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olivLaw · US equity research

Mueller Industries, Inc. MLI

Rolling Drawing & Extruding of Nonferrous Metals · SIC 3350

55.20USD−0.63% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Mueller Industries makes copper, brass and aluminum products, from tubes and fittings to cables and HVAC and refrigeration components. Net sales rose 25.6 percent in the first nine months of 2026, helped by higher copper prices and demand from data centers and commercial building, while residential construction stays weak.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI) stock was 55.20 USD (−0.63% on the day), with market capitalisation 12.0 bn USD, P/E 8.0 on diluted EPS of 6.86 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.40%, beta 1.09, 52-week range 52.27–70.42 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.4 bn USD (+31.6% YoY), net income of 221.2 m USD (+6.3% YoY), diluted EPS 1.00 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
12.0 bn USD
shares as of 16 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
8.0
Diluted EPS TTM 6.86 · TTM to 27 Dec 2025
E/P (TTM)
12.43%
TTM to 27 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
2.40%
DPS 12m 1.33
Beta (2y)
1.09
Volatility (1y) 34%
52-week range
52.2770.42

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
37.5
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
51.95 – 63.01
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.29 · band width 19.2%
SMA 50 / 200
59.93 / 62.14
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-1.65 / -1.58
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−12.3%−1.1%−11.2 pp—
3 months−20.3%−0.5%−19.8 pp—
6 months−20.6%+4.4%−25.0 pp—
Year to date−3.8%+12.3%−16.1 pp—
1 year+2.9%+13.5%−10.6 pp—
3 years+178.3%+76.4%+101.9 pp—
5 years+291.4%+63.7%+227.7 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−23.2%
08 May 2026 → 23 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−28.2%
11 Nov 2024 → 21 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
+31.4%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 26 Sept 2026

Revenue
1.4 bn USD
+31.6% YoY
Net income
221.2 m USD
+6.3% YoY
Diluted EPS
1.00
+6.4% YoY
net / operating
15.6% / 19.8%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue923.5 m1.0 bn1.1 bn1.1 bn962.4 m1.2 bn1.4 bn1.4 bn
Cost of revenue668.2 m728.2 m785.2 m738.1 m714.6 m834.6 m1.0 bn1.1 bn
Gross profit255.4 m———————
SG&A64.7 m63.1 m67.5 m61.7 m56.4 m66.8 m67.9 m63.0 m
Operating income170.3 m206.3 m304.2 m276.1 m172.0 m312.2 m310.0 m281.6 m
Depreciation & amortisation22.2 m17.1 m17.9 m16.6 m16.9 m16.7 m17.3 m21.2 m
Interest expense75.0 k25.0 k17.0 k6.0 k60.0 k0134.0 k136.0 k
Pre-tax income178.2 m211.2 m324.4 m280.5 m196.2 m320.8 m326.2 m299.2 m
Income tax45.7 m51.5 m78.9 m73.9 m43.1 m79.6 m82.9 m76.6 m
Net income137.7 m157.4 m245.9 m208.1 m153.7 m239.0 m249.7 m221.2 m
Diluted EPS1.211.391.110.94—2.161.131.00
Operating cash flow140.1 m113.6 m190.6 m ≈310.1 m ≈141.2 m79.7 m212.3 m ≈337.0 m ≈
Capex28.9 m16.6 m14.1 m ≈18.3 m ≈19.8 m17.2 m21.6 m ≈22.0 m ≈
Dividends paid22.3 m27.3 m27.1 m ≈27.3 m ≈27.3 m38.0 m38.1 m ≈37.8 m ≈
Share repurchases0243.6 m0 ≈0 ≈075.0 m1.5 m ≈201.9 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 97 percentile of its own 35-quarter history (min 1.5, median 4.3, max 10.9; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue2.5 bn2.4 bn2.4 bn3.8 bn4.0 bn3.4 bn3.8 bn4.2 bn
Revenue YoY+10.7%−3.1%−1.3%+57.2%+5.7%−14.1%+10.2%+10.9%
Net income104.5 m101.0 m139.5 m468.5 m658.3 m602.9 m604.9 m765.2 m
Net income YoY+22.0%−3.3%+38.2%+235.9%+40.5%−8.4%+0.3%+26.5%
Diluted EPS1.821.792.474.125.825.305.316.86
Diluted EPS YoY+22.1%−1.6%+38.0%+66.8%+41.3%−8.9%+0.2%+29.2%
net %4.2%4.2%5.8%12.4%16.5%17.6%16.0%18.3%
Free cash flow129.4 m169.4 m201.2 m279.9 m686.3 m618.7 m565.7 m686.6 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 27 Dec 2025

Cash
1.4 bn USD
Financial debt
0 USD
Net debt
-1.4 bn USD
Equity
3.2 bn USD
Total assets
3.7 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.00x
Current ratio
5.92x
ROE
25.3%
ROA
21.8%
FCF margin
16.4%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
3.4 bn
2024
3.8 bn
2025
4.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
2.4 bn
2024
2.7 bn
2025
3.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
986.8 m ≈
2024
1.0 bn ≈
2025
1.2 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived

SG&A
2023
208.2 m
2024
226.7 m
2025
248.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
756.1 m
2024
770.4 m
2025
958.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
40.0 m
2024
53.1 m
2025
68.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
796.0 m ≈
2024
823.5 m ≈
2025
1.0 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
1.2 m
2024
410.0 k
2025
108.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
845.2 m
2024
820.5 m
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
220.8 m
2024
205.1 m
2025
247.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
602.9 m
2024
604.9 m
2025
765.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
5.30
2024
5.31
2025
6.86

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
113.7 m
2024
114.0 m
2025
111.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.60
2024
0.80
2025
1.00

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.0 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
351.6 m
2024
450.1 m
2025
475.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
380.2 m
2024
462.3 m
2025
510.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
2.0 bn
2024
2.0 bn
2025
2.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
385.2 m
2024
515.1 m
2025
536.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
151.8 m
2024
311.2 m
2025
298.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
46.2 m
2024
306.4 m
2025
287.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
2.8 bn
2024
3.3 bn
2025
3.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
120.5 m
2024
173.7 m
2025
180.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
796.0 k
2024
1.1 m
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
185.0 k
2024
0
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jul 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
317.1 m
2024
398.0 m
2025
413.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
400.6 m
2024
486.5 m
2025
497.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
2.4 bn
2024
2.8 bn
2025
3.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
672.8 m
2024
645.9 m
2025
755.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
54.0 m
2024
80.2 m
2025
68.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
618.7 m ≈
2024
565.7 m ≈
2025
686.6 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
135.1 m
2024
-606.9 m
2025
-24.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-104.5 m
2024
-160.5 m
2025
-394.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
66.9 m
2024
89.1 m
2025
109.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
19.3 m
2024
48.7 m
2025
243.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
10.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
1.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
11.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
24.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
26.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
5.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
40.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
29.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
5.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
22.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
21.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
27.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
22.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
21.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Net margin
17.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
FCF margin
13.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
26.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
ROA
21.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
ROIC
41.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
ROCE
29.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
19.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
20.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
-1.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-1.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
3,259.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
4.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
3.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
2.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
770.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
80.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
689.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
79.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
67.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
47 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
57 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
24 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
79 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
12.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
10.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
13.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
13.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
7.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
P/B
3.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
P/S
2.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
9.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
9.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
2.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
P/FCF
17.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
FCF yield
5.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
2.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
3.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026

Risk

Altman Z
13.59
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 73 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

55.20 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 12.0 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
12.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
13.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
P/B
3.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
9.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
ROE
26.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Net margin
17.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
10.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
2.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

35/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 26 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 26 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 16 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 21 Oct 2026
verified 3053derived 200

Score by group

  • Valuation65
  • Returns70
  • Quality92
  • Balance sheet100
  • Growth26

Estimated value range

Low
45.56
USD per share
Mid
53.38
USD per share
High
65.58
USD per share
Price: 55.20 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -3.3% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -3.4% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 45.56 – 65.58 USD.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)45.56 – 65.58 (Mid 53.38)
    WACC 9.3% · starting FCFF 689.8 m USD · terminal value share of EV 72%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 3.3%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · not enough peers
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate13.14 – 17.67 (Mid 15.07)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 73/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality41.2%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Net margin · Quality17.3%100 (on a fixed band)6%
FCF conversion · Quality79.9%71 (on a fixed band)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth1.6%13 (on a fixed band)8%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth5.6%38 (on a fixed band)8%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-1.3x100 (on a fixed band)10%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet3,259.9x100 (on a fixed band)6%
Current ratio · Balance sheet4.4x100 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation13.9x73 (on a fixed band)10%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation9.2x52 (on a fixed band)10%
FCF yield · Valuation5.7%72 (on a fixed band)8%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns3.5%50 (on a fixed band)6%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns20.5%100 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet100/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth26/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality92/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns70/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation65/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

MUELLER INDUSTRIES, INC (MLI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-26.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.2 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 10.9%; net margin 17.3%; ROE 26.2%; net debt/EBITDA -1.3x.

The estimated value range is 45.56–65.58 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 53.38 USD, the price of 55.20 USD leaves a potential of -3.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -3.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 73/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 41.2%
  • Net margin: 17.3%
  • FCF conversion: 79.9%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: -1.3x
  • Interest coverage: 3,259.9x
  • Current ratio: 4.4x
  • P/E (TTM): 13.9x
  • FCF yield: 5.7%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 20.5%

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 1.6%

Versus the vertical median

Not enough comparable companies with data for an average.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
31.68
Total return -42% · Per year -42%
56.09
Total return 3% · Per year 3%
84.60
Total return 55% · Per year 55%
3 years
28.99
Total return -44% · Per year -18%
57.92
Total return 9% · Per year 3%
96.16
Total return 80% · Per year 22%
5 years
26.53
Total return -47% · Per year -12%
59.80
Total return 16% · Per year 3%
109.30
Total return 108% · Per year 16%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 14.48
  • Net margin± 10.14
  • Annual revenue growth± 8.56
  • Annual dilution± 0.85

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Mueller Industries makes copper, brass and aluminum products, from tubes and fittings to cables and HVAC and refrigeration components. Net sales rose 25.6 percent in the first nine months of 2026, helped by higher copper prices and demand from data centers and commercial building, while residential construction stays weak.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Leading position in copper tube and a very solid balance sheet with high liquidity and a strong current ratio 13.
  • A broad product mix across three segments reduces dependence on any single end market 1.
  • Ability to pass raw material costs on to customers through price adjustments 12.

Weaknesses

  • Dependence on copper prices and cost-to-price spreads can affect earnings and cash flow 2.
  • Exposure to residential construction, a sector that has weakened in recent years 23.
  • Some product lines are harder to forecast, and union contracts can raise operating costs 1.

Opportunities

  • Demand from data centers and commercial building could keep growing and support orders 3.
  • Investment in North American manufacturing and reshoring could lower costs and reduce import dependence 3.
  • If residential construction recovers, tube and fitting volumes could return to earlier levels 3.

Threats

  • Tariffs and trade disputes can raise costs and reduce customer demand 1.
  • Competition from low-cost producers and substitution by plastic or aluminum can compress margins 12.
  • A sharp fall in copper prices could affect inventory values and reported results 2.

Risks

  • Raw material price volatilityhigh

    Copper, brass and aluminum prices are volatile, and if pass-through to customers lags, margins can fall 1.

  • Tariffs and tradehigh

    Uncertainty over trade policy can raise costs and reduce demand, and its effects are hard to predict 1.

  • Construction cyclicalitymedium

    A prolonged slowdown in housing construction could reduce volumes in the Piping Systems segment 13.

  • Strikes and labor contractsmedium

    A large share of employees are covered by collective agreements, and failed negotiations could lead to strikes 1.

  • Environmental regulationlow

    Compliance and emissions costs could rise, and remediation reserves might prove insufficient 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Year-over-year earnings growth for nine consecutive quarters shows a solid ability to navigate the cycle 3.
  • Demand from data centers and commercial building could offset weakness in residential construction 3.
  • A strong balance sheet and high liquidity could support acquisitions and share repurchases 3.

What would break the thesis

  • Sales growth has been driven largely by copper prices, which could reverse and undo the trend 23.
  • If tariffs and trade disputes intensify, costs and demand could be hit 1.
  • Persistent weakness in residential construction could limit long-term growth 23.

What to watch

  • Copper COMEX price trend and its effect on marginsQ4 2026
  • Pace of housing starts and commercial construction2027
  • Impact of tariffs and new trade policy on costs2027
  • Results of North American manufacturing investments and reshoringnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Mueller Industries is a leading manufacturer of copper, brass and aluminum products, with operations in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Great Britain, South Korea, the Middle East and China 1. Its range includes copper tube and fittings, line sets, brass rod and shapes, forgings, aluminum impact extrusions, refrigeration valves, flexible duct systems and wire and cable 1. The company reports in three segments: Piping Systems, Industrial Metals and Climate 1.

Demand depends largely on new housing starts and commercial construction, since much of the output goes into HVAC, refrigeration and plumbing systems 1. Repairs and remodeling support underlying demand, and products also serve transportation, automotive and industrial uses 1.

In 2026 the company acquired Bison, which added sales in the third quarter, and sold Sherwood in the first quarter 2. Selling prices generally move with raw material costs, which are passed through to customers by price adjustments 2.

Segments

Piping Systems

The largest segment, covering copper tube and fittings, line sets and plumbing products, with operations in the US, Canada, Great Britain, South Korea and the Middle East 1. Its figures for the first nine months of 2026 are in the quarterly tables 2.

Industrial Metals

The segment includes brass rod, forgings, aluminum extrusions, specialty tube and high-quality wire and cable, sold mainly to industrial OEMs, utilities and the energy sector 12. The 2024 Nehring acquisition created a platform for growth in energy infrastructure 1.

Climate

The segment makes refrigeration valves, high-pressure components, coaxial heat exchangers and flexible HVAC duct, selling mainly in the US 12.

Market context

Copper prices are a major driver. The third-quarter 2026 COMEX average was 6.48 USD per pound, up 34.2 percent on the prior year, which lifted sales through higher prices 3. Demand is shifting toward data centers and commercial building, while plastic could keep substituting for copper in plumbing 23.

Trends

  • Higher copper pricesmixed

    Higher copper prices lift nominal sales, but also raise working capital and inventory costs, which could squeeze margins if prices reverse sharply 23.

  • Data center demandtailwind

    Growth in data center investment supported orders across segments in the third quarter of 2026, according to management 3.

  • Weak residential constructionheadwind

    Housing starts have fallen from the prior year, and the company says the prolonged decline in residential building remains a challenge 23.

  • Tariffsheadwind

    Uncertainty over US tariffs and retaliation by other countries could raise raw material costs and reduce demand from affected customers 1.

Competitive position

The company competes with several producers depending on the product line. In US copper tube, rivals include Cerro Flow Products and Cambridge-Lee Industries, and in copper fittings, NIBCO 1. In brass rod, it competes with Wieland Chase and foreign makers, and in cable with Prysmian and Southwire 1.

Pressure also comes from imports and substitutes such as plastic and aluminum, and moving production to low-cost countries can reduce North American demand 12.

  • Cerro Flow Products

    Competitor in US copper tube, named in the annual report 1.

  • NIBCO

    Main domestic competitor in copper fittings 1.

  • Wieland Chase

    Competitor in brass rod, part of a German group 1.

  • Prysmian

    Competitor in cable and high-voltage products 1.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 09 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 21 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-27 · SEC / Mueller Industries, Inc. · 25 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-26 · SEC / Mueller Industries, Inc. · 21 Oct 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Mueller Industries, Inc. · 20 Oct 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.