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olivLaw · US equity research

TransMedics Group, Inc. TMDX

Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus · SIC 3845

72.76USD+8.04% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

TransMedics develops the OCS, a portable warm perfusion platform that keeps donor organs living outside the body, and the NOP service for organ procurement and transport. The company is in focus because it recently became profitable and revenue has grown sharply, reaching 605.5 million USD in 2025 and 189.9 million USD in the second quarter of 2026.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) stock was 72.76 USD (+8.04% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.5 bn USD, P/E 18.9 on diluted EPS of 3.84 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 1.19, 52-week range 62.04–150.42 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 189.9 m USD (+20.7% YoY), net income of 14.7 m USD (−57.9% YoY), diluted EPS 0.41 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
2.5 bn USD
shares as of 30 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
18.9
Diluted EPS TTM 3.84 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
5.28%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
0.00%
DPS 12m 0.00
Beta (2y)
1.19
Volatility (1y) 59%
52-week range
62.04150.42

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
47.6
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
63.82 – 80.75
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.53 · band width 23.4%
SMA 50 / 200
80.15 / 93.37
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-3.50 / -3.68
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−12.3%−1.1%−11.2 pp—
3 months−4.9%−0.5%−4.4 pp—
6 months−0.2%+4.4%−4.6 pp—
Year to date−40.2%+12.3%−52.5 pp—
1 year−40.5%+13.5%−54.0 pp—
3 years+70.7%+76.4%−5.7 pp—
5 years+131.0%+63.7%+67.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−58.8%
01 Dec 2025 → 14 May 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−67.8%
27 Aug 2024 → 21 Jan 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
+18.2%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
189.9 m USD
+20.7% YoY
Net income
14.7 m USD
−57.9% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.41
−55.4% YoY
net / operating
7.7% / 12.5%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue108.8 m121.6 m143.5 m157.4 m143.8 m160.8 m173.9 m189.9 m
Cost of revenue47.9 m49.6 m55.3 m60.8 m59.2 m67.4 m72.8 m76.8 m
Gross profit60.8 m72.0 m88.2 m96.6 m84.6 m93.4 m101.2 m113.2 m
Research & development14.3 m16.5 m17.2 m15.9 m15.3 m20.7 m24.9 m31.6 m
SG&A42.7 m46.9 m43.6 m44.1 m46.0 m51.4 m63.0 m57.8 m
Operating income3.9 m8.6 m27.4 m36.6 m23.3 m21.3 m13.3 m23.7 m
Depreciation & amortisation5.2 m ≈5.7 m6.1 m6.7 m ≈6.8 m ≈7.5 m11.9 m10.2 m ≈
Interest expense3.6 m3.6 m3.5 m3.5 m3.5 m3.4 m7.2 m7.2 m
Pre-tax income4.2 m7.0 m26.7 m36.2 m23.0 m21.6 m8.5 m19.4 m
Income tax29.0 k132.0 k994.0 k1.3 m-1.3 m-83.8 m1.2 m4.7 m
Net income4.2 m6.9 m25.7 m34.9 m24.3 m105.4 m7.3 m14.7 m
Diluted EPS0.120.19 ≈0.700.920.662.57 ≈0.200.41
Operating cash flow6.9 m ≈19.7 m-2.9 m91.6 m ≈69.6 m ≈34.5 m24.5 m17.3 m ≈
Capex48.2 m ≈13.6 m27.0 m9.1 m ≈7.6 m ≈15.5 m36.7 m7.1 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 11 percentile of its own 9-quarter history (min 17.3, median 49.3, max 3,464.0; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue13.0 m23.6 m25.6 m30.3 m93.5 m241.6 m441.5 m605.5 m
Revenue YoYunavailable+81.3%+8.6%+18.0%+208.8%+158.5%+82.7%+37.1%
Net income-23.8 m-33.5 m-28.7 m-44.2 m-36.2 m-25.0 m35.5 m190.3 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable+436.6%
Diluted EPSunavailableunavailable-1.16-1.60-1.23-0.771.014.87
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable+382.2%
net %-182.5%-142.1%-112.1%-146.1%-38.8%-10.4%8.0%31.4%
Free cash flow-26.4 m-32.5 m-30.7 m-32.4 m-57.7 m-164.9 m-80.9 m133.6 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
488.9 m USD
Financial debt
10.0 m USD
Net debt
-478.9 m USD
Equity
473.1 m USD
Total assets
1.1 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.02x
Current ratio
7.14x
ROE
54.2%
ROA
20.3%
FCF margin
22.1%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
241.6 m
2024
441.5 m
2025
605.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
87.5 m
2024
179.5 m
2025
242.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
154.1 m
2024
262.1 m
2025
362.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Research & development
2023
36.1 m
2024
56.0 m
2025
69.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
119.6 m
2024
168.6 m
2025
185.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-28.7 m
2024
37.5 m
2025
108.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
8.2 m
2024
19.8 m
2025
27.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-20.6 m ≈
2024
57.3 m ≈
2025
135.8 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
10.8 m
2024
14.4 m
2025
13.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-26.7 m
2024
35.8 m
2025
107.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
-1.6 m
2024
316.0 k
2025
-82.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
-25.0 m
2024
35.5 m
2025
190.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.77
2024
1.01
2025
4.87

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
32.5 m
2024
35.2 m
2025
40.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.00
2024
0.00
2025
0.00

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
394.8 m
2024
337.2 m
2025
488.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
63.6 m
2024
97.7 m
2025
84.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
44.2 m
2024
46.6 m
2025
48.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
510.7 m
2024
497.2 m
2025
637.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
173.9 m
2024
286.0 m
2025
327.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
12.0 m
2024
11.5 m
2025
11.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
2.4 m
2024
2.2 m
2025
1.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
706.0 m
2024
804.1 m
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
12.7 m
2024
10.3 m
2025
10.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
—
2024
—
2025
10.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2023verified

Current liabilities
2023
54.9 m
2024
59.9 m
2025
89.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
568.8 m
2024
575.5 m
2025
595.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
137.2 m †
2024
228.6 m †
2025
473.1 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-13.0 m
2024
48.8 m
2025
192.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
151.8 m
2024
129.7 m
2025
59.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-164.9 m ≈
2024
-80.9 m ≈
2025
133.6 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-194.0 m
2024
-129.3 m
2025
-59.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
400.4 m
2024
22.9 m
2025
16.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
37.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
86.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
88.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
189.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
436.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
382.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
58.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
17.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
12.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
22.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
11.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
36.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
12.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
146.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
6.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
-471.1 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-4.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
3.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
6.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
6.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
5.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
145.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
66.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
79.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
52.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
123.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
57 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
61 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
15 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
104 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
2.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
2.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
16.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
18.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
5.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
4.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
3.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
17.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
25.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
3.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
31.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
3.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 64 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

72.76 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 2.5 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
2.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
18.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
4.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
17.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
36.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
22.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
37.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

34/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 30 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 04 Aug 2026
verified 1255derived 102

Score by group

  • Balance sheet81
  • Growth100
  • Valuation29
  • Quality81

Estimated value range

Low
59.80
USD per share
Mid
69.31
USD per share
High
84.20
USD per share
Price: 72.76 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -4.7% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -5.0% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 59.80 – 84.20 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)59.80 – 84.20 (Mid 69.31)
    WACC 9.3% · starting FCFF 96.9 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 17.9%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · not enough peers
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 64/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality146.0%100 (on a fixed band)13%
Net margin · Quality22.7%100 (on a fixed band)8%
FCF conversion · Quality52.1%32 (on a fixed band)8%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth86.4%100 (on a fixed band)10%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-4.0x100 (on a fixed band)13%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet3.8x36 (on a fixed band)8%
Current ratio · Balance sheet6.6x100 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation18.9x50 (on a fixed band)13%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation17.4x0 (on a fixed band)13%
FCF yield · Valuation3.1%39 (on a fixed band)10%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet81/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality81/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation29/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 605.5 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 37.1%; net margin 22.7%; ROE 36.3%; net debt/EBITDA -4.0x.

The estimated value range is 59.80–84.20 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 69.31 USD, the price of 72.75 USD leaves a potential of -4.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -5.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 64/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 146.0%
  • Net margin: 22.7%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 86.4%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: -4.0x
  • Current ratio: 6.6x

What contradicts it

  • EV/EBITDA: 17.4x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Not enough comparable companies with data for an average.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
54.10
Total return -26% · Per year -26%
95.20
Total return 31% · Per year 31%
142.80
Total return 96% · Per year 96%
3 years
64.17
Total return -12% · Per year -4%
125.90
Total return 73% · Per year 20%
205.64
Total return 183% · Per year 41%
5 years
76.11
Total return 5% · Per year 1%
166.51
Total return 129% · Per year 18%
296.12
Total return 307% · Per year 32%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 31.48
  • Net margin± 22.03
  • Annual revenue growth± 16.43
  • Annual dilution± 1.85

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

TransMedics develops the OCS, a portable warm perfusion platform that keeps donor organs living outside the body, and the NOP service for organ procurement and transport. The company is in focus because it recently became profitable and revenue has grown sharply, reaching 1 605.5 million USD in 2025 and 2 189.9 million USD in the second quarter of 2026.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company is the only one with an OCS system approved by the FDA for heart, lung and liver. It has a solid clinical base and close relationships with transplant centers worldwide1.
  • The revenue model is largely recurring, tied to disposables used in each transplant. The NOP service adds an integrated revenue stream1.
  • The company reached profitability in 2024 and reported strong revenue growth in 2025 and 202612.

Weaknesses

  • The operating margin fell noticeably in the second quarter of 2026 because of heavy investment spending3.
  • The company depends on the availability of donor organs and surgeons, which makes quarterly revenue hard to anticipate1.
  • Convertible debt creates refinancing pressure, and the CIBC credit agreement imposes strict financial covenants1.

Opportunities

  • Expansion in Europe through the PAD Aviation air network could open new transplant markets3.
  • Development of OCS Kidney and the Gen 3.0 generation could extend the portfolio to new organs13.
  • If national health systems begin to reimburse OCS use, adoption could rise outside the US1.

Threats

  • Changes to the US federal transplant system could affect organ flow and NOP activity2.
  • Tariffs and inflation can raise component and transport costs, reducing margins1.
  • The emergence of competing technologies could limit the current advantage of the OCS platform1.

Risks

  • Volatile quarterly revenuemedium

    Results can vary widely from quarter to quarter because of donor organ and surgeon availability, which makes period comparisons difficult1.

  • Debt and credit covenantshigh

    The CIBC credit agreement carries variable interest and financial covenants; a breach could lead to acceleration of the obligations1.

  • Refinancing of convertible noteshigh

    Convertible notes maturing in 2028 require liquidity or refinancing, and capital market conditions could be unfavorable at that time1.

  • Federal OPTN systemmedium

    HRSA's reorganization of the OPTN is still under way, and its impact on NOP is uncertain2.

  • Expansion costsmedium

    Investment in Europe, aircraft and research could outpace revenue growth, which could reduce profitability13.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If revenue keeps growing at the pace guided for 2026, the company could strengthen its leading position in its niche.
  • If the NOP service expands in Europe through PAD Aviation, recurring revenue could grow faster than product sales.
  • If margins recover after the investment period, operating profitability could return to earlier levels.

What would break the thesis

  • If heavy investment does not translate into revenue, the operating margin could remain below levels seen in prior years.
  • If the federal OPTN reform reduces the volume of organs procured, dependence on NOP could become a vulnerability.
  • If debt obligations cannot be refinanced on time, the company could be forced to sell assets or issue costly equity.

What to watch

  • Delivery of the 2026 revenue guidance and whether the raised low end holdsnext 10-K
  • Trend in gross margin and operating expenses after the second-quarter investmentsQ3 2026
  • Contribution of PAD Aviation to revenue and to the European logistics network2027
  • Refinancing timetable for the CIBC credit and the 2028 notes2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

TransMedics Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: TMDX) is a medical technology company seeking to transform organ transplant therapy for patients with end-stage organ failure. Its main product, the Organ Care System (OCS), keeps donor organs in a living, functioning state outside the human body and is described by the company as the only FDA approved, portable, multi-organ warm perfusion platform. The company generated 605.5 million USD in total revenue in 2025, compared with 441.5 million USD in 2024, according to its annual report1.

Segments

OCS products (disposables and consoles)

Most revenue comes from single-use, organ-specific disposable sets required for each transplant performed with the OCS, while consoles are sold or loaned to customers. This segment produces recurring revenue tied directly to transplant volume1.

NOP service (National OCS Program)

NOP provides transplant centers with outsourced organ procurement, OCS perfusion management and transport logistics, including dedicated aviation. The company has acquired fixed-wing aircraft, and this segment grew faster than product sales in the second quarter of 20263.

Logistics aviation and European investment

Through the 2023 acquisition of Summit Aviation and the investment in PAD Aviation in Germany, completed on July 1, 2026, the company is expanding its air transport network. The stated aim is a dedicated organ transplant air logistics network across Europe and beyond3.

Market context

The addressed market is organ transplantation for end-stage heart, lung and liver failure, where cold storage limits how many organs are used. The company guides 2026 revenue of 737 to 757 million USD, excluding PAD Aviation, implying growth of roughly 22% to 25%. That growth depends on donor and surgeon availability, which is unpredictable1.

Trends

  • Reform of the federal OPTN systemmixed

    The US government has moved toward a multi-vendor model for the transplant network, and UNOS is gradually reducing its role. The company says the impact on NOP is still uncertain, which could affect organ flow if new structures change quickly2.

  • Expansion in Europetailwind

    CE marking for the OCS lines and the PAD Aviation investment open commercial opportunities in European markets, where the company says it is building a dedicated logistics network. If these markets open up, non-US revenue could grow13.

  • Cost and tariff pressuresheadwind

    Inflation, trade policies and tariffs modestly increased cost of revenue in 2025, and supply chains remain exposed. If these pressures persist, gross margins could stay below earlier levels13.

  • Heavy investment in growthheadwind

    Operating expenses rose considerably for OCS Kidney, Gen 3.0 and clinical programs, which reduced the operating margin in the second quarter. If revenue does not grow in parallel, profitability could be affected3.

Competitive position

Cold storage remains the standard in the field and is the main alternative to the OCS, since it is inexpensive and well understood by transplant centers. The documents do not describe other portable perfusion makers in detail, so direct competition remains incompletely covered by these sources. The company stresses that the OCS is the only portable, multi-organ platform approved by the FDA1.

  • Cold storage

    The current standard of organ preservation, described by the company as rudimentary and a cause of ischemic injury. The sources name no distinct issuer.

  • Existing organ procurement organizations and logistics networks

    Actors that procure organs without the OCS, against which NOP competes by offering a complete service. They are not listed as traded entities.

  • Alternative therapies for organ failure

    Medical treatment and mechanical support devices are alternatives to transplant, but the sources describe them as less effective over the long term.

  • Other perfusion platform makers

    The sources mention competing technologies in general without identifying them. A verified list cannot be established from the documents provided.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / TransMedics Group, Inc. · 24 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / TransMedics Group, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / TransMedics Group, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.