Module · Analyses
Analyses
In-depth analyses of the day's news: politics, economy, geopolitics, technology & AI and their impact on society — with forecasts for Romania, the EU, the US and the world. Written under I&W discipline, verified through macro-guard.
Single-company and BVB instrument analyses live on their own page: Company analyses → · The forecasts in the analyses are scored in public. See the record · The monthly forecasting tournament
Latest analyses
The United States can detect sabotage of undersea cables, but it has no plan to repair them in wartime
## 1. What the analysis says about Svalbard and why Washington is looking at it. According to [War on the Rocks](https://warontherocks.com/who-repairs-the-internet-in-wartime/), in the spring of 2026 the United Kingdom, Norway and the United States
America today, 5 November 2026 — the 10 stories that matter
America today: the 10 highest-impact stories of 5 November 2026, ranked by the olivLaw desk — geopolitics (5), defense (3), domestic (1).
America today, 4 November 2026 — the 10 stories that matter
America today: the 10 highest-impact stories of 4 November 2026, ranked by the olivLaw desk — geopolitics (5), defense (3), finance (1).
Wall Street no longer pays any price for AI — Alphabet, Meta and the test of $740 billion in spending
Alphabet had the worst day in its history after investing $51.4 billion in one quarter and running out of free cash. Microsoft, the only one that spent below plan, held up. Why the market changed the rule, what the history of post-earnings drops shows and three scenarios for Alphabet to the end of January.
Data Center Alley's bill comes due — 54 GW contracted, 4.8 GW used, and who pays for the grid across PJM's 13 states
Ashburn holds the world's largest concentration of data centres, and the cost of their grid lands on customers in 13 states and Washington, D.C.: $6.3 billion of PJM's 2028/2029 capacity auction. Virginia is shifting costs onto data centres, Loudoun is pausing new applications, Washington wants faster building, and the NextEra–Dominion merger awaits a ruling.
Forty-five days before the midterms — Iran, a base in Poland, Canada's turn to Europe, and whether Trump backs down again
In one week the president said the Iran war was "hopefully toward the end", then that he must decide whether to "annihilate" Iran; promised Poland a permanent US Army base while the Pentagon studies pulling up to 40,000 troops out of Europe; and called Canada's invitation to join the EU as an associate "laughable". With Democrats leading the generic ballot by seven points, the Fed hiking against his wishes and Brent above $100, we measure the 2026 record of threats and follow-through, run a 50,000-trial Monte Carlo and an olivLaw panel of 14 virtual persons, and issue ten falsifiable predictions for the 103 days to 31 December.
Politics2
Forty-five days before the midterms — Iran, a base in Poland, Canada's turn to Europe, and whether Trump backs down again
In one week the president said the Iran war was "hopefully toward the end", then that he must decide whether to "annihilate" Iran; promised Poland a permanent US Army base while the Pentagon studies pulling up to 40,000 troops out of Europe; and called Canada's invitation to join the EU as an associate "laughable". With Democrats leading the generic ballot by seven points, the Fed hiking against his wishes and Brent above $100, we measure the 2026 record of threats and follow-through, run a 50,000-trial Monte Carlo and an olivLaw panel of 14 virtual persons, and issue ten falsifiable predictions for the 103 days to 31 December.
America Before the November 3 Test — an X-Ray of the 2026 Midterms and a Calibrated Forecast for the House and Senate
Ten weeks before the November 3, 2026 midterm elections, the signals converge: Democrats lead the generic ballot by 6-8 points, President Trump's approval has fallen to a second-term low, and the Cook Political Report has moved the Texas and Iowa Senate races — states Trump carried by double digits — into the toss-up column. This analysis breaks down the arithmetic of both chambers, the behavioral signals from special elections, the economic backdrop (3.4% inflation, 4.3% unemployment, tariffs, the Iran war) and the historical base rates, then formulates 10 ICD-203-calibrated predictions for election night and the consequences for Europe and Romania.
Markets & Finance1
Geopolitics1
Technology1
Daily brief7
All 7 →America today, 5 November 2026 — the 10 stories that matter
America today: the 10 highest-impact stories of 5 November 2026, ranked by the olivLaw desk — geopolitics (5), defense (3), domestic (1).
America today, 4 November 2026 — the 10 stories that matter
America today: the 10 highest-impact stories of 4 November 2026, ranked by the olivLaw desk — geopolitics (5), defense (3), finance (1).
America today, 3 November 2026 — the 10 stories that matter
America today: the 10 highest-impact stories of 3 November 2026, ranked by the olivLaw desk — defense (4), geopolitics (4), domestic (1).
America today, 2 November 2026 — the 10 stories that matter
America today: the 10 highest-impact stories of 2 November 2026, ranked by the olivLaw desk — defense (4), geopolitics (4), domestic (1).
America today, 1 November 2026 — the 10 stories that matter
America today: the 10 highest-impact stories of 1 November 2026, ranked by the olivLaw desk — geopolitics (5), defense (3), domestic (2).
America today, 31 October 2026 — the 10 stories that matter
America today: the 10 highest-impact stories of 31 October 2026, ranked by the olivLaw desk — defense (3), finance (3), geopolitics (3).