olivLaw · European equity research
Koninklijke KPN N.V. KPN.AS
Netherlands · Euronext Amsterdam · ISIN NL0000009082 · Vertical: Listed companies from Netherlands
KPN is the Dutch telecoms and digital infrastructure operator, running fixed and mobile networks and serving consumers, businesses and wholesale customers. The company pursues its Connect, Activate & Grow strategy in a market of intense competition, price pressure and sector regulation, with unrelated income in the Netherlands of 5,809 million € in 2025.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Koninklijke KPN N.V. (KPN.AS) stock was 4.45 EUR (+1.00% on the day), with market capitalisation 18.1 bn EUR, P/E 21.2 on diluted EPS of 0.21 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.64%, beta -0.09, 52-week range 3.79–4.87 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 72.4
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 3.80 – 4.46
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.98 · band width 16.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 4.08 / 4.37
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.10 / 0.06
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +14.5% | −0.6% | +15.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | +9.3% | −4.2% | +13.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | −2.6% | +4.3% | −6.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +11.9% | +7.5% | +4.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +14.2% | +9.9% | +4.2 pp | −0.2% |
| 3 years | +39.5% | +49.8% | −10.3 pp | +2.2% |
| 5 years | +68.9% | +42.8% | +26.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 15.6, median 17.6, max 18.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.4 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +3.0% | +3.5% |
| Net income | 844.0 m | 848.0 m | 855.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +0.5% | +0.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | 0.0% | +5.0% |
| net % | 15.5% | 15.1% | 14.7% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 405.0 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 6.3 bn EUR
- Net debt
- 5.9 bn EUR
- Equity
- 3.6 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 12.7 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- 1.76x
- Current ratio
- 0.64x
- ROE
- 24.1%
- ROA
- 6.8%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.4 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.8 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | — | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | — | 4.2 bn ≈ | 4.3 bn ≈ | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
| Operating income | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | — | 849.0 m | 876.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | — | 2.2 bn ≈ | 2.2 bn ≈ | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 266.0 m | 279.0 m | 267.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 245.0 m | 238.0 m | 217.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 844.0 m | 848.0 m | 855.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.21 | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | — | 0.07 | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 608.0 m | 662.0 m | 405.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 553.0 m | 546.0 m | 575.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 43.0 m | 45.0 m | 41.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 5.9 bn | 6.2 bn | 6.6 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 12.3 bn | 12.5 bn | 12.7 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 497.0 m | 899.0 m | 396.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 5.4 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.9 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 2.0 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.1 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.6 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.6 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 4.2 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.1 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Investing cash flow | -1.4 bn | -1.4 bn | -1.4 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -606.0 m | -769.0 m | -1.2 bn | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 300.0 m | 200.0 m | 250.0 m | esef· 04 Mar 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 47 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 18.1 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Quality76
- Returns20
- Balance sheet37
- Valuation44
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.99 – 5.91 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDA3.67 – 5.91 (Mid 4.41)5 companies used · median multiple 10.6x · quartiles 9.3x – 13.3xARCAD.AS, BAMNB.AS, BNJ.AS, BRNL.AS, CMCOM.AS
- Peers: P/E2.22 – 5.39 (Mid 3.05)16 companies used · median multiple 14.5x · quartiles 10.6x – 25.7xAALB.AS, ACOMO.AS, AD.AS, ADYEN.AS, AKZA.AS, ARCAD.AS, ASM.AS, ASML.AS, AXS.AS, BAMNB.AS, BNJ.AS, CRBN.AS, CTAC.AS, ECMPA.AS, FFARM.AS, HAL.AS
- Dividend discount (DDM)0.99 – 1.35 (Mid 1.15)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 47/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 11.8% | 73 (vs peers) | 16% |
| Net margin · Quality | 14.7% | 81 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 2.6x | 40 (vs peers) | 16% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 5.1x | 56 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 21.2x | 48 (vs peers) | 16% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 10.7x | 40 (vs peers) | 16% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.4% | 20 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet37/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality76/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial20/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation44/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Koninklijke KPN N.V. (KPN.AS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.8 bn EUR in 2025; YoY growth 3.5%; net margin 14.7%; ROE 24.1%; net debt/EBITDA 2.6x.
The estimated value range is 2.22–5.39 EUR per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 3.05 EUR, the price of 4.45 EUR leaves a potential of -31.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -46.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 47/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 11.8%
- Net margin: 14.7%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.6x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.4%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Netherlands · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML.ASASML Holding N.V. | 485.6 bn | 47.6 | 44.2% | 31.3% | +15.6% | +38% / +101% |
| DSFIR.ASDSM-Firmenich AG | 33.7 bn | 120.5 | 1.2% | 2.2% | +20.4% | +60% / +30% |
| AD.ASKoninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V. | 31.2 bn | 13.9 | 15.3% | 2.5% | +3.4% | −3% / +30% |
| ASM.ASASM International N.V. | 31.2 bn | 43.3 | 18.7% | 22.8% | +8.2% | +34% / +35% |
| ADYEN.ASAdyen N.V. | 28.1 bn | 26.6 | 22.3% | 40.1% | +18.9% | −33% / −17% |
| KPN.ASKoninklijke KPN N.V. | 18.1 bn | 21.2 | 24.1% | 14.7% | +3.5% | +13% / +41% |
| HAL.ASHAL Trust | 15.5 bn | 9.7 | 10.5% | 12.8% | +1.2% | +22% / +47% |
| EXO.ASExor N.V. | 15.0 bn | — | -10.6% | — | −100.0% | +1% / −18% |
| BESI.ASBE Semiconductor Industries N.V. | 11.2 bn | 84.9 | 28.7% | 22.3% | −2.7% | +8% / +10% |
| AKZA.ASAkzo Nobel N.V. | 10.7 bn | 17.0 | 13.8% | 6.3% | −5.2% | +12% / −11% |
| AALB.ASAalberts N.V. | 4.5 bn | 25.4 | 7.2% | 5.7% | −5.3% | +48% / +13% |
| ARCAD.ASArcadis N.V. | 4.2 bn | 20.2 | 18.3% | 4.3% | −2.4% | +24% / +2% |
| BNJ.ASBanijay Group N.V. | 3.4 bn | 13.8 | 343.8% | 5.1% | +1.6% | −11% / −8% |
| BAMNB.ASKoninklijke BAM Groep N.V. | 3.3 bn | 41.8 | 9.1% | 1.3% | +2.9% | +47% / +400% |
| BFIT.ASBasic-Fit N.V. | 2.0 bn | 138.2 | 3.6% | 1.0% | +16.9% | +7% / +16% |
| CRBN.ASCorbion N.V. | 1.6 bn | 8.3 | 27.3% | 14.9% | +1.9% | +40% / +55% |
| ECMPA.ASEurocommercial Properties N.V. | 1.4 bn | 11.2 | 5.9% | 45.4% | +4.2% | −4% / +19% |
| FUR.ASFugro N.V. | 985.3 m | — | -1.5% | -1.1% | −18.8% | −0% / −49% |
| ACOMO.ASAcomo N.V. | 685.9 m | 15.2 | 10.7% | 3.3% | +7.6% | −3% / +37% |
| FAST.ASFastned B.V. | 663.0 m | — | -28.2% | -21.7% | +66.1% | +60% / +25% |
| FFARM.ASForFarmers N.V. | 479.4 m | 9.6 | 14.5% | 1.6% | +14.8% | +22% / +123% |
| BRNL.ASBrunel International N.V. | 383.2 m | 125.5 | 1.0% | 0.3% | −10.8% | −6% / −29% |
| ENVI.ASEnvipco Holding N.V. | 224.1 m | — | -12.7% | -11.9% | −20.8% | −25% / +47% |
| ALFEN.ASAlfen N.V. | 219.8 m | — | -0.1% | -0.0% | −10.7% | −4% / −78% |
| CMCOM.ASCM.com N.V. | 192.5 m | — | -22.2% | -1.5% | −5.4% | +23% / −30% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for KPN.AS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 2.60 Total return -40% · Per year -40% | 4.61 Total return 5% · Per year 5% | 6.94 Total return 58% · Per year 58% |
| 3 years | 2.47 Total return -41% · Per year -16% | 4.93 Total return 16% · Per year 5% | 8.16 Total return 90% · Per year 24% |
| 5 years | 2.35 Total return -41% · Per year -10% | 5.28 Total return 28% · Per year 5% | 9.60 Total return 128% · Per year 18% |
- Exit P/E± 1.23
- Net margin± 0.86
- Annual revenue growth± 0.72
- Annual dilution± 0.07
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
KPN is the Dutch telecoms and digital infrastructure operator, running fixed and mobile networks and serving consumers, businesses and wholesale customers. The company pursues its Connect, Activate & Grow strategy in a market of intense competition, price pressure and sector regulation, with unrelated income in the Netherlands of 5,809 million € in 2025 1.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- VAT dispute with tax authoritiesmedium
The company recorded a liability linked to VAT for the 2016 to 2018 period, and a negative outcome of the ongoing court proceedings could lead to a cash outflow 1.
- WBSO and Innovation Box eligibilitylow
Eligible hours for WBSO are volatile due to divestments, mergers, acquisitions and transformations, and the assessment of innovation activities may vary 1.
- Security restrictions and foreign controlmedium
Government measures on non-Western equipment and acquisitions of control over telecoms operators could limit the company's technology options 1.
- Sector regulation and network accessmedium
Binding commitments on access to fiber networks until 2030 and ACM investigations could affect market conditions 1.
- Competitive pressure in the business segmentmedium
The entry of international players and price pressure could compress margins in the SME and LCE segments 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the Connect, Activate & Grow strategy translates into better loyalty and fiber adoption, the company could strengthen service revenue 1.
- Its leading position in Dutch digital infrastructure and partnerships with global vendors could support the business offer 1.
- Expanding converged bundles and integrating artificial intelligence could improve efficiency and customer loyalty 1.
What to watch
- Development of competition in the business market and price pressure in SME2026
- ACM decision on competition in fixed internet below 100 Mb/s2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
KPN creates value through six categories of capital, including financial capital, future-proof infrastructure and mobile spectrum, a skilled workforce, loyal customers and strong supplier partnerships 1. Its business model delivers state-of-the-art networks, converged products, innovation and digitalization, protected privacy and security, and a responsible supply chain 1. The company presents itself as the leading Dutch digital infrastructure platform, aiming to connect everyone to a sustainable future 1.
Operations cover network deployment, performance monitoring, maintenance and cybersecurity, plus provision of mobile and fixed internet, communications and IT services including cloud 1. Products are distributed through KPN stores, retail partners and online platforms 1. The customer relationship runs largely through the MijnKPN app, being transformed into a digital companion 1.
Governance includes a Board of Management and a central Works Council with twelve decentralized works councils that discuss and approve policies 1. Dialogue with stakeholders, including regulators ACM, AP and RDI, is part of daily business 1.
Segments
Consumer customers
The consumer segment builds its offer around the Household 3.0 strategy, with fiber, unlimited mobile, the TV+ platform and bundled-in security 1. The company expanded Combivoordeel and offers free fiber speed upgrades for residential customers, aiming to strengthen loyalty 1.
Business customers
The business segment serves SMEs and large enterprises (LCE) with mobile, cloud, workplace services, 5G-based KPN Campus, CPaaS and IoT 1. Recognition from Microsoft and Cisco points to a competitive position in integrated business solutions 1.
Wholesale
Wholesale customers, meaning mobile virtual network operators, access KPN's fixed and mobile networks and prioritize network stability and compliance with data protection rules 1.
Market context
Trends
- New European regulationmixed
The AI Act, the Gigabit Infrastructure Act, the EU Data Act and the proposed Digital Networks Act could change requirements for networks and digital services, with the effect depending on transposition into Dutch law 1.
- Tighter security requirementsheadwind
Heightened government attention to non-Western vendors and to control over telecoms operators could limit equipment choices and acquisitions if restrictions are extended 1.
- Demand for fiber and converged servicestailwind
Rising fiber adoption and bundles with included security support service revenue if customers migrate from legacy networks 1.
- Economic pressure and inflationheadwind
Economic uncertainty and inflation shape customer behavior and could increase demand for low-cost offers, pressuring margins 1.
Competitive position
The company faces intense competition and persistent price pressure, particularly in the SME segment, and the entry of international players intensifies competition in the business market 1. KPN uses flanker brands for price-sensitive segments and the main KPN brand for premium customers 1.
- Other Dutch mobile network operators
The annual report refers to the other two mobile operators in the Netherlands, without detailing them 1.
- International players in the business market
The source mentions international players entering the Dutch business market, without naming them 1.
- Cloud and IT service providers
The source points to competition in the LCE segment, where customers seek integrated solutions, without naming firms 1.
- Virtual mobile network operators
Virtual mobile operators are both wholesale customers and potential competitors in the consumer segment, as described in the report 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202504 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202404 Mar 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Koninklijke KPN N.V. · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.