment of the European carbon border mechanism could change competitive advantages.
- Geopolitical tensionshigh
Disruptions in the Middle East can disturb shipping and raw material prices, with cost implications.
- Decarbonization project executionmedium
Delays or cost overruns in CCS projects and ammonia partnerships could affect investment returns.
- Cyclicality of fertilizer pricesmedium
Fertilizer prices are cyclical, and a fall in agricultural prices could quickly reduce profitability.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The strong return to profitability in 2025 and ROIC above the reference level show that efficiency measures are producing concrete results.
- The global nitrogen market remains tight, and the company holds a leading position in ammonia and premium products that supports its margins.
- The new EBITDA improvement targets, if achieved, could add significant value through 2030.
What would break the thesis
- Results remain sensitive to gas prices and geopolitical shocks that can quickly erase efficiency gains.
- Uncertainty over CBAM and carbon policy could reduce predictability for European operations.
- Low-emission ammonia projects are still in negotiation or early implementation, and execution risks remain.
What to watch
- Final investment decision on the US low-emission ammonia partnershipmid-2026
- Approval of the proposed dividend at the annual general meeting12 May 2026
- Progress toward the additional USD 200 million EBITDA improvement by end of 20272027
- Development of CBAM application and European gas pricesnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Yara's business model rests on producing nitrogen fertilizers, starting from combining nitrogen from the air with hydrogen from natural gas to make ammonia, the basic raw material of the process. The company presents itself as a leader in traded ammonia and in premium nitrate and NPK production, with a global network of plants, terminals and blending units. 1
The competitive edges the company cites include global scale and integrated asset optimization, high operational reliability, energy flexibility in Europe, and what it calls the 'knowledge margin', combining its product range with agronomic expertise and digital tools. 1
Yara is in the phase of a new improvement program aimed at better asset utilization, lower fixed costs and diversified energy sources, with emphasis on low-carbon ammonia and premium products. 1
Segments
Europe
The Europe segment delivered 9,135 thousand tonnes and reported EBITDA excluding special items of USD 612 million in 2025, a strong increase over the prior year thanks to higher margins and lower fixed costs. 1
Americas
The Americas segment delivered 10,176 thousand tonnes with EBITDA excluding special items of USD 839 million, mainly driven by NPK sales and the recovery in Brazil after the previous year's floods. 1
Africa & Asia
The Africa & Asia segment delivered 4,441 thousand tonnes with EBITDA excluding special items of USD 227 million, supported by strong commercial margins and lower fixed costs. 1
Market context
The global nitrogen market was tight in 2025 because of strong demand and supply issues, and urea prices stayed high going into the northern hemisphere spring. Management expects supply growth in 2026 and beyond to lag consumption growth outside China, which could support European margins. 1
Fertilizer and gas prices are sensitive to developments in the Middle East. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz from February 2026 affected a large share of global urea trade and LNG, and the impact on Yara depends on market developments, as its direct exposure is limited. 1
Trends
- Cost reduction programtailwind
The fixed cost and capex reduction program was completed above target in 2025, freeing up additional cash and supporting the return on invested capital recovery. A new improvement cycle could continue this trend if execution stays disciplined. 1
- EU CBAM mechanismmixed
The carbon border adjustment mechanism will gradually introduce a carbon price on imported fertilizers between 2026 and 2034. For Yara this could reduce the competitive disadvantage against EU producers, but uncertainty about its application may bring volatility. 1
- Volatile European energy pricesheadwind
Volatile energy prices in Europe affect production costs, which the company tries to offset by importing ammonia from overseas plants. If gas prices stay high, European margins could come under pressure. 1
- Demand for sustainable agriculturetailwind
Population growth and the need for food security support structural fertilizer demand, and high-efficiency, low-emission solutions fit the company's strategy. 1
Competitive position
Yara competes with other large nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer producers, and its leading position in traded ammonia and premium products differentiates it. Regional competition and price pressure can however limit these advantages in some markets. 1
Differentiation through premium products, digital solutions and agronomy is the stated strategy for keeping price premiums over cheaper alternatives. 1
- CF IndustriesCF
US nitrogen producer with exposure to cheap gas in North America; the analysed source does not detail its position relative to Yara.
- NutrienNTR
Global fertilizer producer and distributor active in nitrogen and potash segments; the source does not allow quantitative comparison.
- MosaicMOS
Specialized in phosphates and potash, competing indirectly in crop nutrient markets; information in the source is limited.
- Middle East and Asian producers
Producers with access to cheap gas or large export markets influence global urea and ammonia prices, acting as indirect competitors.
News & filings
In the press
- Nava Yara J, încărcată cu produse petroliere, a fost lovită de o dronă în rada Sulina, în apele teritoriale ale României - ZIUA de ConstantaSurge — Google News · 15 Oct 2026 · RO
- VIDEO: Liderul SLN, Adrian Mihălcioiu, despre atacul asupra navei Yara J, în apropiere de Sulina - „Nu mai avem nicio zonă sigură” - ZIUA de ConstantaSurge — Google News · 15 Oct 2026 · RO
- Primele imagini cu nava Yara J în flăcări, după ce a fost lovită de drone la Sulina - Observator NewsSurge — Google News · 14 Oct 2026 · RO
- Alertă maritimă lângă Sulina. Nava Yara J, sub pavilionul Insulelor Comore, implicată într-un incident/MAE este în legătură permanentă cu autoritățile competenteMediafax · 14 Oct 2026 · RO
- Alertă maritimă lângă Sulina. Nava Yara J, sub pavilionul Insulelor Comore, implicată într-un incidentMediafax · 14 Oct 2026 · RO
- UPDATE ARSVOM, misiune de salvare pentru nava YARA J în zona Sulina. Liderul SLN anunță un posibil atac. Echipajul este în siguranță - Constanta NewsSurge — Google News · 14 Oct 2026 · RO
- Misiune de urgență în Marea Neagră după un atac cu dronă asupra tancului YARA J - www.goldring.roSurge — Google News · 14 Oct 2026 · RO
- UPDATE. Alertă în Marea Neagră! Nava Yara J ar fi lovită de o dronă în apropiere de Sulina - ZIUA de ConstantaSurge — Google News · 14 Oct 2026 · RO
- Building an Advanced AI Skill Security Auditing Pipeline with NVIDIA SkillSpector, LangGraph, YARA Rules, SARIF, and CI Policy GatesMarkTechPost (Asia AI) · 04 Aug 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202521 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202408 May 2025
- Annual report 202308 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Yara International ASA · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.