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olivLaw · US equity research

IT Tech Packaging, Inc. ITP

Converted Paper & Paperboard Prods (No Contaners/Boxes) · SIC 2670 · Vertical: Paper and allied products (SIC 267x)

0.12USD+0.83% · 1 dayClose 03 Nov 2026

IT Tech Packaging is a Nevada holding company that produces and distributes corrugating medium paper through its variable interest entity in Hebei, China. The company remained loss-making and revenue fell in 2024, though third quarter 2025 showed a slight sales recovery, while the VIE structure remains a regulatory risk to watch.

At the close of 03 Nov 2026, IT Tech Packaging, Inc. (ITP) stock was 0.12 USD (+0.83% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.1 m USD, beta 0.45, 52-week range 0.12–0.26 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2025): revenue of 25.6 m USD (+2.1% YoY), net income of -1.4 m USD, diluted EPS -0.11 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
2.1 m USD
shares as of 13 Nov 2025
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -1.02 · TTM to 30 Sept 2025
E/P (TTM)
-844.49%
TTM to 30 Sept 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.45
Volatility (1y) 103%
52-week range
0.120.26

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
35.6
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
0.11 – 0.16
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.23 · band width 33.9%
SMA 50 / 200
0.16 / 0.20
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.01 / -0.01
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−13.6%−2.0%−11.6 pp—
3 months−32.8%−2.2%−30.6 pp—
6 months−36.3%+4.3%−40.6 pp—
Year to date−45.0%+10.6%−55.6 pp—
1 year−49.6%+10.5%−60.0 pp−4.3%
3 years−61.0%+73.7%−134.6 pp−15.6%
5 years−97.3%+61.7%−159.0 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−53.8%
06 Nov 2025 → 26 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−97.6%
05 May 2022 → 26 Oct 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−51.5%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2025 · 30 Sept 2025

Revenue
25.6 m USD
+2.1% YoY
Net income
-1.4 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.11
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-5.7% / -3.9%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '23Q1 '24Q2 '24Q3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25
Revenue21.0 m6.9 m26.2 m25.1 m17.6 m10.9 m24.8 m25.6 m
Cost of revenue20.7 m6.5 m23.0 m23.2 m16.5 m10.8 m23.5 m23.6 m
Gross profit250.2 k399.1 k3.3 m1.9 m1.1 m84.1 k1.3 m2.0 m
SG&A2.9 m3.9 m2.7 m3.4 m4.8 m3.5 m3.0 m3.0 m
Operating income-3.8 m-3.5 m547.8 k-1.5 m-3.8 m-3.4 m-1.8 m-992.6 k
Depreciation & amortisation3.7 m3.5 m3.4 m3.5 m3.9 m3.5 m3.5 m ≈3.6 m ≈
Interest expense216.9 k210.3 k211.6 k171.4 k169.1 k132.8 k144.0 k150.7 k
Pre-tax income-4.0 m-3.7 m339.0 k-1.6 m-4.0 m-3.5 m-1.9 m-1.1 m
Income tax-1.1 k36.8 k416.8 k345.7 k79.9 k—46.8 k306.4 k
Net income-4.0 m-3.7 m-77.7 k-2.0 m-4.0 m-3.5 m-2.0 m-1.4 m
Diluted EPS-0.40 ≈-0.37-0.01-0.20-0.40 ≈-0.35-0.16-0.11
Operating cash flow5.4 m624.4 k721.9 k ≈1.5 m ≈3.5 m-2.5 m1.4 m ≈1.5 m ≈
Capex13.1 m9.0 k53.6 k ≈252.5 k ≈14.5 k8.4 k21.5 k ≈81 ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20172018201920202021202220232024
Revenue117.0 m86.7 m117.6 m100.9 m160.9 m100.4 m86.5 m75.8 m
Revenue YoY−13.2%−25.9%+35.6%−14.2%+59.4%−37.6%−13.8%−12.4%
Net income1.7 m-10.5 m2.2 m-5.6 m905.5 k-16.6 m-9.9 m-9.8 m
Net income YoY−77.3%−735.4%unavailable−350.0%unavailable−1,930.0%unavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS0.08-0.490.10-0.210.10-1.66-0.99-0.98
Diluted EPS YoY−76.5%−712.5%unavailable−307.9%unavailable−1,760.0%unavailableunavailable
net %1.4%-12.2%1.9%-5.5%0.6%-16.5%-11.5%-13.0%
Free cash flow8.8 m7.0 m1.1 m-5.0 m-27.5 m6.2 m-9.4 m6.0 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024

Cash
7.0 m USD
Financial debt
5.6 m USD
Net debt
-1.4 m USD
Equity
156.1 m USD
Total assets
177.5 m USD
Debt / equity
0.04x
Current ratio
1.41x
ROE
-6.1%
ROA
-5.3%
FCF margin
7.9%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2022
100.4 m
2023
86.5 m
2024
75.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Cost of revenue
2022
95.6 m
2023
85.5 m
2024
69.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Gross profit
2022
4.8 m
2023
999.9 k
2024
6.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Research & development
2022
145.5 k
2023
90.8 k
2024
99.6 k

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

SG&A
2022
10.1 m
2023
9.1 m
2024
14.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Operating income
2022
-5.3 m
2023
-9.6 m
2024
-8.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2022
14.8 m
2023
14.2 m
2024
14.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

EBITDA
2022
9.5 m ≈
2023
4.7 m ≈
2024
6.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025derived

Interest expense
2022
1.0 m
2023
984.5 k
2024
762.4 k

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Pre-tax income
2022
-4.9 m
2023
-9.6 m
2024
-9.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Income tax
2022
11.7 m
2023
347.0 k
2024
879.2 k

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Net income
2022
-16.6 m
2023
-9.9 m
2024
-9.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Diluted EPS
2022
-1.66
2023
-0.99
2024
-0.98

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2022
10.0 m
2023
10.1 m
2024
10.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2022
9.5 m
2023
4.4 m
2024
7.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Receivables
2022
—
2023
575.5 k
2024
287.6 k

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Inventories
2022
2.9 m
2023
3.6 m
2024
2.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Current assets
2022
47.2 m
2023
28.4 m
2024
28.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2022
151.6 m
2023
164.0 m
2024
146.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Total assets
2022
204.4 m
2023
194.7 m
2024
177.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Accounts payable
2022
5.0 k
2023
5.0 k
2024
1

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Short-term debt
2022
5.6 m
2023
423.6 k
2024
4.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Long-term debt
2022
4.2 m
2023
4.5 m
2024
1.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Current liabilities
2022
17.6 m
2023
21.4 m
2024
20.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Total liabilities
2022
23.1 m
2023
26.4 m
2024
21.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Equity
2022
181.3 m †
2023
168.3 m †
2024
156.1 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2022
10.7 m
2023
12.9 m
2024
6.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Capex
2022
4.5 m
2023
22.3 m
2024
329.6 k

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Free cash flow
2022
6.2 m ≈
2023
-9.4 m ≈
2024
6.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025derived

Investing cash flow
2022
-10.9 m
2023
-22.2 m
2024
-329.6 k

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Financing cash flow
2022
-879.6 k
2023
4.4 m
2024
-3.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Apr 2025verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-12.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-22.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2024
Revenue CAGR 5Y
-8.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2019 → FY 2024
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
5.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025
EBITDA margin
5.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025
EBIT margin
-12.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025
Net margin
-13.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025
FCF margin
4.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025

Returns

ROE
-6.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2025
ROA
-6.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2025
ROIC
-5.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2025
ROCE
-6.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2025
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
702.3 k USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2025
Net debt / EBITDA
0.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2025
Debt / equity
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2025
Interest coverage
-16.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2025
Quick ratio
1.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2025
Cash ratio
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2025

Cash

Operating cash flow
3.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025
Capital expenditure
44.4 k USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025
Free cash flow
3.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
83.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
9 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2025
Days inventory outstanding
24 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2025
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
2.1 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2025
Enterprise value
2.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2025
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-844.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025
P/B
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2025
P/S
0.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2025
EV/EBITDA
0.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2025
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
0.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2025
P/FCF
0.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2025
FCF yield
185.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 53 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

0.12 USD

03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 2.1 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
2.1 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2025
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2025
EV/EBITDA
0.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2025
ROE
-6.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2025
Net margin
-13.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2025
Revenue growth (YoY)
-12.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing

Coverage and freshness

31/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2024
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2025
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2025
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 13 Nov 2025
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 13 Nov 2025
verified 2276derived 163

Score by group

  • Quality8
  • Growth0
  • Valuation100
  • Balance sheet69

Estimated value range

Low
4.60
USD per share
Mid
6.59
USD per share
High
11.93
USD per share
Price: 0.12 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 5,344.3% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 98.2% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 4.60 – 11.93 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)4.60 – 11.93 (Mid 6.59)
    WACC 5.8% · starting FCFF 4.3 m USD · terminal value share of EV 85%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Paper and allied products (SIC 267x)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 53/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality-5.3%0 (on a fixed band)16%
Net margin · Quality-13.9%20 (vs peers)10%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-22.2%0 (on a fixed band)13%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet0.2x100 (on a fixed band)16%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-16.6x0 (on a fixed band)10%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.9x93 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuation0.6x100 (on a fixed band)16%
FCF yield · Valuation185.7%100 (on a fixed band)13%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet69/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality8/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

IT TECH PACKAGING, INC. (ITP). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2025-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 75.8 m USD in 2024; YoY growth -12.4%; net margin -13.9%; ROE -6.9%; net debt/EBITDA 0.2x.

The estimated value range is 4.60–11.93 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 6.59 USD, the price of 0.12 USD leaves a potential of 5,344.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 98.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 53/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net debt / EBITDA: 0.2x
  • Current ratio: 1.9x
  • EV/EBITDA: 0.6x
  • FCF yield: 185.7%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: -5.3%
  • Net margin: -13.9%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -22.2%
  • Interest coverage: -16.6x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM), Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Paper and allied products (SIC 267x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 17.8x
EV/EBITDA
0.6x
vertical median —
P/S
0.0x
vertical median 1.5x
below median (−98.3%)
P/B
0.0x
vertical median 5.9x
below median (−99.8%)
ROE
-6.9%
vertical median 15.0%
below median (−146.3%)
Net margin
-13.9%
vertical median 7.6%
below median (−283.4%)
EBIT margin
-12.6%
vertical median -1.7%
below median
Revenue YoY
-12.4%
vertical median 0.7%
below median (−1,858.5%)
Net debt/EBITDA
0.2x
vertical median —
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 3.8%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
KMBKimberly-Clark Corporation34.7 bn17.8129.4%11.8%−2.1%−4% / −16%
AVYAvery Dennison Corporation14.0 bn20.130.8%7.6%+1.1%+8% / −5%
REYNReynolds Consumer Products Inc.5.1 bn15.415.0%8.7%+0.7%−4% / −8%
DSYBig Tree Cloud Holdings Limited287.9 m—-232.8%-551.3%−49.3%−63% / −98%
PACKRanpak Holdings Corp.255.6 m—-6.6%-8.3%+7.1%−40% / −27%
ITPIt Tech Packaging, Inc.2.1 m—-6.9%-13.9%−12.4%−50% / −61%

1- and 3-year price returns: for ITP from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    IT Tech Packaging is a Nevada holding company that produces and distributes corrugating medium paper through its variable interest entity in Hebei, China. The company remained loss-making and revenue fell in 2024, though third quarter 2025 showed a slight sales recovery, 12 while the VIE structure remains a regulatory risk to watch.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The company has a dedicated production line with large designed capacity and improved its gross margin in 2024 thanks to lower recycled paper input costs.
    • The group structure is consolidated for accounting, and its customer base in northern China gives a concentrated and known market.
    • Management has long industry experience and strong local relationships, an important asset for operating in a regulated environment.

    Weaknesses

    • The company reported net losses in the periods analysed and depends on one main product grade.
    • Dependence on a small number of energy and raw material suppliers means supply interruptions could have a major effect.
    • Investors hold no stake in the operating entities, and the contractual agreements have not been tested in court.

    Opportunities

    • Resuming offset and tissue paper production, expected at the end of 2025, could diversify revenue.
    • Higher sales volumes in the third quarter of 2025 suggest demand for CMP could keep improving.
    • Modernising the photo paper line could allow more competitive products.

    Threats

    • Government restrictions on natural gas could temporarily halt production.
    • Chinese rules on overseas listings and VIE structures could change operations or the value of the shares.
    • Strong competition and volatile paper prices could squeeze margins again.

    Risks

    • Structural VIE riskhigh

      The company holds no equity in its China operating entity, and authorities could disallow the structure, which would fundamentally change the business.

    • Persistent net losseshigh

      The company reported a net loss in fiscal 2024, and a continuation of this trend could limit its ability to finance itself.

    • Natural gas supply interruptionsmedium

      Government restrictions on natural gas supply could stop production for extended periods.

    • Supplier dependencemedium

      A few suppliers account for nearly all purchases of raw materials and gas, so losing one contract could be hard to offset.

    • CMP price volatilitylow

      Lower selling prices could reduce revenue even if volumes grow.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If sales volumes keep rising and raw material costs stay low, gross margins could remain improved compared with earlier years.
    • Resuming offset and tissue paper production could add a new source of revenue.
    • A reduction in net losses could show that the cost structure has stabilised.

    What would break the thesis

    • Chinese authorities could challenge the VIE structure, which could leave the investment without value.
    • Revenue fell in 2024 and strong competition could prevent a sustained recovery.
    • Natural gas restrictions could interrupt production just as the company tries to recover its position.

    What to watch

    • Fourth quarter 2025 results and the resumption of offset paper productionQ4 2025
    • Trend in the average CMP selling price and gross marginQ1 2026
    • Renewal of the pollution discharge permit for the PM6 line2025
    • New Chinese rules on VIE structures and overseas listingsnext 10-K

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    IT Tech Packaging, Inc. has no operations of its own; it is a Nevada holding company whose business is conducted through subsidiaries and through Hebei Baoding Dongfang Paper Milling Company Limited, a variable interest entity (VIE) consolidated for accounting but in which the company holds no equity. 1 Production consists mainly of corrugating medium paper (CMP), and the company also produced offset printing paper and tissue paper products, activities suspended in 2024. 12

    The contractual structure giving the company control of the VIE includes a technical services agreement, a call option agreement, a share pledge agreement and a proxy agreement, under which the Baoding operating entity receives substantially all economic benefits. 1 Investors hold shares only in the Nevada company, not in the Chinese operating entities, and these agreements have not been tested in a court of law. 1

    The company was incorporated in 2005 as Carlateral, Inc. and changed its name to IT Tech Packaging in 2018, when its shares began trading under the symbol ITP on NYSE American. 1 Per 2025 quarterly data, production of offset and tissue paper was expected to resume at the end of the year. 2

    Segments

    Corrugating medium paper (CMP)

    CMP accounts for almost all revenue, particularly regular and light-weight grades produced on lines PM6 and PM1. In fiscal 2024 CMP sales were 75.7 million USD from 220,552 tonnes, and in the third quarter of 2025 the average price of regular grade was 340 USD per tonne. 12

    Offset printing and tissue paper products

    Sales of offset printing paper and tissue paper products were nil in 2024 and in the third quarter of 2025, after production was suspended and was expected to resume at the end of 2025. 12

    Market context

    The company operates in a Chinese sector with strong competition, where established players have greater experience, and prices and volumes depend on demand for recycled paper and the cost of energy. In 2024 the average selling price of CMP fell compared with 2023, while raw material costs fell more, which improved the gross margin. 1

    Energy costs remain sensitive: natural gas accounted for 13.6% of sales in 2024, and the government can periodically restrict gas supply to the paper industry, which could affect production. 1

    Trends

    • Lower CMP selling pricesmixed

      The average price of CMP fell in 2024 and rose slightly in the third quarter of 2025, suggesting price pressure that could ease if demand improves. 12

    • Recycled paper input coststailwind

      The purchase cost of recycled paper fell in 2024, supporting margins, but the price of this raw material is volatile and could rise again if the market shifts. 1

    • Natural gas supply restrictionsheadwind

      The government may limit natural gas supply to the paper industry during periods of high household demand, which could halt production. 1

    • Regulation of VIE structures in Chinaheadwind

      Chinese authorities have extended oversight of companies listed abroad through VIE structures, and uncertainty over how these rules are applied could affect the company. 1

    Competitive position

    The company says it operates in a highly developed market where competitors have greater experience and longer history, and these competitors could offer new products, lower prices or more efficient technologies. 1

    The analysed sources do not identify US-listed competitors; if the company cannot hold its price position, losing market share could reduce revenue. 1

    • Chinese corrugating medium paper producers

      Direct competitors in Hebei and northern China, referred to generically in the annual report, with greater industry experience.

    • Recycled paper and raw material suppliers

      Suppliers of recycled paper and gas influence costs and can change supply conditions.

    • Producers of alternative packaging materials

      Companies making other paper or packaging types could gain share at the expense of CMP.

    • New entrants to the corrugating paper market

      New capacity investment could intensify price pressure on the company.

    News & filings

    In the press

    No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 · SEC / IT Tech Packaging, Inc. · 11 Apr 2025
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2025-09-30 · SEC / IT Tech Packaging, Inc. · 13 Nov 2025
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / IT Tech Packaging, Inc. · 15 Nov 2024

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.