olivLaw · US equity research
Erie Indemnity Company ERIE
Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service · SIC 6411
Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) is an attorney-in-fact that manages Erie Insurance Exchange, its sole customer, and earns its revenue from management fees calculated on premiums written. In fiscal 2025 the direct and affiliated assumed premiums written by the Exchange rose 8.9% to 13.0 billion USD, and management fee revenue depends directly on this growth and on a fee rate set at 25%.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) stock was 279.96 USD (+3.82% on the day), with beta 0.18, 52-week range 207.24–299.78 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.1 bn USD (+0.3% YoY), net income of 182.0 m USD (−0.5% YoY).
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 72.6
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 215.74 – 278.26
- above the upper band · %B 1.03 · band width 25.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 242.23 / 244.29
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 9.45 / 5.63
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +26.4% | −1.1% | +27.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | +11.6% | −0.5% | +12.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +31.1% | +4.4% | +26.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −2.3% | +12.3% | −14.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | −3.3% | +13.5% | −16.8 pp | — |
| 3 years | +0.6% | +76.4% | −75.8 pp | — |
| 5 years | +24.8% | +63.7% | −38.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 924.1 m | 989.4 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 951.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn |
| Operating income | 167.3 m | 151.4 m | 199.2 m | 208.9 m | 157.7 m | 166.8 m | 204.1 m | 207.4 m |
| Pre-tax income | 191.8 m | 174.7 m | 220.7 m | 232.8 m | 82.3 m | 190.3 m | 228.1 m | 232.8 m |
| Income tax | 39.8 m | 36.3 m | 46.1 m | 49.9 m | 19.0 m | 39.9 m | 47.8 m | 50.8 m |
| Net income | 152.0 m | 138.4 m | 174.7 m | 182.9 m | 63.4 m | 150.5 m | 180.3 m | 182.0 m |
| Operating cash flow | 193.5 m | 118.1 m | 177.6 m ≈ | 219.4 m ≈ | 171.6 m | 91.9 m | 214.9 m ≈ | 213.4 m ≈ |
| Capex | 46.6 m | 29.7 m | 20.3 m ≈ | 35.0 m ≈ | 30.8 m | 37.4 m | 41.5 m ≈ | 28.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 59.4 m | 63.6 m | 63.6 m ≈ | 63.6 m ≈ | 63.6 m | 68.1 m | 68.1 m ≈ | 68.1 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
EPS unavailable in the issuer's structured filings (e.g. a partnership reports per unit, not per share).
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +40.8% | +4.0% | +2.4% | +3.8% | +7.8% | +15.1% | +16.1% | +7.2% |
| Net income | 288.2 m | 316.8 m | 293.3 m | 297.9 m | 298.6 m | 446.1 m | 600.3 m | 559.3 m |
| Net income YoY | +46.3% | +9.9% | −7.4% | +1.6% | +0.2% | +49.4% | +34.6% | −6.8% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 12.1% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 13.6% | 15.8% | 13.8% |
| Free cash flow | 207.3 m | 262.5 m | 287.1 m | 254.0 m | 298.9 m | 288.6 m | 486.4 m | 571.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 345.9 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 2.3 bn USD
- Total assets
- 3.4 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.27x
- ROE
- 26.2%
- ROA
- 17.9%
- FCF margin
- 14.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 338.2 m | 318.1 m | 376.2 m | 520.3 m | 676.5 m | 717.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 21.2 m | 37.2 m | 45.9 m | 47.4 m | 56.5 m | 69.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 359.4 m ≈ | 355.3 m ≈ | 422.1 m ≈ | 567.7 m ≈ | 733.0 m ≈ | 786.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 731.0 k | 4.1 m | 2.0 m | 0 | 0 | — | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 368.5 m | 376.4 m | 376.5 m | 561.9 m | 757.3 m | 710.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 75.2 m | 78.5 m | 77.9 m | 115.9 m | 157.0 m | 151.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 293.3 m | 297.9 m | 298.6 m | 446.1 m | 600.3 m | 559.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 161.2 m | 183.7 m | 142.1 m | 144.1 m | 298.4 m | 345.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 494.6 m | 479.1 m | 524.9 m | 625.3 m | 707.1 m | 735.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 732.3 m | 763.7 m | 778.8 m | 930.2 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 150.7 m | 138.3 m | 165.9 m | 175.6 m | 190.0 m | 200.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 2.0 m | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Mar 2023verified |
| Long-term debt | 93.8 m | 91.7 m | 0 | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 01 Mar 2023verified |
| Current liabilities | 627.7 m | 630.9 m | 665.1 m | 709.0 m | 802.5 m | 945.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 929.1 m | 899.6 m | 791.0 m | 809.1 m | 901.4 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.2 bn † | 1.3 bn † | 1.4 bn † | 1.7 bn † | 2.0 bn † | 2.3 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 342.6 m | 402.8 m | 366.2 m | 381.2 m | 611.2 m | 686.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 55.5 m | 148.8 m | 67.2 m | 92.6 m | 124.8 m | 115.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 287.1 m ≈ | 254.0 m ≈ | 298.9 m ≈ | 288.6 m ≈ | 486.4 m ≈ | 571.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -243.2 m | -185.5 m | -106.9 m | -157.6 m | -226.9 m | -439.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -274.9 m | -194.8 m | -300.8 m | -221.7 m | -230.0 m | -199.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 272.9 m | 192.8 m | 206.8 m | 221.7 m | 237.5 m | 254.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 29.2% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
29% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · input data missing
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 29.2% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 14.0% | 93 (on a fixed band) | 21% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 96.2% | 95 (on a fixed band) | 21% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 12.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 29% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 42 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 48.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial42/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality94/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ERIE INDEMNITY COMPANY (ERIE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 7.2%; net margin 14.0%; ROE 23.7%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 29.2% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 14.0%
- FCF conversion: 96.2%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 12.7%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 48.4%
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Not enough comparable companies with data for an average.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).
In brief
Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) is an attorney-in-fact that manages Erie Insurance Exchange, its sole customer, and earns its revenue from management fees calculated on premiums written. In fiscal 2025 the direct and affiliated assumed premiums written by the Exchange rose 8.9% to 13.0 billion USD 1, and management fee revenue depends directly on this growth and on a fee rate set at 25% 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The administration model, built on one client and fees set by the Board, gives a predictable revenue stream linked to premium growth 1.
- The Exchange holds an A (Excellent) rating from AM Best and a broad base of policies across several states 3.
- Costs are shared through centralized services, which allows scale economies for the agency network 1.
Weaknesses
- Revenue depends almost entirely on one client, the Exchange, which creates a concentration of risk 1.
- Revenue is sensitive to the fee rate, which the Board could reduce if financial conditions change 1.
- The company experienced an information security incident and is pursuing recovery of part of the lost income through its cyber insurance 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Dependence on the Exchangehigh
The company's only customer is the Exchange, so any drop in premiums or financial strength would directly reduce fee revenue 1.
- Reduction of the fee ratehigh
The Board can change the fee rate, which cannot exceed 25%, and a reduction could significantly lower profit 1.
- Catastrophe eventsmedium
Natural disasters or geographic concentration of policies can generate high claims volumes and strain processing services 1.
- Cyber and operational riskmedium
The information security incident in 2025 shows system vulnerability, and future attacks could have similar consequences 1.
- Investment and regulatory risklow
The Exchange's portfolio is exposed to interest rate, credit and market risk, and regulatory changes could affect its capital 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Premium growth of 8.9% in 2025, combined with a fixed 25% fee, could keep lifting management fee revenue 1.
- First-half 2026 results show higher fee revenue and operating income 3.
- The Exchange's A (Excellent) rating and its base of nearly seven million policies support the company's competitive position 3.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Growth of the Exchange's direct and affiliated assumed premiums and the pace of commission growthQ3 2026
- Board decision on the management fee rate for the following yearDecember 2026
- The Exchange's AM Best rating and any changes to it2027
- Impact of catastrophe losses and inflation on reserves, as disclosed in the next annual reportnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).
The business
Erie Indemnity is a Pennsylvania business corporation, incorporated in 1925, that acts as attorney-in-fact for the subscribers of the Erie Insurance Exchange, a reciprocal insurer writing property and casualty coverage 1. The company performs policy issuance and renewal services and administrative services, namely claims handling, life insurance management and investment management, for the Exchange and its subsidiaries 1. Because the Exchange has no employees or officers, Indemnity is the only entity that delivers these services under its contracts 1.
Its main income comes from a management fee of up to 25% of the direct and affiliated assumed premiums written by the Exchange, which the Board sets at least annually 1. Management fee revenue for administrative services rose to 74.1 million USD in fiscal 2025 1. Reimbursements for administrative services are settled at cost and presented gross, with no effect on operating income 1.
Results for the second quarter of 2026 continue the trend: management fee revenue for policy issuance and renewal rose 4.7%, and net income was 180.3 million USD, or 3.45 USD per diluted share 3. The company has nearly seven million policies in force across 12 states and the District of Columbia, and the Exchange is rated A (Excellent) by AM Best 3.
Segments
Policy issuance and renewal services
This is the company's main revenue driver, tied to the management fee on premiums written. Agent compensation accounts for about 71% of policy issuance and renewal expenses in 2025, and underwriting about 8% 1. The cost of these services rose 8.7% to 2.5 billion USD in 2025, driven by higher commissions and premium growth 1.
Investment income
Investment income is a secondary source, coming from the fixed income and equity portfolios. In the first half of 2026 investment income before taxes was 44.7 million USD, against 39.1 million USD a year earlier 3. Net realized and unrealized losses reached 0.2 million USD in the first half of 2026 3.
Market context
The US property and casualty insurance market is highly competitive, with pressure from large national companies, regional insurers and direct-to-consumer carriers 1. The Exchange focuses on personal auto and homeowners, and personal lines made up 71% of 2025 written premiums 1. Public sources rank Erie as the 16th largest US property and casualty insurer by net premiums written 3.
Premium growth depends on economic conditions and on the rates charged, which take about 12 months to be fully recognized for annual policies 1. Management fee revenue could be hit if inflation, unemployment or recession reduce demand or lead customers to cancel policies 1.
Trends
- Growth in written premiumstailwind
Direct and affiliated assumed premiums of the Exchange rose 8.9% in 2025, and the fixed 25% fee applies directly to that base 1. If this growth continues, management fee revenue could rise in a similar way.
- Claims cost inflationheadwind
Medical, building material and auto repair cost inflation, as well as social inflation, can affect loss reserves and future rates 1. These pressures could force the Exchange to adjust prices, which could weaken demand.
- Digital distribution shiftmixed
Consumers are moving toward digital channels, and the independent agency system could change if competitors offer faster service 1. The effect is mixed: it could lower costs, but it could also strain agency relationships.
- Catastrophe losses and weatherheadwind
Severe weather and catastrophic losses can increase claims volumes and test the capacity to handle requests 1. If such events cluster in one concentrated area, service to customers could come under pressure.
Competitive position
Erie Indemnity does not compete directly with other entities for services to the Exchange, because subscribers appoint it to perform those functions 1. Competition instead sits at the level of the insurers the Exchange faces, where premiums are determined by price, service, brand recognition and financial strength 1.
The Exchange competes within its independent agencies, which also sell competitors' products, so the agency relationship is essential 1. Pressure is especially strong in auto and homeowners, where large national insurers with their own agent networks are active 1.
- Large national insurers with employed or captive agents
Large national companies with employed or captive agent networks that compete intensely in auto and homeowners lines 1.
- Regional insurers
Smaller insurers that compete in local markets and in personal lines 1.
- Companies selling directly to consumers
Companies that distribute personal lines products directly, without intermediaries, and can shift customer expectations 1.
- Other reciprocal insurance exchanges
A limited number of companies provide services under a reciprocal exchange structure, but Indemnity does not treat them as direct competitors 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Erie Indemnity Stock: Is ERIE Underperforming the Financial Services Sector?Yahoo Finance — News · 21 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 21 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 03 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report03 Nov 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
- Current report29 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Jul 2026
- Current report30 Jul 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report23 Apr 2026
- Current report23 Apr 2026Results of operations · Shareholder vote · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report23 Feb 2026
- Current report23 Feb 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Erie Indemnity Company · 23 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Erie Indemnity Company · 30 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Erie Indemnity Company · 30 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.