olivlawolivlaw

olivLaw · US equity research

AerSale Corporation ASLE

Wholesale-Machinery, Equipment & Supplies · SIC 5080 · Vertical: Wholesale-Machinery, Equipment & Supplies (SIC 5080)

4.83USD+2.99% · 1 dayClose 30 Oct 2026

AerSale is a platform serving the commercial aviation aftermarket, extending the working life of mid-life aircraft through leasing, used serviceable material sales and MRO services. The company entered 2026 with falling revenue, as the absence of Flight Equipment sales weighed on results; second-quarter 2026 revenue was $70.9 million, and the outlook now depends on deliveries expected in the second half of the year.

At the close of 30 Oct 2026, AerSale Corporation (ASLE) stock was 4.83 USD (+2.99% on the day), with market capitalisation 230.5 m USD, beta 0.85, 52-week range 4.57–7.80 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 70.9 m USD (−33.9% YoY), net income of -5.6 m USD (−165.0% YoY), diluted EPS -0.12 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
230.5 m USD
shares as of 03 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -0.08 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-1.60%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.85
Volatility (1y) 37%
52-week range
4.577.80

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
46.6
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
4.51 – 5.05
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.60 · band width 11.3%
SMA 50 / 200
5.19 / 6.27
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.15 / -0.18
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−7.8%−0.9%−6.9 pp—
3 months−22.1%+1.2%−23.3 pp—
6 months−29.5%+4.8%−34.3 pp—
Year to date−32.1%+10.7%−42.8 pp—
1 year−35.2%+11.1%−46.3 pp+14.4%
3 years−68.4%+80.7%−149.2 pp+53.8%
5 years−78.4%+64.6%−143.0 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−41.4%
27 Feb 2026 → 21 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−80.9%
01 Nov 2021 → 10 Oct 2024
Compound annual growth (5y)
−26.4%
S&P 500 +10.5%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
70.9 m USD
−33.9% YoY
Net income
-5.6 m USD
−165.0% YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.12
−166.7% YoY
net / operating
-7.9% / -6.7%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue82.7 m77.1 m65.8 m107.4 m71.2 m90.9 m70.6 m70.9 m
Cost of revenue59.0 m55.4 m47.8 m72.0 m49.7 m60.0 m51.7 m54.7 m
Gross profit23.7 m21.7 m18.0 m35.3 m21.5 m31.0 m18.9 m16.3 m
SG&A21.7 m23.6 m24.6 m22.8 m18.6 m23.9 m22.2 m21.0 m
Operating income2.0 m-1.9 m-6.6 m12.5 m2.9 m7.1 m-3.3 m-4.8 m
Depreciation & amortisation8.2 m3.7 m4.9 m4.5 m4.8 m5.1 m6.1 m5.6 m
Pre-tax income587.0 k-3.1 m-6.0 m10.3 m613.0 k5.6 m-4.5 m-7.2 m
Income tax78.0 k497.0 k-720.0 k1.8 m733.0 k187.0 k-1.0 m-1.6 m
Net income509.0 k-3.6 m-5.3 m8.6 m-120.0 k5.4 m-3.5 m-5.6 m
Diluted EPS0.01-0.07-0.100.180.000.11 ≈-0.07-0.12
Operating cash flow-21.5 m37.5 m-45.2 m19.8 m ≈-8.9 m ≈11.4 m-26.7 m-6.8 m ≈
Capex3.6 m5.3 m2.4 m1.2 m ≈907.0 k ≈1.6 m1.1 m744.0 k ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue290.7 m304.2 m208.9 m340.4 m408.5 m334.5 m345.1 m335.3 m
Revenue YoYunavailable+4.6%−31.3%+62.9%+20.0%−18.1%+3.2%−2.8%
Net income8.9 m15.5 m8.1 m36.1 m43.9 m-5.6 m5.9 m8.6 m
Net income YoYunavailable+75.1%−47.8%+346.2%+21.4%−112.7%unavailable+46.6%
Diluted EPS-668.04-516.987.390.760.83-0.150.110.18
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable−89.7%+9.2%−118.1%unavailable+63.6%
net %3.0%5.1%3.9%10.6%10.7%-1.7%1.7%2.6%
Free cash flowunavailable43.8 m-14.4 m77.6 m-8.6 m-185.5 m-2.9 m-29.1 m

Reported results vs expectations

Loading…

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
4.4 m USD
Financial debt
112.3 m USD
Net debt
108.0 m USD
Equity
424.4 m USD
Total assets
640.5 m USD
Debt / equity
0.26x
Current ratio
3.71x
ROE
1.9%
ROA
1.4%
FCF margin
-8.7%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
334.5 m
2024
345.1 m
2025
335.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
242.1 m
2024
241.1 m
2025
229.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
92.4 m
2024
103.9 m
2025
105.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

SG&A
2023
103.2 m
2024
94.2 m
2025
90.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-10.8 m
2024
9.7 m
2025
15.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
10.5 m
2024
16.0 m
2025
19.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-311.0 k ≈
2024
25.8 m ≈
2025
35.1 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
733.0 k
2024
4.8 m
2025
7.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-7.7 m
2024
7.8 m
2025
10.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
-2.1 m
2024
2.0 m
2025
2.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
-5.6 m
2024
5.9 m
2025
8.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.15
2024
0.11
2025
0.18

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
51.5 m
2024
53.4 m
2025
48.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
5.9 m
2024
4.7 m
2025
4.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
31.2 m
2024
34.6 m
2025
42.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
177.8 m
2024
224.8 m
2025
205.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
264.8 m
2024
284.0 m
2025
269.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
27.7 m
2024
36.3 m
2025
32.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
19.9 m
2024
19.9 m
2025
19.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
11.7 m
2024
10.2 m
2025
8.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
553.9 m
2024
604.7 m
2025
640.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
29.9 m
2024
34.2 m
2025
29.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
1.3 m
2024
605.0 k
2025
993.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
36.3 m
2024
40.4 m
2025
111.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
45.7 m
2024
75.0 m
2025
72.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
108.9 m
2024
149.1 m
2025
216.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
445.0 m
2024
455.6 m
2025
424.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-174.2 m
2024
11.2 m
2025
-23.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
11.4 m
2024
14.1 m
2025
6.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-185.5 m ≈
2024
-2.9 m ≈
2025
-29.1 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
3.1 m
2024
-16.1 m
2025
-3.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
29.7 m
2024
3.8 m
2025
26.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-2.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-6.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
9.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
62.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
46.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-42.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
1.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
63.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-39.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
-52.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
28.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
7.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
0.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-1.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-11.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
-0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
-0.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
0.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
0.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
145.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
6.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
0.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
3.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
-31.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
4.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-35.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
-132.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
55 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
409 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
67 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
397 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
230.5 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
376.3 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-1.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
0.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
16.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
204.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
1.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-15.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

4.83 USD

30 Oct 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 230.5 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
230.5 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
16.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
-0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-1.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-2.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 03 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 07 Aug 2026
verified 1071derived 76

Score by group

73% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Wholesale-Machinery, Equipment & Supplies (SIC 5080)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality0.3%0 (on a fixed band)14%
Net margin · Quality-1.2%0 (vs peers)9%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-6.4%0 (on a fixed band)11%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-39.9%0 (on a fixed band)11%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet6.2x0 (on a fixed band)14%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet0.2x0 (on a fixed band)9%
Current ratio · Balance sheet3.3x100 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuation16.0x0 (on a fixed band)14%
FCF yield · Valuation-15.3%0 (on a fixed band)11%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet20/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

AerSale Corporation (ASLE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 335.3 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -2.8%; net margin -1.2%; ROE -0.9%; net debt/EBITDA 6.2x.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Current ratio: 3.3x

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: 0.3%
  • Net margin: -1.2%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -6.4%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -39.9%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 6.2x
  • Interest coverage: 0.2x
  • EV/EBITDA: 16.0x
  • FCF yield: -15.3%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, P/E (TTM), Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Wholesale-Machinery, Equipment & Supplies (SIC 5080) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 26.0x
EV/EBITDA
16.0x
vertical median —
P/S
0.8x
vertical median 1.1x
below median (−33.9%)
P/B
0.6x
vertical median 2.5x
below median (−77.7%)
ROE
-0.9%
vertical median 13.8%
below median (−106.5%)
Net margin
-1.2%
vertical median 7.3%
below median (−116.8%)
EBIT margin
0.6%
vertical median 9.4%
below median (−93.6%)
Revenue YoY
-2.8%
vertical median 9.8%
below median (−129.1%)
Net debt/EBITDA
6.2x
vertical median —
Dividend yield
—
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
AITApplied Industrial Technologies, Inc.10.7 bn26.022.5%8.4%+8.8%+14% / +92%
DSGRDistribution Solutions Group, Inc.1.6 bn179.81.4%0.4%+9.8%+28% / +16%
WLFCWillis Lease Finance Corp879.6 m4.413.8%12.0%+28.3%−3% / +179%
ASLEAerSale Corporation230.5 m—-0.9%-1.2%−2.8%−35% / −68%
HDSNHudson Technologies Inc181.4 m20.93.6%3.5%+4.0%−53% / −67%
TLIHTen-League International Holdings Limited161.7 m36.749.6%7.3%+38.4%+36% / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for ASLE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    AerSale is a platform serving the commercial aviation aftermarket, extending the working life of mid-life aircraft through leasing, used serviceable material sales and MRO services. The company entered 2026 with falling revenue, as the absence of Flight Equipment sales weighed on results; second-quarter 2026 revenue was $70.9 million 3, and the outlook now depends on deliveries expected in the second half of the year.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The integrated offering linking equipment acquisition, disassembly, USM parts and MRO creates cross-selling opportunities across segments 1.
    • FAA 'unlimited' repair station ratings allow faster introduction of new capabilities through approved self-certification procedures 1.
    • Top customers have been with the company for at least five years, suggesting a stable and recurring customer base 1.

    Weaknesses

    • Revenue is highly volatile from quarter to quarter because it depends on the timing of Flight Equipment sales, which can be absent entirely in a period 3.
    • Recent quarterly results showed a net loss and very low adjusted EBITDA, while liquidity remains limited relative to funding needs 3.
    • Operating cash flow has been negative because of continued investment in inventory and feedstock acquisitions 3.

    Opportunities

    • The FAA compliance deadline for AerSafe could support demand in the second half of 2026 3.
    • Expanding the engine and freighter leasing portfolio could bring more recurring revenue if new contracts materialize 3.
    • Government and defense contracts, typically steadier than the commercial cycle, are a growth direction the company has named 1.

    Threats

    • Geopolitical crises and trade restrictions could disrupt supply chains and reduce customer demand 12.
    • Bankruptcies or reduced activity at airlines can create oversupply of equipment and lower its market values 1.
    • Competitive pressure from better-resourced rivals could erode the company's margins 1.

    Risks

    • Revenue volatilityhigh

      Flight Equipment sales are lumpy, and their absence in a quarter can sharply reduce revenue and results, as happened in the second quarter of 2026 3.

    • Liquidity and financinghigh

      The company reported limited liquidity and negative operating cash flow, and reliance on credit facilities could constrain growth if access to funding tightens 13.

    • Recoverability of asset valuesmedium

      Lower demand or lower market values for aircraft and engines could lead to impairments and difficulty recovering costs 1.

    • Dependence on airline outsourcingmedium

      MRO volumes depend on airlines choosing to outsource maintenance, and a reversal of that trend could affect results 1.

    • Shortage of skilled personnelmedium

      Difficulty attracting and keeping qualified technicians could raise labor costs and hinder execution 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If deferred Flight Equipment sales and lease deals close in the second half of the year, results could recover quickly, according to the company's release 3.
    • The integrated model and loyal customer base could support recurring MRO and USM revenue even in periods of lumpy equipment sales 1.
    • The AerSafe FAA deadline and the CRJ multi-line contract could drive higher activity in TechOps 3.

    What would break the thesis

    • Recent results are weak, and a delay in converting sales could prolong losses and pressure liquidity 3.
    • Investments in inventory and labor made ahead of demand could remain a burden if the promised volumes do not materialize 3.
    • Larger rivals with superior financial and technical resources could compress the company's margins through more aggressive offers 1.

    What to watch

    • Revenue trend in TechOps, including the ramp-up of the CRJ maintenance contractQ3 2026
    • Level of liquidity and use of the revolving credit facilityQ3 2026
    • Demand for AerSafe ahead of the FAA November 2026 compliance deadlinenext 10-K

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    AerSale provides full-service support to owners and operators of mid-life commercial aircraft that lack the infrastructure or expertise to maintain them cost-effectively through the second half of their operating life 1. Its model combines acquiring Flight Equipment from airlines and lessors, disassembling it into used serviceable material (USM), and providing MRO services, so that each asset is monetized to the fullest 1. The company was formed through the business combination with Monocle Acquisition Corporation in December 2020 1.

    The company sells to more than 1,000 customers worldwide, including passenger and cargo airlines, government agencies, MRO providers and leasing companies 1. According to its annual report, top customers have been with it for years, and much of its revenue comes from customers using more than one service, supporting the recurring nature of the business 1. The U.S. dollar is its primary functional currency, to reduce foreign currency risk 1.

    Growth priorities include broadening MRO capabilities using FAA 'unlimited' repair station ratings, deepening government business, launching proprietary Engineered Solutions such as AerSafe and AerAware, expanding geographically and pursuing strategic acquisitions 1. The company has said it will keep evaluating acquisitions that meet its financial return profile 1.

    Segments

    Asset Management Solutions

    The Asset Management Solutions segment represented approximately 63% of revenue in fiscal 2025 1. It covers leasing and sale of aircraft and engines and their disassembly into USM parts; in the second quarter of 2026 segment revenue fell to $37.1 million as Flight Equipment sales were absent, while leasing grew 23.

    Market context

    The commercial aviation aftermarket is highly competitive, with participants including OEMs, MRO providers, airlines, leasing companies and USM sellers 1. The company's revenue is shaped by the cyclicality of the industry, maintenance demand and the availability of Flight Equipment for purchase, and recent results reflect timing gaps in sales 13.

    Demand for maintenance and parts depends on the number of aircraft operating and how far airlines outsource maintenance 1. Demand for AerSafe, linked to an FAA compliance deadline in November 2026, is expected to peak in the third quarter of 2026 according to the company's release 3.

    Trends

    • Cyclicality of commercial aviationheadwind

      The commercial aviation industry is historically cyclical and is affected by geopolitical instability, fuel prices and credit constraints, which can reduce demand for parts and services 1. If these conditions worsen, the company could see lower activity.

    • Demand for mid-life fleetstailwind

      Operators that prefer to extend fleet life rather than buy new aircraft may support demand for the company's services and parts, a model AerSale describes as an alternative to new equipment purchases 1.

    • Trade tensions and tariffsheadwind

      U.S. tariffs and possible retaliation by other countries could raise the cost of components and services for customers, which could weigh on demand 2.

    • Leasing and MRO expansionmixed

      Growth of the engine and B757 freighter lease portfolio and expanding MRO capacity could support more recurring revenue if execution holds 3.

    Competitive position

    Competition is intense and comes from OEMs, MRO providers, airlines, leasing companies and USM distributors 1. Some competitors have substantially greater financial, technical and marketing resources, which may let them offer broader service ranges at more attractive prices 1.

    The company's advantage lies in its integrated offering spanning acquisition, leasing, USM parts and MRO, together with its FAA 'unlimited' repair station ratings 1. If this integration fails to add value, its competitive position could weaken.

    • AAR Corp.AIR

      Named by the company as a competitor in both Asset Management Solutions and TechOps 1.

    • Willis Lease Finance CorpWLFC

      Named by the company as a competitor in the asset and leasing space 1.

    • VSE CorporationVSEC

      Named by the company as a competitor to its TechOps segment 1.

    • HEICO CorporationHEI

      Named by the company among competitors in aviation parts and assets 1.

    News & filings

    In the press

    No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / AerSale Corporation · 10 Mar 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / AerSale Corporation · 07 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / AerSale Corporation · 06 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.

    AerSale Corporation (ASLE): stock, results, valuation and forecast · olivLaw