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olivLaw · US equity research

Apple Inc. AAPL

Electronic Computers · SIC 3571 · Vertical: Electronic Computers (SIC 3571)

331.90USD−1.90% · 1 dayClose 03 Nov 2026

Apple designs and sells smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, plus a fast-growing set of digital services. It matters because its large active device base and rising services revenue shape the company's margin profile. Third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue reached 109.4 billion USD, and annual net sales were 416.2 billion USD in fiscal 2025.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 03 Nov 2026, Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock was 331.90 USD (−1.90% on the day), with market capitalisation 4,823.2 bn USD, P/E 37.0 on diluted EPS of 8.98 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.32%, beta 1.07, 52-week range 246.63–348.91 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q4 2026): revenue of 114.5 bn USD (+11.7% YoY), net income of 30.7 bn USD (+11.8% YoY), diluted EPS 2.10 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
4,823.2 bn USD
shares as of 23 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
37.0
Diluted EPS TTM 8.98 · TTM to 26 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
2.71%
TTM to 26 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.32%
DPS 12m 1.06
Beta (2y)
1.07
Volatility (1y) 24%
52-week range
246.63348.91

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
41.7
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
333.92 – 350.62
below the lower band · %B -0.12 · band width 4.9%
SMA 50 / 200
334.05 / 297.34
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
1.88 / 3.42
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−0.5%−2.0%+1.5 pp—
3 months+7.3%−2.2%+9.4 pp—
6 months+16.8%+4.3%+12.5 pp—
Year to date+22.1%+10.6%+11.5 pp—
1 year+23.4%+10.5%+12.9 pp−15.4%
3 years+87.9%+73.7%+14.2 pp+16.5%
5 years+119.9%+61.7%+58.1 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−13.8%
02 Dec 2025 → 30 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−33.4%
26 Dec 2024 → 08 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
+17.1%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q4 2026 · 26 Sept 2026

Revenue
114.5 bn USD
+11.7% YoY
Net income
30.7 bn USD
+11.8% YoY
Diluted EPS
2.10
+13.6% YoY
net / operating
26.8% / 31.1%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '26
Revenue124.3 bn95.4 bn94.0 bn102.5 bn143.8 bn111.2 bn109.4 bn114.5 bn
Cost of revenue66.0 bn50.5 bn50.3 bn54.1 bn74.5 bn56.4 bn54.6 bn59.7 bn
Gross profit58.3 bn44.9 bn43.7 bn48.3 bn69.2 bn54.8 bn54.8 bn54.8 bn
Research & development8.3 bn8.6 bn8.9 bn8.9 bn10.9 bn11.4 bn11.7 bn11.7 bn
SG&A7.2 bn6.7 bn6.7 bn7.0 bn7.5 bn7.5 bn7.3 bn7.5 bn
Operating income42.8 bn29.6 bn28.2 bn32.4 bn50.9 bn35.9 bn35.7 bn35.6 bn
Depreciation & amortisation3.1 bn2.7 bn ≈2.8 bn ≈3.1 bn3.2 bn3.4 bn ≈3.3 bn ≈3.5 bn
Pre-tax income42.6 bn29.3 bn28.0 bn32.8 bn51.0 bn35.8 bn36.3 bn36.1 bn
Income tax6.3 bn4.5 bn4.6 bn5.3 bn8.9 bn6.3 bn6.5 bn5.4 bn
Net income36.3 bn24.8 bn23.4 bn27.5 bn42.1 bn29.6 bn29.8 bn30.7 bn
Diluted EPS2.401.651.571.85 ≈2.842.012.022.10 ≈
Operating cash flow29.9 bn24.0 bn ≈27.9 bn ≈29.7 bn53.9 bn28.7 bn ≈34.4 bn ≈28.1 bn
Capex2.9 bn3.1 bn ≈3.5 bn ≈3.2 bn2.4 bn2.0 bn ≈2.5 bn ≈2.2 bn
Dividends paid3.9 bn3.8 bn ≈3.9 bn ≈3.9 bn3.9 bn3.8 bn ≈4.0 bn ≈3.9 bn
Share repurchases23.6 bn25.9 bn ≈21.1 bn ≈20.1 bn24.7 bn12.3 bn ≈25.1 bn ≈24.3 bn

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 93 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 2.7, median 26.1, max 40.6; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20192020202120222023202420252026
Revenue260.2 bn274.5 bn365.8 bn394.3 bn383.3 bn391.0 bn416.2 bn478.8 bn
Revenue YoY−2.0%+5.5%+33.3%+7.8%−2.8%+2.0%+6.4%+15.1%
Net income55.3 bn57.4 bn94.7 bn99.8 bn97.0 bn93.7 bn112.0 bn132.2 bn
Net income YoY−7.2%+3.9%+64.9%+5.4%−2.8%−3.4%+19.5%+18.0%
Diluted EPS2.973.285.616.116.136.087.468.98
Diluted EPS YoY−0.3%+10.4%+71.0%+8.9%+0.3%−0.8%+22.7%+20.4%
net %21.2%20.9%25.9%25.3%25.3%24.0%26.9%27.6%
Free cash flow58.9 bn73.4 bn93.0 bn111.4 bn99.6 bn108.8 bn98.8 bn136.1 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 26 Sept 2026

Cash
36.3 bn USD
Financial debt
78.1 bn USD
Net debt
41.8 bn USD
Equity
112.1 bn USD
Total assets
404.5 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.70x
Current ratio
1.02x
ROE
142.3%
ROA
34.6%
FCF margin
28.4%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2024
391.0 bn
2025
416.2 bn
2026
478.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2024
210.4 bn
2025
221.0 bn
2026
245.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Gross profit
2024
180.7 bn
2025
195.2 bn
2026
233.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Research & development
2024
31.4 bn
2025
34.6 bn
2026
45.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

SG&A
2024
26.1 bn
2025
27.6 bn
2026
29.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Operating income
2024
123.2 bn
2025
133.1 bn
2026
158.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2024
11.4 bn
2025
11.7 bn
2026
13.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

EBITDA
2024
134.7 bn ≈
2025
144.7 bn ≈
2026
171.5 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026derived

Interest expense
2024
—
2025
—
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2023verified

Pre-tax income
2024
123.5 bn
2025
132.7 bn
2026
159.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Income tax
2024
29.7 bn
2025
20.7 bn
2026
27.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Net income
2024
93.7 bn
2025
112.0 bn
2026
132.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2024
6.08
2025
7.46
2026
8.98

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2024
15.4 bn
2025
15.0 bn
2026
14.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Dividend per share
2024
0.98
2025
1.02
2026
1.06

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2024
29.9 bn
2025
35.9 bn
2026
36.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Receivables
2024
33.4 bn
2025
39.8 bn
2026
43.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Inventories
2024
7.3 bn
2025
5.7 bn
2026
14.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Current assets
2024
153.0 bn
2025
148.0 bn
2026
173.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
45.7 bn
2025
49.8 bn
2026
52.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2024
—
2025
13.3 bn
2026
25.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Total assets
2024
365.0 bn
2025
359.2 bn
2026
404.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Accounts payable
2024
69.0 bn
2025
69.9 bn
2026
82.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Short-term debt
2024
10.9 bn
2025
12.4 bn
2026
9.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Long-term debt
2024
85.8 bn
2025
78.3 bn
2026
68.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Current liabilities
2024
176.4 bn
2025
165.6 bn
2026
169.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Total liabilities
2024
308.0 bn
2025
285.5 bn
2026
292.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Equity
2024
57.0 bn †
2025
73.7 bn †
2026
112.1 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2024
15.1 bn
2025
14.8 bn
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Aug 2025verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2024
118.3 bn
2025
111.5 bn
2026
145.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Capex
2024
9.4 bn
2025
12.7 bn
2026
9.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Free cash flow
2024
108.8 bn ≈
2025
98.8 bn ≈
2026
136.1 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2024
2.9 bn
2025
15.2 bn
2026
-17.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
-122.0 bn
2025
-120.7 bn
2026
-127.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Dividends paid
2024
15.2 bn
2025
15.4 bn
2026
15.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Share repurchases
2024
94.9 bn
2025
90.7 bn
2026
86.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
15.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue CAGR 3Y
7.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Revenue CAGR 5Y
5.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EBIT growth (YoY)
18.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income growth (YoY)
18.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income CAGR 3Y
10.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Net income CAGR 5Y
6.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EPS growth (YoY)
20.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EPS CAGR 3Y
13.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
EPS CAGR 5Y
9.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
FCF growth (YoY)
37.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Profitability

Gross margin
48.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EBITDA margin
35.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EBIT margin
33.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net margin
27.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
FCF margin
28.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Returns

ROE
142.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
ROA
34.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
ROIC
92.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
ROCE
67.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
11.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
11.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
41.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
0.2x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
145.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Capital expenditure
9.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Free cash flow
136.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawFY 2026
FCF conversion
102.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Cash conversion
84.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
32 days
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
113 days
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
4,823.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
4,865.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
36.5x
computed by olivLawFY 2026
P/E (TTM)
37.0x
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Earnings yield
2.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
P/B
43.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
P/S
10.1x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
28.4x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
30.8x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
10.2x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
P/FCF
35.5x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
FCF yield
2.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
2.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026

4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

331.90 USD

03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 4,823.2 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
4,823.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
37.0x
computed by olivLawFY 2026
P/B
43.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
28.4x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
ROE
142.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Net margin
27.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
15.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Dividend yield
0.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Coverage and freshness

36/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 26 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 26 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 23 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 03 Nov 2026
verified 3155derived 259

Score by group

100% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
  • Peers: EV/Salesunavailable · not enough peers
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Electronic Computers (SIC 3571)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
Gross margin · Quality48.8%22 (on a fixed band)11%
EBIT margin · Quality33.0%100 (vs peers)9%
FCF margin · Quality28.4%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth7.7%31 (on a fixed band)17%
Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth15.1%33 (vs peers)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet0.2x92 (on a fixed band)6%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.0x13 (on a fixed band)6%
EV/Sales · Valuation10.2x18 (on a fixed band)17%
FCF yield · Valuation2.8%56 (on a fixed band)13%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns2.1%69 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet53/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Growth32/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality70/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns69/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
  • Valuation35/100 · 2/2 factors with a value

Memo

Apple Inc. (AAPL). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-09-26.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 478.8 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 15.1%; net margin 27.6%; ROE 142.3%; net debt/EBITDA 0.2x.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • EBIT margin: 33.0%
  • FCF margin: 28.4%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 0.2x

What contradicts it

  • Gross margin: 48.8%
  • Current ratio: 1.0x
  • EV/Sales: 10.2x

Versus the vertical median

Electronic Computers (SIC 3571) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 6 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
37.0x
vertical median 35.2x
above median (+5.1%)
EV/EBITDA
28.4x
vertical median —
P/S
10.1x
vertical median 1.0x
above median (+922.7%)
P/B
43.0x
vertical median 1.4x
above median (+2,991.6%)
ROE
142.3%
vertical median 1.3%
above median (+10,610.2%)
Net margin
27.6%
vertical median 2.1%
above median (+1,227.9%)
EBIT margin
33.0%
vertical median -3.3%
above median
Revenue YoY
15.1%
vertical median 25.0%
below median (−39.7%)
Net debt/EBITDA
0.2x
vertical median —
Dividend yield
0.3%
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
AAPLApple Inc.4,823.2 bn37.0142.3%27.6%+15.1%+23% / +88%
DELLDell Technologies Inc.261.4 bn23.7—7.5%+18.8%+206% / +438%
SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc.20.6 bn9.621.5%5.7%+77.8%−7% / +15%
OMCLOmnicell, Inc1.8 bn46.63.1%3.1%+6.5%+8% / +18%
OSSOne Stop Systems, Inc.116.7 m369.11.3%1.0%+31.2%−23% / +126%
SCKTSocket Mobile, Inc.2.5 m—-155.7%-107.5%−19.6%−77% / −79%
ZEPPZepp Health Corp0—-17.2%-15.5%+41.8%−92% / −59%

1- and 3-year price returns: for AAPL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
205.10
Total return -38% · Per year -38%
362.05
Total return 9% · Per year 9%
544.61
Total return 65% · Per year 65%
3 years
212.06
Total return -35% · Per year -14%
419.96
Total return 28% · Per year 8%
691.74
Total return 110% · Per year 28%
5 years
219.27
Total return -33% · Per year -8%
487.14
Total return 49% · Per year 8%
878.62
Total return 167% · Per year 22%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 104.99
  • Net margin± 73.49
  • Annual revenue growth± 58.53
  • Annual dilution± 6.18

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-K (03 Nov 2026), 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results).

In brief

Apple designs and sells smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, plus a fast-growing set of digital services. It matters because its large active device base and rising services revenue shape the company's margin profile. Third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue reached 1 109.4 billion USD, and annual net sales were 2 416.2 billion USD in fiscal 2025.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The integrated ecosystem of hardware, software and services and the large active device base support customer loyalty.
  • High gross margins, especially in services, provide financial flexibility for research investment.
  • Strong cash generation supports share repurchase programs and dividends.

Weaknesses

  • Dependence on a small number of suppliers for certain critical components can limit flexibility.
  • iPhone revenue remains concentrated, making the company sensitive to model launch cycles.
  • Exposure to Greater China has been volatile and declined in fiscal 2025 before recovering.

Opportunities

  • Growth in services and advertising could add revenue with higher margins.
  • New artificial intelligence features could stimulate device upgrade cycles.
  • Sales growth in some regions, such as Europe and Asia Pacific, could offset pressure elsewhere.

Threats

  • Tariffs and trade disputes could raise costs and disrupt the supply chain.
  • Competitors with aggressive pricing could reduce market share and pressure margins.
  • Shortages of advanced components and their rising prices could affect product availability.

Risks

  • Tariffs and trade restrictionshigh

    Tariffs and retaliatory measures can raise costs and change the supply chain. The ultimate effect remains uncertain.

  • Component costs and shortageshigh

    Shortages of advanced chips, NAND and DRAM can limit production and raise costs, affecting margins.

  • Concentrated manufacturingmedium

    Most manufacturing is performed outside the U.S., mainly in China mainland and Asia, which exposes the company to disruptions.

  • Competitive pressuremedium

    Competitors offering low prices or imitating products could reduce market share and margins.

  • Economy and demandlow

    Slower growth, inflation and higher interest rates could reduce consumer spending.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If growth in services and iPhone revenue is sustained, the company could continue to expand profitability.
  • The large active device base and integrated ecosystem may support customer loyalty and recurring sales.
  • Tariff refunds and cash generation could support capital return programs.

What would break the thesis

  • If tariffs and component costs intensify, gross margins could decline.
  • Dependence on iPhone and on the Greater China market remains a risk if demand weakens.
  • Aggressive competition, including from rivals that imitate products, could pressure prices.

What to watch

  • Trend in gross margin and tariff effectsQ4 2026
  • Costs of NAND and DRAM components2027
  • Effect of Siri AI on the upgrade cycle2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-K (03 Nov 2026), 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results).

The business

Apple designs, manufactures and markets iPhone, Mac, iPad, wearables, home and accessories, and sells related services such as the App Store, AppleCare, cloud services, advertising, payments and subscriptions. It manages its business mainly geographically through five reportable segments. According to its annual report, net sales were 416.2 billion USD in fiscal 2025, with Services contributing 109.2 billion USD.

Segments

iPhone

iPhone remains the largest sales category, with net sales of 209.6 billion USD in fiscal 2025. In the first nine months of fiscal 2026, iPhone revenue grew 22% year over year.

Services

Services include advertising, the App Store, cloud services, AppleCare and content subscriptions, and carry the highest gross margin in the company. The services gross margin was 75.4% in fiscal 2025, well above the products margin.

Market context

The markets for smartphones, personal computers, tablets and wearables are highly competitive, with price pressure and downward pressure on margins. Apple holds a minority share of these markets globally, while earning revenue from its device and services ecosystem. Some of the markets it competes in have at times seen little growth or contraction.

Customers are mainly consumers, small and mid-sized businesses, education, enterprise and government. Sales go direct through retail and online stores, and indirectly through carriers and resellers, which accounted for 60% of net sales in fiscal 2025.

Trends

  • Tariffsmixed

    New tariffs on U.S. imports from the second quarter of fiscal 2025 could raise costs and alter the supply chain. After a Supreme Court ruling striking down certain tariffs, refunds recognized helped third-quarter gross margin.

  • Component costsheadwind

    Shortages of advanced chips, NAND and DRAM have raised component costs, and the company expects these trends to intensify. If price increases cannot fully offset higher costs, margins could come under pressure.

  • Growth in servicestailwind

    Services are growing faster than hardware and carry higher margins, and the revenue mix is shifting toward them. If this growth continues, profitability could benefit.

  • Artificial intelligencemixed

    Apple introduced Siri AI and new software versions in the third quarter of fiscal 2026. The effect on device upgrade cycles is still uncertain and depends on customer adoption.

Competitive position

Competitors include firms with very large technical, marketing and distribution resources, some with low-priced product lines and large installed bases. Some rivals may sell at little or no profit, which intensifies price pressure. Apple differentiates through hardware-software integration and its own ecosystem.

  • Samsung Electronics

    Competitor in smartphones, tablets and wearables, with product lines at varied price points.

  • Low-cost personal computer makers

    Competitors with low-priced products and large installed bases in personal computers.

  • Digital services and content platforms

    Competitors offering content, cloud and advertising platforms that compete with the company's services.

  • Firms that imitate product features

    Competitors that copy Apple's features and applications to offer more competitive solutions.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-09-27 · SEC / Apple Inc. · 31 Oct 2025
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-27 · SEC / Apple Inc. · 31 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Apple Inc. · 30 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.

Apple Inc. (AAPL): stock, results, valuation and forecast · olivLaw