olivLaw · European equity research
ING Groep N.V. INGA.AS
Netherlands · Euronext Amsterdam · ISIN NL0011821202 · Vertical: Listed companies from Netherlands
ING Groep N.V. is an international bank whose main activity is retail banking, attracting deposits and lending through mortgages, business and consumer loans in several European countries and beyond. In 2025, net core lending growth reached €38.6 billion and deposits grew by €30.1 billion, showing the bank strengthening its balance sheet under its growth strategy.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, ING Groep N.V. (INGA.AS) stock was 29.23 EUR (+0.45% on the day), with market capitalisation 87.2 bn EUR, P/E 13.8 on diluted EPS of 2.12 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 4.45%, beta 1.15, 52-week range 21.38–32.31 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 47.7
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 27.88 – 30.57
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.50 · band width 9.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 30.54 / 27.25
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.53 / -0.56
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −6.1% | −0.6% | −5.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −5.2% | −4.2% | −1.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | +13.5% | +4.3% | +9.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | +21.7% | +7.5% | +14.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +31.9% | +9.9% | +22.0 pp | −0.2% |
| 3 years | +137.3% | +49.8% | +87.5 pp | +2.2% |
| 5 years | +119.5% | +42.8% | +76.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 4-quarter history (min 6.6, median 9.5, max 11.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 18.6 bn | 22.6 bn | 22.6 bn | 23.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +21.6% | +0.2% | +1.9% |
| Net income | 3.7 bn | 7.3 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.3 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +98.3% | −12.3% | −1.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.01 | 2.04 | 1.98 | 2.12 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +102.0% | −2.9% | +7.1% |
| net % | 19.8% | 32.3% | 28.3% | 27.5% |
| Free cash flow | -11.3 bn | -11.6 bn | -22.9 bn | -6.7 bn |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 54.1 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 51.0 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 1,054.4 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 12.4%
- ROA
- 0.6%
- FCF margin
- -29.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 18.6 bn | 22.6 bn | 22.6 bn | 23.0 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 5.5 bn | 10.5 bn | 9.3 bn | 9.1 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 1.7 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.5 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 3.7 bn | 7.3 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.3 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.01 | 2.04 | 1.98 | 2.12 | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.86 | 0.83 | 1.20 | 1.30 | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 95.4 bn | 93.0 bn | 69.1 bn | 54.1 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | — | esef· 11 Mar 2025verified |
| Total assets | — | 975.6 bn | 1,020.5 bn | 1,054.4 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 923.4 bn | 969.2 bn | 1,003.5 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 50.4 bn | 52.2 bn | 51.3 bn | 51.0 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 3.6 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.0 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -11.1 bn | -11.3 bn | -22.5 bn | -6.4 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 231.0 m | 246.0 m | 332.0 m | 351.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -11.3 bn ≈ | -11.6 bn ≈ | -22.9 bn ≈ | -6.7 bn ≈ | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -5.3 bn | -8.5 bn | -6.0 bn | -15.7 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 4.6 bn | 18.4 bn | 5.4 bn | 8.2 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 3.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.9 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | 3.5 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.7 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 87.2 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
54% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 17.70 – 54.41 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E22.38 – 54.41 (Mid 30.76)16 companies used · median multiple 14.5x · quartiles 10.6x – 25.7xAALB.AS, ACOMO.AS, AD.AS, ADYEN.AS, AKZA.AS, ARCAD.AS, ASM.AS, ASML.AS, AXS.AS, BAMNB.AS, BNJ.AS, CRBN.AS, CTAC.AS, ECMPA.AS, FFARM.AS, HAL.AS
- Dividend discount (DDM)17.70 – 24.14 (Mid 20.42)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 27.5% | 89 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -106.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 7.5% | 62 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 28.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 13.8x | 71 (vs peers) | 19% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -7.7% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 8.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth81/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality44/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ING GROEP N.V. (INGA.AS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 23.0 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth 1.9%; net margin 27.5%; ROE 12.7%.
The estimated value range is 20.04–39.27 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 25.59 EUR, the price of 29.23 EUR leaves a potential of -12.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -14.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 27.5%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 28.0%
- P/E (TTM): 13.8x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 8.7%
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: -106.4%
- FCF yield: -7.7%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Netherlands · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML.ASASML Holding N.V. | 485.6 bn | 47.6 | 44.2% | 31.3% | +15.6% | +38% / +101% |
| INGA.ASIng Groep N.V. | 87.2 bn | 13.8 | 12.7% | 27.5% | +1.9% | +31% / +127% |
| DSFIR.ASDSM-Firmenich AG | 33.7 bn | 120.5 | 1.2% | 2.2% | +20.4% | +60% / +30% |
| AD.ASKoninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V. | 31.2 bn | 13.9 | 15.3% | 2.5% | +3.4% | −3% / +30% |
| ASM.ASASM International N.V. | 31.2 bn | 43.3 | 18.7% | 22.8% | +8.2% | +34% / +35% |
| ADYEN.ASAdyen N.V. | 28.1 bn | 26.6 | 22.3% | 40.1% | +18.9% | −33% / −17% |
| HAL.ASHAL Trust | 15.5 bn | 9.7 | 10.5% | 12.8% | +1.2% | +22% / +47% |
| EXO.ASExor N.V. | 15.0 bn | — | -10.6% | — | −100.0% | +1% / −18% |
| BESI.ASBE Semiconductor Industries N.V. | 11.2 bn | 84.9 | 28.7% | 22.3% | −2.7% | +8% / +10% |
| AKZA.ASAkzo Nobel N.V. | 10.7 bn | 17.0 | 13.8% | 6.3% | −5.2% | +12% / −11% |
| AALB.ASAalberts N.V. | 4.5 bn | 25.4 | 7.2% | 5.7% | −5.3% | +48% / +13% |
| ARCAD.ASArcadis N.V. | 4.2 bn | 20.2 | 18.3% | 4.3% | −2.4% | +24% / +2% |
| BNJ.ASBanijay Group N.V. | 3.4 bn | 13.8 | 343.8% | 5.1% | +1.6% | −11% / −8% |
| BAMNB.ASKoninklijke BAM Groep N.V. | 3.3 bn | 41.8 | 9.1% | 1.3% | +2.9% | +47% / +400% |
| BFIT.ASBasic-Fit N.V. | 2.0 bn | 138.2 | 3.6% | 1.0% | +16.9% | +7% / +16% |
| CRBN.ASCorbion N.V. | 1.6 bn | 8.3 | 27.3% | 14.9% | +1.9% | +40% / +55% |
| ECMPA.ASEurocommercial Properties N.V. | 1.4 bn | 11.2 | 5.9% | 45.4% | +4.2% | −4% / +19% |
| FUR.ASFugro N.V. | 985.3 m | — | -1.5% | -1.1% | −18.8% | −0% / −49% |
| ACOMO.ASAcomo N.V. | 685.9 m | 15.2 | 10.7% | 3.3% | +7.6% | −3% / +37% |
| FAST.ASFastned B.V. | 663.0 m | — | -28.2% | -21.7% | +66.1% | +60% / +25% |
| FFARM.ASForFarmers N.V. | 479.4 m | 9.6 | 14.5% | 1.6% | +14.8% | +22% / +123% |
| BRNL.ASBrunel International N.V. | 383.2 m | 125.5 | 1.0% | 0.3% | −10.8% | −6% / −29% |
| ENVI.ASEnvipco Holding N.V. | 224.1 m | — | -12.7% | -11.9% | −20.8% | −25% / +47% |
| ALFEN.ASAlfen N.V. | 219.8 m | — | -0.1% | -0.0% | −10.7% | −4% / −78% |
| CMCOM.ASCM.com N.V. | 192.5 m | — | -22.2% | -1.5% | −5.4% | +23% / −30% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for INGA.AS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 17.79 Total return -36% · Per year -36% | 31.41 Total return 12% · Per year 12% | 47.25 Total return 67% · Per year 67% |
| 3 years | 18.31 Total return -26% · Per year -10% | 36.27 Total return 40% · Per year 12% | 59.76 Total return 124% · Per year 31% |
| 5 years | 18.84 Total return -17% · Per year -4% | 41.89 Total return 71% · Per year 11% | 75.58 Total return 196% · Per year 24% |
- Exit P/E± 9.07
- Net margin± 6.35
- Annual revenue growth± 5.07
- Annual dilution± 0.53
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
ING Groep N.V. is an international bank whose main activity is retail banking, attracting deposits and lending through mortgages, business and consumer loans in several European countries and beyond. In 2025, net core lending growth reached €38.6 billion and deposits grew by €30.1 billion, showing the bank strengthening its balance sheet under its growth strategy.
SWOT
Strengths
- The base of mobile primary customers is large and growing, and the group holds a solid position in retail banking across several countries 1.
- Balanced growth in lending and deposits shows good capacity to finance the balance sheet 1.
- The independent external audit confirms that financial reports comply with IFRS and ESEF requirements 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- Demand for investment and digital trading products could generate additional fee income.
- Financing of renewable energy and energy-efficient renovations may open new lending segments 1.
- Growth markets in Central Europe and Türkiye could support expansion of loan volumes.
Threats
- Competitive pressure on deposit rates could limit margins over the medium term.
- Regulatory changes and higher deposit guarantee contributions could raise costs.
- Risks linked to high-emitting sectors and loans to small and mid-sized businesses could increase provisions.
Risks
- Credit risk on business and consumer loansmedium
Net additions to loan loss provisions rose year-on-year, mainly from business and consumer lending 1. A weaker economy could lead to further provisions.
- Pressure on interest marginsmedium
Normalisation of liability margins reduced commercial net interest income 1. If competitive pressure persists, profitability could be affected.
- Regulatory costsmedium
Deposit guarantee contributions and other regulatory costs rose in some markets 1, and legislative changes could add further burdens.
- Climate transition riskhigh
The group acknowledges challenges in high-emitting sectors such as oil and gas, cement and steel, where policies and technologies may slow the transition 1.
- Sustainability reporting uncertaintylow
The sustainability statement notes data with high measurement uncertainty and the absence of sector-specific guidance, which limits comparability 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Balanced growth in lending and deposits, together with expanding fee income, could support profitability if the trend holds 1.
- High returns in retail banking and a large base of mobile primary customers provide a solid platform for growth 1.
- A position in growth markets and limited exposure to high-emitting sectors could support more stable growth.
What would break the thesis
- Pressure on deposit margins and rate competition could limit the growth of net interest income.
- Higher regulatory costs and deposit guarantee contributions could reduce profit margins in some markets 1.
- An economic slowdown could lead to higher provisions for business and consumer loans, which have already risen 1.
What to watch
- Development of deposit margins and commercial net interest income2026
- Level of net additions to loan loss provisionsQ1 2027
- Deposit guarantee contributions and regulatory costs2026
- Development of fee income from investment productsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
ING Groep N.V. is the holding company of the ING banking group, and its annual report describes an organisation structured into retail banking segments, with activities in the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Germany and other markets, including Spain, Italy, Australia, Poland, Romania and Türkiye 1. The core activity is attracting customer savings and financing customers through mortgages, business and consumer loans. In 2025 the group reported over 15 million mobile primary customers 1. The retail banking segment generated a result before taxation of €6,554 million 1, and figures are reported under IFRS, as the external audit confirms 1.
Segments
Retail Banking (total)
The main segment recorded total income growth of 1.9 percent in 2025 and a return on equity of 21.7 percent 1. Growth was supported by lending and deposit volumes, while costs rose moderately. Net additions to loan loss provisions amounted to €754 million, equal to 15 basis points of average customer lending 1.
Market context
The group operates in mature European banking markets and in growth markets such as Poland, Romania and Türkiye. The mortgage and deposit markets are key segments, and 2025 performance shows sustained demand for lending as well as savings and investment products 1.
Trends
- Growth in investment productstailwind
Customers opened more investment accounts and traded more actively, which pushed fee income higher 1. The trend could continue if digital engagement remains strong.
- Normalisation of liability marginsmixed
Deposit margins normalised, reducing commercial net interest income in some markets 1. The effect is mixed, as volume growth partly offset the margin decline.
- Regulatory and deposit guarantee costsheadwind
Contributions to deposit guarantee schemes and regulatory costs affected results in markets such as Belgium and Germany 1. If these contributions rise, pressure on profitability could increase.
- Climate transitionmixed
The group has reduced exposure to upstream oil and gas and supports renewable power financing, which may open new opportunities while adding risks in high-emitting sectors 1.
Competitive position
The group competes with other universal and retail banks in Europe, especially in mortgage and savings markets. The analysed sources do not name competitors explicitly, so the list below reflects general categories of players active in the same segments.
- European retail banks
Competitors in mortgage and deposit segments in the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany, not explicitly identified in the analysed sources.
- Banks active in Spain and Italy
Players competing in mortgage and consumer lending in the southern European region.
- Banks in Poland and Romania
Local competitors serving the same customer categories in the group's growth markets.
- Digital investment platforms
Competition in investment and trading products, where the group recorded fee growth.
News & filings
In the press
- Marieke Blom, Chief Economist şi Global Head of Research al ING Group, şi Valentin Tătaru, Economist Şef ING Bank România: România, „copilul înzestrat” al Europei-un potenţial economic încă insuficient valorificatZiarul Financiar · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Peter-Paul Ekelschot, Global Lead Low Carbon Solutions, ING Group: în România, disponibilitatea stocării dioxidului de carbon este enormă. Înseamnă că se poate crea un hub pentru ţările vecine care nu au capacităţi de stocareZiarul Financiar · 20 May 2026 · RO
- Erwin Nederkoorn, ING Group: Am văzut proiecte de biocombustibili anulate în Olanda, dar poate că piaţa nu era pregătită. Pentru bancheri cel mai important este să vadă cumpărătorulZiarul Financiar · 20 May 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202504 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202411 Mar 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / ING Groep N.V. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.