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olivLaw · US equity research

Deere & Company DE

Farm Machinery & Equipment · SIC 3523 · Vertical: Industrial machinery and computer equipment (SIC 352x)

676.50USD+1.60% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Deere & Company, also known as John Deere, is a global maker of agricultural, lawn and turf, construction and forestry equipment, supported by a financial services arm. The company is in the middle of a downturn in the farm equipment cycle, and management says fiscal 2026 could mark the bottom, with third-quarter net sales and revenues of $12.608 billion and full-year net income guidance between $4.75 billion and $5.00 billion.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Deere & Company (DE) stock was 676.50 USD (+1.60% on the day), with market capitalisation 182.4 bn USD, P/E 37.6 on diluted EPS of 18.00 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.96%, beta 0.67, 52-week range 462.86–709.48 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 12.6 bn USD (+4.9% YoY), net income of 1.4 bn USD (+7.0% YoY), diluted EPS 5.10 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
182.4 bn USD
shares as of 02 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
37.6
Diluted EPS TTM 18.00 · TTM to 02 Aug 2026
E/P (TTM)
2.66%
TTM to 02 Aug 2026
Dividend yield
0.96%
DPS 12m 6.48
Beta (2y)
0.67
Volatility (1y) 33%
52-week range
462.86709.48

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
59.0
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
617.67 – 677.47
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.98 · band width 9.2%
SMA 50 / 200
665.46 / 607.18
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
1.67 / -2.78
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−0.8%−1.1%+0.3 pp—
3 months+10.5%−0.5%+11.0 pp—
6 months+14.3%+4.4%+10.0 pp—
Year to date+45.3%+12.3%+33.0 pp—
1 year+44.5%+13.5%+30.9 pp+6.4%
3 years+77.0%+76.4%+0.6 pp−0.7%
5 years+90.5%+63.7%+26.8 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−20.1%
20 Feb 2026 → 26 May 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−34.1%
18 Apr 2022 → 06 Jul 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+13.8%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 02 Aug 2026

Revenue
12.6 bn USD
+4.9% YoY
Net income
1.4 bn USD
+7.0% YoY
Diluted EPS
5.10
+7.4% YoY
net / operating
10.9% / unavailable

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue11.1 bn8.5 bn12.8 bn12.0 bn12.4 bn9.6 bn13.4 bn12.6 bn
Research & development626.0 m526.0 m549.0 m556.0 m680.0 m554.0 m583.0 m567.0 m
SG&A1.2 bn972.0 m1.2 bn1.2 bn1.3 bn972.0 m1.2 bn1.2 bn
Depreciation & amortisation520.0 m549.0 m555.0 m564.0 m561.0 m590.0 m594.0 m603.0 m
Interest expense870.0 m829.0 m784.0 m794.0 m762.0 m719.0 m712.0 m710.0 m
Pre-tax income1.5 bn895.0 m2.3 bn1.6 bn1.4 bn836.0 m2.3 bn1.9 bn
Income tax249.0 m27.0 m539.0 m339.0 m354.0 m196.0 m518.0 m529.0 m
Net income1.2 bn869.0 m1.8 bn1.3 bn1.1 bn656.0 m1.8 bn1.4 bn
Diluted EPS4.55 ≈3.196.644.753.93 ≈2.426.555.10
Operating cash flow5.1 bn-1.1 bn1.7 bn ≈2.9 bn ≈4.0 bn-890.0 m1.9 bn ≈2.2 bn ≈
Capex597.0 m352.0 m203.0 m ≈297.0 m ≈508.0 m256.0 m195.0 m ≈265.0 m ≈
Dividends paid403.0 m403.0 m440.0 m ≈439.0 m ≈438.0 m441.0 m437.0 m ≈438.0 m ≈
Share repurchases780.0 m441.0 m397.0 m ≈298.0 m ≈2.0 m302.0 m198.0 m ≈197.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 98 percentile of its own 43-quarter history (min 10.4, median 18.4, max 39.2; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue37.4 bn39.3 bn35.5 bn44.0 bn52.6 bn61.3 bn51.7 bn45.7 bn
Revenue YoY+25.6%+5.1%−9.5%+23.9%+19.4%+16.5%−15.6%−11.7%
Net income2.4 bn3.3 bn2.8 bn6.0 bn7.1 bn10.2 bn7.1 bn5.0 bn
Net income YoY+9.7%+37.4%−15.4%+116.8%+19.6%+42.6%−30.2%−29.2%
Diluted EPS7.2410.158.6918.9923.2834.6325.6218.50
Diluted EPS YoY+8.4%+40.2%−14.4%+118.5%+22.6%+48.8%−26.0%−27.8%
net %6.3%8.3%7.7%13.5%13.6%16.6%13.7%11.0%
Free cash flow926.0 m2.3 bn6.7 bn6.9 bn3.6 bn7.1 bn7.6 bn6.1 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 02 Nov 2025

Cash
8.3 bn USD
Financial debt
13.8 bn USD
Net debt
5.5 bn USD
Equity
26.0 bn USD
Total assets
106.0 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.53x
Current ratio
unavailable
ROE
20.6%
ROA
4.7%
FCF margin
13.4%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
61.3 bn
2024
51.7 bn
2025
45.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified

Research & development
2023
2.2 bn
2024
2.3 bn
2025
2.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified

SG&A
2023
4.6 bn
2024
4.8 bn
2025
4.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified

Operating income
2023
13.0 bn
2024
9.0 bn
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Dec 2024verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
2.0 bn
2024
2.1 bn
2025
2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified

EBITDA
2023
15.0 bn ≈
2024
11.2 bn ≈
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Dec 2024derived

Interest expense
2023
2.5 bn
2024
3.3 bn
2025
3.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified

Pre-tax income
2023
13.0 bn
2024
9.2 bn
2025
6.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified

Income tax
2023
2.9 bn
2024
2.1 bn
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified

Net income
2023
10.2 bn
2024
7.1 bn
2025
5.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified

Diluted EPS
2023
34.63
2024
25.62
2025
18.50

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
293.6 m
2024
277.1 m
2025
271.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified

Dividend per share
2023
5.05
2024
5.88
2025
6.48

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
7.5 bn
2024
7.3 bn
2025
8.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified

Inventories
2023
8.2 bn
2024
7.1 bn
2025
7.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified

Goodwill
2023
3.9 bn
2024
4.0 bn
2025
4.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
1.1 bn
2024
999.0 m
2025
892.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified

Total assets
2023
104.1 bn
2024
107.3 bn
2025
106.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified

Short-term debt
2023
17.9 bn
2024
13.5 bn
2025
13.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified

Long-term debt
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Dec 2021verified

Total liabilities
2023
82.2 bn
2024
84.4 bn
2025
80.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified

Equity
2023
21.8 bn
2024
22.8 bn
2025
26.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
8.6 bn
2024
9.2 bn
2025
7.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified

Capex
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified

Free cash flow
2023
7.1 bn ≈
2024
7.6 bn ≈
2025
6.1 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-8.7 bn
2024
-6.5 bn
2025
-2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified

Financing cash flow
2023
2.8 bn
2024
-2.7 bn
2025
-4.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified

Dividends paid
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified

Share repurchases
2023
7.2 bn
2024
4.0 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Dec 2025verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-11.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-4.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
5.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Net income growth (YoY)
-29.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-11.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
12.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-27.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-7.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
16.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
-19.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
unavailable
input data missing
Net margin
10.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
FCF margin
12.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026

Returns

ROE
18.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
ROA
4.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (EPS)
36.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
29.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
8.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
unavailable
input data missing

Cash

Operating cash flow
7.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
Capital expenditure
1.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
Free cash flow
6.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
FCF conversion
123.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
182.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Enterprise value
190.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
37.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
37.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
Earnings yield
2.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
P/B
6.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
P/S
3.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
4.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
P/FCF
30.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
FCF yield
3.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Dividend yield
1.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
1.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026

Risk

Altman Z
unavailable
input data missing

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

676.50 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 182.4 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
182.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
37.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
P/B
6.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
18.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Net margin
10.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-11.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
1.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026

Coverage and freshness

29/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 02 Aug 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 02 Aug 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 02 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 27 Aug 2026
verified 2982derived 228

Score by group

58% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
310.39
USD per share
Mid
382.74
USD per share
High
499.04
USD per share
Price: 676.50 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -43.4% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -76.8% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 3 methods used · 3 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 85.15 – 518.28 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)310.39 – 499.04 (Mid 382.74)
    WACC 8.9% · starting FCFF 8.2 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 73%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 19.5%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E395.66 – 518.28 (Mid 460.66)
    4 companies used · median multiple 25.6x · quartiles 22.0x – 28.8x
    AGCO, ALG, LNN, TTC
  • Dividend discount (DDM)85.15 – 114.52 (Mid 97.68)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Industrial machinery and computer equipment (SIC 352x)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality10.2%100 (vs peers)11%
FCF conversion · Quality123.6%100 (on a fixed band)11%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-4.6%0 (on a fixed band)14%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-7.4%0 (on a fixed band)14%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
P/E (TTM) · Valuation37.6x0 (on a fixed band)18%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation3.3%41 (on a fixed band)14%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns1.3%19 (on a fixed band)11%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns29.1%100 (on a fixed band)7%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns52/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation18/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

DEERE & CO (DE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-08-02.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 45.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -11.7%; net margin 10.2%; ROE 18.3%.

The estimated value range is 310.39–499.04 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 382.74 USD, the price of 676.50 USD leaves a potential of -43.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -76.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 10.2%
  • FCF conversion: 123.6%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 29.1%

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -4.6%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -7.4%
  • P/E (TTM): 37.6x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.3%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA.

Versus the vertical median

Industrial machinery and computer equipment (SIC 352x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
37.6x
vertical median 25.6x
above median (+46.9%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 17.2x
P/S
3.8x
vertical median 1.1x
above median (+256.6%)
P/B
6.5x
vertical median 1.9x
above median (+240.9%)
ROE
18.3%
vertical median 6.7%
above median (+173.7%)
Net margin
10.2%
vertical median 4.7%
above median (+115.1%)
EBIT margin
—
vertical median 6.9%
Revenue YoY
-11.7%
vertical median -6.0%
below median
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 1.2x
Dividend yield
1.0%
vertical median 1.2%
below median (−20.5%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
DEDeere & Co182.4 bn37.618.3%10.2%−11.7%+44% / +77%
TTCThe Toro Company10.2 bn28.726.4%7.6%−1.6%+54% / +30%
AGCOAgco Corp7.8 bn29.06.5%2.8%−13.5%+6% / −1%
ALGAlamo Group Inc.1.8 bn22.56.7%4.7%−1.5%−10% / −22%
LNNLindsay Corporation1.1 bn20.510.7%8.8%−6.0%−5% / −8%
ARTWArts Way Manufacturing Co Inc14.6 m—-3.0%-1.6%−6.2%+19% / +36%

1- and 3-year price returns: for DE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
364.92
Total return -45% · Per year -45%
648.25
Total return -3% · Per year -3%
980.68
Total return 46% · Per year 46%
3 years
292.49
Total return -55% · Per year -23%
590.27
Total return -10% · Per year -3%
989.01
Total return 50% · Per year 14%
5 years
234.44
Total return -63% · Per year -18%
537.48
Total return -16% · Per year -4%
997.41
Total return 53% · Per year 9%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 147.57
  • Net margin± 103.30
  • Annual revenue growth± 92.87
  • Annual dilution± 8.68

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Deere & Company, also known as John Deere, is a global maker of agricultural, lawn and turf, construction and forestry equipment, supported by a financial services arm. The company is in the middle of a downturn in the farm equipment cycle, and management says fiscal 2026 could mark the bottom, with third-quarter net sales and revenues of $12.608 billion 3 and full-year net income guidance between $4.75 billion and $5.00 billion 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • A diversified portfolio across four segments, with a significant share of sales in the United States and Canada 1.
  • Advanced technology integration through telematics, automation and digital platforms, supported by lifecycle services 1.
  • An in-house financial services arm that supports sales through customer financing 1.

Weaknesses

  • Heavy dependence on the farm cycle, which directly affects demand for large equipment 1.
  • Sensitivity to tariff costs and imported components, which can reduce profitability 1.
  • Seasonal sales create large swings in cash flow and inventory 1.

Opportunities

  • Growth in construction and roadbuilding markets could offset weakness in agriculture 3.
  • Wider adoption of precision technology could lift service and upgrade revenue 2.
  • Investment in Brazil and other growing regions could open new markets 1.

Threats

  • Trade tariffs and retaliatory measures can affect costs and exports 1.
  • Weak economic conditions and high interest rates could reduce demand and access to funding 1.
  • Right-to-repair and data privacy rules could change the business model 2.

Risks

  • Farm cyclehigh

    A drop in farm incomes could sharply reduce equipment demand and raise receivable write-offs 1.

  • Trade policyhigh

    Tariffs and retaliatory measures could raise costs and reduce exports, and their path remains uncertain 12.

  • Supply chainmedium

    The availability and price of raw materials, components and whole goods could disrupt production 13.

  • Funding costsmedium

    Market conditions could raise funding costs for both customers and the financial services arm 1.

  • Litigation and repair rulesmedium

    A settlement with the FTC and plaintiff states requires repair resources for farmers and independent providers, which could change service terms 2.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If fiscal 2026 does mark the bottom of the farm cycle, a recovery in demand could help, especially if used equipment inventories improve 3.
  • Expected growth in construction and roadbuilding could offset weakness in agriculture, particularly in the U.S. and Canada 3.
  • Tariff recoveries could support margins if the refund process is completed 2.

What would break the thesis

  • If large agriculture demand falls more than expected, revenue could come in below forecasts 3.
  • Tariffs and trade measures could return, which could reduce profitability 12.
  • A weaker forestry market and softness in South America could limit growth 3.

What to watch

  • PPA sales trends in the U.S. and CanadaQ1 2027
  • Completion of the IEEPA tariff refund process2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Deere runs its business through four segments: Production & Precision Agriculture (PPA), Small Agriculture & Turf (SAT), Construction & Forestry (CF) and Financial Services. The first three form the equipment operations, while the financial arm provides financing for customers, including retail notes, leases and extended warranties 1. The company focuses on integrated technology such as telematics, automation and the John Deere Operations Center, aiming to turn machines into intelligent solutions and to build lifecycle services 1.

The strategy rests on three pillars: aligning products with customers' production systems, a technology stack covering hardware, embedded software, connectivity and applications, and lifecycle solutions for aftermarket support across the life of a machine 1. These are grouped under Leap Ambitions, long-term goals toward 2030 that were refined in December 2025 1.

Sales are seasonal, tied to planting and harvest periods, and many machines are sold through early order programs 1. Most sales occur in the U.S. and Canada, but the company also invests abroad, including a research and development center built in Indaiatuba, Brazil in 2024 focused on tropical agriculture 1.

Market context

Demand for farm equipment depends on farm income, commodity prices, input costs, government policies and trade 1. For fiscal 2026, the company expects U.S. and Canada large agriculture demand to fall 15 to 20%, while small agriculture and turf could be flat to up 5% 3.

Trends

  • Downturn in agricultureheadwind

    Lower farm income, volatile prices and high input costs are weighing on demand for large equipment, affecting volumes, sales incentives and receivable write-offs. Management believes 2026 could mark the bottom of the cycle, though this depends on market conditions 23.

  • Tariffs and tariff recoveriesmixed

    Tariffs imposed in 2025 raised costs, and in February 2026 the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated IEEPA tariffs, allowing the company to record significant recoveries. The net effect remains uncertain as trade policies continue to change 12.

  • Technology and service solutionstailwind

    Customers are increasingly adopting telematics, automation and precision technology, which the company links to lifecycle services. Revenue from SaaS products is not yet a significant share of sales 2.

  • Construction and infrastructure investmenttailwind

    Infrastructure, data center, energy projects and rental fleet investment support demand for construction and roadbuilding equipment. Housing weakness remains a risk 3.

Competitive position

The analyzed sources do not explicitly name the company's competitors. The segments compete in farm, turf, construction and forestry equipment, where pricing, technology and dealer networks shape results 1. The company states it operates in highly competitive markets where customer expectations for products and precision technology are changing 3.

  • Competitors not named in the sources

    The sources do not name specific competitors, so no companies can be identified from them.

  • Construction and roadbuilding equipment makers

    The company includes the Wirtgen segment, which operates in the global roadbuilding market, a field with many players 1.

  • Agricultural technology providers

    Integration of precision technology is a differentiating factor the company cites in its competitive setting 2.

  • Equipment rental networks

    The company works with major rental companies to support construction equipment sales 1.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 19 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 02 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

  • Current report02 Nov 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report27 Aug 2026
  • Current report20 Aug 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report15 Jul 2026
    Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report01 Jun 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers
  • Quarterly report28 May 2026
  • Current report21 May 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report01 May 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report16 Mar 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report27 Feb 2026
    Shareholder vote

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-11-02 · SEC / Deere & Company · 18 Dec 2025
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-08-02 · SEC / Deere & Company · 27 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Deere & Company · 20 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.