olivLaw · European equity research
Elia Group NV ELI.BR
Belgium · Euronext Brussels · ISIN BE0003822393 · Vertical: Listed companies from Belgium
Elia Group is a Belgian-based electricity transmission operator active in Belgium and Germany, managing high-voltage grids and financing a large infrastructure investment programme. Its activity matters now because grids are central to the energy transition and to integrating renewable generation.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Elia Group NV (ELI.BR) stock was 133.60 EUR (+2.38% on the day), with market capitalisation 11.9 bn EUR, P/E 23.3 on diluted EPS of 5.73 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.22%, beta 0.27, 52-week range 100.60–141.40 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 73.1
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 116.97 – 133.49
- above the upper band · %B 1.01 · band width 13.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 121.69 / 130.30
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 2.81 / 2.03
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +13.7% | +0.4% | +13.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | +0.8% | −3.3% | +4.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | −2.5% | +4.0% | −6.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +21.8% | +8.1% | +13.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +26.5% | +10.7% | +15.8 pp | +6.3% |
| 3 years | +41.0% | +50.1% | −9.1 pp | −6.5% |
| 5 years | +32.7% | +43.6% | −10.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 50 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 13.0, median 19.3, max 25.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.8 bn | 3.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −2.0% |
| Net income | 399.5 m | 512.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +28.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 4.41 | 5.73 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +29.9% |
| net % | 10.4% | 13.6% |
| Free cash flow | -3.7 bn | -3.5 bn |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 2.0 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 6.2 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 24.9 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.91x
- ROE
- 8.8%
- ROA
- 2.3%
- FCF margin
- -92.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.8 bn | 3.8 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Operating income | 644.2 m | 879.1 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 181.0 m | 276.5 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 555.0 m | 739.8 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Income tax | 155.5 m | 227.3 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Net income | 399.5 m | 512.5 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 4.41 | 5.73 | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.55 | 1.64 | esef· 15 Apr 2025derived |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.4 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Inventories | 42.7 m | 224.6 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Current assets | 2.6 bn | 3.5 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 13.6 bn | 17.7 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 313.2 m | 565.2 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Total assets | 19.4 bn | 24.9 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 3.8 bn | 3.9 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Equity | 5.5 bn | 6.2 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 90.6 m | 89.4 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -1.5 bn | 944.2 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Capex | 2.2 bn | 4.4 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | -3.7 bn ≈ | -3.5 bn ≈ | esef· 15 Apr 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -2.3 bn | -4.9 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | 1.0 bn | 4.6 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 140.4 m | 146.3 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | 1.0 m | 1.3 m | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 11.9 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
48% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 22.25 – 134.71 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E58.98 – 134.71 (Mid 82.92)24 companies used · median multiple 14.5x · quartiles 10.3x – 23.5xACKB.BR, AGS.BR, AZE.BR, BANI.BR, BAR.BR, BEKB.BR, BELYS.BR, BPOST.BR, CAMB.BR, CFEB.BR, COLR.BR, DECB.BR, DEME.BR, DIE.BR, ECONB.BR, EVS.BR, FAGR.BR, FLOB.BR, FOU.BR, IBAB.BR, JEN.BR, KIN.BR, MELE.BR, MOUR.BR
- Dividend discount (DDM)22.25 – 30.33 (Mid 25.67)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 13.6% | 90 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -678.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.2x | 26 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.9x | 9 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 23.3x | 33 (vs peers) | 22% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -29.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.2% | 18 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet19/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality45/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial18/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation19/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ELIA GROUP (ELI.BR). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.8 bn EUR in 2024; YoY growth -2.0%; net margin 13.6%; ROE 9.6%.
The estimated value range is 40.61–82.52 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 54.29 EUR, the price of 133.60 EUR leaves a potential of -59.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -146.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 13.6%
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: -678.2%
- Interest coverage: 3.2x
- Current ratio: 0.9x
- FCF yield: -29.1%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.2%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Belgium · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELI.BRElia Group | 11.9 bn | 23.3 | 9.6% | 13.6% | −2.0% | +28% / +34% |
| LOTB.BRLotus Bakeries | 11.4 bn | 66.4 | 20.9% | 12.7% | +10.0% | +82% / +76% |
| GBLB.BRGroupe Bruxelles Lambert - Groep Brussel Lambert | 10.6 bn | 82.4 | 0.8% | 2.1% | +1.0% | +6% / +9% |
| DIE.BRD'ieteren Group | 9.7 bn | 23.2 | — | 5.3% | −1.5% | +22% / +16% |
| ACKB.BRAckermans & Van Haaren | 8.8 bn | 22.2 | 8.4% | 7.6% | +18.6% | +22% / +77% |
| COLR.BRColruyt Group | 4.4 bn | 14.6 | 9.4% | 2.9% | +3.1% | +12% / −6% |
| DEME.BRDeme Group | 4.2 bn | 12.2 | 15.5% | 8.3% | +1.3% | +21% / +72% |
| AZE.BRAzelis Group | 2.9 bn | 16.1 | 6.6% | 4.3% | +1.5% | +29% / −42% |
| MELE.BRMelexis | 2.1 bn | 12.4 | 30.7% | 18.4% | −3.3% | −1% / −38% |
| BEKB.BRNV Bekaert SA | 2.1 bn | 30.7 | 3.1% | 1.8% | −6.4% | +10% / −5% |
| FAGR.BRFagron | 1.8 bn | 22.2 | 16.7% | 9.2% | +14.3% | +15% / +40% |
| KIN.BRKinepolis Group | 1.4 bn | 33.9 | 19.3% | 7.0% | −4.5% | +62% / +11% |
| JEN.BRJensen Group | 706.9 m | 17.2 | 15.1% | 9.1% | +13.3% | +28% / +111% |
| BAR.BRBarco | 563.5 m | 9.1 | 7.9% | 6.7% | −9.9% | −48% / −59% |
| IBAB.BRIon Beam Applications | 487.2 m | 39.5 | 10.7% | 2.1% | +24.5% | +48% / +52% |
| DECB.BRDeceuninck | 341.3 m | 24.6 | 4.3% | 1.7% | −4.5% | +8% / +8% |
| CAMB.BRCampine | 272.3 m | 12.2 | 28.6% | 6.1% | +13.4% | −12% / +161% |
| CFEB.BRAannemingsmaatschappij Cfe | 266.8 m | 11.1 | 9.9% | 2.0% | −5.3% | +22% / +48% |
| MOUR.BRMoury Construct | 261.2 m | 10.7 | 21.3% | 13.1% | −4.0% | +11% / +76% |
| EVS.BREvs Broadcast Equipment | 245.9 m | 6.0 | 20.8% | 21.7% | +14.3% | −49% / −36% |
| BPOST.BRBpost | 229.8 m | 3.5 | 6.3% | 1.5% | −2.6% | −39% / −75% |
| ECONB.BREconocom Group | 210.7 m | 40.5 | 1.2% | 0.2% | +4.3% | −1% / −36% |
| IMMO.BRImmobel | 172.2 m | — | -7.4% | -25.2% | −32.8% | −24% / −36% |
| MONNI.BRKeyware Technologies | 171.0 m | 162.0 | 3.5% | 4.5% | −5.9% | −5% / −17% |
| HYSG.BRHybrid Software Group PLC | 121.3 m | — | -2.5% | -5.5% | +7.2% | −4% / +13% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ELI.BR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 73.84 Total return -44% · Per year -44% | 130.97 Total return -1% · Per year -1% | 197.87 Total return 50% · Per year 50% |
| 3 years | 62.65 Total return -51% · Per year -21% | 125.87 Total return -2% · Per year -1% | 210.06 Total return 62% · Per year 17% |
| 5 years | 53.15 Total return -56% · Per year -15% | 120.96 Total return -4% · Per year -1% | 222.99 Total return 75% · Per year 12% |
- Exit P/E± 31.47
- Net margin± 22.03
- Annual revenue growth± 19.28
- Annual dilution± 1.85
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Elia Group is a Belgian-based electricity transmission operator active in Belgium and Germany, managing high-voltage grids and financing a large infrastructure investment programme. Its activity matters now because grids are central to the energy transition and to integrating renewable generation 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Large and growing regulated base, with high grid investment and solid operational indicators, including very high grid reliability.
- High share of investments aligned with the EU taxonomy, which supports access to sustainable finance.
- Technical experience across two regulated markets and the ability to transfer expertise to other countries through consultancy activity.
Weaknesses
- High financial indebtedness, which increases sensitivity to interest rate levels.
- Dependence on two regulated markets, which concentrates regulatory risk.
- Revenues from external consultancy declined in 2024 after a peak year.
Opportunities
- Grid extension for offshore wind and renewable integration could open new projects.
- Cross-border interconnection projects could support new revenue streams.
- Rising electricity demand could increase the need for grid capacity.
Threats
- Higher interest rates could reduce the appeal of utility shares and raise the cost of financing.
- Changes to the regulatory framework could affect the return accepted on investments.
- Delays in infrastructure projects could postpone expected revenues.
Risks
- Financing and dilution riskmedium
The announced equity package could dilute existing shareholders if not executed as planned.
- High indebtednesshigh
Net financial debt has risen substantially, which could limit financial flexibility if interest rates stay high.
- Regulatory riskmedium
Changes in tariffs or the allowed return on the regulated base could affect revenues.
- Project execution riskmedium
Delays or cost overruns on investment projects could reduce returns.
- Environmental and safety risklow
Environmental incidents, such as SF6 leaks, or workplace accidents could generate costs and penalties.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If planned investments are delivered on schedule, the regulated base could grow significantly and support earnings per share growth.
- The 2025 net profit guidance and dividend policy could support investor confidence if operating results remain stable.
- The role of grids in the energy transition could continue to attract regulatory support and funding for expansion.
What would break the thesis
- Higher interest rates could weigh on the share valuation and raise the cost of capital for planned investments.
- Dilution from the new share issue could limit growth in earnings per share.
- High net debt could become a burden if revenues or financing conditions deteriorate.
What to watch
- Delivery of net profit within the 2025 guidance range2025
- Evolution of net debt and financing conditions after the capital increaseQ1 2026
- Progress of the 2025-2028 investment plan and project timelinesnext 10-K
- Regulator decisions on the allowed return on the regulated base2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Profitability is supported by grid investments, which grow the regulated base and therefore future revenues. Investments in grid infrastructure reached 4,8 billion EUR in 2024 1.
The group also reports operational indicators such as grid reliability, which in Belgium exceeded 99,9% in 2024 on the duration-of-interruption basis, and connections to offshore wind capacity through its infrastructure 1.
Segments
Transmission in Belgium (Elia Transmission Belgium)
Operates the high-voltage grid in Belgium, with investments in reinforced and new lines; in 2024 it completed 135 km of new or reinforced lines 1.
Transmission in Germany (50Hertz)
Operates the transmission grid in eastern Germany and connects offshore wind farms; in 2024 it completed the Baltic Eagle connection and built 428 km of new or reinforced lines 1.
Consultancy services (EGI and WindGrid)
International consultancy and energy project development, with revenues from external clients of 9,0 million EUR in 2024, lower than the prior year 1.
Market context
The group's main market is regulated electricity transmission in Belgium and Germany, where tariffs and returns are set by regulators. Demand is supported by the energy transition and the need to extend grids. The group targets annual RAB growth of more than 20% over the next four years 1.
In 2024 the share price fell by 34,33%, amid uncertainty over financing and rising interest rates, although operational performance remained strong 1.
Trends
- Acceleration of grid investmenttailwind
The 2025-2028 investment plan opens a growth path for the regulated base, which could support future revenues if projects are delivered on schedule.
- Energy transition and gridstailwind
Regulators and policymakers increasingly recognise the role of grids in the energy transition, which could favour investment in expansion and reinforcement.
- Shift in investor preferencesheadwind
Investors favoured cyclical sectors in the last quarter, and rising interest rates reduced utility valuations, which could limit access to capital.
- Need for additional capitalmixed
The group announced an equity package of 2,2 billion EUR, which could support investment funding but implies dilution for existing shareholders.
Competitive position
The group operates in a regulated framework where direct competition for existing grids is limited. Competition arises mainly for new interconnection projects and international consultancy contracts, where European energy firms face similar capital requirements.
- TenneT
European electricity transmission operator active in similar grid and offshore wind projects in Northern Europe.
- National Grid
Utility with electricity transmission activities in several countries, competing for infrastructure projects.
- Terna
Italian electricity transmission operator with comparable grid modernisation projects.
- Red Eléctrica
Spanish transmission operator involved in grid expansion and interconnection investments.
News & filings
In the press
- Elia Lands €1 Billion EIB Loan for Belgian Offshore Energy IslandYahoo Finance — News · 08 Sept 2026 · EN
- Turul României aduce la start 23 de echipe din 16 țări și una dintre marile figuri ale ciclismului mondial: Elia Viviani, în stafful echipei naționale a ItalieiProfit.ro · 27 Aug 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Elia Group NV · 31 Dec 2024
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.