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olivLaw · US equity research

Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. OPXS

Optical Instruments & Lenses · SIC 3827 · Vertical: Optical Instruments & Lenses (SIC 3827)

8.08USD−9.32% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

Optex Systems Holdings makes optical sighting systems and assemblies for the U.S. Department of Defense, installed on military vehicles such as the Abrams, Bradley and Stryker. Revenue grew in fiscal 2025, but in the first nine months of fiscal 2026 it fell as contract awards and deliveries slipped, while margins improved.

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (OPXS) stock was 8.08 USD (−9.32% on the day), with market capitalisation 56.2 m USD, P/E 14.8 on diluted EPS of 0.55 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.90, 52-week range 8.08–16.09 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 9.7 m USD (−12.4% YoY), net income of 1.3 m USD (−15.2% YoY), diluted EPS 0.18 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
56.2 m USD
shares as of 10 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
14.8
Diluted EPS TTM 0.55 · TTM to 28 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
6.77%
TTM to 28 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.90
Volatility (1y) 58%
52-week range
8.0816.09

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
20.4
oversold (≤ 30)
Bollinger (20, 2)
8.55 – 10.47
below the lower band · %B -0.25 · band width 20.2%
SMA 50 / 200
10.01 / 11.79
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.40 / -0.31
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−20.8%−1.1%−19.7 pp—
3 months−33.0%−0.5%−32.5 pp—
6 months−24.6%+4.4%−28.9 pp—
Year to date−43.0%+12.3%−55.3 pp—
1 year−52.5%+13.5%−66.1 pp+4.2%
3 years+106.1%+76.4%+29.7 pp+81.4%
5 years+310.2%+63.7%+246.5 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−49.8%
06 Nov 2025 → 05 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−53.3%
21 Oct 2025 → 05 Nov 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
+32.6%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 28 Jun 2026

Revenue
9.7 m USD
−12.4% YoY
Net income
1.3 m USD
−15.2% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.18
−18.2% YoY
net / operating
13.2% / 14.3%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue9.4 m8.2 m10.7 m11.1 m11.3 m9.1 m9.6 m9.7 m
Cost of revenue7.0 m6.1 m7.4 m7.9 m7.9 m7.0 m6.2 m6.4 m
Gross profit2.4 m2.1 m3.4 m3.2 m3.4 m2.1 m3.4 m3.3 m
Operating income1.3 m916.0 k2.2 m1.9 m2.1 m149.0 k1.7 m1.4 m
Depreciation & amortisation146.0 k129.0 k126.0 k131.0 k129.0 k90.0 k97.0 k107.0 k
Interest expense15.0 k13.0 k——-35.0 k———
Pre-tax income1.3 m903.0 k2.2 m1.9 m1.3 m197.0 k1.7 m1.4 m
Income tax269.0 k59.0 k470.0 k401.0 k273.0 k-45.0 k358.0 k139.0 k
Net income1.0 m844.0 k1.8 m1.5 m1.0 m242.0 k1.3 m1.3 m
Diluted EPS0.15 ≈0.120.260.220.15 ≈0.030.190.18
Operating cash flow753.0 k2.8 m1.2 m ≈1.4 m ≈1.6 m-92.0 k-1.2 m ≈2.3 m ≈
Capex208.0 k319.0 k134.0 k ≈0 ≈41.0 k456.0 k393.0 k ≈207.0 k ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 59 percentile of its own 32-quarter history (min 2.2, median 14.0, max 64.7; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue20.9 m24.5 m25.9 m18.2 m22.4 m25.7 m34.0 m41.3 m
Revenue YoY+12.4%+17.6%+5.5%−29.6%+22.8%+14.6%+32.5%+21.6%
Net income1.4 m5.7 m1.8 m2.1 m1.3 m2.3 m3.8 m5.1 m
Net income YoYunavailable+306.6%−67.8%+16.8%−39.8%+76.4%+66.5%+36.6%
Diluted EPS0.110.450.140.180.160.340.550.74
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable+309.1%−68.9%+28.6%−11.1%+112.5%+61.8%+34.5%
net %6.7%23.1%7.0%11.7%5.7%8.8%11.1%12.5%
Free cash flow872.0 k17.0 k3.8 m207.0 k1.8 m-672.0 k1.1 m6.4 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 28 Sept 2025

Cash
6.4 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
24.3 m USD
Total assets
30.1 m USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
5.64x
ROE
23.9%
ROA
18.5%
FCF margin
15.6%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
25.7 m
2024
34.0 m
2025
41.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025verified

Cost of revenue
2023
19.0 m
2024
24.5 m
2025
29.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025verified

Gross profit
2023
6.6 m
2024
9.5 m
2025
12.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025verified

Operating income
2023
2.8 m
2024
4.8 m
2025
7.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
345.0 k
2024
487.0 k
2025
515.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025verified

EBITDA
2023
3.1 m ≈
2024
5.3 m ≈
2025
7.6 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025derived

Interest expense
2023
55.0 k
2024
47.0 k
2025
-23.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025verified

Pre-tax income
2023
2.7 m
2024
4.8 m
2025
6.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025verified

Income tax
2023
469.0 k
2024
1.0 m
2025
1.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025verified

Net income
2023
2.3 m
2024
3.8 m
2025
5.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.34
2024
0.55
2025
0.74

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
6.7 m
2024
6.8 m
2025
6.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
1.2 m
2024
1.0 m
2025
6.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025verified

Receivables
2023
3.6 m
2024
3.8 m
2025
4.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025verified

Inventories
2023
12.2 m
2024
14.9 m
2025
14.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025verified

Current assets
2023
17.5 m
2024
20.1 m
2025
25.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
998.0 k
2024
1.3 m
2025
1.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
—
2024
951.0 k
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Dec 2024verified

Total assets
2023
22.2 m
2024
25.5 m
2025
30.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025verified

Accounts payable
2023
810.0 k
2024
1.2 m
2025
1.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025verified

Current liabilities
2023
4.1 m
2024
5.0 m
2025
4.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025verified

Total liabilities
2023
7.4 m
2024
6.7 m
2025
5.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025verified

Equity
2023
14.9 m †
2024
18.8 m †
2025
24.3 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-296.0 k
2024
1.8 m
2025
6.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025verified

Capex
2023
376.0 k
2024
681.0 k
2025
494.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025verified

Free cash flow
2023
-672.0 k ≈
2024
1.1 m ≈
2025
6.4 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-376.0 k
2024
-1.7 m
2025
-504.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025verified

Financing cash flow
2023
942.0 k
2024
-245.0 k
2025
-1.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Dec 2025verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
21.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
22.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
9.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
47.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
36.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
58.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
23.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
34.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
66.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
39.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
485.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
30.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
14.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
13.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
Net margin
9.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
FCF margin
3.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
15.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
ROA
12.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
18.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
229.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
7.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
2.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
1.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
2.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
1.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
1.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
37.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
44.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
39 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
205 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
20 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
223 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
56.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
14.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
14.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
6.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
P/B
2.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
P/S
1.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
38.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
FCF yield
2.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

Risk

Altman Z
10.00
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

8.08 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 56.2 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
56.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
14.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
P/B
2.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
15.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Net margin
9.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
21.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing

Coverage and freshness

28/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 28 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 28 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 10 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 11 Aug 2026
verified 2115derived 195

Score by group

58% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
11.76
USD per share
Mid
19.27
USD per share
High
20.71
USD per share
Price: 8.08 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 138.5% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 58.1% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 11.76 – 20.71 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/E11.76 – 20.71 (Mid 19.27)
    3 companies used · median multiple 35.2x · quartiles 21.5x – 37.8x
    COHR, KLAC, NVMI
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Optical Instruments & Lenses (SIC 3827)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality9.8%33 (vs peers)11%
FCF conversion · Quality37.4%11 (on a fixed band)11%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth22.7%100 (on a fixed band)14%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth66.6%100 (on a fixed band)14%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet229.2x100 (on a fixed band)11%
Current ratio · Balance sheet7.1x100 (on a fixed band)7%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation14.8x69 (on a fixed band)18%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation2.6%32 (on a fixed band)14%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality22/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation53/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

OPTEX SYSTEMS HOLDINGS, INC. (OPXS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-28.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 41.3 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 21.6%; net margin 9.8%; ROE 15.3%.

The estimated value range is 11.76–20.71 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 19.27 USD, the price of 8.08 USD leaves a potential of 138.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 58.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 22.7%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 66.6%
  • Interest coverage: 229.2x
  • Current ratio: 7.1x
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • FCF conversion: 37.4%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Optical Instruments & Lenses (SIC 3827) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 6 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
14.8x
vertical median 37.8x
below median (−61.0%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
1.4x
vertical median 6.8x
below median (−79.3%)
P/B
2.0x
vertical median 5.6x
below median (−63.8%)
ROE
15.3%
vertical median 10.0%
above median (+53.4%)
Net margin
9.8%
vertical median 11.2%
below median (−12.8%)
EBIT margin
13.2%
vertical median 10.6%
above median (+24.9%)
Revenue YoY
21.6%
vertical median 13.6%
above median (+58.3%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 0.0%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
KLACKla Corporation195.2 bn7.891.4%36.2%+11.7%+27% / +175%
COHRCoherent Corp.38.4 bn40.511.2%12.2%+22.5%+19% / +430%
NVMINova Ltd.8.2 bn35.223.1%29.4%+31.0%−10% / +118%
CAMTCamtek Ltd.4.2 bn88.48.7%10.2%+15.6%−13% / +45%
OPTXSyntec Optics Holdings, Inc.151.7 m—-11.6%-8.3%−1.3%+118% / −36%
OPXSOptex Systems Holdings, Inc.56.2 m14.815.3%9.8%+21.6%−53% / +106%
MSAIMultiSensor AI Holdings, Inc.6.7 m—-46.5%-141.7%−25.0%−88% / −99%

1- and 3-year price returns: for OPXS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
5.39
Total return -33% · Per year -33%
9.48
Total return 17% · Per year 17%
14.23
Total return 76% · Per year 76%
3 years
6.39
Total return -21% · Per year -8%
12.54
Total return 55% · Per year 16%
20.49
Total return 154% · Per year 36%
5 years
7.58
Total return -6% · Per year -1%
16.59
Total return 105% · Per year 15%
29.50
Total return 265% · Per year 30%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 3.14
  • Net margin± 2.20
  • Annual revenue growth± 1.64
  • Annual dilution± 0.18

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Optex Systems Holdings makes optical sighting systems and assemblies for the U.S. Department of Defense, installed on military vehicles such as the Abrams, Bradley and Stryker. Revenue grew in fiscal 2025, but in the first nine months of fiscal 2026 it fell as contract awards and deliveries slipped, while margins improved.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company holds a well-established position as a supplier of optical systems for U.S. military vehicles and has a clear base of government customers 1.
  • The balance sheet is solid, with cash on hand and no debt drawn on the revolving credit facility, giving financial flexibility 3.
  • Gross margins improved in fiscal 2026, pointing to operational efficiency and better pricing 3.

Weaknesses

  • Dependence on government contracts and single-source suppliers for most materials makes the company vulnerable to delays 1.
  • Revenue fell in the first nine months of fiscal 2026 and new orders declined significantly 3.
  • The company depends on a few key people and has a thin management bench with limited succession planning 1.

Opportunities

  • Pending quotations for new products and expected laser filter contracts could support a revenue recovery 3.
  • Sales to foreign governments and expansion into commercial night vision applications could diversify the customer base 1.
  • Demand for precision optical systems could rise if regional conflicts persist 1.

Threats

  • Federal budget delays and continuing resolutions can postpone contracts and reduce quarterly revenue 13.
  • Rising competition in periscope categories could pressure prices and market share 3.
  • Raw material costs and supply chain disruptions can erode margins on fixed-price contracts 1.

Risks

  • Dependence on government contractshigh

    Most revenue comes from contracts with the U.S. government or prime contractors, which can be reduced or reassigned after budget changes 1.

  • Single-source suppliershigh

    Most components are bought from single-source suppliers, and a problem at one supplier can delay deliveries and raise costs 1.

  • Fixed-price contractsmedium

    Fixed-price contracts limit the company's ability to recover unexpected costs, especially when raw material prices rise 1.

  • Delivery delaysmedium

    Deliveries postponed for two key customers reduced third-quarter revenue and could affect the following quarter 3.

  • Leadership transitionlow

    The change of chief executive and the costs of the transition could disrupt strategy and execution in the near term 13.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If fiscal 2026 guidance holds and the expected contracts materialise, revenue could return to the announced range, supported by rising gross margins 3.
  • A balance sheet with no drawn credit line and available cash gives room to invest in capacity and new products 3.
  • Quotations for new products above 24 million USD could open new revenue sources if they convert into contracts 3.

What would break the thesis

  • If budget delays and delivery slips recur, revenue could stay below guidance and new orders could keep falling 3.
  • Rising competition in periscopes could reduce market share in standard products, an important part of sales 3.
  • Reliance on single-source suppliers and fixed-price contracts could limit margins if material costs rise again 1.

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: OPXS) manufactures optical sighting systems and assemblies, primarily for U.S. Department of Defense applications, and also for foreign governments and commercial customers 13. Its products are installed on military land vehicles such as the Abrams, Bradley and Stryker and are delivered both directly to the armed services and to defense prime contractors 1. The company operates through its subsidiary Optex Systems, Inc. and acts as both prime and sub-prime contractor to the DoD 2.

External revenue was 41.3 million USD in fiscal 2025, up 21.6% from the prior year 1. For fiscal 2026 the company reiterated revenue guidance of 43-45 million USD 3. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026 revenue was 9.7 million USD, below the prior year, due to delayed deliveries 3.

Leadership changed recently: in December 2025 the President took on the additional role of Chief Executive Officer, while the former CEO remained as Chairman of the Board 1. The company also announced new orders, including a 2.3 million USD contract for optical sub-assemblies 1.

Segments

Optex Systems Richardson

The Richardson segment in Texas produces periscopes, sighting systems and optical accessories, with external revenue of 23.8 million USD in fiscal 2025 and a gross margin of 25.5% 1. It is the largest revenue contributor and benefited from improved factory efficiency 13.

Applied Optics Center Dallas

The Applied Optics Center in Dallas produces laser filters, optical coatings and assemblies, with external revenue of 17.6 million USD in fiscal 2025 and a gross margin of 32.0% 1. This segment has higher margins but a smaller share of total sales 1.

Market context

The core market is U.S. military procurement, where funding depends on the annual congressional budget and appropriations process. Delays in approving the budget and periods under continuing resolutions can postpone contracts, a factor that affected the third quarter of fiscal 2026 13. The company also cites foreign military demand as a diversification opportunity 1.

Demand for precision optics continues to rise with regional conflicts, especially for observation and situational awareness applications 1. The company also pursues commercial and consumer night vision markets, which remain a developing direction 1.

Competitive position

The company notes increased competition in several periscope categories, which has reduced demand for its standard products 3. Competition also comes from other large defense contractors in the same area, which compete for the same skilled workforce 1.

The company differentiates itself through its quality and credibility as a strategic supplier and its specialized optical manufacturing capability 1. Reliance on single-source suppliers for most materials, however, is a competitive weakness 1.

  • General Dynamics Land SystemsGD

    Prime contractor for military land vehicles and a customer of the company, but also a possible competitor for subassemblies 1.

  • BAE Systems

    Defense contractor that buys periscopes and optical systems from the company and may produce some components in-house 1.

  • Raytheon

    Large defense contractor named as a sub-prime partner and a competitor for sighting system contracts 2.

  • Leonardo DRS

    Defense contractor from which the current President came, active in the same military systems sector 1.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-09-28 · SEC / Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. · 17 Dec 2025
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-28 · SEC / Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. · 11 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. · 11 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.