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olivLaw · US equity research

Equinor ASA EQNR

Petroleum Refining · SIC 2911 · Vertical: Petroleum Refining (SIC 2911)

42.80USD−6.20% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Equinor ASA is an integrated energy company headquartered in Norway that produces oil and gas, trades energy and invests in renewable power. The company operates in more than 20 countries, and its segment structure, from production to trading, explains both its revenue mix and the risks it faces now.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Equinor ASA (EQNR) stock was 42.80 USD (−6.20% on the day), with market capitalisation 107.0 bn USD, P/E 22.1 on diluted EPS of 1.94 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.46%, beta -0.04, 52-week range 22.41–48.82 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
107.0 bn USD
shares as of 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
22.1
Diluted EPS TTM 1.94 · TTM to 31 Dec 2025
E/P (TTM)
4.53%
TTM to 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
3.46%
DPS 12m 1.48
Beta (2y)
-0.04
Volatility (1y) 40%
52-week range
22.4148.82

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
40.8
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
42.36 – 49.48
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.06 · band width 15.5%
SMA 50 / 200
44.18 / 37.88
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.61 / 1.01
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+1.1%−1.1%+2.2 pp—
3 months+12.2%−0.5%+12.7 pp—
6 months+12.5%+4.4%+8.2 pp—
Year to date+81.1%+12.3%+68.8 pp—
1 year+78.6%+13.5%+65.0 pp+46.0%
3 years+29.1%+76.4%−47.3 pp+83.1%
5 years+62.9%+63.7%−0.8 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−26.8%
30 Mar 2026 → 26 Jun 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−47.8%
24 Aug 2022 → 18 Dec 2024
Compound annual growth (5y)
+10.2%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 88 percentile of its own 8-quarter history (min 4.0, median 9.7, max 36.2; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue79.6 bn64.4 bn45.8 bn90.9 bn150.8 bn107.2 bn103.8 bn106.5 bn
Revenue YoY+30.1%−19.1%−28.8%+98.4%+65.9%−28.9%−3.2%+2.6%
Net income7.5 bn1.8 bn-5.5 bn8.6 bn28.7 bn11.9 bn8.8 bn5.0 bn
Net income YoY+64.2%−75.5%−399.0%unavailable+235.7%−58.7%−25.9%−42.7%
Diluted EPS2.270.55-1.692.639.033.933.111.94
Diluted EPS YoY+62.1%−75.8%−407.3%unavailable+243.3%−56.5%−20.9%−37.6%
net %9.5%2.9%-12.0%9.4%19.1%11.1%8.5%4.7%
Free cash flow8.3 bn3.5 bn1.9 bn20.8 bn26.4 bn18.7 bn7.3 bn6.0 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
5.0 bn USD
Financial debt
26.1 bn USD
Net debt
21.1 bn USD
Equity
40.5 bn USD
Total assets
131.7 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.64x
Current ratio
unavailable
ROE
12.2%
ROA
3.8%
FCF margin
5.6%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
107.2 bn
2024
103.8 bn
2025
106.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
48.2 bn
2024
50.0 bn
2025
55.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
59.0 bn ≈
2024
53.7 bn ≈
2025
51.3 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026derived

Research & development
2023
311.0 m
2024
348.0 m
2025
352.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
35.8 bn
2024
30.9 bn
2025
25.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
9.4 bn
2024
9.7 bn
2025
9.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
45.1 bn ≈
2024
40.6 bn ≈
2025
35.2 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026derived

Pre-tax income
2023
37.9 bn
2024
31.0 bn
2025
25.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
26.0 bn
2024
22.2 bn
2025
20.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
11.9 bn
2024
8.8 bn
2025
5.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
3.93
2024
3.11
2025
1.94

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
3.0 bn
2024
2.8 bn
2025
2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
3.60
2024
2.80
2025
1.48

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
8.1 bn
2024
5.9 bn
2025
5.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
3.8 bn
2024
4.0 bn
2025
3.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
61.0 bn
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 21 Mar 2024verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
58.8 bn
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 21 Mar 2024verified

Total assets
2023
143.6 bn
2024
131.1 bn
2025
131.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
9.6 bn
2024
11.1 bn
2025
9.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
2.4 bn
2024
2.2 bn
2025
2.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
22.2 bn
2024
19.4 bn
2025
23.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
35.7 bn
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 21 Mar 2024verified

Total liabilities
2023
95.1 bn
2024
88.8 bn
2025
91.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
48.5 bn
2024
42.4 bn
2025
40.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2023
2.9 bn
2024
2.9 bn
2025
2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
29.3 bn
2024
19.5 bn
2025
20.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
10.6 bn
2024
12.2 bn
2025
14.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
18.7 bn ≈
2024
7.3 bn ≈
2025
6.0 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-12.4 bn
2024
-3.5 bn
2025
-9.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-18.1 bn
2024
-17.7 bn
2025
-11.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
10.9 bn
2024
8.6 bn
2025
4.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
5.6 bn
2024
6.0 bn
2025
5.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
2.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-11.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
18.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-18.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-42.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-44.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-37.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-40.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
-18.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
48.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBITDA margin
33.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBIT margin
23.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net margin
4.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF margin
5.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Returns

ROE
12.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROA
3.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROIC
35.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROCE
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (EPS)
76.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Payout ratio (FCF)
80.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Balance sheet

Net debt
21.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net debt / EBITDA
0.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Debt / equity
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
unavailable
input data missing

Cash

Operating cash flow
20.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Capital expenditure
14.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Free cash flow
6.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF conversion
118.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Cash conversion
56.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
24 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Days payables outstanding
69 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
107.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Enterprise value
128.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Market cap / net income TTM
21.2x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/E (TTM)
22.1x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Earnings yield
4.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
2.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/S
1.0x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
3.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBIT
5.1x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/Sales
1.2x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/FCF
17.9x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
FCF yield
5.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
3.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Shareholder yield (distributions)
10.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Risk

Altman Z
unavailable
input data missing

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 50 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

42.80 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 107.0 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
107.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
22.1x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
2.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
3.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROE
12.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net margin
4.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue growth (YoY)
2.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
3.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 31 Dec 2025
Latest balance sheet date: 31 Dec 2025
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Dec 2025
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 19 Mar 2026
verified 304derived 3

Score by group

  • Valuation63
  • Returns83
  • Quality66
  • Balance sheet25
  • Growth0

Estimated value range

Low
19.45
USD per share
Mid
33.40
USD per share
High
39.09
USD per share
Price: 42.80 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -22.0% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -28.1% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 15.97 – 78.07 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA60.46 – 78.07 (Mid 71.05)
    4 companies used · median multiple 5.6x · quartiles 4.9x – 6.1x
    CVI, DK, MPC, VLO
  • Peers: P/E15.97 – 39.09 (Mid 33.40)
    10 companies used · median multiple 17.2x · quartiles 8.2x – 20.1x
    COP, CVI, CVX, DK, MPC, PBF, PSX, SUNC, VLO, XOM
  • Dividend discount (DDM)19.45 – 26.16 (Mid 22.31)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Petroleum Refining (SIC 2911)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 50/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality35.6%57 (vs peers)12%
Net margin · Quality4.7%47 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality118.5%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-11.0%0 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-40.1%0 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet0.6x25 (vs peers)12%
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
P/E (TTM) · Valuation22.1x20 (vs peers)12%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation3.6x100 (vs peers)12%
FCF yield · Valuation5.6%70 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns10.0%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns80.2%57 (on a fixed band)5%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial25/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality66/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns83/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation63/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

EQUINOR ASA (EQNR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 106.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 2.6%; net margin 4.7%; ROE 12.2%; net debt/EBITDA 0.6x.

The estimated value range is 19.45–39.09 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 33.40 USD, the price of 42.80 USD leaves a potential of -22.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -28.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 50/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 118.5%
  • EV/EBITDA: 3.6x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 10.0%

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -11.0%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -40.1%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 0.6x
  • P/E (TTM): 22.1x
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Interest coverage, Current ratio.

Versus the vertical median

Petroleum Refining (SIC 2911) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 17 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
22.1x
vertical median 17.2x
above median (+28.1%)
EV/EBITDA
3.6x
vertical median 6.0x
below median (−39.5%)
P/S
1.0x
vertical median 0.6x
above median (+57.5%)
P/B
2.6x
vertical median 2.9x
below median (−10.3%)
ROE
12.2%
vertical median 25.2%
below median (−51.7%)
Net margin
4.7%
vertical median 7.0%
below median (−32.1%)
EBIT margin
23.8%
vertical median 6.1%
above median (+287.4%)
Revenue YoY
2.6%
vertical median -4.6%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
0.6x
vertical median 0.2x
above median (+168.0%)
Dividend yield
3.5%
vertical median 1.7%
above median (+109.3%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
XOMExxonMobil Holdings Corporation701.6 bn27.79.8%7.6%−5.0%+46% / +65%
CVXChevron Corp428.7 bn20.812.2%9.6%−6.8%+44% / +51%
COPConocoPhillips164.5 bn18.114.2%14.7%+7.7%+54% / +18%
EQNREquinor Asa107.0 bn22.112.2%4.7%+2.6%+79% / +29%
MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation106.9 bn7.772.6%8.4%−4.4%+103% / +163%
VLOValero Energy Corp101.9 bn8.250.1%8.4%−5.5%+107% / +191%
PSXPhillips 66101.3 bn8.341.1%7.5%−7.5%+90% / +101%
YPFYPF Sociedad Anonima16.4 bn—-7.4%-4.5%−4.4%+13% / +151%
CVICvr Energy, Inc4.3 bn16.327.5%2.7%−5.9%+25% / +35%
IEPIcahn Enterprises L.P.4.0 bn——-9.4%−3.6%−34% / −68%
DKDelek Us Holdings, Inc.4.0 bn18.262.6%1.9%−9.5%+69% / +141%
CLMTCalumet, Inc.3.8 bn——-3.0%−1.2%+126% / +153%
SUNCSunococorp LLC3.4 bn23.8—0.4%+11.1%+26% / unavailable
IMOImperial Oil Limited——25.2%10.9%−8.6%+29% / +126%
PBFPbf Energy Inc.—3.241.1%7.0%−11.4%+111% / +64%
SUSuncor Energy Inc——13.2%11.3%−4.6%+61% / +118%
BPBp PLC——0.1%0.0%−1.1%+26% / +26%
SUNSunoco LP———2.9%+11.1%+15% / +18%

1- and 3-year price returns: for EQNR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
23.79
Total return -42% · Per year -42%
42.27
Total return 2% · Per year 2%
63.97
Total return 54% · Per year 54%
3 years
18.89
Total return -49% · Per year -20%
38.15
Total return -1% · Per year -0%
63.97
Total return 62% · Per year 17%
5 years
15.00
Total return -55% · Per year -15%
34.43
Total return -4% · Per year -1%
63.97
Total return 70% · Per year 11%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 9.54
  • Net margin± 6.68
  • Annual revenue growth± 6.03
  • Annual dilution± 0.56

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 19 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (03 Nov 2026), 6-K (28 Oct 2026), 6-K (27 Oct 2026).

In brief

Equinor ASA is an integrated energy company headquartered in Norway that produces oil and gas, trades energy and invests in renewable power. The company operates in more than 20 countries, and its segment structure, from production to trading, explains both its revenue mix and the risks it faces now.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company holds a strong position in production on the Norwegian Continental Shelf and an integrated trading portfolio 1.
  • The Norwegian State as majority shareholder provides stability and an established regulatory relationship 1.
  • Diversification across segments, from production to trading, reduces reliance on a single product 1.

Weaknesses

  • The REN segment was hit by heavy impairments, showing the vulnerability of new projects 1.
  • Lower liquids prices reduced results across several production segments 1.
  • Transport and operating costs rose in some segments, compressing margins 1.

Opportunities

  • High European gas prices could support trading and production revenues 1.
  • Renewable projects could become a new source of revenue if they are completed successfully 1.
  • Expanding interests in Appalachia could increase US production volumes 1.

Threats

  • Volatile oil and gas prices can quickly affect financial results 1.
  • Regulatory and political changes in Norway and the US may alter operating conditions 1.
  • Environmental and safety risks remain significant for large-scale operations 1.

Risks

  • Price volatilityhigh

    Oil and gas prices can fall or rise quickly, affecting revenues and operating results 1.

  • Impairments in renewableshigh

    Impairments linked to US offshore wind projects reduced the REN segment's result in 2025 1.

  • State influencemedium

    The Norwegian State as shareholder and regulator can influence voting on share issuance and project approvals 1.

  • International regulationmedium

    Operations in more than 20 countries are subject to different regulatory frameworks, including environmental rules 1.

  • Derivative losseslow

    Losses on commodity derivatives weighed on the MMP segment result in 2025 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If gas prices remain high in Europe and production volumes keep growing, group revenues could support results more firmly 1.
  • Diversification across segments and commercial integration could cushion shocks from a single commodity price 1.
  • If renewable projects reach production, they could open a new long-term revenue source 1.

What would break the thesis

  • Lower liquids prices and renewable impairments show that results can be volatile and hard to predict 1.
  • If operating and transport costs keep rising, margins could be squeezed in several segments 1.
  • State influence over investment and regulatory decisions could limit the company's strategic flexibility 1.

What to watch

  • Realised gas prices in Europe and the USQ1 2027
  • Operating result of the REN segment and the trend in impairments2027
  • Production volumes in E&P Norway and E&P USAnext 10-K
  • Result from derivatives and trading in MMP2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 19 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (03 Nov 2026), 6-K (28 Oct 2026), 6-K (27 Oct 2026).

The business

Equinor ASA was incorporated in 1972 and is a public limited company organised under Norwegian law, with its head office in Stavanger 1. The Norwegian State is the majority shareholder, which shapes both voting outcomes and access to licences on the Norwegian Continental Shelf 1. The core activity remains the exploration and production of hydrocarbons, supplemented by marketing and renewable energy projects.

The company organises its activity into several segments: E&P Norway, E&P International, E&P USA, Midstream, Marketing and Processing (MMP) and Renewables (REN) 1. Gas and oil are marketed jointly with the Norwegian State's volumes under an arrangement set out in an owner's instruction 1. As a result, sold volumes can exceed the company's own net production.

In 2025 the MMP segment generated the largest share of group revenues, while E&P Norway remained the main source of operating income despite a lower average liquids price 1. The company has linked its investment decisions to its energy transition objectives, including offshore wind and other renewable projects 1.

Segments

E&P Norway

The E&P Norway segment reported total revenues and other income of 34.392 billion USD in 2025, up 2% 1. Entitlement production rose to 1,410 mboe per day, while the average liquids price fell below the prior year 1. The ramp-up of new fields increased depreciation 1.

MMP

MMP is the segment with the highest revenue, at 104.769 billion USD in 2025 1. Net operating income fell, driven by higher transportation costs and derivative losses, even though revenues increased 1. The segment includes gas, LNG and crude trading.

Market context

The market in which Equinor operates is shaped by oil, gas and power prices, which vary strongly between regions 1. European gas achieved a realised price of 12.20 USD/MMBtu in 2025, while US gas realised 3.07 USD/MMBtu 1. These price gaps directly affect the results of the production and trading segments.

The company describes its market outlook in terms of hydrocarbon supply and demand, but its conclusions rely on external analyst reports and internal estimates that are not independently verified 1. Market developments therefore remain a source of uncertainty for future results.

Trends

  • European gas pricestailwind

    The realised price of gas in Europe rose in 2025, supporting revenues in MMP and E&P Norway 1. If prices stay elevated, gas results could continue to support the group.

  • Lower liquids pricesheadwind

    The average liquids price declined in E&P Norway, E&P International and E&P USA in 2025 1. This trend could reduce production revenues if it persists.

  • Investment in renewablesmixed

    Investment in offshore wind and other renewable projects increased, but was affected by impairments 1. The outcome of these investments remains uncertain.

  • Regulation and energy securitymixed

    The Norwegian regulatory framework and the State's role as shareholder and regulator can influence licence access and project approvals 1. Political change could alter operating conditions.

Competitive position

The source material indicates that the company's competitive position is assessed using investment analyst reports and independent market studies, without a detailed list of competitors 1. The company operates in an environment where other oil and gas companies compete for licences and markets.

Market share is estimated from the public financial results of market players, so statements about position are partly approximate 1. Differentiation rests on cost, production projects and integrated commercial activity.

  • European integrated oil companies

    Compete for licences and for gas and LNG markets, a context referenced in the oil and gas market discussion.

  • US independent producers

    Compete in onshore production, including the Appalachian Basin where E&P USA has expanded its interests.

  • Offshore wind developers

    Compete on US offshore wind projects, where REN recorded impairments.

  • Energy and gas traders

    Compete in gas, LNG and crude trading, a central activity for MMP.

News & filings

In the press

Sources

  1. [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Equinor ASA · 19 Mar 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.