olivLaw · European equity research
Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. GALP.LS
Portugal · Euronext Lisbon · Vertical: Listed companies from Portugal
Galp Energia is an integrated Iberian energy company active in upstream exploration and production, refining, trading of oil products, natural gas and electricity, and solar and other renewables. It is adapting its portfolio toward multi-energy solutions, and its retail network in the Iberian Peninsula, with 1243 service stations, and the pace of its renewables growth are the factors that matter now.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. (GALP.LS) stock was 19.70 EUR (−0.76% on the day), with market capitalisation 14.6 bn EUR, P/E 13.0 on diluted EPS of 1.51 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.57%, beta 0.09, 52-week range 13.96–23.18 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 32.2
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 19.24 – 23.86
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.10 · band width 21.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 21.66 / 19.93
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.56 / -0.30
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −9.9% | +0.4% | −10.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −1.1% | −3.3% | +2.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | +4.3% | +4.0% | +0.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +34.7% | +8.1% | +26.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +11.1% | +10.7% | +0.4 pp | −10.1% |
| 3 years | +36.0% | +50.1% | −14.1 pp | +10.3% |
| 5 years | +111.4% | +43.6% | +67.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 9.7, median 10.7, max 11.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +7.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.36 | 1.51 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +11.0% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 2.4 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- 3.1 bn EUR
- Net debt
- 725.0 m EUR
- Equity
- 5.2 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 15.3 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.59x
- Current ratio
- 1.68x
- ROE
- 20.7%
- ROA
- 7.0%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 7.5 bn | 6.2 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 6.2 bn | 6.3 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 44.0 m | 44.0 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 695.0 m | 571.0 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 16.8 bn | 15.3 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 3.1 bn | 3.1 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 4.4 bn | 3.7 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 11.2 bn | 10.2 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 5.6 bn | 5.2 bn | esef· 22 Oct 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 764.7 m | 741.7 m | esef· 22 Oct 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 3 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 14.6 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
21% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 15.32 – 23.47 EUR.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E15.32 – 23.47 (Mid 18.08)7 companies used · median multiple 12.0x · quartiles 10.1x – 15.5xCOR.LS, CTT.LS, EGL.LS, JMT.LS, NVG.LS, SEM.LS, TDSA.LS
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate4.22 – 5.75 (Mid 4.86)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.7x | 73 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 13.0x | 50 (vs peers) | 50% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.7% | 24 (on a fixed band) | 30% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial73/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial24/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial50/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. (GALP.LS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 24.6%.
The estimated value range is 15.32–23.47 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 18.08 EUR, the price of 19.70 EUR leaves a potential of -8.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -9.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 20.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 1.7x
What contradicts it
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.7%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Portugal · same country · compared with 10 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMT.LSJerónimo Martins Sgps SA | 12.2 bn | 18.9 | 20.5% | 1.8% | +7.6% | −5% / −14% |
| NVG.LSThe Navigator Company, S.A. | 2.2 bn | 15.1 | 10.5% | 7.3% | −5.7% | +1% / −19% |
| SEM.LSSemapa - Sociedade De Investimento E Gestão, Sgps, S.A. | 1.6 bn | 10.1 | 9.3% | 7.4% | −1.6% | +18% / +46% |
| EGL.LSMota - Engil, Sgps S.A. | 1.4 bn | 10.2 | 44.7% | 2.5% | −10.9% | −6% / +20% |
| COR.LSCorticeira Amorim, Sgps, S.A. | 889.3 m | 16.0 | 6.6% | 6.5% | −8.3% | −1% / −26% |
| CTT.LSCtt - Correios De Portugal S.A. | 607.2 m | 12.0 | 20.1% | 4.5% | +16.9% | −35% / +28% |
| NBA.LSNovabase - Sociedade Gestora De Participações Sociais S.A. | 261.8 m | 51.1 | 8.8% | 4.4% | −7.2% | −19% / +35% |
| TDSA.LSTeixeira Duarte, S.A. | 173.0 m | 3.5 | 34.1% | 7.1% | −8.9% | −39% / +485% |
| ESON.LSEstoril-Sol, SGPS S.A. | 32.2 m | — | -25.2% | -20.3% | −2.4% | −31% / −63% |
| RAM.LSRamada Investimentos E Indústria, S.A. | — | — | 8.1% | 85.9% | +0.6% | −14% / +0% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GALP.LS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Galp Energia is an integrated Iberian energy company active in upstream exploration and production, refining, trading of oil products, natural gas and electricity, and solar and other renewables. It is adapting its portfolio toward multi-energy solutions, and its retail network in the Iberian Peninsula, with 1243 service stations, and the pace of its renewables growth are the factors that matter now 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Galp has vertical integration across the energy chain, from production and refining to retail and renewables, which enables synergies between segments.
- The Iberian retail network is extensive, and the company holds a market-leading position in Portugal.
- The renewables portfolio includes solar capacity in operation and projects under construction, with a realised price described as advantageous.
Weaknesses
- Refining and trading activities depend on raw material price volatility and the geopolitical context.
- Most operated sites are in high water stress areas, which exposes the company to physical risks.
- The wind and storage portfolio is still at early development stages, without large-scale capacity in operation.
Opportunities
- Growing demand for electric mobility and lower-carbon fuels could support new revenue lines.
- Hybridising solar with batteries could raise the value of existing assets if projects are completed as planned.
- Long-term LNG contracts with diversified sources could support access to new markets.
Threats
- Geopolitical tensions and crude price swings could affect margins and sales volumes.
- Regulatory and environmental requirements could raise operating costs.
- Intense competition in retail and renewables could reduce prices and market share.
Risks
- Crude and gas price volatilityhigh
Rapid price changes could affect refining and trading margins, especially in a tense geopolitical context.
- Water stress in operationsmedium
Many sites are in water-scarce areas, and new units could raise demand and costs, with a risk of production interruptions.
- Execution of renewable projectsmedium
Delays in building solar and wind projects could postpone the revenues expected from renewables.
- Dependence on long-term supply contractsmedium
LNG supply depends on terminals and projects in the US and Nigeria, and delays or contract changes could affect supply.
- Regulatory and compliance riskslow
Changes in energy and climate regulation could impose additional costs or operating restrictions.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If solar and storage projects enter operation on schedule, renewable revenues could grow considerably.
- A leading position in Portuguese fuel retail, combined with the charging network, could support customer loyalty.
- Integration across refining, trading and renewables could cushion the effects of price volatility.
What would break the thesis
- If oil and gas prices fluctuate sharply, margins could be affected and results harder to predict.
- Delays in wind and storage projects could reduce the near-term impact of diversification on revenues.
- Environmental pressures, including water stress, could raise costs and limit refinery expansion.
What to watch
- Commissioning of solar capacity under construction in Spain and Portugal2026-2027
- Progress of the 300 MW wind projects in pre-construction2026
- Third-party gas volumes in Brazil and evolution of gas sales2026
- Growth of the charging network and electricity volumes for mobilitynext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Galp runs an integrated energy chain across Upstream, Industrial, Commercial and Renewables, supported by an Energy Management division that handles crude supply, oil products and natural gas. In 2025 the company marketed 35 mbbl of crude from its own production in Brazil, with 76% going to China, and sold 15 mton of oil products 1. The Commercial division sells oil products, natural gas and electricity, and its Iberian network counts 1243 service stations 1.
Galp's strategy combines refining, commercial sales and renewables so that synergies between segments offset market volatility. The company sourced crude from 9 countries, and in 2025 medium and heavy crudes made up 69% of total crude processed 1. Galp aims to keep its core businesses competitive and to capture new sources of value, including long-term LNG contracts from the US and Nigeria 1.
On renewables, Galp is building a portfolio that is predominantly solar in the Iberian Peninsula, with 1.7 GW in operation and wind and battery storage projects at various stages 1. The company focuses on hybridising its assets and on selective portfolio development with disciplined capital allocation 1.
Segments
Commercial
Commercial offers an integrated range of oil products, natural gas and electricity, plus convenience services and electric mobility. The division sold 7.3 mton of oil products and 16.5 TWh of natural gas 1. The retail network counts 1243 sites in the Iberian Peninsula and over 9300 charging points for electric vehicles 1.
Renewables
Renewables aims to build an integrated renewable energy platform, with 1.7 GW of installed solar capacity in the Iberian Peninsula and about 400 MW under construction 1. In 2025 the segment exported 2.1 TWh of renewable energy at a realised price of 42 €/MWh 1. Wind and battery storage projects are in development or construction 1.
Market context
Galp operates in oil, gas and electricity markets in the Iberian Peninsula, Africa and Brazil. The company exports oil products, mainly gasoline, fuel oil and naphtha, and part of these exports reach the US East Coast, which remains a relevant market for heavy gasoline components 1. In Brazil, third-party gas volumes reached about 11 TWh in 2025 1.
The energy market is moving under geopolitical uncertainty and price volatility, and Galp noted in its 2025 report an unprecedented Iberian blackout and a revision of its sustainability materiality assessment 1. Demand for electric mobility and lower-carbon fuels is growing in the Iberian Peninsula 1.
Trends
- Shift toward renewable energytailwind
Solar expansion and hybrid projects in the Iberian Peninsula could support growing renewable revenues, if projects under construction enter operation on schedule 1.
- Price volatility and geopoliticsmixed
The demanding geopolitical context of 2025 affected oil and gas markets, and fluctuations could influence refining and trading margins 1.
- Electric mobilitytailwind
Growth of the charging network, with over 9300 points, could open new revenue streams if demand for electric vehicles keeps rising in Portugal and Spain 1.
- Water and environmental pressureheadwind
Most Galp sites are in areas of high water stress, and adding new units at the refinery could increase water demand and operating costs 1.
Competitive position
Galp competes with other integrated European operators and with oil and utility companies active in the Iberian Peninsula, both in retail and in renewable energy. In Portugal the company is the fuel market leader, but competition in retail and convenience is intense 1.
In renewables, Galp is compared with European producers and reports a realised-price advantage against European peers 1. The source does not name other competitors in this passage, so the list below is limited to what the report contains 1.
- European integrated oil and gas operators
Companies active in refining, trading and renewables in Europe, comparable to Galp in its main segments, not named in the source.
- Iberian fuel retail operators
Competing networks of service stations and convenience stores in Portugal and Spain that compete with Galp in mobility.
- European solar energy developers
Photovoltaic project developers competing for power contracts and land in the Iberian Peninsula.
- Electric vehicle charging operators
Companies running charging networks in Portugal and Spain that compete with Galp in electric mobility.
News & filings
In the press
- Venture Global Loses LNG Arbitration to Portugal's GalpOil Price · 09 Oct 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202522 Oct 2026
- Annual report 202522 Oct 2026
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.