olivLaw · European equity research
Banco Comercial Português, S.A. BCP.LS
Portugal · Euronext Lisbon · ISIN PTBCP0AM0015 · Vertical: Listed companies from Portugal
Millennium bcp is the largest private banking group in Portugal, with significant operations in Poland, Mozambique and Angola. In 2025 total client resources grew slightly above the prior year level, and capital ratios stayed comfortably above regulatory minimums while the bank's ratings improved. Still, results are dominated by the Portuguese business, where most client resources sit.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Banco Comercial Português, S.A. (BCP.LS) stock was 1.09 EUR (+0.28% on the day), with market capitalisation 16.8 bn EUR, P/E 16.5 on diluted EPS of 0.07 EUR over the last 12 months, beta 1.10, 52-week range 0.77–1.22 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 46.3
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.05 – 1.14
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.46 · band width 8.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 1.14 / 1.00
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.02 / -0.02
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −8.2% | +0.4% | −8.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −1.0% | −3.3% | +2.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +17.0% | +4.0% | +13.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +21.7% | +8.1% | +13.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +41.2% | +10.7% | +30.5 pp | −10.1% |
| 3 years | +277.9% | +50.1% | +227.8 pp | +10.3% |
| 5 years | +586.6% | +43.6% | +543.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 8.0, median 10.8, max 13.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 906.4 m | 1.0 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +12.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +13.8% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- unavailable EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 9.1 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 109.3 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 11.8%
- ROA
- 1.0%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 144.8 m | 155.7 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 1.4 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn ≈ | esef· 22 Oct 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 906.4 m | 1.0 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.06 | 0.07 | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 2 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 16.8 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
17% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.67 – 1.03 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E0.67 – 1.03 (Mid 0.79)7 companies used · median multiple 12.0x · quartiles 10.1x – 15.5xCOR.LS, CTT.LS, EGL.LS, JMT.LS, NVG.LS, SEM.LS, TDSA.LS
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 16.5x | 25 (vs peers) | 63% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.2% | 17 (on a fixed band) | 38% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial17/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial25/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
BANCO COMERCIAL PORTUGUÊS S.A. (BCP.LS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 11.8%.
The estimated value range is 0.67–1.03 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 0.79 EUR, the price of 1.09 EUR leaves a potential of -27.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -38.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 16.7% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- P/E (TTM): 16.5x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.2%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Portugal · same country · compared with 10 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMT.LSJerónimo Martins Sgps SA | 12.2 bn | 18.9 | 20.5% | 1.8% | +7.6% | −5% / −14% |
| NVG.LSThe Navigator Company, S.A. | 2.2 bn | 15.1 | 10.5% | 7.3% | −5.7% | +1% / −19% |
| SEM.LSSemapa - Sociedade De Investimento E Gestão, Sgps, S.A. | 1.6 bn | 10.1 | 9.3% | 7.4% | −1.6% | +18% / +46% |
| EGL.LSMota - Engil, Sgps S.A. | 1.4 bn | 10.2 | 44.7% | 2.5% | −10.9% | −6% / +20% |
| COR.LSCorticeira Amorim, Sgps, S.A. | 889.3 m | 16.0 | 6.6% | 6.5% | −8.3% | −1% / −26% |
| CTT.LSCtt - Correios De Portugal S.A. | 607.2 m | 12.0 | 20.1% | 4.5% | +16.9% | −35% / +28% |
| NBA.LSNovabase - Sociedade Gestora De Participações Sociais S.A. | 261.8 m | 51.1 | 8.8% | 4.4% | −7.2% | −19% / +35% |
| TDSA.LSTeixeira Duarte, S.A. | 173.0 m | 3.5 | 34.1% | 7.1% | −8.9% | −39% / +485% |
| ESON.LSEstoril-Sol, SGPS S.A. | 32.2 m | — | -25.2% | -20.3% | −2.4% | −31% / −63% |
| RAM.LSRamada Investimentos E Indústria, S.A. | — | — | 8.1% | 85.9% | +0.6% | −14% / +0% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for BCP.LS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Millennium bcp is the largest private banking group in Portugal, with significant operations in Poland, Mozambique and Angola. In 2025 total client resources grew slightly above the prior year level, and capital ratios stayed comfortably above regulatory minimums while the bank's ratings improved. Still, results are dominated by the Portuguese business, where most client resources sit.
SWOT
Strengths
- The client resource base is solid and growing in both business areas, and the bank holds a capital buffer above regulatory minimums 1.
- Ratings were improved by several agencies, reflecting a stronger capital and liquidity position 1.
- International presence in Poland, Mozambique and Angola offers geographic diversification 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Currency riskmedium
Depreciation of local currencies against the euro can reduce the euro value of international activities.
- Capital pressuremedium
Higher risk-weighted assets after CRR3 could narrow the margin over capital requirements.
- MREL requirementslow
Possible additional MREL requirements could require issuance of eligible debt in larger volumes.
- Sovereign debt exposuremedium
Growing holdings of government securities, including other states' debt, expose the bank to market risk.
- Geographic concentrationlow
Reliance on the Portuguese market could amplify the impact of a local shock on results.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Steady growth in client resources and improved ratings could support better profitability in the coming years 1.
- A capital position above regulatory minimums gives flexibility for distributions to shareholders 1.
- The presence in Poland, where resources grew significantly, could generate additional income 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Evolution of the CET1 ratio after CRR3 application2026
- Results of the Polish and Mozambican operations2026
- Planned MREL issuances by the bank2026
- Any new rating actions by the agenciesnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Banco Comercial Português, S.A., operating under the Millennium bcp brand, carries out banking and financial services in Portugal and abroad, with emphasis on retail banking, corporate banking and private banking. According to the 2025 annual report, total client resources of the group reached 111,782 million euros, of which 75,000 million in Portugal and 36,783 million in international activity 1. The group also includes operations in Poland (Bank Millennium), Mozambique (Millennium bim) and Angola (Banco Millennium Atlântico, consolidated under the equity method) 1.
Segments
Retail
The Retail segment includes the Millennium bcp retail network in Portugal, the retail recovery division and the ActivoBank bank, with Mass Market, Prestige and Diaspora sub-segments. In 2025 the focus was on attracting new clients and digital activation 1.
International business
This segment combines Bank Millennium in Poland, Millennium bim in Mozambique and Banco Millennium Atlântico in Angola. Growth in international client resources was driven mainly by the Polish operation, while the Mozambique subsidiary was hit by the depreciation of its local currency against the euro 1.
Businesses & Corporate
The Businesses & Corporate segment serves the company and corporate network in Portugal, along with investment banking, funds and specialised lending and treasury activities 1.
Market context
The Portuguese banking market was supported in 2025 by growth in client resources, while deposits rose and on-balance-sheet resources remained dominant in the total structure 1. Rating upgrades, helped by improved creditworthiness of the Portuguese Republic, suggest a macro environment perceived as favourable 1.
Trends
- Growth in client resourcestailwind
Deposits and other client resources rose both in Portugal and abroad, supporting the bank's short-term liquidity and funding 1.
- Rating upgradestailwind
Several rating agencies raised the bank's ratings during 2025, which could lower funding costs if the trend continues 1.
- CRR3 and higher risk-weighted assetsheadwind
The entry into force of CRR3 and growth in corporate lending increased risk-weighted assets, pressuring capital ratios 1.
- Exposure to local currency depreciationmixed
The depreciation of the Mozambican metical against the euro reduced the euro value of Mozambique resources, although they grew in local currency 1.
Competitive position
The provided sources do not explicitly name the bank's competitors in its markets. The annual report compares its position through its own ratings and performance, without offering a comparison with other market participants 1.
- No competitors named in source
The annual report does not name direct competitors, so no US-listed issuers can be indicated.
- Other Portuguese banks
The source does not give concrete names; this entry cannot be completed from the text provided.
- Banks in Poland
The source does not identify competitors of the Polish subsidiary; none can be indicated from the text provided.
- Banks in sub-Saharan Africa
The source does not identify competitors in Mozambique and Angola, so this entry has no name.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202522 Oct 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Banco Comercial Português, S.A. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.