olivLaw · US equity research
UBS Group AG UBS
National Commercial Banks · SIC 6021 · Vertical: National Commercial Banks (SIC 6021)
UBS Group AG is an international bank headquartered in Switzerland that describes its activities in its 2025 annual report filed with the SEC on Form 20-F. The integration of Credit Suisse, treated as a separate chapter in the annual report, makes the company's profile relevant for investors and supervisors.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 30 Oct 2026, UBS Group AG (UBS) stock was 47.69 USD (−0.91% on the day), with market capitalisation 159.4 bn USD, P/E 20.2 on diluted EPS of 2.36 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.11, 52-week range 36.41–55.72 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 47.2
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 46.23 – 48.64
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.61 · band width 5.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 50.22 / 47.08
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.70 / -0.93
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −0.9% | −0.9% | +0.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | −9.6% | +1.2% | −10.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | +9.2% | +4.8% | +4.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | +3.0% | +10.7% | −7.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +25.4% | +11.1% | +14.3 pp | +23.1% |
| 3 years | +103.3% | +80.7% | +22.5 pp | +92.5% |
| 5 years | +162.8% | +64.6% | +98.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 90 percentile of its own 10-quarter history (min 3.7, median 10.8, max 73.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 30.3 bn | 29.0 bn | 33.1 bn | 35.4 bn | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | +1.9% | −4.5% | +14.2% | +7.0% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 4.5 bn | 4.3 bn | 6.6 bn | 7.5 bn | 7.7 bn | 27.4 bn | 5.1 bn | 7.8 bn |
| Net income YoY | +332.3% | −4.7% | +52.5% | +13.9% | +2.3% | +257.4% | −81.2% | +51.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.18 | 1.14 | 1.77 | 2.06 | 2.25 | 8.30 | 1.52 | 2.36 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +372.0% | −3.4% | +55.3% | +16.4% | +9.2% | +268.9% | −81.7% | +55.3% |
| net % | 14.9% | 14.9% | 19.9% | 21.2% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 231.4 bn USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 90.5 bn USD
- Total assets
- 1,617.4 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 8.9%
- ROA
- 0.5%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | 8.2 bn | 9.5 bn | 9.6 bn | 28.3 bn | 6.8 bn | 8.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 6.6 bn | 7.5 bn | 7.7 bn | 27.4 bn | 5.1 bn | 7.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.77 | 2.06 | 2.25 | 8.30 | 1.52 | 2.36 | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 173.5 bn | 207.9 bn | 195.3 bn | 340.2 bn | 244.1 bn | 231.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1,125.8 bn | 1,117.2 bn | 1,104.4 bn | 1,716.9 bn | 1,565.0 bn | 1,617.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1,066.0 bn | 1,056.2 bn | 1,047.1 bn | 1,630.8 bn | 1,479.5 bn | 1,526.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 59.8 bn | 61.0 bn | 57.2 bn | 86.2 bn | 85.6 bn | 90.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 3.9 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Mar 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Market and valuation
Banking
32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 56.0% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
30 Oct 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 159.4 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
56% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 22.14 – 37.08 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- Residual income26.15 – 27.37 (Mid 26.75)
- Justified P/B22.14 – 29.77 (Mid 25.39)
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
- Peers: P/E25.90 – 29.74 (Mid 27.48)31 companies used · median multiple 11.6x · quartiles 11.0x – 12.6xASRV, BAC, CAC, CASH, CBU, CFBK, CFR, CHCO, COF, DCBG, FHN, FULT, FUNC, HAFC, HBAN, JPM, KEY, LCNB, MRBK, NBTB, NKSH, ONB, PNC, RF, SFST, SHBI, TBBK, USB, WAFD, WFC, WSFS
- Peers: P/B27.04 – 37.08 (Mid 32.06)33 companies used · median multiple 1.2x · quartiles 1.0x – 1.4xASRV, BAC, BANC, C, CAC, CARE, CASH, CBU, CFBK, COF, DCBG, FHN, FULT, FUNC, HAFC, HBAN, KEY, LCNB, MRBK, NBHC, NBTB, NKSH, ONB, PNC, PRK, RF, SFST, SHBI, SNUS-PH, USB, WAFD, WFC, WSFS
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 56.0% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | 8.9% | 15 (vs peers) | 29% |
| ROA · Quality | 0.5% | 6 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Cost-to-income · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net interest margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 20.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 5.3% | 53 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| NPL ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Cost of risk · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Loan-to-deposit · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/B · Valuation | 1.8x | 16 (vs peers) | 18% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 20.2x | 0 (vs peers) | 18% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth80/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality13/100 · 2/4 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/1 factors with a value
- Valuation8/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
UBS Group AG (UBS). Latest full fiscal year: 2021; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth 7.0%; ROE 8.9%.
The estimated value range is 26.02–29.76 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 27.11 USD, the price of 47.69 USD leaves a potential of -43.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -75.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 56.0% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 20.4%
What contradicts it
- ROE: 8.9%
- ROA: 0.5%
- P/B: 1.8x
- P/E (TTM): 20.2x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Cost-to-income, Net interest margin, NPL ratio, Cost of risk, Loan-to-deposit, Dividend yield.
Versus the vertical median
National Commercial Banks (SIC 6021) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPMJpmorgan Chase & Co | 895.9 bn | 14.4 | 17.8% | 35.7% | +2.8% | +8% / +142% |
| BACBofA Finance LLC | 345.1 bn | 11.8 | 10.8% | 26.8% | +6.8% | −6% / +90% |
| WFCWells Fargo & Company | 250.4 bn | 11.6 | 12.9% | — | −1.6% | −4% / +110% |
| CCitigroup Inc | 214.5 bn | 17.5 | 6.8% | 16.8% | +5.6% | +21% / +211% |
| UBSUBS Group AG | 159.4 bn | 20.2 | 8.9% | — | +7.0% | +25% / +103% |
| COFCapital One Financial Corp | 125.7 bn | 12.6 | 9.4% | 17.0% | +36.6% | −7% / +102% |
| USBUs Bancorp \de\ | 92.6 bn | 11.7 | 12.7% | 27.5% | +4.4% | +27% / +86% |
| PNCPnc Financial Services Group, Inc. | 90.9 bn | 12.3 | 12.6% | 30.6% | +7.2% | +25% / +99% |
| HBANHuntington Bancshares Incorporated | 31.8 bn | 12.7 | 9.1% | 133.3% | +6.4% | +2% / +64% |
| RFRegions Financial Corporation | 24.3 bn | 11.5 | 11.9% | — | +23.8% | +18% / +97% |
| KEYKeycorp | 22.5 bn | 12.1 | 10.3% | 26.0% | +62.7% | +20% / +107% |
| SNUS-PHSantander Holdings USA, Inc. | 11.1 bn | 6.2 | 10.8% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| FHNFirst Horizon Corp | 11.0 bn | 11.1 | 11.6% | 29.9% | +7.2% | +9% / +116% |
| CFRCullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. | 9.8 bn | 14.6 | 16.3% | 29.5% | +8.3% | +28% / +73% |
| ONBOld National Bancorp | 9.5 bn | 10.2 | 11.5% | — | +6.1% | +23% / +83% |
| FULTFulton Financial Corp | 4.5 bn | 11.2 | 11.1% | 137.0% | −6.5% | +35% / +81% |
| WSFSWsfs Financial Corp | 4.0 bn | 13.1 | 11.9% | — | +50.2% | +51% / +122% |
| CBUCommunity Financial System, Inc. | 3.3 bn | 14.5 | 11.5% | 26.6% | +9.6% | +12% / +56% |
| PRKPark National Corporation | 3.2 bn | 15.7 | 11.0% | 25.8% | +2.9% | +15% / +73% |
| BANCBanc Of California, Inc. | 2.9 bn | — | -0.7% | -1.4% | −3.8% | +7% / +63% |
| NBTBNbt Bancorp Inc | 2.7 bn | 12.8 | 11.4% | 117.1% | +10.4% | +29% / +56% |
| WAFDWaFd, Inc. | 2.2 bn | 9.1 | 8.5% | 810.8% | +7.8% | +1% / +19% |
| CHCOCity Holding Company | 2.0 bn | 15.6 | 16.8% | 177.4% | +3.2% | +21% / +57% |
| TBBKThe Bancorp, Inc. | 1.9 bn | 8.8 | 29.6% | 164.3% | +20.8% | −28% / +31% |
| NBHCNational Bank Holdings Corp | 1.7 bn | 15.7 | 6.5% | 203.4% | +2.9% | +5% / +20% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for UBS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 09 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (28 Oct 2026), 6-K (14 Aug 2026), 6-K (30 Jul 2026), 6-K (29 Jul 2026).
In brief
UBS Group AG is an international bank headquartered in Switzerland that describes its activities in its 2025 annual report filed with the SEC on Form 20-F 1. The integration of Credit Suisse, treated as a separate chapter in the annual report 1, makes the company's profile relevant for investors and supervisors.
SWOT
Strengths
- Global scale and presence across several markets, described in the annual report and segment notes 1.
- Detailed and transparent reporting, with extensive notes to the financial statements and segment breakdowns 1.
- A structured framework for capital and liquidity management, treated as an integrated function 1.
Weaknesses
- The complexity of the organizational structure, with numerous subsidiaries and entities, makes analysis harder 1.
- Dependence of results on market conditions and sensitivity to interest rates in the banking book 1.
- Integration pressure from recent acquisitions and reorganizations, treated as a separate process 1.
Opportunities
- Simplifying the structure after integration could reduce costs and clarify long-term reporting.
- If the regulatory environment becomes more predictable, capital planning could become more efficient 1.
- Expanding synergies across the combined businesses could support revenue over the medium term.
Risks
- Regulatory riskhigh
The regulatory and supervisory framework is extensive, and legal changes could impose new capital or compliance requirements 1.
- Integration riskhigh
Integrating acquired entities is a complex process, and delays or unforeseen costs could affect results 1.
- Interest rate riskmedium
Exposure in the banking book to interest rate changes is treated explicitly in the report and could influence interest income 1.
- Liquidity riskmedium
Liquidity and funding management is a separate chapter, and strains in funding markets could pressure liquidity indicators 1.
- Legal riskmedium
Legal and regulatory proceedings, detailed in the report, could generate costs or operational restrictions 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Global scale and geographic diversification could support revenue even when some markets are volatile 1.
- If the Credit Suisse integration delivers the expected synergies, a simpler structure could improve operating efficiency.
- Discipline in capital and liquidity management, described as an integrated function, could support stability 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Progress of the Credit Suisse integration and effects on the organizational structure2026
- Changes to the regulatory and supervisory framework, including capital requirements2026
- Liquidity and capital indicators reported in the coming quartersQ1 2026
- The next annual report filed with the SEC, updating risks and segment breakdownsnext 20-F
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 09 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (28 Oct 2026), 6-K (14 Aug 2026), 6-K (30 Jul 2026), 6-K (29 Jul 2026).
The business
According to the Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025, UBS Group AG presents its strategy, business model and operating environment in its annual report, and its activities are organized into reported segments 1. The company files with the SEC as a foreign issuer, so information is provided in the form required by US regulation 1. The organizational structure includes numerous subsidiaries and entities, detailed in the notes to the financial statements 1.
The report notes that the activity is subject to an extensive regulatory and supervisory framework, and risks are treated as a separate section, showing the scope of legal exposure across several jurisdictions 1. The business model is influenced by seasonality, which the company refers to explicitly 1.
The integration of Credit Suisse is treated as a significant event that changed the organization of the company and its acquisitions or disposals of subsidiaries and businesses 1. This structural change explains an important part of the analysis presented in the SEC documents.
Segments
Reported segments
UBS activity is reported by segment, and the segment reporting note in the financial statements details the components and their results 1. The company also provides a breakdown by geographic location, allowing performance to be compared across regions 1.
Businesses and clients
The description of businesses in the annual report includes the main activities through which the bank serves its clients, presented in the chapter dedicated to businesses 1. The exact revenue details for each segment are in the financial statements and are not reproduced here 1.
Geography
The geographic breakdown is presented separately, showing the weight of different markets in the bank's activity 1. This view helps explain the company's regional exposure.
Market context
The market and regulatory environment in which UBS operates is described in the annual report, which covers regulation and supervision as well as legal and regulatory developments 1. The analysis of financial and operating performance, including market trends, is presented in the results chapter 1.
The sources indicate that the bank's performance depends on macroeconomic conditions and the regulatory framework, factors covered in the chapter on the operating environment 1. The company provides a reference point for 2024 in its SEC filing, useful for comparing developments 1.
Trends
- Credit Suisse integrationmixed
The integration of Credit Suisse changed the company's structure and is treated as a major theme in the annual report 1. Long-term effects depend on how the integration is executed, and this process could influence costs and organization.
- Regulation and supervisionheadwind
The regulatory and supervisory framework is treated in detail, and legal developments can change capital and liquidity requirements 1. If requirements tighten, pressure on profitability could increase.
- Interest rate and market environmentmixed
The report discusses interest rate risk in the banking book and exposure to market factors, indicating that results are sensitive to market conditions 1. The effect depends on how these conditions develop later.
- Capital and liquidity managementtailwind
Capital and liquidity management is a separate chapter in which the company explains its liquidity coverage indicators 1. The strength of these indicators could support operations if they remain within expected limits.
Competitive position
The sources provided do not explicitly detail UBS competitors, so the competitive analysis relies on the environment described in the report, in which the bank operates across several markets 1. Competitive position is influenced by the bank's global scale and the regulatory framework 1.
The material provided contains no named list of competitors, which limits direct comparison with other banks 1. Assessing the competitive position would require additional information from documents outside the analyzed material.
- Other large international banks
The sources provided do not identify named competitors; this category is mentioned only in general terms.
- Swiss banks
Competition in the Swiss market is not detailed explicitly in the sources provided.
- Global investment banks
Investment and wealth management activities compete with other international players, unnamed in the source.
- Regional banks
In local markets competition may come from regional institutions, a category not specified in the material analyzed.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- UBS integration of Credit Suisse slowed AI deployment, Ermotti saysCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- UBS Defeats Ex-Credit Suisse Managing Directors’ Back-Pay ClaimsBloomberg Markets · 22 Oct 2026 · EN
- Lovitură pentru foştii bancheri Credit Suisse: Curtea Supremă a Elveţiei confirmă tăierea bonusurilor pentru aproximativ 1.000 de manageri, după preluarea băncii de către UBS. Decizia nu mai poate fi atacatăZiarul Financiar · 15 Oct 2026 · RO
- UBS Buys $7.9 Billion of Credit Suisse Bonds in Biggest BuybackBloomberg Markets · 11 Sept 2026 · EN
- UBS CEO Ermotti on Credit Suisse, Buyback, VolatilityBloomberg Markets · 29 Jul 2026 · EN
- Credit Suisse veteran shakes up SMBC in new era for Japan banksThe Japan Times · 21 Jul 2026 · RO
- Credit Suisse Veteran Becomes Lunate-Backed Firm’s Abu Dhabi CEOBloomberg Markets · 14 Jul 2026 · EN
- South Africa Court Drops Credit Suisse From Rand-Fixing SuitBloomberg Markets · 30 Jun 2026 · EN
- Ex-Credit Suisse Risk Chief Has Swiss Criminal Case DismissedBloomberg Markets · 26 May 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 27 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 28 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)14 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Jul 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / UBS Group AG · 09 Mar 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.