olivLaw · European equity research
AB "VILNIAUS BALDAI" VBL1L.VS
Lithuania · Nasdaq Vilnius · ISIN LT0000104267 · Vertical: Listed companies from Lithuania
AB 'Vilniaus baldai' manufactures furniture, almost entirely for one customer, IKEA, which accounted for about 98.8% of the company's sales in fiscal 2025. This dependence on a single buyer makes the health of the global economy and IKEA's demand highly relevant for the Lithuanian company.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, AB "VILNIAUS BALDAI" (VBL1L.VS) stock was 9.60 EUR (−1.54% on the day), with market capitalisation 37.4 m EUR, P/E 8.4 on diluted EPS of 1.14 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 7.91%, beta 0.00, 52-week range 9.20–11.80 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 45.1
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 9.51 – 10.01
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.18 · band width 5.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 9.77 / 10.20
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.04 / -0.02
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −3.0% | −0.6% | −2.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −1.5% | −4.2% | +2.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | −8.6% | +4.3% | −12.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | −15.0% | +7.5% | −22.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | −9.4% | +9.9% | −19.4 pp | +13.5% |
| 3 years | +48.8% | +49.8% | −1.0 pp | +52.1% |
| 5 years | +7.9% | +42.8% | −35.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 3.2, median 10.2, max 15.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 97.9 m | 97.3 m | 104.2 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −0.6% | +7.1% |
| Net income | 1.6 m | 10.0 m | 4.4 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +529.3% | −55.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.41 | 2.57 | 1.14 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +526.8% | −55.6% |
| net % | 1.6% | 10.3% | 4.3% |
| Free cash flow | 6.3 m | 9.5 m | 7.1 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Aug 2025
- Cash
- 322.0 k EUR
- Financial debt
- 4.0 m EUR
- Net debt
- 3.6 m EUR
- Equity
- 39.3 m EUR
- Total assets
- 82.9 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.10x
- Current ratio
- 1.25x
- ROE
- 11.5%
- ROA
- 5.3%
- FCF margin
- 6.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 97.9 m | 97.3 m | 104.2 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 90.1 m | 78.3 m | 91.1 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 7.7 m | 19.0 m | 13.1 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Operating income | 4.3 m | 13.3 m | 6.4 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 2.5 m | 2.7 m | 2.0 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.8 m | 10.6 m | 4.4 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Income tax | 195.0 k | 647.0 k | -21.0 k | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Net income | 1.6 m | 10.0 m | 4.4 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.41 | 2.57 | 1.14 | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.76 | esef· 16 Dec 2025derived |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 3.5 m | 3.9 m | 322.0 k | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Receivables | 7.3 m | 10.5 m | 11.3 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Inventories | 6.4 m | 9.6 m | 10.6 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Current assets | 18.2 m | 25.0 m | 23.8 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 61.3 m | 57.6 m | 57.3 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 109.0 k | 165.0 k | 344.0 k | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Total assets | 81.5 m | 84.6 m | 82.9 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 6.1 m | 7.1 m | 4.0 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 18.4 m | 19.5 m | 19.1 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 53.3 m | 46.7 m | 43.5 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Equity | 27.9 m | 37.9 m | 39.3 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 3.9 m | 3.9 m | 3.9 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 7.5 m | 10.3 m | 11.8 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Capex | 1.2 m | 791.0 k | 4.7 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 6.3 m ≈ | 9.5 m ≈ | 7.1 m ≈ | esef· 16 Dec 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.2 m | -748.0 k | -4.6 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -3.9 m | -9.2 m | -10.7 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 1.0 k | 0 | 3.0 m | esef· 16 Dec 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 71 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 37.4 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
- Quality73
- Returns100
- Balance sheet30
- Valuation74
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 8.08 – 54.72 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)33.78 – 54.72 (Mid 41.69)WACC 8.1% · starting FCFF 8.8 m EUR · terminal value share of EV 75%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E8.08 – 14.03 (Mid 9.05)11 companies used · median multiple 7.9x · quartiles 7.1x – 12.3xAKO1L.VS, APG1L.VS, GRG1L.VS, INR1L.VS, IVL1L.VS, KNE1L.VS, KNR1L.VS, LGD1L.VS, RSU1L.VS, VLP1L.VS, ZMP1L.VS
- Dividend discount (DDM)10.33 – 14.08 (Mid 11.92)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Attractive profile · Score 71/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 12.8% | 80 (vs peers) | 17% |
| Net margin · Quality | 4.3% | 33 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 160.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.2x | 26 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.2x | 37 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 8.4x | 54 (vs peers) | 17% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 19.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 7.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 41.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet30/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality73/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation74/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Akcinė bendrovė "VILNIAUS BALDAI" (VBL1L.VS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-08-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 104.2 m EUR in 2025; YoY growth 7.1%; net margin 4.3%; ROE 11.5%.
The estimated value range is 10.33–14.08 EUR per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 11.92 EUR, the price of 9.60 EUR leaves a potential of 24.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 19.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 71/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 12.8%
- FCF conversion: 160.4%
- FCF yield: 19.1%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 7.9%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 41.5%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: 3.2x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Lithuania · same country · compared with 15 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LGD1L.VSLitgrid Ab | 571.2 m | 16.7 | 13.0% | 8.0% | +14.2% | +38% / +67% |
| IVL1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "Invalda INVL" | 318.0 m | 7.0 | 19.7% | 230.8% | +44.6% | +21% / +165% |
| AKO1L.VSAB Akola group | 267.2 m | 7.2 | 10.5% | 2.5% | −4.4% | +4% / +58% |
| APG1L.VSAkcinė prekybos bendrovė "APRANGA" | 213.6 m | 13.2 | 23.9% | 5.3% | +4.9% | +22% / +44% |
| AMG1L.VSAB "Amber Grid" | 199.3 m | 120.0 | 0.8% | 2.0% | −6.4% | 0% / +4% |
| VLP1L.VSAb "vilkyškių Pieninė" | 184.2 m | 16.8 | 12.6% | 3.8% | +16.9% | +46% / +228% |
| KNE1L.VSAB "KN Energies" | 180.3 m | 9.9 | 10.8% | 17.3% | +12.3% | +41% / +139% |
| GRG1L.VSAB "Grigeo" | 131.7 m | 7.9 | 12.5% | 6.7% | +15.7% | +0% / +2% |
| RSU1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "ROKIŠKIO SŪRIS" | 130.5 m | 7.6 | 11.1% | 4.3% | +8.7% | −7% / +46% |
| ZMP1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "ŽEMAITIJOS PIENAS" | 117.1 m | 5.4 | 14.1% | 6.4% | +10.6% | +9% / +68% |
| KNR1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "Kauno energija" | 88.7 m | 11.4 | 7.6% | 9.1% | −0.3% | +16% / +124% |
| VBL1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "VILNIAUS BALDAI" | 37.4 m | 8.4 | 11.5% | 4.3% | +7.1% | −5% / +54% |
| INL1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "INVL Baltic Farmland" | 23.7 m | 29.0 | 4.1% | 91.6% | +6.7% | +12% / +1% |
| INR1L.VSSpecialioji uždarojo tipo nekilnojamojo turto investicinė bendrovė "INVL Baltic Real Estate" | 21.5 m | 5.9 | 13.7% | 89.4% | +2.8% | −15% / +34% |
| NTU1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "Novaturas" | 5.8 m | — | -64.2% | -3.8% | −3.6% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AUG1L.VSAUGA group, AB | — | — | -43.3% | -20.7% | −6.9% | +15% / −73% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for VBL1L.VS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 5.83 Total return -33% · Per year -33% | 10.29 Total return 16% · Per year 16% | 15.48 Total return 71% · Per year 71% |
| 3 years | 5.96 Total return -19% · Per year -7% | 11.81 Total return 50% · Per year 15% | 19.46 Total return 137% · Per year 33% |
| 5 years | 6.09 Total return -4% · Per year -1% | 13.55 Total return 90% · Per year 14% | 24.47 Total return 220% · Per year 26% |
- Exit P/E± 2.95
- Net margin± 2.07
- Annual revenue growth± 1.65
- Annual dilution± 0.17
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
AB 'Vilniaus baldai' manufactures furniture, almost entirely for one customer, IKEA, which accounted for about 98.8% of the company's sales in fiscal 2025. This dependence on a single buyer makes the health of the global economy and IKEA's demand highly relevant for the Lithuanian company.
SWOT
Strengths
- ISO 9001 and ISO 14001 quality and environmental certifications and FSC chain of custody.
- Hollow-core technology that reduces wood consumption and uses recycled materials.
- Sensor-based predictive maintenance that has allowed equipment issues to be detected before failures.
Weaknesses
- Very heavy dependence on a single customer, which makes revenue vulnerable to changes in that customer's business.
- Shortage of engineering specialists that limits development capacity.
- Exposure to raw material costs, which began rising toward the end of fiscal 2025.
Opportunities
- Diversifying customers and export markets, including beyond the US.
- Expanding the sensor network and predictive maintenance to raise equipment availability.
- Investment in production efficiency that could offset the effects of export tariffs.
Threats
- Tariffs on the US import market could reduce the competitiveness of European products.
- Changes in the global economy could alter the growth pace of the main customer.
- Geopolitical tensions could disrupt international trade flows.
Risks
- Single-customer dependencehigh
Sales depend almost entirely on IKEA, and a reduction in orders would have a major effect on revenue.
- US trade tariffsmedium
Tariffs on European products in the US market could affect exports, although management does not expect a significant short-term impact.
- Raw material costsmedium
Raw material prices began rising in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, which could affect margins.
- Shortage of qualified staffmedium
The shortage of engineering specialists is felt across the market and could limit production and investment.
- Environmental and cybersecurity risklow
Use of natural resources carries pollution risk, and the new IT system must be fully integrated to reduce cyber threats.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Quality and environmental certifications, hollow-core technology and predictive maintenance could support the company's efficiency and competitiveness over the long term.
- Management reports that the main production equipment is in good physical and operational condition, reducing the risk of unplanned production stops.
- If the new management system is fully integrated, the company could improve operational processes and information security.
What would break the thesis
- Near-total dependence on one customer makes results sensitive to any drop in orders.
- US tariffs and rising raw material prices could compress margins if these trends continue.
- The shortage of engineering specialists could limit the company's ability to grow production and modernise processes.
What to watch
- Evolution of orders from the main customer and its share of total sales2026
- Impact of US tariffs on export volumesnext annual report
- Development of raw material prices and marginsQ1 2026
- Full integration of the new enterprise management system2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The company, registered in Trakai, Lithuania, makes furniture, which made up 99.5% of sales in fiscal 2025 1. The rest of sales came from raw materials and raw material waste. Results are concentrated on one major customer, IKEA 1.
Production relies on hollow-core panel technology, which replaces solid wood with a core of recycled paper and reduces wood consumption. The company uses primary wood from responsibly managed forests and holds ISO 9001 and ISO 14001 certifications for quality and environment 1.
In 2025 the company introduced predictive maintenance, with sensors installed on production equipment, and replaced its enterprise management system with a new one operational from the start of fiscal 2026 1.
Segments
Furniture
Furniture accounts for nearly all of the company's sales and is produced mainly for the IKEA customer, with part of production exported to the United States 1.
Raw materials and waste
Sales of raw materials and waste are a very small part of revenue and do not materially change the company's profile 1.
Market context
The company competes with furniture manufacturers worldwide, and demand for its furniture depends on the growth pace of its main customer 1. The export market to the U.S. was affected in fiscal 2025 by tariffs on imports of products made in Europe 1.
Geopolitical changes influence international trade flows. Raw material prices steadily declined in the first three quarters of fiscal 2025 but began rising in the fourth quarter 1.
Trends
- US import tariffsheadwind
Tariffs on imports of European-made products into the US market could affect the company's exports, although management does not expect a significant short-term impact 1.
- Raw material pricesmixed
Raw material prices fell in the first three quarters of fiscal 2025 but began to rise in the fourth quarter, which could reduce margins if the trend continues 1.
- Digitalisation and predictive maintenancetailwind
The move from preventive to predictive maintenance and the new management system could improve production efficiency and cybersecurity 1.
- Shortage of engineering specialistsheadwind
A shortage of engineering specialists affects the whole labour market and education programmes do not meet real demand, which could slow investment and production growth 1.
Competitive position
The company states it faces competition from furniture manufacturers worldwide, without naming specific competitors in the sources reviewed 1.
Its competitive edge rests on production efficiency, hollow-core technology and environmental certifications rather than on a broad market position 1.
- European and Asian furniture manufacturers
General competitors named by the company, not identified by name in the annual report.
- US furniture manufacturers
Competitors in the US market, where the company exports part of its products.
- Furniture suppliers with certified supply chains
Companies competing on environmental and FSC certification criteria, which the company meets.
- Hollow-core furniture producers
Competitors using similar technologies to reduce wood consumption.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202516 Dec 2025
- Annual report 202516 Dec 2025
- Annual report 202403 Dec 2024
- Annual report 202303 Dec 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-08-31 (ESEF) · SEC / AB "VILNIAUS BALDAI" · 31 Aug 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.