olivLaw · European equity research
EDP, S.A. EDP.LS
Portugal · Euronext Lisbon · Vertical: Listed companies from Portugal
EDP is a global energy group focused on renewable generation, electricity networks and energy supply to customers in Europe, North America, South America and Asia-Pacific. The company enters 2026 with a 2026-2028 business plan aimed at networks and new renewable capacity, in a context of rising electricity demand. Total installed capacity reaches 32.7 GW, and over 90% of generation comes from renewable sources.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, EDP, S.A. (EDP.LS) stock was 4.98 EUR (−0.10% on the day), with beta 0.33, 52-week range 3.71–4.98 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 61.8
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 4.67 – 5.00
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.92 · band width 6.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 4.79 / 4.54
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.04 / 0.02
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +3.2% | +0.4% | +2.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +10.0% | −3.3% | +13.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | +13.1% | +4.0% | +9.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +27.1% | +8.1% | +19.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +13.4% | +10.7% | +2.7 pp | −10.1% |
| 3 years | +17.4% | +50.1% | −32.7 pp | +10.3% |
| 5 years | +4.5% | +43.6% | −39.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
unavailable
Balance sheet & financial health
Valuation
unavailable
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Portugal · same country · compared with 10 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMT.LSJerónimo Martins Sgps SA | 12.2 bn | 18.9 | 20.5% | 1.8% | +7.6% | −5% / −14% |
| NVG.LSThe Navigator Company, S.A. | 2.2 bn | 15.1 | 10.5% | 7.3% | −5.7% | +1% / −19% |
| SEM.LSSemapa - Sociedade De Investimento E Gestão, Sgps, S.A. | 1.6 bn | 10.1 | 9.3% | 7.4% | −1.6% | +18% / +46% |
| EGL.LSMota - Engil, Sgps S.A. | 1.4 bn | 10.2 | 44.7% | 2.5% | −10.9% | −6% / +20% |
| COR.LSCorticeira Amorim, Sgps, S.A. | 889.3 m | 16.0 | 6.6% | 6.5% | −8.3% | −1% / −26% |
| CTT.LSCtt - Correios De Portugal S.A. | 607.2 m | 12.0 | 20.1% | 4.5% | +16.9% | −35% / +28% |
| NBA.LSNovabase - Sociedade Gestora De Participações Sociais S.A. | 261.8 m | 51.1 | 8.8% | 4.4% | −7.2% | −19% / +35% |
| TDSA.LSTeixeira Duarte, S.A. | 173.0 m | 3.5 | 34.1% | 7.1% | −8.9% | −39% / +485% |
| ESON.LSEstoril-Sol, SGPS S.A. | 32.2 m | — | -25.2% | -20.3% | −2.4% | −31% / −63% |
| RAM.LSRamada Investimentos E Indústria, S.A. | — | — | 8.1% | 85.9% | +0.6% | −14% / +0% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for EDP.LS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
EDP is a global energy group focused on renewable generation, electricity networks and energy supply to customers in Europe, North America, South America and Asia-Pacific. The company enters 2026 with a 2026-2028 business plan aimed at networks and new renewable capacity, in a context of rising electricity demand. Total installed capacity reaches 32.7 GW, and over 90% of generation comes from renewable sources.
SWOT
Strengths
- A geographically and technologically diversified portfolio with a high share of renewable generation and an extensive customer base.
- The mix of generation, networks and supply provides partly regulated revenues and more controlled exposure to price swings.
- Solid performance in the North American renewables business and a demonstrated ability to execute asset rotation transactions.
Weaknesses
- The average cost of debt rose in 2025, which reduced recurring net profit and pressures financial margins.
- Flexibility activities in Iberia are sensitive to gas costs and contracted prices, which led to lower results in 2025.
- High net debt limits financial flexibility for large simultaneous investments in several markets.
Opportunities
- Growing electricity demand linked to electrification and data centres could support new generation capacity and networks.
- Planned investment in networks and storage could open new sources of regulated and flexibility revenues.
- Asset rotation to financial investors could bring capital for new projects if the market stays receptive.
Threats
- Policy changes in the United States, including reduced incentives for wind and solar, may affect the returns on new projects.
- Volatility in energy and commodity prices linked to geopolitical conflicts could reduce revenues in competitive markets.
- Extreme weather events or grid disruptions can affect asset availability and raise repair costs.
Risks
- Renewable generation volumeshigh
The company is exposed to variability in hydro, wind and solar resources. Adverse conditions can reduce output and revenues, although geographic diversification partly mitigates the effect.
- Asset rotation gainshigh
The value of assets sold may fall if investor appetite weakens, interest rates rise or the exchange rate moves unfavourably, which would reduce transaction gains.
- Energy pricesmedium
Residual market exposure not covered by long-term purchase contracts can affect results if prices or regulations change.
- Counterparty riskmedium
Non-payment by customers, suppliers or financial counterparties can affect cash flows, particularly in difficult economic periods.
- Regulation and policymedium
Regulatory changes in Europe and the United States, including new grid connection and support rules, can delay projects or alter economic conditions.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If electricity demand keeps growing and the 2026-2028 investment plan is executed as targeted, EBITDA could benefit from new renewable capacity and network expansion.
- The growth of EDP Renewables in 2025 and the North American projects show that the renewables business can deliver solid results when conditions are favourable.
- The broad customer base and regulated networks can offer a degree of stability, and asset rotation can partly fund growth without excessive debt build-up.
What would break the thesis
- If the cost of debt keeps rising, recurring net profit could remain under pressure, particularly with net debt above 15 billion euros.
- Policy changes in the United States and volatility in Europe could slow new projects or reduce expected margins.
- Dependence on natural resources and market prices could produce uneven results from year to year, especially in the Iberian flexibility activities.
What to watch
- Execution of the 2026-2028 investment plan and the pace of capacity additions2026
- Average cost of debt and the evolution of net debtQ1 2027
- Results of FlexGen & Clients in Iberia, especially contracted prices and gas costs2027
- Effects of United States policy on wind and solar projectsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
EDP is a global energy company active in developing and building renewable assets, operating generation plants, electricity networks and supplying energy and services to customers. The 2025 annual report indicates a presence in Europe, North America, South America and Asia-Pacific, with total installed capacity of 32.7 GW. The company organises its activity into four business platforms and reporting segments, and in 2025 it had 12 million customers connected across Portugal, Spain and Brazil.
The business model combines wind, solar, battery storage (BESS), hydro, thermal and offshore generation with distribution and transmission networks, allowing the company to control several steps of the value chain. The networks segment brings relatively stable, regulated revenues, while renewable generation depends more on natural resources and energy prices. The company also reports flexibility assets, such as pumped hydro and gas plants, used for backup services in Iberia.
In 2025, recurring EBITDA was 5028 million euros, up 1% from 2024, and reported net profit was 1150 million euros. Net debt remained at 15.4 billion euros, and the company continued asset rotation, meaning partial sales of completed projects to investors. Organic cash flow grew in 2025, providing context for the investment programme of the coming period.
Segments
Renewables, Clients & Energy Management
This segment brings together EDP Renewables (wind, solar and BESS) and the FlexGen & Clients activities. In 2025, EDP Renewables EBITDA rose 17% to 1974 million euros, supported by higher generation and new capacity, while FlexGen & Clients fell to 1457 million euros due to higher gas costs and lower contracted prices in Iberia.
Electricity Networks
The networks segment includes distribution and transmission in Iberia and Brazil. EBITDA in 2025 was affected by the absence of asset rotation gains recorded in 2024, and excluding those gains it was broadly flat. Growth in the regulated asset base (RAB) in Spain and inflation indexation support the segment outlook.
Holdings & Other
Central activities and other group entities have a small weight in consolidated results. Restructuring adjustments and losses linked to contracts with equipment suppliers affected the 2025 result, without changing the core structure of the group.
Market context
Energy markets in Europe and North America are influenced by rising electricity demand driven by technology and electrification, and the annual report points to significant growth in world demand over the next 10 years. The company operates in regulated markets in Portugal, Spain and Brazil and in competitive markets in the United States and other European countries, where support mechanisms such as contracts for difference in Romania stand out.
The regulatory framework remains variable: in the United States, the OBBBA law cut federal wind and solar incentives earlier than expected, while in France, Germany and Italy there are new auction mechanisms and storage rules. These changes can influence the pace of investment and the company's revenue models.
Trends
- Rising electricity demandtailwind
The annual report points to growing electricity demand linked to data centres, electric vehicles and industrial electrification, which could support EDP's capacity plans in the coming years.
- Geopolitical and energy price uncertaintyheadwind
Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have increased volatility in energy and commodity markets, which can affect selling prices and supply costs, especially for gas-based flexibility activities.
- Support policies for renewablesmixed
Auction mechanisms, contracts for difference and grid connection rules in several European countries can support new projects, but timelines and conditions change frequently, adding uncertainty.
- Investment in networks and flexibilitytailwind
Rising investment in networks and energy storage, encouraged by more favourable rules in some countries, could open opportunities for the networks segment and the company's flexibility assets.
Competitive position
The company competes with other renewable developers and operators, integrated utilities and financial investors that buy generation assets. Competition is more intense for large wind and solar projects, where auction prices and access to financing determine the winners.
In the networks and supply segments, competition comes from local operators and other utilities offering services to commercial and residential customers. Differentiation rests on service quality, digitalisation and the ability to integrate distributed energy.
- Iberdrola
Integrated utility with major activities in Spain and renewables, a direct competitor in Iberia and European markets.
- Enel
European energy group with activities in generation, networks and supply, present in several countries where EDP operates.
- NextEra EnergyNEE
Major developer and operator of wind and solar in the United States, a relevant competitor for the North American activities.
- Engie
European energy group active in renewables, networks and energy services, competing in European and South American markets.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / EDP, S.A. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.