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olivLaw · US equity research

Northern Trust Corporation NTRS

State Commercial Banks · SIC 6022 · Vertical: State Commercial Banks (SIC 6022)

170.66USD+0.89% · 1 dayClose 02 Nov 2026

Northern Trust Corporation is a major provider of wealth management, custody and banking solutions, with consolidated total assets of $177.1 billion at December 31, 2025. In the third quarter of 2026 it reported net income of $642.9 million and diluted EPS of $3.40, with notable items that management said should be considered. Its revenue depends mainly on fees linked to the value of client assets, so market conditions are a central factor.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 02 Nov 2026, Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) stock was 170.66 USD (+0.89% on the day), with market capitalisation 30.9 bn USD, P/E 13.2 on diluted EPS of 12.98 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.92%, beta 1.05, 52-week range 122.72–191.47 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.4 bn USD (+8.5% YoY), net income of 642.9 m USD (+40.5% YoY), diluted EPS 3.51 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
30.9 bn USD
shares as of 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
13.2
Diluted EPS TTM 12.98 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
7.60%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.92%
DPS 12m 3.28
Beta (2y)
1.05
Volatility (1y) 24%
52-week range
122.72191.47

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
50.3
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
162.96 – 173.01
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.77 · band width 6.0%
SMA 50 / 200
175.26 / 165.58
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.98 / -2.02
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−0.4%−2.3%+1.9 pp—
3 months−6.3%−0.8%−5.6 pp—
6 months+5.8%+4.7%+1.1 pp—
Year to date+24.9%+10.2%+14.8 pp—
1 year+32.6%+10.3%+22.4 pp+26.5%
3 years+139.2%+73.0%+66.2 pp+111.6%
5 years+36.8%+61.8%−25.0 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−15.1%
17 Aug 2026 → 14 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−52.8%
14 Jan 2022 → 25 Oct 2023
Compound annual growth (5y)
+6.5%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
1.4 bn USD
+8.5% YoY
Net income
642.9 m USD
+40.5% YoY
Diluted EPS
3.51
+53.3% YoY
net / operating
46.8% / unavailable

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue4.8 bn1.2 bn1.2 bn1.3 bn4.4 bn1.3 bn1.3 bn1.4 bn
Depreciation & amortisation182.9 m190.7 m195.7 m ≈195.8 m ≈196.9 m197.1 m198.4 m ≈199.5 m ≈
Pre-tax income594.2 m521.4 m564.8 m619.5 m633.8 m700.6 m1.1 bn796.5 m
Income tax138.8 m129.4 m143.5 m161.9 m167.8 m175.1 m272.5 m153.6 m
Net income455.4 m392.0 m421.3 m457.6 m466.0 m525.5 m792.2 m642.9 m
Diluted EPS2.30 ≈1.902.132.292.47 ≈2.714.28 ≈3.51 ≈
Operating cash flow-2.6 bn2.7 bn1.9 bn ≈525.8 m ≈388.4 m-320.0 m-64.9 m ≈1.8 bn ≈
Capex40.7 m12.4 m12.4 m ≈16.4 m ≈32.8 m9.4 m25.4 m ≈22.2 m ≈
Dividends paid147.6 m146.1 m144.0 m ≈151.9 m ≈149.6 m148.5 m146.9 m ≈159.6 m ≈
Share repurchases253.6 m287.2 m339.4 m ≈277.0 m ≈369.9 m358.9 m350.6 m ≈352.3 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 27 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 9.2, median 15.6, max 21.8; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue6.0 bn6.1 bn6.1 bn6.5 bn6.8 bn6.8 bn8.3 bn8.1 bn
Revenue YoY+10.9%+1.9%+0.5%+6.0%+4.6%+0.2%+22.4%−2.5%
Net income1.6 bn1.5 bn1.2 bn1.5 bn1.3 bn1.1 bn2.0 bn1.7 bn
Net income YoY+29.8%−4.1%−19.0%+27.8%−13.5%−17.1%+83.4%−14.5%
Diluted EPS6.646.635.467.146.145.089.778.74
Diluted EPS YoY+35.0%−0.2%−17.6%+30.8%−14.0%−17.3%+92.3%−10.5%
net %26.1%24.6%19.8%23.9%19.8%16.3%24.5%21.5%
Free cash flow1.7 bn2.4 bn1.8 bn1.3 bn2.3 bn2.5 bn-587.5 m5.5 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
5.9 bn USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
13.0 bn USD
Total assets
177.1 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
unavailable
ROE
13.5%
ROA
1.0%
FCF margin
67.5%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Income statement · USD

Net interest income
2023
2.0 bn
2024
2.2 bn
2025
2.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Net fee income
2023
4.8 bn
2024
6.1 bn
2025
5.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Non-interest expense
2023
5.3 bn
2024
5.6 bn
2025
5.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
1.5 bn
2024
2.7 bn
2025
2.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
1.1 bn
2024
2.0 bn
2025
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
5.08
2024
9.77
2025
8.74

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
3.00
2024
3.00
2025
3.10

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
4.8 bn
2024
4.7 bn
2025
5.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Loans
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2021verified

Total assets
2023
150.8 bn
2024
155.5 bn
2025
177.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Deposits
2023
116.2 bn
2024
122.5 bn
2025
142.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
138.9 bn
2024
142.7 bn
2025
164.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
11.9 bn †
2024
12.8 bn †
2025
13.0 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Dividends paid
2023
621.5 m
2024
602.3 m
2025
591.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
347.5 m
2024
937.8 m
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-2.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
6.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
5.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-14.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
9.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
7.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-10.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
12.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
9.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025

Profitability

Net margin
28.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
18.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
1.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
25.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
30.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
12.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
13.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
7.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
3.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
6.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Banking

Net interest margin
1.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cost-to-income
65.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Loan-to-deposit
unavailable
input data missing
NPL ratio
unavailable
input data missing
CET1 ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cost of risk
unavailable
input data missing

32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 48 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

170.66 USD

02 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 30.9 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
30.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
13.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
18.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
28.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-2.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
1.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

15/20 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 30 Sept 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 29 Oct 2026
verified 2525derived 249

Score by group

  • Growth83
  • Quality54
  • Returns17
  • Valuation25

Estimated value range

Low
90.84
USD per share
Mid
112.52
USD per share
High
138.78
USD per share
Price: 170.66 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -34.1% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -51.7% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 5 methods used · 4 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 40.74 – 202.77 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • Residual income87.73 – 91.78 (Mid 89.72)
  • Justified P/B150.78 – 202.77 (Mid 172.95)
  • Dividend discount (DDM)40.74 – 54.78 (Mid 46.73)
  • Peers: P/E166.14 – 202.15 (Mid 171.51)
    6 companies used · median multiple 13.2x · quartiles 12.8x – 15.6x
    BNY, CFG, EWBC, FITB, MTB, STT
  • Peers: P/B90.84 – 138.78 (Mid 112.52)
    6 companies used · median multiple 1.5x · quartiles 1.2x – 1.9x
    BNY, CFG, EWBC, FITB, MTB, STT
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: State Commercial Banks (SIC 6022)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 48/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROE · Quality18.4%100 (vs peers)20%
ROA · Quality1.4%74 (on a fixed band)8%
Cost-to-income · Quality65.8%0 (on a fixed band)13%
Net interest margin · Quality1.6%3 (on a fixed band)8%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth12.5%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth6.1%61 (on a fixed band)8%
NPL ratio · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Cost of risk · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Loan-to-deposit · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
P/B · Valuation2.3x0 (vs peers)13%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation13.2x50 (vs peers)13%
Dividend yield · Returns1.9%17 (vs peers)10%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
  • Growth83/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality54/100 · 4/4 factors with a value
  • Returns17/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
  • Valuation25/100 · 2/2 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

NORTHERN TRUST CORPORATION (NTRS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: net interest income 2.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -2.5%; net margin 28.8%; ROE 18.4%.

The estimated value range is 90.84–138.78 USD per share (median of 5 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 112.52 USD, the price of 170.66 USD leaves a potential of -34.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -51.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 48/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROE: 18.4%
  • ROA: 1.4%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 12.5%

What contradicts it

  • Cost-to-income: 65.8%
  • Net interest margin: 1.6%
  • P/B: 2.3x
  • Dividend yield: 1.9%
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): NPL ratio, Cost of risk, Loan-to-deposit.

Versus the vertical median

State Commercial Banks (SIC 6022) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies

Only companies with a capitalisation between 3.8 bn and 242.7 bn (within 8× of the company's); 75 of the vertical were left out.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
13.2x
vertical median 13.2x
at median
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
3.7x
vertical median 4.0x
below median (−8.4%)
P/B
2.3x
vertical median 1.5x
above median (+51.7%)
ROE
18.4%
vertical median 10.7%
above median (+71.7%)
Net margin
28.8%
vertical median 25.4%
above median (+13.2%)
EBIT margin
—
vertical median —
Revenue YoY
-2.5%
vertical median 7.3%
below median (−133.9%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
1.9%
vertical median 2.4%
below median (−19.5%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
BNYThe Bank Of New York Mellon Corporation99.4 bn16.215.0%32.6%+7.8%+32% / +206%
FITBFifth Third Bancorp49.9 bn18.48.4%—−2.0%+26% / +90%
STTState Street Corporation46.1 bn13.613.1%23.8%+7.3%+42% / +133%
MTBM&T Bank Corp32.4 bn11.710.7%178.1%+7.5%+18% / +75%
NTRSNorthern Trust Corporation30.9 bn13.218.4%28.8%−2.5%+33% / +139%
CFGCitizens Financial Group Inc27.2 bn12.88.9%25.4%+5.6%+20% / +138%
EWBCEast West Bancorp, Inc.18.2 bn12.816.6%—+4.4%+25% / +112%
BNSBank Of Nova Scotia——9.2%20.6%+12.1%+36% / +110%

1- and 3-year price returns: for NTRS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
105.88
Total return -36% · Per year -36%
187.05
Total return 12% · Per year 12%
281.55
Total return 68% · Per year 68%
3 years
106.19
Total return -33% · Per year -12%
210.75
Total return 30% · Per year 9%
347.82
Total return 112% · Per year 29%
5 years
106.50
Total return -30% · Per year -7%
237.46
Total return 51% · Per year 9%
429.69
Total return 168% · Per year 22%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 52.69
  • Net margin± 36.88
  • Annual revenue growth± 29.80
  • Annual dilution± 3.10

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 21 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).

In brief

Northern Trust Corporation is a major provider of wealth management, custody and banking solutions, with consolidated total assets of $177.1 billion at December 31, 2025 1. In the third quarter of 2026 it reported net income of $642.9 million and diluted EPS of $3.40, with notable items that management said should be considered 2. Its revenue depends mainly on fees linked to the value of client assets, so market conditions are a central factor.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has a trusted brand, a broad base of assets under management and long-standing relationships with institutional and private clients, which support recurring revenue 1.
  • Its revenue mix is dominated by fees rather than loans, a large share of income coming from servicing activity 1.
  • Management describes the capital position as strong, which enabled substantial capital returns to shareholders in 2026 2.

Weaknesses

  • Revenue depends heavily on the value of assets, so market declines can quickly affect fees 1.
  • Quarterly results can be significantly affected by notable items such as gains on sales or Visa exchange offers, which makes profit harder to compare 2.
  • The company is subject to extensive regulation and heightened supervision, which raises compliance costs 1.

Opportunities

  • Growing household wealth among families and business owners could expand the client base of the Wealth Management segment 1.
  • Investment in technology and artificial intelligence could improve operating efficiency and open new services 1.
  • Developing scalable, fee-based income could reduce reliance on net interest income over time 1.

Threats

  • Economic crises, geopolitical instability or sovereign debt stress could negatively affect markets and the company's revenue 1.
  • Regulatory changes and supervisory pressure could raise costs or restrict activities 1.
  • Competition from financial technology companies and traditional rivals could pressure margins 1.

Risks

  • Dependence on fees and marketshigh

    Fee revenue depends on the value of assets and transaction volumes, exposing the company to market volatility and changing investor preferences 1.

  • Regulatory riskhigh

    The company faces extensive supervision, and changes in laws or enforcement actions could have a material effect on its business 1.

  • Operational and cyber riskmedium

    Reliance on information technology systems and third-party vendors could lead to losses if systems fail or are breached 1.

  • Interest rate riskmedium

    Changes in interest rates may affect margins, the value of portfolio securities and client deposit levels 1.

  • Credit and counterparty risklow

    Loan defaults or the weakness of significant counterparties could lead to losses and additional provisions for credit losses 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Recent results show higher trust-fee income and disciplined cost management, and continued growth in client assets could support revenue over the medium term 2.
  • A strong capital position has allowed substantial capital returns to shareholders, and a solid balance sheet could provide flexibility in difficult periods 2.
  • A diversified model with two complementary segments could help the company perform across different economic environments 2.

What would break the thesis

  • Revenue remains tied to market values, and a market correction could quickly reduce fees and profit 1.
  • Quarterly profit has been influenced by non-recurring gains, and without them the rate of profit growth could be more modest 2.
  • Regulatory pressure and competition from financial technology could raise costs and limit margins over the long term 1.

What to watch

  • Development of assets under custody and administration and of fee income from servicingQ4 2026
  • Trend in net interest margin and net interest incomeQ4 2026
  • Annual report and any changes to dividends or share repurchase programs2027
  • Status of long-term debt and clean holding company requirements and the Bank's resolution plan2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 21 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).

The business

The company runs two client-focused reporting segments, Asset Servicing and Wealth Management, supported by an Asset Management business whose revenue and expenses are fully allocated to those segments 1. As a Category II banking organization it is subject to enhanced prudential standards and extensive supervision by the Federal Reserve Board and the FDIC 1. Dividends from the Bank are a significant source of funds for the holding company, so its capacity to pay dividends depends in part on the Bank 1.

For fiscal 2025 the company reported total revenue of $8086.4 million, net income of $1736.9 million and a return on average common equity of 14.4% 1. In the third quarter of 2026 trust, investment and other servicing fees reached $1373.0 million, and total assets under management stood at $1963.0 billion at September 30, 2026 2.

Segments

Asset Servicing

Asset Servicing provides custody, fund administration, investment operations outsourcing, securities lending and cash management to corporate and public retirement funds, foundations, sovereign wealth funds and other institutional investors 1. At December 31, 2025, the segment had assets under custody/administration of $17.4 trillion and assets under management of $1.3 trillion 1. Trust, investment and other servicing fees in the segment rose 6% in fiscal 2025, helped by favorable markets and net new business 1.

Wealth Management

Wealth Management serves high-net-worth individuals and families, business owners, retirees and privately held businesses with trust, investment management, financial consulting and private banking, including through its Global Family Office unit 1. Assets under management in the segment were $507.2 billion at December 31, 2025 1. In the third quarter of 2026 Global Family Office fees rose from the prior-year quarter, reflecting favorable markets and asset inflows 2.

Market context

Net interest income is a smaller part of revenue but is sensitive to Federal Reserve interest rate policy, which affects the net interest margin and funding costs 1. Management described market conditions as constructive in the third quarter of 2026, although a sharper market downturn could weigh on fee income 2.

Trends

  • Growth in client assetstailwind

    Assets under custody and administration rose in the third quarter of 2026 from the prior year, driven by favorable markets and net client inflows 2. If this continues, it could support the company's recurring fee income.

  • Fee dependence and market volatilityheadwind

    Revenue depends on the value of client assets, so market declines or outflows could reduce fees 1. This is a structural risk of the business model.

  • Interest rate environmentmixed

    Interest rates affect both net interest income and the value of certain securities and funding costs 1. Higher rates may improve the margin but can also weigh on portfolio values, depending on conditions.

  • Cost discipline and efficiencytailwind

    In the third quarter of 2026 noninterest expense fell from the prior quarter, and management pointed to disciplined expense management 2. If this discipline holds, it could support profit margins.

Competitive position

Northern Trust competes with other custodial banks, deposit-taking institutions, asset management firms, benefits consultants, trust companies, investment banks, insurers and financial technology companies 1. Competition is most visible on price, technology and the ability to offer specialized solutions to targeted client segments.

The company cites its trusted brand, deep expertise, tailored technology, proven relationships and strong balance sheet as its differentiators, and its strategy emphasizes scalable fee-based income 1. If the competitive landscape shifts quickly, the company could need to invest more heavily in technology and innovation 1.

  • Other custodial banks

    Direct competitors in custody and administration services for institutional investors, named in the annual report as part of the competitive landscape.

  • Asset management firms

    Competitors in investment management for institutional and private clients that may offer products similar to those of the management division.

  • Trust companies and investment counseling firms

    Competitors in wealth and estate administration and advisory services for families and foundations.

  • Financial technology companies

    Software and data providers that may compete with the company's digital platforms and services.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 25 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 29 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

  • Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
  • Current report21 Oct 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report20 Oct 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report29 Sept 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report03 Aug 2026
    Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report30 Jul 2026
  • Current report22 Jul 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report30 Apr 2026
  • Current report22 Apr 2026
    Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report21 Apr 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Northern Trust Corporation · 24 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Northern Trust Corporation · 21 Oct 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.

Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS): stock, results, valuation and forecast · olivLaw