Probability that a state fails to honour its debt.
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Components: ability to pay (debt/GDP, debt service ratio, FX reserves) × willingness to pay (institutional framework, political stability). Practical indicators: CDS spreads, Moody's/S&P/Fitch ratings, EMBI spread. Romania has a BBB-/Baa3 rating with negative outlook (May 2026). olivLaw tracks RO and EU sovereign spreads in Financial Hub.