olivLaw · US equity research
Academy Sports + Outdoors, Inc. ASO
Retail-Miscellaneous Shopping Goods Stores · SIC 5940 · Vertical: Miscellaneous retail (SIC 594x)
Academy Sports + Outdoors is a US full-line sporting goods and outdoor recreation retailer, with about 322 stores at the end of fiscal 2025 and net sales of 6053.4 million USD. In fiscal 2026 it grew sales slightly, but comparable sales were negative in the second quarter as demand stayed pressured, especially among lower-income households.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Academy Sports + Outdoors, Inc. (ASO) stock was 67.69 USD (+11.22% on the day), with market capitalisation 4.2 bn USD, P/E 11.3 on diluted EPS of 5.99 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.25%, beta 1.33, 52-week range 41.73–67.69 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2027): revenue of 1.6 bn USD (+3.0% YoY), net income of 137.9 m USD (+9.9% YoY), diluted EPS 2.17 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 76.0
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 52.06 – 65.43
- above the upper band · %B 1.17 · band width 22.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 52.45 / 52.86
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 3.04 / 2.70
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +30.2% | −2.0% | +32.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +41.4% | −2.2% | +43.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | +24.3% | +4.3% | +20.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | +35.5% | +10.6% | +24.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +47.1% | +10.5% | +36.7 pp | −34.6% |
| 3 years | +38.6% | +73.7% | −35.1 pp | +13.5% |
| 5 years | +47.2% | +61.7% | −14.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2027 · 01 Aug 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | Q2 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 886.6 m | 1.1 bn | 892.5 m | 1.0 bn | 890.3 m | 1.1 bn | 962.7 m | 981.4 m |
| Gross profit | 456.7 m | 540.2 m | 458.9 m | 576.7 m | 493.4 m | 576.6 m | 479.3 m | 665.9 m |
| SG&A | 365.2 m | 385.5 m | 389.6 m | 404.4 m | 393.0 m | 406.5 m | 404.7 m | 419.5 m |
| Operating income | 91.5 m | 154.7 m | 69.3 m | 172.4 m | 100.4 m | 170.1 m | 74.7 m | 246.4 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 29.3 m ≈ | 31.0 m | 30.2 m | 31.0 m ≈ | 30.9 m ≈ | 30.8 m | 30.8 m | 30.4 m ≈ |
| Pre-tax income | 88.7 m | 165.3 m | 63.0 m | 164.8 m | 94.0 m | 164.2 m | 68.9 m | 178.4 m |
| Income tax | 23.0 m | 31.7 m | 16.9 m | 39.4 m | 22.5 m | 30.5 m | 16.2 m | 40.5 m |
| Net income | 65.8 m | 133.6 m | 46.1 m | 125.4 m | 71.6 m | 133.7 m | 52.7 m | 137.9 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.92 | 1.89 | 0.68 | 1.85 | 1.05 | 1.97 ≈ | 0.80 | 2.17 |
| Operating cash flow | 96.9 m ≈ | 140.2 m | 157.5 m | 78.6 m ≈ | 49.0 m ≈ | 149.7 m | 160.6 m | 188.4 m ≈ |
| Capex | 62.4 m ≈ | 63.7 m | 50.8 m | 56.7 m ≈ | 62.6 m ≈ | 42.5 m | 38.9 m | 72.4 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 7.7 m ≈ | 7.6 m | 8.7 m | 8.6 m ≈ | 8.7 m ≈ | 8.6 m | 9.6 m | 9.3 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 53.4 m ≈ | 91.1 m | 99.0 m | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ | 99.9 m | 98.4 m | 82.1 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 24-quarter history (min 4.8, median 7.5, max 9.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.8 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.7 bn | 6.8 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.2 bn | 5.9 bn | 6.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +1.0% | +17.8% | +19.1% | −5.6% | −3.7% | −3.7% | +2.0% |
| Net income | 21.4 m | 120.0 m | 308.8 m | 671.4 m | 628.0 m | 519.2 m | 418.4 m | 376.8 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +459.8% | +157.2% | +117.4% | −6.5% | −17.3% | −19.4% | −10.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.29 | 1.60 | 3.79 | 7.12 | 7.49 | 6.70 | 5.73 | 5.54 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +451.7% | +136.9% | +87.9% | +5.2% | −10.5% | −14.5% | −3.3% |
| net % | 0.4% | 2.5% | 5.4% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% |
| Free cash flow | 90.6 m | 200.9 m | 970.3 m | 597.5 m | 443.7 m | 328.0 m | 328.5 m | 222.1 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Jan 2026
- Cash
- 330.3 m USD
- Financial debt
- 483.8 m USD
- Net debt
- 153.5 m USD
- Equity
- 2.2 bn USD
- Total assets
- 5.3 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.22x
- Current ratio
- 1.89x
- ROE
- 18.0%
- ROA
- 7.4%
- FCF margin
- 3.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.7 bn | 6.8 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.2 bn | 5.9 bn | 6.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 4.0 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.7 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| SG&A | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 420.4 m | 907.9 m | 846.5 m | 677.9 m | 538.6 m | 512.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 105.5 m | 105.3 m | 106.8 m | 110.9 m | 118.1 m | 122.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 525.9 m ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | 953.3 m ≈ | 788.8 m ≈ | 656.7 m ≈ | 635.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 339.1 m | 859.5 m | 818.3 m | 663.2 m | 538.2 m | 486.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 30.4 m | 188.2 m | 190.3 m | 144.0 m | 119.8 m | 109.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 308.8 m | 671.4 m | 628.0 m | 519.2 m | 418.4 m | 376.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 3.79 | 7.12 | 7.49 | 6.70 | 5.73 | 5.54 | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 81.4 m | 94.3 m | 83.9 m | 77.5 m | 73.0 m | 68.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | — | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.13 | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 377.6 m | 486.0 m | 337.1 m | 347.9 m | 288.9 m | 330.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 17.3 m | 19.7 m | 16.5 m | 19.4 m | 16.8 m | 34.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 990.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.4 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 378.3 m | 345.8 m | 351.4 m | 445.2 m | 525.1 m | 584.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 861.9 m | 861.9 m | 861.9 m | 861.9 m | 861.9 m | 861.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 577.0 m | 577.2 m | 577.7 m | 578.2 m | 579.0 m | 579.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 4.4 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 791.4 m | 737.8 m | 686.5 m | 541.1 m | 612.4 m | 637.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 4.0 m | 3.0 m | 3.0 m | 3.0 m | 3.0 m | 3.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 781.5 m | 683.6 m | 584.5 m | 484.6 m | 482.7 m | 480.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 879.9 m | 960.9 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 3.3 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.1 bn † | 1.5 bn † | 1.6 bn † | 2.0 bn † | 2.0 bn † | 2.2 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.0 bn | 673.3 m | 552.0 m | 535.8 m | 528.1 m | 434.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 41.3 m | 75.8 m | 108.3 m | 207.8 m | 199.6 m | 212.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 970.3 m ≈ | 597.5 m ≈ | 443.7 m ≈ | 328.0 m ≈ | 328.5 m ≈ | 222.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -33.1 m | -76.0 m | -108.8 m | -206.1 m | -186.1 m | -172.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -750.2 m | -488.9 m | -592.1 m | -318.9 m | -401.0 m | -221.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 0 | 0 | 24.6 m | 27.2 m | 31.5 m | 34.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 411.4 m | 489.5 m | 202.8 m | 364.9 m | 199.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 71 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 4.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation81
- Returns100
- Quality83
- Balance sheet94
- Growth0
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 55.51 – 231.75 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDA93.91 – 231.75 (Mid 101.27)3 companies used · median multiple 9.0x · quartiles 8.4x – 20.2xBNED, ELA, SPWH
- Peers: P/E55.51 – 93.35 (Mid 84.92)6 companies used · median multiple 14.2x · quartiles 9.3x – 15.6xBBW, BNED, DKS, ELA, HERE, SIG
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate1.71 – 2.30 (Mid 1.96)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 71/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 20.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 6.4% | 63 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 83.7% | 77 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -1.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -9.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.3x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.7x | 79 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 11.3x | 67 (vs peers) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 6.1x | 81 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 8.0% | 99 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 7.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 10.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet94/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality83/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation81/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-08-01.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 6.1 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 2.0%; net margin 6.4%; ROE 18.6%; net debt/EBITDA 0.3x.
The estimated value range is 74.71–162.55 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: same basis (multiples on one peer group, not independent confirmations)); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 93.10 USD, the price of 67.69 USD leaves a potential of 37.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 27.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 71/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 20.0%
- FCF conversion: 83.7%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.3x
- Current ratio: 1.7x
- EV/EBITDA: 6.1x
- FCF yield: 8.0%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 7.6%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 10.9%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -1.8%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -9.6%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Interest coverage.
Versus the vertical median
Miscellaneous retail (SIC 594x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIGSignet Jewelers Limited | 4.9 bn | 14.8 | 19.9% | 5.2% | +1.6% | +28% / +56% |
| ASOAcademy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | 4.2 bn | 11.3 | 18.6% | 6.4% | +2.0% | +47% / +39% |
| BNEDBarnes & Noble Education, Inc. | 457.9 m | 20.6 | 8.3% | 1.3% | +6.5% | +41% / −88% |
| BBWBuild-A-Bear Workshop Inc | 388.6 m | 7.8 | 32.8% | 10.0% | +6.7% | −41% / +29% |
| ELAEnvela Corporation | 303.8 m | 13.6 | 32.4% | 7.6% | +33.6% | +1% / +167% |
| HEREHere Group Limited | 72.2 m | 7.7 | 9.1% | 10.6% | −76.9% | −70% / −22% |
| PEWGrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc. | 59.9 m | — | -13.7% | -7.0% | +3.6% | −42% / unavailable |
| SPWHSportsman’s Warehouse Holdings, Inc. | 45.4 m | — | -25.8% | -3.9% | +1.0% | −48% / −76% |
| DKSDICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | — | 15.9 | 18.5% | 4.0% | +28.1% | −29% / +13% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ASO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 40.21 Total return -40% · Per year -40% | 71.32 Total return 6% · Per year 6% | 107.75 Total return 59% · Per year 59% |
| 3 years | 34.23 Total return -49% · Per year -20% | 68.76 Total return 2% · Per year 1% | 114.72 Total return 70% · Per year 19% |
| 5 years | 29.14 Total return -56% · Per year -15% | 66.29 Total return -1% · Per year -0% | 122.15 Total return 82% · Per year 13% |
- Exit P/E± 17.19
- Net margin± 12.03
- Annual revenue growth± 10.51
- Annual dilution± 1.01
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Academy Sports + Outdoors is a US full-line sporting goods and outdoor recreation retailer, with about 322 stores at the end of fiscal 2025 and net sales of 6053.4 million USD 1. In fiscal 2026 it grew sales slightly, but comparable sales were negative in the second quarter as demand stayed pressured, especially among lower-income households 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a large store network in the southern US and an assortment that combines national brands with affordable private label brands 1.
- Its loyalty program and omnichannel integration support customer visit frequency and inventory management 13.
- The company has stable relationships with a large number of vendors and purchasing capacity that secures favorable product allocations 1.
Weaknesses
- Sales are geographically concentrated, which makes the company vulnerable to regional economic conditions and weather events 1.
- Dependence on products made abroad exposes the company to tariffs and supply chain disruptions 1.
- Comparable sales were negative in some recent quarters, showing sensitivity of demand to pressure on consumer spending 3.
Opportunities
- Opening new stores in existing and new markets could add growth if the new locations perform well 13.
- Expanding online and omnichannel services could raise sales and customer loyalty 1.
- Share repurchases and dividends show a capital allocation that could support shareholder returns if operating results hold 3.
Threats
- New tariffs and changing trade policy could raise purchasing costs and reduce gross margins 1.
- Lower consumer spending, inflation and costlier credit could reduce sales in the lower-income segment 13.
- Larger competitors and online sellers could exert price pressure and attract customers who compare offers 1.
Risks
- Dependence on discretionary spendinghigh
Sales depend entirely on discretionary spending by US consumers, which could fall during economic downturns and affect results and liquidity 1.
- Tariffs and imported productshigh
A large volume of merchandise comes from outside the US, and tariffs, trade restrictions and forced-labor rules could delay shipments or raise costs 1.
- Information systemsmedium
Interruptions or errors in information systems could disrupt inventory, online sales and payment processing, with effects on financial results 1.
- Indebtednessmedium
The level of debt and debt service costs limit financial flexibility, and debt at variable rates exposes the company to rising interest rates 2.
- Geographic concentrationmedium
Most stores are in the southern US, so a severe weather event or regional crisis could affect a significant share of sales 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If new stores keep performing well and online growth holds, the company could sustain sales and profit growth over the medium term 13.
- Updated fiscal 2026 guidance keeps the sales target and raises the profit target, a sign of management confidence in execution 3.
- Private label brands and an accessible assortment could help protect margins if consumers seek value during economic pressure 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Third-quarter results and the opening of the planned storesQ3 2026
- Trend in comparable sales and gross margin after tariff adjustmentsQ4 2026
- Achievement of updated fiscal 2026 sales and EPS guidance2027
- Effect of tariff policy and purchasing costs on marginsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The company operates as a full-line sporting goods and outdoor recreation retailer in the United States, headquartered in Katy, Texas, with stores concentrated in the southern United States, most of them in Texas 1. Its assortment combines national brands with a portfolio of 19 private label brands across outdoor, sports and recreation, apparel and footwear 1. Its buy-online-pickup-in-store program and ship-from-store capabilities are central to its omnichannel strategy, supported by three distribution centers 1.
Segments
Outdoors
The Outdoors division, covering camping, fishing and hunting, was the largest merchandise category in 2025, representing about 31% of net sales 1. It is a hardgoods division and, according to the company, carries lower gross margins than apparel and footwear 1.
Market context
The US sporting goods and outdoor market is highly competitive, and the company competes with mass merchants, department stores, specialty retailers and online sellers 1. Demand depends on US consumer discretionary spending, which is sensitive to inflation, credit and interest rates 1. The second quarter of fiscal 2026 shows demand remaining under pressure, especially in the lower-income segment 3.
Trends
- Store network expansiontailwind
The company plans to open new stores in 2026 and added locations in recent quarters, which could support sales growth if new stores perform well 13. According to the release, comparable sales of new stores were positive in the mid-single digits, which supports this view 3.
- Tariffs and international trademixed
A significant part of merchandise is made outside the US, and new tariffs and shifting trade policy could raise costs and reduce margins, although the company says it has diversified sourcing and benefited from tariff refunds 13. Tariff refunds had a limited positive effect on earnings in the second quarter 3.
- E-commerce and omnichanneltailwind
Online sales are growing faster than total sales, and pickup-in-store and ship-from-store programs are an advantage if integrated efficiently 13. Investment in the app, loyalty and artificial intelligence, however, requires ongoing spending 1.
- Pressure on consumer spendingheadwind
Spending by lower-income consumers has weakened, and inflation, costlier credit and low confidence could slow comparable sales if the trend continues 13. The company has nevertheless kept its fiscal 2026 sales guidance 3.
Competitive position
Competition comes from mass merchants, general stores with sports divisions, specialty sporting and outdoor chains and online sellers 1. The company's advantage lies in its accessible assortment, private label brands and local store coverage, but larger competitors have greater purchasing scale 1.
- Dick's Sporting GoodsDKS
Specialty sporting and outdoor retailer, cited as a representative of specialty chains in the sector, with a store network and online channels.
- Big 5 Sporting GoodsBGFV
Specialty sporting goods chain focused on regional customers, competing on price and assortment.
- Mass merchants
General retailers selling selected sporting goods at low prices, cited in the company's risk factors as a source of price competition.
- Online sellers
E-commerce platforms offering broad assortments and fast delivery, especially for customers comparing prices.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- AI Fighter Pilots Academy, where Saab trains its AI AgentsEuropean Defence Review · 03 Nov 2026 · RO
- Singapore's Insignia Ventures backs rural Japan for Davos-inspired academyNikkei Asia · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Miltiadis Marinakis STEM Center Dedicated at Massachusetts Maritime AcademyTo Vima International (GR, EN) · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Seraphim launches SpaceTech Academy with $150K investment for early-stage startupsTech.eu · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Martina Bonello, din Malta, a fost desemnată, la Bucureşti, câştigătoarea finalei regionale a competiţiei S.Pellegrino Young Chef Academy, cu preparatul ” Ecouri din Malta: iepure, creveţi şi plante aromatice sălbatice”Ziarul Financiar · 29 Oct 2026 · RO
- Romania commits 500,000 lei to Cristian Mungiu’s Oscar campaign. How the race for Academy votes works - Spotmedia.roSpotMedia.ro · 28 Oct 2026 · RO
- Gaza’s women filmmakers turn pain into cinema as new academy launchesAl Jazeera English · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- Singapore Rail Academy to partner 5 educational institutions to help rail workers gain formal qualificationsCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 24 Oct 2026 · EN
- 'Three red lines' needed against China, Japan defense academy chief saysNikkei Asia · 24 Oct 2026 · EN
- Military academy merger plan delayed amid ongoing deliberations: officialYonhap News (KR, EN) · 23 Oct 2026 · EN
- Star Academy 2026 pe TF1: rezumatul ultimului live și provocările săptămânii - Sortir à ParisSurge — Google News · 19 Oct 2026 · RO
- Former Russian Academy of Sciences library director Oleg Shorin arrested in Moscow on fraud chargesMeduza English (independent RU/exile) · 16 Oct 2026 · EN
- Introducing New York Academy of Medicine New Cohort of Senior ScholarsSurge — GDELT DOC · 15 Oct 2026 · RO
- SK Group opens 2-year AI academy with $2,200 monthly allowanceKorea Times — Business · 12 Oct 2026 · EN
- 3DMAX Academy – TheChampionGG - Scor live - SofascoreSurge — Google News · 10 Oct 2026 · RO
- Intelligent Money Academy, la Suceava. Ce soluții au la dispoziție micile afaceri pentru a trece peste crizăAntena 3 CNN · 09 Oct 2026 · RO
- Intelligent Money Academy. Soluții de ieșire din criză pentru micile afaceriAntena 3 CNN · 09 Oct 2026 · RO
- Swedish Academy to announce winner of Nobel Prize in LiteratureTASS (RU, EN) · 08 Oct 2026 · EN
- Celebrating 20 Years of Suzhou Institute of Nano-Tech and Nano-Bionics (SINANO), Chinese Academy of SciencesACS Nano · 07 Oct 2026 · EN
- Neon studio plans to nominate Yura Borisov for Academy Awards — VarietyTASS (RU, EN) · 06 Oct 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report09 Sept 2026
- Current report09 Sept 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report10 Jun 2026
- Current report09 Jun 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report04 Jun 2026Shareholder vote · Other events
- Current report14 May 2026Material agreement · Termination of a material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report04 May 2026Regulation FD disclosure
- Current report04 May 2026Regulation FD disclosure
- Proxy statement21 Apr 2026
- Current report07 Apr 2026Regulation FD disclosure
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-01-31 · SEC / Academy Sports + Outdoors, Inc. · 17 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-08-01 · SEC / Academy Sports + Outdoors, Inc. · 09 Sept 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Academy Sports + Outdoors, Inc. · 09 Sept 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.