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olivLaw · US equity research

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. KTOS

Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts · SIC 3760 · Vertical: Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts (SIC 3760)

35.96USD−12.27% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Kratos is a defense and national security technology company that develops unmanned systems, missiles, jet engines and microwave electronics, largely funded by its own investments. Its relevance grows as global weapons recapitalization continues, and in the second quarter of 2026 revenue reached 458.8 million USD.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) stock was 35.96 USD (−12.27% on the day), with market capitalisation 6.8 bn USD, P/E 206.8 on diluted EPS of 0.17 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.43, 52-week range 35.96–130.72 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 458.8 m USD (+30.5% YoY), net income of 4.4 m USD (+51.7% YoY), diluted EPS 0.02 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
6.8 bn USD
shares as of 31 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
206.8
Diluted EPS TTM 0.17 · TTM to 28 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
0.48%
TTM to 28 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.43
Volatility (1y) 71%
52-week range
35.96130.72

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
33.3
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
36.96 – 43.57
below the lower band · %B -0.15 · band width 16.4%
SMA 50 / 200
44.24 / 62.84
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-1.34 / -1.48
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−14.4%−1.1%−13.3 pp—
3 months−35.0%−0.5%−34.6 pp—
6 months−41.5%+4.4%−45.9 pp—
Year to date−52.6%+12.3%−64.9 pp—
1 year−60.1%+13.5%−73.7 pp+13.5%
3 years+108.5%+76.4%+32.1 pp+117.2%
5 years+60.8%+63.7%−2.9 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−72.5%
16 Jan 2026 → 04 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−72.5%
16 Jan 2026 → 04 Nov 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
+10.0%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 28 Jun 2026

Revenue
458.8 m USD
+30.5% YoY
Net income
4.4 m USD
+51.7% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.02
0.0% YoY
net / operating
1.0% / -0.3%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue275.9 m283.1 m302.6 m351.5 m347.6 m345.1 m371.0 m458.8 m
Cost of revenue206.7 m213.3 m229.0 m277.7 m270.5 m261.7 m281.4 m358.7 m
Gross profit69.2 m69.8 m73.6 m73.8 m77.1 m83.4 m89.6 m100.1 m
Research & development9.9 m10.6 m10.0 m10.2 m10.0 m9.8 m10.7 m13.6 m
SG&A52.6 m55.7 m57.0 m59.9 m59.8 m63.5 m72.3 m87.3 m
Operating income6.5 m3.0 m6.6 m3.7 m7.1 m8.2 m4.7 m-1.6 m
Depreciation & amortisation10.3 m10.3 m10.4 m11.8 m11.9 m13.0 m16.8 m22.1 m
Pre-tax income5.8 m4.0 m5.4 m4.6 m11.9 m12.1 m9.8 m7.0 m
Income tax2.6 m100.0 k900.0 k1.7 m3.2 m6.2 m-2.1 m2.6 m
Net income3.2 m3.9 m4.5 m2.9 m8.7 m5.9 m11.9 m4.4 m
Diluted EPS0.020.02 ≈0.030.020.050.03 ≈0.070.02
Operating cash flow6.1 m ≈45.6 m-29.2 m-11.7 m ≈-13.3 m ≈12.1 m-27.4 m-11.0 m ≈
Capex15.3 m ≈13.6 m22.6 m20.5 m ≈28.0 m ≈24.2 m19.9 m17.2 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 40 percentile of its own 20-quarter history (min 36.7, median 250.4, max 781.5; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue618.0 m717.5 m747.7 m811.5 m898.3 m1.0 bn1.1 bn1.3 bn
Revenue YoY−17.8%+16.1%+4.2%+8.5%+10.7%+15.5%+9.6%+18.5%
Net income-3.5 m12.5 m79.6 m-2.0 m-36.9 m-8.9 m16.3 m22.0 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailable+536.8%−102.5%unavailableunavailableunavailable+35.0%
Diluted EPS-0.030.110.67-0.02-0.29-0.070.110.13
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailable+509.1%−103.0%unavailableunavailableunavailable+18.2%
net %-0.6%1.7%10.6%-0.2%-4.1%-0.9%1.4%1.6%
Free cash flowunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable-71.1 m12.8 m-8.5 m-137.4 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 28 Dec 2025

Cash
560.6 m USD
Financial debt
0 USD
Net debt
-560.6 m USD
Equity
2.0 bn USD
Total assets
2.5 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.00x
Current ratio
4.06x
ROE
1.3%
ROA
1.0%
FCF margin
-10.2%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
1.0 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
768.5 m
2024
849.1 m
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
268.6 m
2024
287.2 m
2025
307.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Research & development
2023
38.4 m
2024
40.3 m
2025
40.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
198.7 m
2024
217.2 m
2025
240.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
31.1 m
2024
29.0 m
2025
25.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
33.2 m
2024
40.3 m
2025
47.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
64.3 m ≈
2024
69.3 m ≈
2025
72.7 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
21.7 m
2024
15.2 m
2025
9.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
11.1 m
2024
26.5 m
2025
34.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
8.7 m
2024
10.2 m
2025
12.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
-8.9 m
2024
16.3 m
2025
22.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.07
2024
0.11
2025
0.13

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
130.4 m
2024
150.9 m
2025
165.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
72.8 m
2024
329.3 m
2025
560.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
128.8 m
2024
117.5 m
2025
165.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
594.2 m
2024
872.1 m
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
569.1 m
2024
568.9 m
2025
595.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
62.4 m
2024
53.8 m
2025
53.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.6 bn
2024
2.0 bn
2025
2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
63.1 m
2024
82.0 m
2025
69.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
219.3 m
2024
174.6 m
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
292.5 m
2024
296.7 m
2025
311.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
634.0 m
2024
597.7 m
2025
470.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
976.0 m
2024
1.4 bn
2025
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
65.2 m
2024
49.7 m
2025
-42.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
52.4 m
2024
58.2 m
2025
95.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
12.8 m ≈
2024
-8.5 m ≈
2025
-137.4 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-43.8 m
2024
-69.7 m
2025
-88.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-30.7 m
2024
277.6 m
2025
360.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
18.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
14.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
12.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-11.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
35.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
-22.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
18.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
-28.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
23.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
5.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
1.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
Net margin
2.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-8.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
1.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
ROA
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
0.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
1.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
5.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
3.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
-39.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
89.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-128.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
-417.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
-48.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
38 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
32 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
6.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
218.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
206.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
0.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
P/B
2.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
P/S
4.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-1.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

Risk

Altman Z
6.85
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

35.96 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 6.8 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
6.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
206.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
P/B
2.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
1.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Net margin
2.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
18.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 28 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 28 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 04 Aug 2026
verified 2448derived 134

Score by group

50% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · not enough peers
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts (SIC 3760)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality2.0%83 (vs peers)13%
FCF conversion · Quality-417.2%0 (on a fixed band)13%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth14.5%100 (on a fixed band)17%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet1.9x6 (on a fixed band)13%
Current ratio · Balance sheet5.5x100 (on a fixed band)8%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation206.8x0 (on a fixed band)21%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-1.9%0 (on a fixed band)17%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet44/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality42/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

KRATOS DEFENSE & SECURITY SOLUTIONS, INC. (KTOS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-28.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 18.5%; net margin 2.0%; ROE 1.1%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 2.0%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 14.5%
  • Current ratio: 5.5x

What contradicts it

  • FCF conversion: -417.2%
  • Interest coverage: 1.9x
  • P/E (TTM): 206.8x
  • FCF yield: -1.9%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts (SIC 3760) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 6 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
206.8x
vertical median —
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
4.4x
vertical median 10.0x
below median (−55.7%)
P/B
2.0x
vertical median 2.3x
below median (−16.1%)
ROE
1.1%
vertical median -29.0%
above median
Net margin
2.0%
vertical median -68.1%
above median
EBIT margin
1.2%
vertical median -68.2%
above median
Revenue YoY
18.5%
vertical median 12.9%
above median (+44.1%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
—
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
LMTLockheed Martin Corporation137.5 bn21.180.2%8.2%+5.6%+30% / +33%
RKLBRocket Lab Corp31.3 bn—-7.9%-21.5%+38.0%+24% / +1,096%
KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.6.8 bn206.81.1%2.0%+18.5%−60% / +108%
FLYFirefly Aerospace Inc.2.9 bn—-238.4%-126.6%+163.0%−3% / unavailable
RDWRedwire Corporation1.9 bn—-19.2%-57.3%+10.3%+40% / +202%
MNTSMomentus Inc.40.9 m—-68.3%-927.7%−47.5%−85% / −100%
VOYGVoyager Technologies, Inc.——-38.7%-79.0%+15.4%+3% / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for KTOS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
22.13
Total return -38% · Per year -38%
38.95
Total return 8% · Per year 8%
58.44
Total return 63% · Per year 63%
3 years
25.99
Total return -28% · Per year -10%
51.02
Total return 42% · Per year 12%
83.39
Total return 132% · Per year 32%
5 years
30.52
Total return -15% · Per year -3%
66.84
Total return 86% · Per year 13%
118.98
Total return 231% · Per year 27%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 12.76
  • Net margin± 8.93
  • Annual revenue growth± 6.69
  • Annual dilution± 0.75

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Kratos is a defense and national security technology company that develops unmanned systems, missiles, jet engines and microwave electronics, largely funded by its own investments. Its relevance grows as global weapons recapitalization continues, and in the second quarter of 2026 revenue reached 458.8 million USD 123.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company holds proprietary technology and designed-in positions on existing military platforms, which reinforce its market position 1.
  • A record backlog and a book-to-bill above one point to solid demand and some visibility on future revenue 23.
  • Its strategy of being first to market with affordable, mass-producible products sets it apart from traditional integrators 1.

Weaknesses

  • Heavy reliance on U.S. government contracts makes the company sensitive to budget changes and funding delays 1.
  • Large investments in working capital and new facilities weighed on cash flow in the second quarter of 2026 3.
  • Labor costs and shortages of qualified staff can compress margins, especially on fixed-price contracts 13.

Opportunities

  • Rising defense budgets and recapitalization programs could open new contracts for missiles, drones and engines 12.
  • Expanding jet engine and drone production could add revenue if the ramp-up proceeds as planned 3.
  • Margin expansion as production scales could improve profitability over the medium term 3.

Threats

  • Shutdowns, budget delays and bid protests can postpone contracts and revenue 12.
  • Growing competition from new entrants and large integrators could press prices 1.
  • Inflation, supply chain disruption and changes in acquisition policy could raise costs and uncertainty 1.

Risks

  • Dependence on the U.S. Governmenthigh

    Most revenue comes from government contracts, so budget cuts or delays could directly affect results 1.

  • Competitive pressurehigh

    Competitors with greater resources or lower costs could reduce Kratos' market share and margins 1.

  • Costs and supply chainmedium

    Inflation and supply disruptions could raise production costs, especially on fixed-price contracts 13.

  • Capital needs and cash flowmedium

    Large investments in facilities and inventory could require additional financing if revenue lags 13.

  • Security and compliancelow

    Cybersecurity and certification requirements may limit bidding or lead to penalties 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If organic growth from the second quarter holds and backlog converts to revenue, the company could meet its revised 2026 guidance 3.
  • Global defense recapitalization and added funding could support demand for Kratos products over several years 12.
  • If engine and drone production grows as planned, economies of scale could improve margins 3.

What would break the thesis

  • If defense budgets are delayed or cut, new contracts could slow and revenue could fall short of expectations 12.
  • Large investments and high working capital could keep cash flow under pressure for longer 3.
  • Competition from new entrants and large integrators could reduce prices and margins, especially if labor costs stay high 1.

What to watch

  • Guidance for third and fourth quarter 2026 revenueQ3 2026
  • Delivery of the forecast organic growth for fiscal 20262026
  • Evolution of backlog and book-to-bill ratioQ3 2026
  • Progress of jet engine and Valkyrie drone production ramp-up2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Kratos presents itself as a technology, hardware, products, system and software company that aims to develop solutions quickly for clients in defense, national security and commercial markets 1. Its main areas include virtualized ground systems for satellites, jet-powered drones, hypersonic systems and rockets, propulsion for drones and missiles, C5ISR and microwave electronics, and training systems 1. The company says it makes large internally funded investments, for example in solid rocket motor facilities, jet engine and drone production, and that investments tied to its Prometheus venture with Rafael and its Oklahoma turbofan plant should ramp up in 2026 12.

The company reports in two segments: Kratos Government Solutions, which combines microwave, space and cyber, training, C5ISR, turbine technologies and rocket support, and Unmanned Systems, which covers aerial, ground and seaborne unmanned platforms 1. Its primary customers are national security agencies, especially the U.S. Department of War, and Kratos stresses that it aims to be first to market with affordable, mass-producible solutions 1. It can act as prime contractor or partner with large integrators when the required investment exceeds what it is comfortable making 1.

In the second quarter of 2026, the Government Solutions segment reported revenue of 379.7 million USD and Unmanned Systems of 79.1 million USD 3. The company also reported negative operating cash flow of 11.0 million USD in the same quarter, reflecting working capital needs tied to receivables and inventory 3.

Segments

Unmanned Systems (KUS)

The segment reported revenue of 79.1 million USD in the second quarter of 2026, with 8.1% organic growth, mainly driven by Valkyrie activity 3. Operating income was 1.2 million USD, against an operating loss of 0.3 million USD a year earlier 3. The company forecasts about 10% organic growth for this segment in 2026 following recent contract awards, including Valkyrie 3.

Market context

The defense market is supported by a global recapitalization of weapon systems driven by tensions with Russia, China, North Korea and Iran 12. For fiscal 2026, Congress approved 838.7 billion USD for defense, and with extra OBBBA funds and Department of Energy national security funding, total national security spending approaches 1 trillion USD 1. Budget pressures and delays in appropriations remain a source of uncertainty in this market 1.

Demand for affordable, mass-produced systems such as small cruise missiles and drones appears to be rising, and Kratos reported a record backlog of 2.084 billion USD on June 28, 2026 23. Its trailing twelve-month book-to-bill of 1.3 to 1 suggests demand is running ahead of current revenue 3. If budget allocations materialize, the company could convert this portfolio into revenue in the coming years 3.

Trends

  • Global defense recapitalizationtailwind

    The United States and its allies are rebuilding their defense industrial bases, which could support long-term demand for Kratos products 12.

  • Additional defense fundingtailwind

    The OBBBA and the 2026 appropriations package added funds that could accelerate new contracts if spent on schedule 1.

  • Government shutdowns and delaysheadwind

    Shutdowns and delayed approvals can postpone contracts, and the company notes these delays affect revenue and cash flow 1.

  • Labor costs and supply chainmixed

    Shortages of skilled staff and supply chain disruptions raise costs and can pressure margins, especially on fixed-price contracts 13.

Competitive position

Kratos faces competition from large traditional integrators with greater financial and engineering resources, as well as commercial contractors and defense technology start-ups 1. Alternative contracting methods such as OTA agreements have eased entry for new players and can increase pricing pressure 1. Some competitors receive government support or easier access to technology, which can strengthen their position 1.

Kratos competes on speed of development, low cost and internally funded investment, and partners with large integrators when its probability of winning rises 1. The company believes long-standing customer relationships and designed-in positions on platforms give it an advantage 1. If traditional integrators manage to cut costs, Kratos' speed advantage could become harder to sustain 1.

  • Lockheed MartinLMT

    Large U.S. defense integrator with extensive missile and space capabilities, cited as part of the traditional integrator group Kratos competes with or partners with 1.

  • RTX CorporationRTX

    Large defense company active in missiles and sensor systems, placed in the traditional integrator category in Kratos' sources 1.

  • Northrop GrummanNOC

    Defense and space systems integrator, relevant for comparison in the space and strategic systems areas Kratos highlights 1.

  • Defense technology start-ups

    Commercial and start-up firms using agile acquisition models and accepting higher risk, named as emerging competitors in Kratos' sources 1.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-28 · SEC / Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. · 23 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-28 · SEC / Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.