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olivLaw · US equity research

Walmart Inc. WMT

Retail-Variety Stores · SIC 5331 · Vertical: Retail-Variety Stores (SIC 5331)

123.51USD+1.86% · 1 dayClose 30 Oct 2026

Walmart Inc. is an omnichannel retailer that combines stores, eCommerce, advertising, membership and financial services, with a focus on everyday low prices. Its total revenues exceeded 713 billion dollars in fiscal 2026, and eCommerce growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2027 remained a central driver of its strategy.

At the close of 30 Oct 2026, Walmart Inc. (WMT) stock was 123.51 USD (+1.86% on the day), with market capitalisation 979.9 bn USD, P/E 44.6 on diluted EPS of 2.77 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.80%, beta 0.40, 52-week range 100.61–134.20 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2027): revenue of 187.9 bn USD (+5.9% YoY), net income of 6.4 bn USD (−9.4% YoY), diluted EPS 0.80 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
979.9 bn USD
shares as of 26 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
44.6
Diluted EPS TTM 2.77 · TTM to 31 Jul 2026
E/P (TTM)
2.24%
TTM to 31 Jul 2026
Dividend yield
0.80%
DPS 12m 0.99
Beta (2y)
0.40
Volatility (1y) 26%
52-week range
100.61134.20

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
72.7
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
105.76 – 126.15
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.87 · band width 17.6%
SMA 50 / 200
110.23 / 118.51
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
3.37 / 2.93
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+18.9%−0.9%+19.8 pp—
3 months+11.1%+1.2%+9.9 pp—
6 months−6.1%+4.8%−11.0 pp—
Year to date+10.9%+10.7%+0.1 pp—
1 year+20.8%+11.1%+9.7 pp+34.1%
3 years+126.7%+80.7%+46.0 pp+38.5%
5 years+148.0%+64.6%+83.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−23.5%
19 May 2026 → 27 Aug 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−26.0%
21 Apr 2022 → 17 Jun 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+19.9%
S&P 500 +10.5%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2027 · 31 Jul 2026

Revenue
187.9 bn USD
+5.9% YoY
Net income
6.4 bn USD
−9.4% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.80
−9.1% YoY
net / operating
3.4% / 5.0%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '26Q1 '27Q2 '27
Revenue169.6 bn180.6 bn165.6 bn177.4 bn179.5 bn190.7 bn177.8 bn187.9 bn
Cost of revenue127.3 bn136.2 bn124.3 bn132.8 bn134.7 bn143.6 bn133.1 bn138.8 bn
SG&A35.5 bn36.5 bn34.2 bn37.3 bn38.1 bn38.3 bn37.2 bn39.8 bn
Operating income6.7 bn7.9 bn7.1 bn7.3 bn6.7 bn8.7 bn7.5 bn9.4 bn
Depreciation & amortisation3.3 bn3.4 bn3.4 bn3.5 bn3.6 bn3.7 bn3.8 bn3.9 bn
Interest expense496.0 m599.0 m519.0 m651.0 m563.0 m585.0 m574.0 m137.0 m
Pre-tax income6.1 bn7.0 bn6.0 bn9.3 bn8.2 bn6.0 bn7.1 bn8.0 bn
Income tax1.4 bn1.5 bn1.4 bn2.2 bn2.1 bn1.6 bn1.7 bn1.5 bn
Net income4.6 bn5.3 bn4.5 bn7.0 bn6.1 bn4.2 bn5.3 bn6.4 bn
Diluted EPS0.570.65 ≈0.560.880.770.53 ≈0.670.80
Operating cash flow6.6 bn ≈13.5 bn5.4 bn12.9 bn ≈9.1 bn ≈14.1 bn4.7 bn15.0 bn ≈
Capex6.2 bn ≈7.1 bn5.0 bn6.4 bn ≈7.2 bn ≈8.0 bn6.7 bn7.5 bn ≈
Dividends paid1.7 bn ≈1.7 bn1.9 bn1.9 bn ≈1.9 bn ≈1.9 bn2.0 bn2.0 bn ≈
Share repurchases977.0 m ≈1.4 bn4.6 bn1.6 bn ≈808.0 m ≈1.1 bn2.1 bn3.0 bn ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 95 percentile of its own 43-quarter history (min 4.8, median 13.4, max 68.6; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20192020202120222023202420252026
Revenue514.4 bn524.0 bn559.2 bn572.8 bn611.3 bn648.1 bn681.0 bn713.2 bn
Revenue YoY+2.8%+1.9%+6.7%+2.4%+6.7%+6.0%+5.1%+4.7%
Net income6.7 bn14.9 bn13.5 bn13.7 bn11.7 bn15.5 bn19.4 bn21.9 bn
Net income YoY−32.4%+123.1%−9.2%+1.2%−14.6%+32.8%+25.3%+12.6%
Diluted EPS2.265.194.751.621.421.912.412.73
Diluted EPS YoY−31.1%+129.6%−8.5%−65.9%−12.3%+34.5%+26.2%+13.3%
net %1.3%2.8%2.4%2.4%1.9%2.4%2.9%3.1%
Free cash flow17.4 bn14.6 bn25.8 bn11.1 bn12.0 bn15.1 bn12.7 bn14.9 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Jan 2026

Cash
10.7 bn USD
Financial debt
41.2 bn USD
Net debt
30.5 bn USD
Equity
105.9 bn USD
Total assets
284.7 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.39x
Current ratio
0.79x
ROE
21.5%
ROA
8.0%
FCF margin
2.1%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2024
648.1 bn
2025
681.0 bn
2026
713.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2024
490.1 bn
2025
511.8 bn
2026
535.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2024
158.0 bn ≈
2025
169.2 bn ≈
2026
177.8 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026derived

SG&A
2024
131.0 bn
2025
139.9 bn
2026
147.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2024
27.0 bn
2025
29.3 bn
2026
29.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2024
11.9 bn
2025
13.0 bn
2026
14.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2024
38.9 bn ≈
2025
42.3 bn ≈
2026
44.0 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2024
2.3 bn
2025
2.2 bn
2026
2.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2024
21.8 bn
2025
26.3 bn
2026
29.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2024
5.6 bn
2025
6.2 bn
2026
7.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2024
15.5 bn
2025
19.4 bn
2026
21.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2024
1.91
2025
2.41
2026
2.73

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2024
8.1 bn
2025
8.1 bn
2026
8.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Dividend per share
2024
0.76
2025
0.83
2026
0.94

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2024
9.9 bn
2025
9.0 bn
2026
10.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2024
54.9 bn
2025
56.4 bn
2026
58.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2024
76.9 bn
2025
79.5 bn
2026
84.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
110.8 bn
2025
120.0 bn
2026
136.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2024
28.1 bn
2025
28.8 bn
2026
28.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2024
252.4 bn
2025
260.8 bn
2026
284.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2024
56.8 bn
2025
58.7 bn
2026
63.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2024
878.0 m
2025
3.1 bn
2026
6.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2024
36.1 bn
2025
33.4 bn
2026
34.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2024
92.4 bn
2025
96.6 bn
2026
107.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2024
90.3 bn
2025
97.4 bn
2026
105.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2024
35.7 bn
2025
36.4 bn
2026
41.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2024
20.6 bn
2025
23.8 bn
2026
26.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2024
15.1 bn ≈
2025
12.7 bn ≈
2026
14.9 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2024
-21.3 bn
2025
-21.4 bn
2026
-26.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
-13.4 bn
2025
-14.8 bn
2026
-13.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Dividends paid
2024
6.1 bn
2025
6.7 bn
2026
7.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2024
2.8 bn
2025
4.5 bn
2026
8.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
4.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue CAGR 3Y
5.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Revenue CAGR 5Y
5.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EBIT growth (YoY)
1.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income growth (YoY)
12.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income CAGR 3Y
23.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Net income CAGR 5Y
10.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EPS growth (YoY)
13.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EPS CAGR 3Y
24.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
EPS CAGR 5Y
-10.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
FCF growth (YoY)
17.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Profitability

Gross margin
25.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026
EBITDA margin
6.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026
EBIT margin
4.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026
Net margin
3.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026
FCF margin
1.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026

Returns

ROE
23.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
ROA
7.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
ROIC
18.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
ROCE
18.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
35.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
57.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
35.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
0.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
Debt / equity
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
Interest coverage
17.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
Quick ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Jul 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
42.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026
Capital expenditure
29.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026
Free cash flow
13.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026
FCF conversion
61.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026
Cash conversion
90.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
40 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
Days payables outstanding
41 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
979.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
Enterprise value
1,015.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
44.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
44.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026
Earnings yield
2.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026
P/B
10.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
P/S
1.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
EV/EBITDA
21.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
EV/EBIT
31.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
EV/Sales
1.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
P/FCF
72.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
FCF yield
1.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
Dividend yield
0.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
1.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Jul 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 34 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40

Closing price

123.51 USD

30 Oct 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 979.9 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
979.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
44.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026
P/B
10.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
EV/EBITDA
21.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
ROE
23.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
Net margin
3.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
4.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Dividend yield
0.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Jul 2026

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 31 Jul 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 31 Jul 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 26 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 28 Aug 2026
verified 2710derived 214

Score by group

  • Returns49
  • Balance sheet30
  • Valuation14
  • Quality30
  • Growth72

Estimated value range

Low
33.05
USD per share
Mid
41.28
USD per share
High
48.87
USD per share
Price: 123.51 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -66.6% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -199.2% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 4 methods used · 3 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 12.35 – 72.30 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)21.35 – 35.29 (Mid 26.75)
    WACC 9.1% · starting FCFF 14.9 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 74%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA44.76 – 72.30 (Mid 60.28)
    6 companies used · median multiple 10.8x · quartiles 8.2x – 12.9x
    BJ, DG, DLTR, OLLI, PSMT, TGT
  • Peers: P/E46.45 – 62.44 (Mid 55.82)
    7 companies used · median multiple 20.2x · quartiles 16.8x – 22.6x
    BJ, DG, DLTR, FIVE, OLLI, PSMT, TGT
  • Dividend discount (DDM)12.35 – 16.61 (Mid 14.17)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Retail-Variety Stores (SIC 5331)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 34/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality18.6%25 (vs peers)10%
Net margin · Quality3.0%22 (vs peers)6%
FCF conversion · Quality61.2%45 (on a fixed band)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth5.3%44 (on a fixed band)8%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth24.3%100 (on a fixed band)8%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet0.7x0 (vs peers)10%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet17.4x100 (on a fixed band)6%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.8x0 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation44.6x13 (vs peers)10%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation21.4x14 (vs peers)10%
FCF yield · Valuation1.4%17 (on a fixed band)8%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns1.5%21 (on a fixed band)6%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns57.0%90 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet30/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth72/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality30/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns49/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation14/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

Walmart Inc. (WMT). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-07-31.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 713.2 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 4.7%; net margin 3.0%; ROE 23.4%; net debt/EBITDA 0.7x.

The estimated value range is 33.05–48.87 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 41.28 USD, the price of 123.51 USD leaves a potential of -66.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -199.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 34/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 24.3%
  • Interest coverage: 17.4x
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 57.0%

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: 18.6%
  • Net margin: 3.0%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 0.7x
  • Current ratio: 0.8x
  • P/E (TTM): 44.6x
  • EV/EBITDA: 21.4x
  • FCF yield: 1.4%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.5%
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Versus the vertical median

Retail-Variety Stores (SIC 5331) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 9 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
44.6x
vertical median 20.9x
above median (+113.5%)
EV/EBITDA
21.4x
vertical median 12.2x
above median (+75.5%)
P/S
1.3x
vertical median 1.1x
above median (+25.4%)
P/B
10.0x
vertical median 4.6x
above median (+114.8%)
ROE
23.4%
vertical median 26.9%
below median (−12.8%)
Net margin
3.0%
vertical median 4.1%
below median (−26.4%)
EBIT margin
4.4%
vertical median 5.6%
below median (−21.6%)
Revenue YoY
4.7%
vertical median 10.4%
below median (−54.7%)
Net debt/EBITDA
0.7x
vertical median -0.4x
above median
Dividend yield
0.8%
vertical median 1.1%
below median (−28.4%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
WMTWalmart Inc.979.9 bn44.623.4%3.0%+4.7%+21% / +127%
COSTCostco Wholesale Corp448.6 bn48.828.4%3.0%+10.1%+11% / +83%
TGTTarget Corporation70.1 bn16.026.4%4.1%−1.7%+67% / +39%
DGDollar General Corp29.2 bn17.219.7%3.9%+5.2%+34% / +11%
DLTRDollar Tree, Inc.25.1 bn16.345.9%8.0%+10.4%+35% / +21%
BJBj’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.13.6 bn23.527.7%2.6%+4.7%+22% / +58%
FIVEFive Below, Inc.13.3 bn21.628.3%11.7%+22.9%+53% / +38%
OLLIOllie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.5.4 bn20.214.9%9.8%+16.6%−25% / +17%
PSMTPriceSmart, Inc.5.1 bn30.712.3%2.8%+11.5%+44% / +165%
MNSOMINISO Group Holding Limited——26.9%15.4%+48.1%−52% / −60%

1- and 3-year price returns: for WMT from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
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Base
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Bull
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
73.93
Total return -40% · Per year -40%
130.66
Total return 7% · Per year 7%
196.74
Total return 60% · Per year 60%
3 years
72.87
Total return -39% · Per year -15%
144.80
Total return 20% · Per year 6%
239.24
Total return 97% · Per year 25%
5 years
71.83
Total return -39% · Per year -9%
160.47
Total return 35% · Per year 6%
290.92
Total return 142% · Per year 19%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 36.20
  • Net margin± 25.34
  • Annual revenue growth± 20.65
  • Annual dilution± 2.13

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Walmart Inc. is an omnichannel retailer that combines stores, eCommerce, advertising, membership and financial services, with a focus on everyday low prices. Its total revenues exceeded 713 billion dollars in fiscal 2026, and eCommerce growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2027 remained a central driver of its strategy 13.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Global scale, a dense store network and the ability to combine store pickup with home delivery are clear strengths 1.
  • The everyday low price strategy supports customer trust and allows a consistent market share 1.
  • Growth in advertising and membership fee revenue diversifies income beyond retail sales 13.

Weaknesses

  • Operating margins are relatively modest, and technology and automation costs could weigh on short term profitability 1.
  • Dependence on lower margin categories such as food could limit improvement in gross margin 1.
  • Liability claims costs can rise quickly and affect operating income 1.

Opportunities

  • Expansion of advertising, marketplace and financial services could add higher margin revenue 1.
  • Growth in Walmart+ and Sam's Club membership could strengthen recurring subscription income 3.
  • International markets such as India, Mexico and Africa remain open for growth if eCommerce investments prove effective 13.

Threats

  • Competition from digital platforms and new business models could reduce market share or pressure prices 1.
  • Macroeconomic uncertainty, tariffs and fuel price volatility could affect demand and costs 2.
  • Regulatory changes, including those on drug prices, could reduce sales in certain categories 23.

Risks

  • Execution of the omnichannel strategyhigh

    Investments in eCommerce, technology and AI may not deliver the expected results, and their costs could weigh on short term financial performance 1.

  • Intense competitionhigh

    New well funded competitors or digital business models could reduce market share or margins 1.

  • Macroeconomic conditionsmedium

    Inflation, interest rates, tariffs and reduced purchasing power could reduce demand and shift the sales mix toward lower margin categories 12.

  • Drug price regulationmedium

    Price caps on certain medicines could continue to reduce comparable sales in the health segment 23.

  • Liability claims costslow

    Rising costs for claims and settlements could reduce operating margin if the trend continues 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If growth in eCommerce and advertising continues, the company could convert more sales into higher margin revenue 13.
  • The raised fiscal 2027 guidance suggests management sees a solid growth base, provided the macroeconomic environment does not deteriorate significantly 3.
  • Scale and a diverse set of formats could provide a durable advantage over smaller competitors, especially in basic categories 1.

What would break the thesis

  • Large investments in technology and price could keep margins under pressure for a longer period 12.
  • The profit effect of tariff refunds could be temporary if the amounts are reinvested in lower prices 23.
  • Regulatory risk and rising liability costs could reduce profitability in certain segments 12.

What to watch

  • Third quarter fiscal 2027 results compared with net sales growth guidanceQ3 2027
  • Development of Walmart U.S. comparable sales after the drug price regulation effect2027
  • Use of tariff refunds and the effect on gross marginQ4 2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Walmart Inc. operates three reportable segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International and Sam's Club U.S. Walmart U.S. is the largest, with net sales of 483.0 billion dollars in fiscal 2026, representing 68% of consolidated net sales 1. The company describes its model as an omnichannel ecosystem in which stores, websites, mobile apps and pickup or delivery services reinforce one another 1.

The declared strategy has four pillars: make every day easier for busy families, operate with discipline, become more digital, and make trust a competitive advantage 1. Price remains the anchor through the EDLP strategy (everyday low prices), supported by EDLC (everyday low cost), and recent quarters show growth in advertising and membership fee revenue 3.

From an investor perspective, the company frames its priorities as growth, margin and returns, with return on investment at 15.1% in fiscal 2026 1. Membership fees, advertising and marketplace services are presented as growth lines that complement retail sales 13.

Segments

Walmart U.S.

The largest segment, with 4,611 stores in the United States and net sales of 483.0 billion dollars in fiscal 2026 1. Comparable sales rose 4.3% in fiscal 2026, supported by eCommerce and Walmart+ members 1.

Sam's Club U.S.

A membership-only warehouse club with 601 clubs and net sales of 93.0 billion dollars in fiscal 2026 1. Membership income is a significant component of the segment's operating income 1.

Market context

The company operates in a highly competitive retail market, where eCommerce is growing faster than traditional retail and consumers increasingly compare prices digitally 1. Walmart reported net sales of 706.4 billion dollars in fiscal 2026 and a gross profit rate of 24.2% 1.

The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, with tariffs, inflation, fuel price volatility and supply chain pressures that could affect consumer behavior 2. Guidance for fiscal 2027 was raised to net sales growth of 4.0% to 5.0% in constant currency 3.

Trends

  • eCommerce and omnichanneltailwind

    Growth in eCommerce, including store-fulfilled pickup and delivery, has been a major driver of sales, with global eCommerce sales up 23% in the second quarter of fiscal 2027 3. If this trend continues it could support growth, but it requires heavy investment in technology and logistics 1.

  • Tariffs and refundsmixed

    The company received tariff refunds in the quarter ended July 31, 2026, but these amounts have been reinvested in lower prices, so the profit effect could be temporary 23. Prioritizing price investment is expected through fiscal 2027 2.

Competitive position

Walmart competes with brick and mortar and online retailers, discount, grocery, drug and variety chains, membership clubs and social commerce platforms 1. Competition centers on price, availability, convenience and digital experience, and the entry of well funded competitors could intensify pressure 1.

The company notes that rivals with longer histories and greater brand recognition may obtain better terms from suppliers and invest more in development 1. The ability to combine different store formats with a coherent omnichannel experience largely shapes its competitive position 1.

  • Costco WholesaleCOST

    Membership warehouse club operator that competes directly with Sam's Club U.S. in grocery and general merchandise for members 1.

  • AmazonAMZN

    Online marketplace and advertising platform that competes with the company's online services, delivery and marketplace 1.

  • TargetTGT

    General merchandise retailer in the United States that competes in consumer goods, apparel and home categories 1.

  • Dollar GeneralDG

    Small format discount chain that competes for basic household purchases, especially in less served areas 1.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-01-31 · SEC / Walmart Inc. · 13 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-07-31 · SEC / Walmart Inc. · 28 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Walmart Inc. · 20 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.

Walmart Inc. (WMT): stock, results, valuation and forecast · olivLaw