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olivLaw · US equity research

Lumentum Holdings Inc. LITE

Communications Equipment, NEC · SIC 3669 · Vertical: Communications Equipment, NEC (SIC 3669)

680.16USD−0.62% · 1 dayClose 03 Nov 2026

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) is a global leader in optical and photonic technologies, with net revenue of $3.01 billion in fiscal 2026. Demand from AI and cloud data centers has outpaced current supply, and first-quarter fiscal 2027 guidance points to revenue between $1.225 and $1.275 billion. The company runs one integrated segment and has notable customer concentration, which could matter if demand shifts.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 03 Nov 2026, Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) stock was 680.16 USD (−0.62% on the day), with market capitalisation 61.7 bn USD, beta 2.61, 52-week range 188.36–1,133.40 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q1 2027): revenue of 1.3 bn USD (+136.5% YoY), net income of 360.3 m USD (+8,478.6% YoY), diluted EPS 3.54 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
61.7 bn USD
shares as of 28 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -191.91 · TTM to 26 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
-28.21%
TTM to 26 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
2.61
Volatility (1y) 101%
52-week range
188.361,133.40

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
34.4
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
640.28 – 1,117.31
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.08 · band width 54.3%
SMA 50 / 200
916.26 / 804.66
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-50.05 / -32.47
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−37.3%−2.0%−35.3 pp—
3 months−19.9%−2.2%−17.8 pp—
6 months−31.6%+4.3%−35.9 pp—
Year to date+84.5%+10.6%+74.0 pp—
1 year+240.8%+10.5%+230.3 pp−42.9%
3 years+1,490.6%+73.7%+1,417.0 pp+22.4%
5 years+669.9%+61.7%+608.2 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−42.8%
11 May 2026 → 29 Jul 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−66.5%
11 Jan 2022 → 27 Oct 2023
Compound annual growth (5y)
+50.4%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q1 2027 · 26 Sept 2026

Revenue
1.3 bn USD
+136.5% YoY
Net income
360.3 m USD
+8,478.6% YoY
Diluted EPS
3.54
+6,980.0% YoY
net / operating
28.5% / 28.5%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '26Q1 '27
Revenue402.2 m425.2 m480.7 m533.8 m665.5 m808.4 m1.0 bn1.3 bn
Cost of revenue281.2 m283.7 m301.5 m332.8 m405.8 m432.1 m509.8 m599.5 m
Gross profit99.6 m122.5 m159.9 m181.5 m240.1 m357.0 m477.3 m644.0 m
Research & development74.2 m75.9 m79.5 m81.4 m80.1 m90.6 m104.4 m191.8 m
SG&A76.3 m112.0 m83.6 m85.1 m96.1 m90.8 m91.2 m99.3 m
Operating income-51.6 m-37.7 m-8.4 m6.7 m64.3 m174.5 m279.3 m359.8 m
Interest expense5.6 m5.7 m5.4 m5.7 m6.3 m6.2 m3.6 m2.4 m
Income tax18.6 m4.9 m-224.7 m1.0 m18.3 m39.6 m-296.6 m10.0 m
Net income-60.9 m-44.1 m213.3 m4.2 m78.2 m144.2 m-7.2 bn360.3 m
Diluted EPS-0.88-0.642.96 ≈0.050.891.50-197.84 ≈3.54
Operating cash flow24.3 m ≈-1.6 m ≈64.0 m57.9 m126.7 m ≈203.8 m ≈363.0 m267.7 m
Capex40.2 m ≈62.8 m ≈53.9 m76.2 m83.6 m ≈124.7 m ≈166.8 m229.8 m

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20192020202120222023202420252026
Revenue1.6 bn1.7 bn1.7 bn1.7 bn1.8 bn1.4 bn1.6 bn3.0 bn
Revenue YoY+25.5%+7.2%+3.8%−1.7%+3.2%−23.1%+21.0%+83.2%
Net income-36.4 m135.5 m397.3 m198.9 m-131.6 m-546.5 m25.9 m-6.9 bn
Net income YoY−114.7%unavailable+193.2%−49.9%−166.2%unavailableunavailable−26,876.4%
Diluted EPS-0.541.755.072.68-1.93-8.120.37-92.96
Diluted EPS YoY−114.1%unavailable+189.7%−47.1%−172.0%unavailableunavailable−25,224.3%
net %-2.3%8.1%22.8%11.6%-7.4%-40.2%1.6%-230.1%
Free cash flow164.1 m438.3 m653.9 m368.1 m51.3 m-108.3 m-104.7 m300.1 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 27 Jun 2026

Cash
2.0 bn USD
Financial debt
1.6 bn USD
Net debt
-406.1 m USD
Equity
4.6 bn USD
Total assets
7.3 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.35x
Current ratio
1.68x
ROE
-240.0%
ROA
-120.3%
FCF margin
10.0%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.6 bn
2026
3.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2024
1.0 bn
2025
1.1 bn
2026
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

Gross profit
2024
251.5 m
2025
459.9 m
2026
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

Research & development
2024
302.2 m
2025
303.9 m
2026
356.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

SG&A
2024
310.7 m
2025
348.2 m
2026
363.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

Operating income
2024
-434.0 m
2025
-180.1 m
2026
524.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

Interest expense
2024
33.8 m
2025
22.2 m
2026
21.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

Income tax
2024
140.8 m
2025
-198.0 m
2026
-237.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

Net income
2024
-546.5 m
2025
25.9 m
2026
-6.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2024
-8.12
2025
0.37
2026
-92.96

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2024
67.3 m
2025
69.6 m
2026
74.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2024
436.7 m
2025
520.7 m
2026
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

Receivables
2024
—
2025
—
2026
0

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified

Inventories
2024
398.4 m
2025
470.1 m
2026
691.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

Current assets
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.7 bn
2026
4.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
—
2025
—
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Nov 2023verified

Goodwill
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.1 bn
2026
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2024
617.5 m
2025
465.1 m
2026
326.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

Total assets
2024
3.9 bn
2025
4.2 bn
2026
7.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

Accounts payable
2024
126.3 m
2025
225.2 m
2026
567.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

Short-term debt
2024
0
2025
10.6 m
2026
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

Long-term debt
2024
2.5 bn
2025
2.6 bn
2026
40.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

Current liabilities
2024
269.3 m
2025
392.8 m
2026
2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

Total liabilities
2024
3.0 bn
2025
3.1 bn
2026
2.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

Equity
2024
957.3 m †
2025
1.1 bn †
2026
4.6 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2024
24.7 m
2025
126.3 m
2026
751.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

Capex
2024
133.0 m
2025
231.0 m
2026
451.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

Free cash flow
2024
-108.3 m ≈
2025
-104.7 m ≈
2026
300.1 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2024
-114.3 m
2025
-84.1 m
2026
-785.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
-332.7 m
2025
41.8 m
2026
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified

Dividends paid
2024
—
2025
—
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Aug 2021verified

Share repurchases
2024
0
2025
0
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2025verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
83.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue CAGR 3Y
19.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Revenue CAGR 5Y
11.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
-26,876.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-25,224.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
45.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
23.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Net margin
-175.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
FCF margin
9.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
-245.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
ROA
-110.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
ROIC
18.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
ROCE
18.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
127.4 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
47.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
961.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
604.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
356.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
10 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
95 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
61.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
61.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-28.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
P/B
13.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
P/S
16.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
70.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
16.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
P/FCF
173.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
FCF yield
0.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 43 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])

Closing price

680.16 USD

03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 61.7 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
61.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
13.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
-245.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Net margin
-175.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
83.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 26 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 26 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 28 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 03 Nov 2026
verified 1995derived 107

Score by group

  • Balance sheet48
  • Quality48
  • Valuation5
  • Growth82

Estimated value range

Low
56.67
USD per share
Mid
65.14
USD per share
High
79.72
USD per share
Price: 680.16 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -90.4% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -944.2% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 46.43 – 103.43 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)66.92 – 103.43 (Mid 81.12)
    WACC 9.2% · starting FCFF 371.8 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
  • Peers: EV/Sales46.43 – 56.01 (Mid 49.16)
    5 companies used · median multiple 1.2x · quartiles 1.2x – 1.4x
    AIOT, KSCP, MTEK, REKR, TBCH
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Communications Equipment, NEC (SIC 3669)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 43/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
Gross margin · Quality45.9%15 (on a fixed band)12%
EBIT margin · Quality23.5%100 (vs peers)10%
FCF margin · Quality9.5%38 (on a fixed band)10%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth19.5%78 (on a fixed band)19%
Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth83.2%91 (vs peers)10%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.6x48 (on a fixed band)7%
EV/Sales · Valuation16.5x0 (vs peers)19%
FCF yield · Valuation0.6%12 (on a fixed band)14%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial48/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Growth82/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality48/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/1 factors with a value
  • Valuation5/100 · 2/2 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-09-26.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.0 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 83.2%; net margin -175.8%; ROE -245.8%.

The estimated value range is 56.67–79.72 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 65.14 USD, the price of 680.16 USD leaves a potential of -90.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -944.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 43/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • EBIT margin: 23.5%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 19.5%
  • Revenue growth (YoY): 83.2%

What contradicts it

  • Gross margin: 45.9%
  • EV/Sales: 16.5x
  • FCF yield: 0.6%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions).

Versus the vertical median

Communications Equipment, NEC (SIC 3669) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 11 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 22.6x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 21.7x
P/S
16.5x
vertical median 1.6x
above median (+953.1%)
P/B
13.5x
vertical median 1.5x
above median (+787.9%)
ROE
-245.8%
vertical median -11.7%
below median
Net margin
-175.8%
vertical median -6.4%
below median
EBIT margin
23.5%
vertical median -4.3%
above median
Revenue YoY
83.2%
vertical median 4.9%
above median (+1,596.6%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 3.9x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
LITELumentum Holdings Inc.61.7 bn—-245.8%-175.8%+83.2%+241% / +1,491%
ESEEsco Technologies Inc.6.2 bn19.821.4%24.4%+19.2%+13% / +128%
NSSCNapco Security Technologies, Inc1.1 bn25.923.4%21.6%+11.4%−21% / +4%
AIOTPowerfleet, Inc.381.2 m—-4.0%-4.2%+22.4%−43% / +22%
TBCHTurtle Beach Corporation303.7 m—-3.2%-1.1%−14.2%+22% / +50%
INSGInseego Corp.79.3 m25.3—-6.4%−13.1%−56% / +120%
AMPGAmplitech Group, Inc.74.5 m—-19.4%-33.4%+165.0%−25% / +56%
REKRRekor Systems, Inc.49.3 m—-62.8%-43.8%+5.3%−80% / −87%
KSCPKnightscope, Inc.34.7 m—-201.3%-217.3%+4.9%−91% / −98%
SNTSenstar Technologies Corporation33.7 m10.38.0%8.8%+1.7%−63% / +28%
UTSIUTStarcom Holdings Corp.19.2 m—-19.5%-88.5%−17.5%−16% / −42%
MTEKMaris-Tech Ltd.2.1 m—-168.6%-403.3%−77.9%−81% / −75%

1- and 3-year price returns: for LITE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 17 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (03 Nov 2026), 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results).

    In brief

    Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) is a global leader in optical and photonic technologies, with net revenue of $3.01 billion in fiscal 2026 2. Demand from AI and cloud data centers has outpaced current supply, and first-quarter fiscal 2027 guidance points to revenue between $1.225 and $1.275 billion 2. The company runs one integrated segment and has notable customer concentration, which could matter if demand shifts.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • Leading position in optical and photonic technologies, with close relationships with major cloud and AI customers 1.
    • Improving margins and cash generation, with substantial liquidity at the end of fiscal 2026 2.
    • Broad portfolio from components to complete systems, allowing integrated solutions for customers 1.

    Weaknesses

    • Reliance on a small number of major customers who can negotiate strong terms 1.
    • Dependence on a limited number of suppliers for materials and components, which can delay production 1.
    • High exposure to revenue from outside the United States amid trade and geopolitical tensions 1.

    Opportunities

    • Expansion into in-rack connectivity and integrated optics as optical links move closer to servers 2.
    • Growing AI workloads and cloud data center expansion could sustain long-term demand 1.
    • Industrial and 3D sensing markets, including automotive, could add opportunities depending on their development 1.

    Threats

    • Tariffs, export controls and trade restrictions between the United States and China could affect demand and costs 1.
    • Competition from Chinese optical producers if restrictions favor local suppliers 1.
    • Risk of supply disruption for critical materials such as rare earth metals 1.

    Risks

    • Customer concentrationhigh

      A small number of customers account for a large share of revenue, and losing or reducing orders from them could affect results 1.

    • Tariffs and export controlshigh

      Trade measures between the United States and China could raise costs and limit sales in certain regions 1.

    • Limited supplymedium

      Reliance on few suppliers for components and materials can lead to production delays if problems arise 1.

    • Convertible debt and dilutionmedium

      Conversion of certain convertible notes produced a large non-cash loss and could dilute shareholders if further tranches convert 12.

    • Cyclical demandmedium

      Customers may reduce or delay orders when adjusting inventories, which can cause sudden revenue swings 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If demand for optical connectivity in AI data centers keeps growing, the company could see sustained expansion in revenue and margins 12.
    • First-quarter fiscal 2027 guidance points to acceleration ahead of earlier plans, which could support growth in the following period 2.
    • A broad portfolio from components to complete systems could let the company capture more value as optical architectures expand 1.

    What would break the thesis

    • If major customers reduce orders or switch suppliers, revenue could drop quickly given the current concentration 1.
    • Tariffs and trade restrictions could raise costs and compress margins if they cannot be passed on to customers 1.
    • If competing producers, including those in China, gain share, pricing pressure could increase 1.

    What to watch

    • Delivery against first-quarter revenue and margin guidanceQ1 2027
    • Impact of tariffs and trade investigations on costs2027
    • Progress of manufacturing capacity and adoption of new optical products2027

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 17 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (03 Nov 2026), 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results).

    The business

    Lumentum makes optical and photonic components (laser chips, subassemblies, wavelength management subsystems) and complete systems (optical modules, optical circuit switches, industrial lasers). Its products support high-capacity connectivity for cloud, AI/ML, data center interconnect and telecom networks, as well as precision industrial processing and 3D sensing in consumer electronics 1. Headquarters are in San Jose, California, with manufacturing in North America, Asia-Pacific and Europe 1. From fiscal 2026 the company is managed as a single integrated enterprise with no separate operating segments 1.

    Revenue mix shows strong growth: in fiscal 2026 Components generated $2.0 billion and Systems $1.0 billion, versus $1.1 billion and $0.5 billion in fiscal 2025 2. Over time the company has grown through acquisitions, including Oclaro, NeoPhotonics and Cloud Light 1. International exposure is high, with over 79% of revenue from customers outside the United States 1.

    Segments

    Components

    Components (laser chips, subassemblies, wavelength management subsystems) made up $2.0 billion of fiscal 2026 revenue, the largest product category, mainly sold to cloud data center operators and network equipment manufacturers 12.

    Single reporting segment

    Starting in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 the company no longer reports separate segments (Cloud & Networking and Industrial Tech) and instead operates as one integrated enterprise 1. Prior-period segment information was recast with no effect on consolidated results 1.

    Market context

    The company serves optical networking for cloud and AI, telecommunications, industrial lasers and 3D sensing for consumer electronics 1. Demand for optical connectivity is supported by data center expansion and the shift from copper to photonics, and Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue reached $1.01 billion 12.

    Customers are concentrated: in fiscal 2026 Customer A accounted for 26.6% of revenue and Customer B for 15.0% 1. If demand from these customers declines, the effect on revenue could be substantial, making these relationships a key factor to watch 1.

    Trends

    • AI and cloud demandtailwind

      Growing AI workloads are accelerating demand for high-speed optical links in data centers, and management says demand is outpacing current supply 1.

    • Shift from copper to photonicstailwind

      New optical architectures (scale-out, scale-up and scale-across) are increasingly replacing copper interconnects, expanding the addressable market 1.

    • Tariffs and trade restrictionsheadwind

      Tariffs and export controls can raise costs and pressure margins if the company cannot pass them on to customers, and the policy path remains uncertain 1.

    • Customer inventory cyclesmixed

      Customers may build or reduce inventories depending on component availability, which caused large demand swings in the past, although inventory levels normalized from fiscal 2025 1.

    Competitive position

    Lumentum competes with various public and private companies that supply photonic components, modules and systems 1. Some competitors are also customers for certain products, which makes the competitive relationship more complex 1.

    The supplied sources do not name specific direct competitors. Competitive pressure could rise if Chinese optical and photonics producers gain share, a possibility the company flags explicitly in its risk factors 1.

    • Public and private photonics component companies

      The source refers generally to public and private companies in photonic components without naming them.

    • Chinese optical and photonics producers

      The company warns they could compete more aggressively if trade restrictions favor local suppliers.

    • Customers that are also competitors

      Some competitors are also customers for certain products, which complicates the commercial relationship.

    • Network equipment manufacturers (NEMs)

      These manufacturers are both customers and potential in-house suppliers of optical components.

    News & filings

    In the press

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-06-27 · SEC / Lumentum Holdings Inc. · 17 Aug 2026
    2. [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Lumentum Holdings Inc. · 11 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.