olivLaw · US equity research
Seagate Technology Holdings plc STX
Computer Storage Devices · SIC 3572 · Vertical: Computer Storage Devices (SIC 3572)
Seagate Technology Holdings plc is a major provider of mass-capacity data storage, with HDDs and storage systems aimed mainly at data centers. Revenue in fiscal 2026 reached about 12.2 billion USD, up 34%, with a gross margin of 46%. For fiscal Q1 2027 the company guided to revenue of 4.1 billion USD.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 03 Nov 2026, Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) stock was 606.38 USD (+2.13% on the day), with market capitalisation 139.2 bn USD, P/E 31.9 on diluted EPS of 19.04 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.49%, beta 1.73, 52-week range 237.49–1,094.04 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q1 2027): revenue of 4.2 bn USD (+61.0% YoY), net income of 1.8 bn USD (+220.8% YoY), diluted EPS 7.59 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 34.9
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 571.81 – 805.18
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.15 · band width 33.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 790.20 / 695.36
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -51.51 / -48.60
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −28.6% | −2.0% | −26.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −28.3% | −2.2% | −26.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −21.4% | +4.3% | −25.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +120.2% | +10.6% | +109.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +128.3% | +10.5% | +117.9 pp | +112.7% |
| 3 years | +738.9% | +73.7% | +665.3 pp | +216.3% |
| 5 years | +536.3% | +61.7% | +474.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q1 2027 · 02 Oct 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.3 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.2 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn |
| Research & development | 184.0 m | 180.0 m | 179.0 m | 186.0 m | 187.0 m | 194.0 m | 188.0 m | 200.0 m |
| SG&A | 139.0 m | 139.0 m | 154.0 m | 144.0 m | 143.0 m | 143.0 m | 147.0 m | 159.0 m |
| Operating income | 488.0 m | 431.0 m | 568.0 m | 694.0 m | 843.0 m | 998.0 m | 1.6 bn | 2.1 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 63.0 m ≈ | 63.0 m ≈ | 61.0 m | 72.0 m | 68.0 m ≈ | 66.0 m ≈ | 70.0 m | 76.0 m |
| Interest expense | 84.0 m | 77.0 m | 75.0 m | 80.0 m | 72.0 m | 68.0 m | 64.0 m | 41.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 350.0 m | 355.0 m | 492.0 m | 614.0 m | 707.0 m | 864.0 m | 1.5 bn | 2.0 bn |
| Income tax | 14.0 m | 15.0 m | 4.0 m | 65.0 m | 114.0 m | 116.0 m | 211.0 m | 221.0 m |
| Net income | 336.0 m | 340.0 m | 488.0 m | 549.0 m | 593.0 m | 748.0 m | 1.3 bn | 1.8 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 1.55 | 1.57 | 2.25 ≈ | 2.43 | 2.60 | 3.27 | 5.58 ≈ | 7.59 |
| Operating cash flow | 221.0 m ≈ | 259.0 m ≈ | 508.0 m | 532.0 m | 723.0 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn | 1.7 bn |
| Capex | 71.0 m ≈ | 43.0 m ≈ | 83.0 m | 105.0 m | 116.0 m ≈ | 161.0 m ≈ | 187.0 m | 211.0 m |
| Dividends paid | 148.0 m ≈ | 152.0 m ≈ | 153.0 m | 153.0 m | 154.0 m ≈ | 161.0 m ≈ | 166.0 m | 168.0 m |
| Share repurchases | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | 29.0 m | 0 ≈ | 30.0 m ≈ | 117.0 m | 400.0 m |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 82 percentile of its own 39-quarter history (min 6.6, median 16.2, max 70.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10.4 bn | 10.5 bn | 10.7 bn | 11.7 bn | 7.4 bn | 6.6 bn | 9.1 bn | 12.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | −7.1% | +1.1% | +1.6% | +9.2% | −36.7% | −11.3% | +38.9% | +34.1% |
| Net income | 2.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | -529.0 m | 335.0 m | 1.5 bn | 3.2 bn |
| Net income YoY | +70.2% | −50.1% | +30.9% | +25.5% | −132.1% | unavailable | +338.5% | +116.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 7.06 | 3.79 | 5.36 | 7.36 | -2.56 | 1.58 | 6.77 | 13.90 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +74.3% | −46.3% | +41.4% | +37.3% | −134.8% | unavailable | +328.5% | +105.3% |
| net % | 19.4% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 14.1% | -7.2% | 5.1% | 16.1% | 26.1% |
| Free cash flow | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 626.0 m | 664.0 m | 818.0 m | 3.1 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 03 Jul 2026
- Cash
- 1.7 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 3.6 bn USD
- Net debt
- 1.9 bn USD
- Equity
- 2.2 bn USD
- Total assets
- 10.0 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 1.65x
- Current ratio
- 1.67x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 35.4%
- FCF margin
- 25.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10.7 bn | 11.7 bn | 7.4 bn | 6.6 bn | 9.1 bn | 12.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 7.8 bn | 8.2 bn | 6.0 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.9 bn | 6.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 2.9 bn ≈ | 3.5 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 3.2 bn ≈ | 5.6 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026derived |
| Research & development | 903.0 m | 941.0 m | 797.0 m | 654.0 m | 724.0 m | 755.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| SG&A | 502.0 m | 559.0 m | 491.0 m | 460.0 m | 561.0 m | 577.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Operating income | 1.5 bn | 2.0 bn | -342.0 m | 452.0 m | 1.9 bn | 4.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 397.0 m | 451.0 m | 513.0 m | 264.0 m | 251.0 m | 276.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 1.9 bn ≈ | 2.4 bn ≈ | 171.0 m ≈ | 716.0 m ≈ | 2.1 bn ≈ | 4.4 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 220.0 m | 249.0 m | 313.0 m | 332.0 m | 321.0 m | 284.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.3 bn | 1.7 bn | -496.0 m | 445.0 m | 1.5 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Income tax | 34.0 m | 30.0 m | 33.0 m | 110.0 m | 44.0 m | 506.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Net income | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | -529.0 m | 335.0 m | 1.5 bn | 3.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 5.36 | 7.36 | -2.56 | 1.58 | 6.77 | 13.90 | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 245.0 m | 224.0 m | 207.0 m | 212.0 m | 217.0 m | 229.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.66 | 2,770,000.00 | 2.80 | 2.80 | 2.86 | 2.94 | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.2 bn | 615.0 m | 786.0 m | 1.4 bn | 891.0 m | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 621.0 m | 429.0 m | 959.0 m | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Current assets | 3.8 bn | 4.0 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.7 bn | 5.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 29.0 m | 9.0 m | 0 | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2023verified |
| Total assets | 8.7 bn | 8.9 bn | 7.6 bn | 7.7 bn | 8.0 bn | 10.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.7 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 245.0 m | 584.0 m | 63.0 m | 479.0 m | 0 | 185.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 4.9 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.0 bn | 3.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 2.9 bn | 3.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 8.0 bn | 8.8 bn | 8.8 bn | 9.2 bn | 8.5 bn | 7.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Equity | 631.0 m † | 109.0 m † | -1.2 bn † | -1.5 bn † | -453.0 m † | 2.2 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 942.0 m | 918.0 m | 1.1 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Capex | 498.0 m | 381.0 m | 316.0 m | 254.0 m | 265.0 m | 569.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | 626.0 m ≈ | 664.0 m ≈ | 818.0 m ≈ | 3.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -466.0 m | -352.0 m | 217.0 m | 126.0 m | -276.0 m | -525.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -1.7 bn | -1.9 bn | -988.0 m | -473.0 m | -1.3 bn | -2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 649.0 m | 610.0 m | 582.0 m | 585.0 m | 600.0 m | 634.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 2.0 bn | 1.8 bn | 408.0 m | 0 | 0 | 176.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 58 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 139.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet77
- Valuation36
- Quality65
- Growth69
- Returns48
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 234.38 – 479.51 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)311.43 – 479.51 (Mid 376.87)WACC 9.2% · starting FCFF 4.4 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 38.9%
- Peers: EV/Sales234.38 – 441.57 (Mid 350.40)3 companies used · median multiple 5.9x · quartiles 4.0x – 7.4xNTAP, QMCO, WDC
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 58/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin · Quality | 50.4% | 26 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EBIT margin · Quality | 39.6% | 80 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF margin · Quality | 30.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 18.2% | 73 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth | 34.1% | 60 (vs peers) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.2x | 94 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.8x | 60 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| EV/Sales · Valuation | 10.2x | 18 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 3.0% | 60 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.9% | 48 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet77/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Growth69/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality65/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns48/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Valuation36/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
Memo
Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-10-02.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 12.2 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 34.1%; net margin 31.9%; ROE 259.4%; net debt/EBITDA 0.2x.
The estimated value range is 272.90–460.54 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 363.64 USD, the price of 606.38 USD leaves a potential of -40.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -66.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 58/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- EBIT margin: 39.6%
- FCF margin: 30.1%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 18.2%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.2x
What contradicts it
- Gross margin: 50.4%
- EV/Sales: 10.2x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Versus the vertical median
Computer Storage Devices (SIC 3572) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNDKSandisk Corporation | 160.3 bn | 9.1 | 141.2% | 67.0% | +175.3% | +405% / unavailable |
| STXSeagate Technology Holdings plc | 139.2 bn | 31.9 | 259.4% | 31.9% | +34.1% | +128% / +739% |
| WDCWestern Digital Corporation | 130.0 bn | 13.5 | 131.5% | 69.2% | +35.7% | +113% / +851% |
| PEverpure, Inc. | 39.2 bn | 161.8 | 17.7% | 5.9% | +15.6% | +32% / +253% |
| NTAPNetApp, Inc. | 37.5 bn | 26.9 | 114.8% | 21.8% | +5.6% | +71% / +109% |
| QMCOQuantum Corp | 660.9 m | — | — | -80.8% | +2.0% | +114% / +180% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for STX from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 398.62 Total return -34% · Per year -34% | 701.51 Total return 16% · Per year 16% | 1,052.26 Total return 74% · Per year 74% |
| 3 years | 472.82 Total return -21% · Per year -7% | 927.74 Total return 55% · Per year 16% | 1,515.26 Total return 152% · Per year 36% |
| 5 years | 560.84 Total return -5% · Per year -1% | 1,226.94 Total return 106% · Per year 16% | 2,181.97 Total return 265% · Per year 30% |
- Exit P/E± 231.94
- Net margin± 162.36
- Annual revenue growth± 121.09
- Annual dilution± 13.64
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
Seagate Technology Holdings plc is a major provider of mass-capacity data storage, with HDDs and storage systems aimed mainly at data centers. Revenue in fiscal 2026 reached about 12.2 billion USD, up 34% 1, with a gross margin of 46% 1. For fiscal Q1 2027 the company guided to revenue of 4.1 billion USD 2.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
- Reliance on a small number of large customers, especially in cloud and hyperscale, makes revenue sensitive to delayed or cancelled orders 1.
- Some components and raw materials come from a limited number of suppliers, creating supply risk 1.
- Interest expense and losses on debt transactions continued to weigh on financial results 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Dependence on large customershigh
A small number of key customers account for a significant share of revenue, and reduced or cancelled orders could affect results 1.
- Supply chainhigh
Shortages or cost increases for components and materials could slow production and reduce margins 1.
- Technology competitionmedium
If the transition to new technologies such as HAMR is delayed, the company could lose sales and share to rivals 1.
- Debt and liquiditymedium
The level of debt and payment obligations could limit financial flexibility if cash flow declines 12.
- Litigation and intellectual propertylow
Patent disputes and lawsuits could add costs and affect sales 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Demand for mass-capacity storage, supported by data growth and AI applications, could keep lifting revenue 12.
- The mix of pricing actions and higher-capacity products could sustain margins above earlier years 1.
- Strong operating cash flow could allow further debt reduction and continued shareholder payouts 12.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Delivery against fiscal Q1 2027 revenue and non-GAAP EPS guidanceQ1 2027
- Trend in nearline demand and orders from cloud customers2027
- Progress of the Mozaic platform and HAMR transition2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
Seagate designs and manufactures HDDs and storage systems for two main markets: data centers, covering cloud, cloud service providers and enterprises, and Edge/IoT, covering industrial, consumer and NAS applications. In fiscal 2026 the company shipped 789 exabytes of HDD capacity 1. Its advantage rests on vertically integrated design and manufacturing of critical components such as read/write heads and recording media 1.
Sales run through direct and indirect channels. Large data center customers, such as OEMs and hyperscale operators, often buy under master purchase agreements with longer-term demand forecasts 1. Edge/IoT products reach customers through OEMs, distributors, retailers and third-party resellers 1.
The company is organized as a public limited company under Irish law and established Singapore as its principal executive offices in fiscal 2024 1. Manufacturing is spread across China, Malaysia, Northern Ireland, Singapore, Thailand and the United States 1.
Market context
IDC projects the global datasphere to grow at a compound annual rate of about 27% through 2030 1. The company argues this data growth supports long-term demand for scalable mass-capacity storage 1.
The market is concentrated among a few HDD makers, while SSDs gain ground in Edge/IoT and in some high-performance data center workloads 1. Demand moves with customer investment cycles and seasonal consumer buying 1.
Trends
- Rising demand for data and AItailwind
AI applications generate and retain more data, which could sustain demand for high-capacity nearline storage 1.
- Pricing and product mixtailwind
Pricing actions and the shift toward higher-capacity products contributed to margin gains in fiscal 2026 1.
- Competition from SSDsheadwind
SSD adoption could limit the total addressable HDD market and reduce market share if flash advances faster 1.
- Geopolitical and trade uncertaintymixed
Shifting trade policies and geopolitical tensions could affect operations and results, although the company expects minimal impact from current tariffs 12.
Competitive position
Main HDD rivals named in the filing are Western Digital and Toshiba Electronics Devices & Storage, while NAND flash suppliers compete through alternative technologies 1. The company argues its density-driven roadmap and vertical integration keep it well positioned 1.
Customers weigh capacity, performance, reliability, total cost of ownership, energy efficiency and supply continuity 1. Industry consolidation could create stronger competitors over time 1.
- Western Digital CorporationWDC
HDD manufacturer named as a principal competitor in high-capacity storage.
- Toshiba Electronics Devices & Storage Corporation
HDD manufacturer named as a global rival in mass-capacity storage.
- NAND flash and SSD suppliers
Providers of alternative flash-based storage that compete in certain applications.
- Storage systems and electronics manufacturing services providers
Companies offering storage subsystems and contract manufacturing cited as sources of competition.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- How Is Seagate Technology Stock Performance Compared to Other AI Infrastructure StocksYahoo Finance — News · 17 Sept 2026 · EN
- Seagate Technology (STX): The Primary Beneficiary of the AI Driven HDD DemandYahoo Finance — News · 15 Sept 2026 · EN
- Seagate Technology Sees AI Storage Demand Fueling HAMR Growth and Margin GainsYahoo Finance — News · 13 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 17 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 29 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
- Current report28 Oct 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report27 Oct 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report09 Sept 2026Item 3.02 · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement08 Sept 2026
- Current report04 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Annual report04 Aug 2026
- Current report28 Jul 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report12 Jun 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 May 2026Item 3.02 · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-07-03 · SEC / Seagate Technology Holdings plc · 04 Aug 2026
- [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Seagate Technology Holdings plc · 28 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.