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olivLaw · US equity research

New Jersey Resources Corporation NJR

Natural Gas Distribution · SIC 4924 · Vertical: Natural Gas Distribution (SIC 4924)

55.06USD+2.65% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

New Jersey Resources is a diversified energy services holding company that distributes natural gas through its regulated utility NJNG and invests in clean energy, storage and transport assets. It remains in focus because its regulated base, a capital plan of up to 5.2 billion USD through 2030 and a June 2026 rate filing outline the direction of the coming years.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, New Jersey Resources Corporation (NJR) stock was 55.06 USD (+2.65% on the day), with market capitalisation 5.6 bn USD, P/E 15.2 on diluted EPS of 3.62 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.48%, beta 0.01, 52-week range 44.59–60.05 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 258.0 m USD (+9.9% YoY), net income of 9.7 m USD, diluted EPS 0.10 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
5.6 bn USD
shares as of 31 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
15.2
Diluted EPS TTM 3.62 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
6.57%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
3.48%
DPS 12m 1.92
Beta (2y)
0.01
Volatility (1y) 19%
52-week range
44.5960.05

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
66.2
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
50.48 – 54.71
above the upper band · %B 1.08 · band width 8.0%
SMA 50 / 200
52.60 / 54.57
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.49 / 0.20
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+8.2%−1.1%+9.3 pp—
3 months−0.6%−0.5%−0.2 pp—
6 months+0.4%+4.4%−4.0 pp—
Year to date+19.4%+12.3%+7.1 pp—
1 year+22.8%+13.5%+9.2 pp+2.8%
3 years+27.8%+76.4%−48.6 pp+42.7%
5 years+40.7%+63.7%−22.9 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−16.1%
24 Jul 2026 → 28 Sept 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−29.1%
11 Apr 2023 → 02 Oct 2023
Compound annual growth (5y)
+7.1%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
258.0 m USD
+9.9% YoY
Net income
9.7 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
0.10
unavailable YoY
net / operating
3.8% / 12.4%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue265.7 m359.0 m569.2 m234.8 m188.3 m440.9 m641.4 m258.0 m
Operating income146.1 m189.6 m279.9 m-1.1 m40.4 m179.2 m301.0 m31.9 m
Depreciation & amortisation45.3 m45.3 m48.0 m47.0 m48.5 m49.6 m50.1 m53.5 m
Interest expense36.0 m33.9 m32.5 m31.7 m30.5 m35.7 m35.0 m35.2 m
Pre-tax income120.4 m167.3 m264.4 m-21.7 m16.5 m154.9 m282.3 m11.5 m
Income tax30.8 m37.4 m61.6 m-5.1 m3.1 m34.2 m66.2 m3.4 m
Net income91.1 m131.3 m204.3 m-15.1 m15.1 m122.5 m218.9 m9.7 m
Diluted EPS0.92 ≈1.312.02-0.150.15 ≈1.212.160.10
Operating cash flow64.5 m-9.0 m423.0 m ≈-28.9 m ≈81.2 m26.7 m562.6 m ≈-11.6 m ≈
Dividends paid41.6 m44.8 m45.0 m ≈45.1 m ≈45.2 m47.7 m47.9 m ≈47.9 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 26 percentile of its own 39-quarter history (min 10.9, median 17.8, max 46.4; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenueunavailable782.3 m833.7 m852.1 m1.2 bn1.1 bn1.2 bn1.4 bn
Revenue YoYunavailableunavailable+6.6%+2.2%+40.7%−7.3%+10.7%+9.9%
Net income233.4 m123.9 m163.0 m117.9 m274.9 m264.7 m289.8 m335.6 m
Net income YoY+76.8%−46.9%+31.5%−27.7%+133.2%−3.7%+9.5%+15.8%
Diluted EPS2.641.381.711.222.852.712.923.33
Diluted EPS YoY+73.7%−47.7%+23.9%−28.7%+133.6%−4.9%+7.7%+14.0%
net %unavailable15.8%19.6%13.8%22.9%23.8%23.6%24.8%
Free cash flow191.4 m-105.9 munavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Sept 2025

Cash
591.0 k USD
Financial debt
195.6 m USD
Net debt
195.0 m USD
Equity
2.4 bn USD
Total assets
7.6 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.08x
Current ratio
0.73x
ROE
14.6%
ROA
4.6%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Operating income
2023
407.0 m
2024
458.1 m
2025
508.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
152.9 m
2024
166.6 m
2025
188.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

EBITDA
2023
559.9 m ≈
2024
624.7 m ≈
2025
697.6 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025derived

Interest expense
2023
123.0 m
2024
130.3 m
2025
128.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Pre-tax income
2023
310.1 m
2024
369.4 m
2025
426.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Income tax
2023
49.3 m
2024
84.9 m
2025
97.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Net income
2023
264.7 m
2024
289.8 m
2025
335.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Diluted EPS
2023
2.71
2024
2.92
2025
3.33

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
97.6 m
2024
99.3 m
2025
100.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Dividend per share
2023
1.59
2024
1.71
2025
1.83

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
954.0 k
2024
1.0 m
2025
591.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Current assets
2023
532.1 m
2024
554.6 m
2025
569.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
77.0 k
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2023verified

Total assets
2023
6.5 bn
2024
7.0 bn
2025
7.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Accounts payable
2023
151.8 m
2024
169.2 m
2025
204.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Short-term debt
2023
252.1 m
2024
291.8 m
2025
195.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Current liabilities
2023
806.6 m
2024
887.8 m
2025
780.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Equity
2023
2.0 bn †
2024
2.2 bn †
2025
2.4 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
479.0 m
2024
427.4 m
2025
466.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Investing cash flow
2023
-538.6 m
2024
-569.1 m
2025
-568.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Financing cash flow
2023
59.7 m
2024
141.8 m
2025
102.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Dividends paid
2023
151.0 m
2024
165.1 m
2025
180.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Nov 2025verified

Share repurchases
2023
0
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2023verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
9.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
4.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
10.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
11.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
15.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
6.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
15.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
14.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
5.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
14.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
49.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
36.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
24.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
14.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
4.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
15.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
7.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
52.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
186.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
0.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
4.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
659.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
unavailable
input data missing
Free cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
FCF conversion
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion
87.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
5.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
5.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
15.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
15.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
6.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
2.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
3.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
7.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
10.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
3.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
3.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Risk

Altman Z
unavailable
input data missing

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 61 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

55.06 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 5.6 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
5.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
15.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
2.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
7.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
14.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
24.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
9.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
3.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

24/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 04 Aug 2026
verified 2207derived 172

Score by group

  • Valuation73
  • Returns48
  • Quality84
  • Balance sheet56
  • Growth35

Estimated value range

Low
42.35
USD per share
Mid
62.71
USD per share
High
74.98
USD per share
Price: 55.06 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: 13.9% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 12.2% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 23.98 – 88.36 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA67.80 – 88.36 (Mid 74.10)
    7 companies used · median multiple 10.2x · quartiles 9.4x – 12.1x
    ATO, CQP, LNG, MDU, NFG, NWN, SR
  • Peers: P/E42.35 – 74.98 (Mid 62.71)
    10 companies used · median multiple 17.3x · quartiles 11.7x – 20.7x
    ATO, CQP, EE, LNG, MDU, NFG, NWN, OGS, SR, VG
  • Dividend discount (DDM)23.98 – 32.25 (Mid 27.51)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Natural Gas Distribution (SIC 4924)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 61/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality15.3%90 (vs peers)13%
Net margin · Quality24.0%75 (vs peers)8%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth4.1%34 (on a fixed band)10%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth5.3%36 (on a fixed band)10%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet0.2x89 (vs peers)13%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet4.1x39 (on a fixed band)8%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.7x0 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation15.2x60 (vs peers)13%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation7.7x86 (vs peers)13%
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns3.4%48 (on a fixed band)8%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet56/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth35/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality84/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial48/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation73/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

NEW JERSEY RESOURCES CORPORATION (NJR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 9.9%; net margin 24.0%; ROE 14.5%; net debt/EBITDA 0.2x.

The estimated value range is 42.35–74.98 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 62.71 USD, the price of 55.06 USD leaves a potential of 13.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 12.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 61/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 15.3%
  • Net margin: 24.0%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 0.2x
  • EV/EBITDA: 7.7x

What contradicts it

  • Current ratio: 0.7x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Natural Gas Distribution (SIC 4924) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 14 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
15.2x
vertical median 17.3x
below median (−12.2%)
EV/EBITDA
7.7x
vertical median 10.2x
below median (−25.1%)
P/S
3.7x
vertical median 2.3x
above median (+57.9%)
P/B
2.1x
vertical median 1.6x
above median (+35.3%)
ROE
14.5%
vertical median 9.3%
above median (+56.1%)
Net margin
24.0%
vertical median 11.9%
above median (+101.1%)
EBIT margin
36.1%
vertical median 22.8%
above median (+58.2%)
Revenue YoY
9.9%
vertical median 12.4%
below median (−20.2%)
Net debt/EBITDA
0.2x
vertical median 3.0x
below median (−91.7%)
Dividend yield
3.5%
vertical median 2.5%
above median (+38.7%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
LNGCheniere Energy, Inc.59.6 bn20.345.7%13.1%+27.2%+40% / +60%
ATOAtmos Energy Corp29.8 bn21.09.8%28.5%+12.9%+0% / +55%
CQPCheniere Energy Partners, L.P.27.4 bn8.4—28.1%+23.6%+4% / −8%
NFGNational Fuel Gas Company7.3 bn10.619.6%26.9%+17.1%−7% / +51%
NJRNew Jersey Resources Corporation5.6 bn15.214.5%24.0%+9.9%+23% / +28%
SRSpire Inc.5.3 bn14.910.3%13.9%−4.5%+2% / +48%
OGSONE Gas, Inc.5.2 bn17.58.7%—+42.5%−2% / +43%
MDUMdu Resources Group Inc4.2 bn20.87.0%10.7%+6.7%−7% / +87%
NWNNorthwest Natural Holding Company2.2 bn17.18.3%9.7%+11.8%+4% / +40%
NFENew Fortress Energy Inc.1.2 bn—-533.9%-148.7%−36.2%+234% / −89%
SLNGStabilis Solutions, Inc.71.2 m—-14.0%-17.4%−6.9%−18% / −16%
CETYClean Energy Technologies, Inc.10.4 m—-76.3%-245.9%−63.8%−53% / −96%
VGVenture Global, Inc.—9.154.7%22.3%+176.9%+61% / unavailable
EEExcelerate Energy, Inc—26.8——+44.3%+22% / +105%
UGPUltrapar Holdings Inc.——16.5%1.8%+5.9%+36% / +10%

1- and 3-year price returns: for NJR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
32.31
Total return -39% · Per year -39%
57.13
Total return 7% · Per year 7%
86.06
Total return 61% · Per year 61%
3 years
31.08
Total return -36% · Per year -14%
61.87
Total return 24% · Per year 7%
102.38
Total return 100% · Per year 26%
5 years
29.90
Total return -33% · Per year -8%
67.00
Total return 41% · Per year 7%
121.78
Total return 147% · Per year 20%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 15.47
  • Net margin± 10.83
  • Annual revenue growth± 8.92
  • Annual dilution± 0.91

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

New Jersey Resources is a diversified energy services holding company that distributes natural gas through its regulated utility NJNG and invests in clean energy, storage and transport assets. It remains in focus because its regulated base, a capital plan of up to 5.2 billion USD through 2030 and a June 2026 rate filing outline the direction of the coming years 123.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The regulated utility base provides relatively predictable revenue through mechanisms such as the CIP that stabilise utility margin 1.
  • Diversification across four segments reduces dependence on any single activity and allows partial offset of weaker results 12.
  • Steady customer growth and a large capital plan support the regulated asset base 3.

Weaknesses

  • Quarterly results are seasonal and depend on weather, so revenue is concentrated in certain periods 1.
  • The CEV segment posted quarterly losses, and its contribution depends on occasional asset sale gains 23.
  • The company depends on third-party infrastructure for supply and transport, which limits control over deliveries 1.

Opportunities

  • The requested rate increases and a growing asset base could support revenue if the BPU approves them 3.
  • Energy efficiency programmes and SAVEGREEN investments could deepen customer relationships 3.
  • Strategic growth at S&T could add long-term transport and storage contracts 3.

Threats

  • Policies limiting gas in buildings could reduce long-term demand 1.
  • Changes to tax credit and REC programmes could affect CEV solar projects 1.
  • Price volatility and unusual weather could move ES results in a negative direction 12.

Risks

  • Tariff regulatory riskhigh

    BPU decisions on base rates and BGSS determine cost recovery, and an unfavourable decision could reduce NJNG's margin 13.

  • Environmental and MGP remediation riskmedium

    Obligations tied to former MGP sites can generate unexpected costs, and recovery depends on regulatory approval 1.

  • Weather and seasonality riskmedium

    Mild winters or cool summers can reduce revenue and raise working capital needs 1.

  • Solar project execution riskmedium

    Delays in permitting, grid interconnection and construction can affect the timing and returns of CEV projects 1.

  • Gas price market risklow

    Price fluctuations and changes in locational spreads can affect ES, which depends on optimising contracted assets 12.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • The regulated base and a capital plan of up to 5.2 billion USD could support NFEPS growth if tariffs are approved 3.
  • Results in the first nine months of fiscal 2026 and the raised lower end of guidance point to solid execution 23.
  • Segment diversification could limit the impact of weakness in any one area on total results 1.

What would break the thesis

  • If the BPU rejects or reduces the requested 157.6 million USD increase, revenue growth could be slower than expected 3.
  • ES results and seasonality can be hard to predict, which could produce weak quarters 12.
  • Policy changes on gas and solar programmes could reduce long-term prospects 1.

What to watch

  • BPU decision on the requested base rate increase and the bill reduction2026-2027
  • Development of fiscal 2026 NFEPS guidance and the final resultnext 10-K
  • ES contribution as gas price volatility evolvesQ1 2027
  • Commissioning of new CEV solar projects and their financing sources2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

NJR is a diversified energy services holding company whose principal business is distributing natural gas through the regulated utility New Jersey Natural Gas, which serves residential and commercial customers in six counties in New Jersey 1. The group also invests in clean energy projects, natural gas storage and transportation assets, and unregulated energy services through separate subsidiaries 1. Four reportable segments are disclosed, and NJNG remains the largest contributor to net income in the latest quarterly report 23.

For the fiscal year ended September 30 2025, the company reported net income of 335.6 million USD, compared with 289.8 million USD in the prior year 1. In the first nine months of fiscal 2026, net income reached 351.1 million USD, and management tightened its NFEPS guidance to a range of 3.52 to 3.62 USD per share 23. These figures suggest that results depend heavily on NJNG's regulated contribution and on gas price volatility within ES.

The CEV segment focuses on commercial solar projects, and the company reported about 537 MW of solar capacity in service as of June 30 2026 3. Through its investments, NJR targets 7 to 9 percent long-term NFEPS growth from a fiscal 2025 base of 2.83 USD per share 3. That target depends on tariff approvals, the continuation of renewable energy tax programs and project execution.

Segments

Natural Gas Distribution (NJNG)

NJNG served approximately 595,000 customers in six New Jersey counties as of June 30 2026 3. For fiscal 2025, system operating revenue was 1,061.4 million USD, and NJNG filed a base rate increase request of 157.6 million USD 13. The company says the June 2026 filings could reduce customer bills by 8.9 percent ahead of the 2026-2027 winter season 3.

Clean Energy Ventures (CEV)

CEV owns and operates commercial solar projects in several states, with about 479 MW in service on September 30 2025 and 537 MW on June 30 2026 13. Its net financial earnings in fiscal 2026 were affected by the absence of the gain from the sale of the residential solar portfolio in the prior period 23. Revenues depend on RECs, ITCs and state policy, which makes the segment sensitive to regulatory change 1.

Market context

NJR's main market is New Jersey, a suburban area close to New York City and Philadelphia, where gas competes with oil, electricity and propane 1. The BPU framework and the BGSS and CIP mechanisms stabilise utility margin but expose the company to policy decisions and to climate pressure on gas infrastructure 1. Gas price volatility and weather observed in the first nine months of fiscal 2026 can significantly influence ES and energy market revenues 23.

In solar, New Jersey is one of the largest solar markets in the U.S., with many firms competing in development, financing and construction 1. State programmes for SRECs, TRECs and the CSI programme set solar project revenues, and changes to them could affect project returns 1.

Trends

  • Electrification and limits on gas in buildingsheadwind

    Legislative initiatives that restrict gas equipment in new construction, such as those in New York, could reduce long-term growth in gas demand 1. The risk is more pronounced where climate policy advances quickly, and the company explicitly flags this pressure 1.

  • Customer growth and infrastructure investmenttailwind

    NJNG's customer count rose from about 589,000 on September 30 2025 to 595,000 on June 30 2026, and the group's capital plan targets significant utility investment 13. This supports the regulated asset base and predictable tariff-based revenue 3.

  • Gas price volatilitymixed

    Price volatility driven by colder weather created additional margin at ES and through BGSS, supporting fiscal 2026 results 23. The same fluctuations could reduce margins if price spreads reverse, which makes the outcome partly unpredictable 1.

  • Solar policy and tax creditsmixed

    CEV projects depend on federal ITCs and state REC programmes, and expiry or changes to these mechanisms could reduce project revenues 1. The company has used sale leaseback financing to preserve tax credit eligibility 2.

Competitive position

NJNG is not currently exposed to direct competition from other gas distribution utilities in its service territory, but it competes with oil, electricity and propane 1. The residential market has been opened to third-party suppliers, and on September 30 2025 more than 20,000 residential and commercial customers used the transportation service provided by third parties 1.

In solar, CEV competes with many firms active in development, financing and construction in a state market with many participants 1. In renewables and storage, competition comes from project developers and transport and storage operators 1.

  • Other New Jersey gas and electricity suppliers

    Competition comes from electricity and propane suppliers, and the source does not identify a directly competing listed company.

  • Commercial solar developers and builders

    Firms active in solar development, financing and construction compete for the same project contracts.

  • Gas pipeline and storage operators

    Transport and storage operators compete for capacity and contracts in the northeast region.

  • Independent third-party gas suppliers

    Third-party suppliers can attract customers who choose alternative suppliers after the residential market opened.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 04 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 28 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

  • Current report28 Oct 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report23 Oct 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report20 Aug 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report04 Aug 2026
  • Current report03 Aug 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report01 Jun 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report05 May 2026
  • Current report04 May 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report03 Feb 2026
  • Current report02 Feb 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 · SEC / New Jersey Resources Corporation · 20 Nov 2025
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / New Jersey Resources Corporation · 04 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / New Jersey Resources Corporation · 03 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.