olivLaw · US equity research
Adobe Inc. ADBE
Services-Prepackaged Software · SIC 7372 · Vertical: Services-Prepackaged Software (SIC 7372)
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is a software company selling creative, productivity and digital experience platforms, mostly on a subscription basis. Total revenue was 23.769 billion USD in fiscal 2025, and in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 revenue reached 6.76 billion USD, up 13%. Management links growth to AI-powered products, while the sources also show intense competitive pressure.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Adobe Inc. (ADBE) stock was 248.48 USD (+0.95% on the day), with market capitalisation 96.7 bn USD, P/E 13.9 on diluted EPS of 17.92 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.72, 52-week range 193.41–357.53 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 6.8 bn USD (+12.9% YoY), net income of 1.8 bn USD (+3.1% YoY), diluted EPS 4.62 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 49.1
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 232.94 – 266.03
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.47 · band width 13.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 252.78 / 249.71
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.58 / 0.93
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +4.1% | −1.1% | +5.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −4.2% | −0.5% | −3.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | −0.7% | +4.4% | −5.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | −29.0% | +12.3% | −41.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | −25.9% | +13.5% | −39.4 pp | −0.1% |
| 3 years | −55.9% | +76.4% | −132.3 pp | +25.4% |
| 5 years | −62.5% | +63.7% | −126.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 28 Aug 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.6 bn | 5.7 bn | 5.9 bn | 6.0 bn | 6.2 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.6 bn | 6.8 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 616.0 m | 622.0 m | 638.0 m | 642.0 m | 649.0 m | 664.0 m | 715.0 m | 763.0 m |
| Gross profit | 5.0 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.5 bn | 5.7 bn | 5.9 bn | 6.0 bn |
| Operating income | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 218.0 m | 217.0 m | 209.0 m ≈ | 208.0 m ≈ | 184.0 m | 174.0 m | 193.0 m ≈ | 215.0 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 50.0 m | 62.0 m | 68.0 m | 67.0 m | 66.0 m | 63.0 m | 65.0 m | 66.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn |
| Income tax | 308.0 m | 371.0 m | 410.0 m | 415.0 m | 408.0 m | 533.0 m | 526.0 m | 530.0 m |
| Net income | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 3.80 ≈ | 4.14 | 3.94 | 4.18 | 4.45 ≈ | 4.60 | 4.25 | 4.62 |
| Operating cash flow | 2.9 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.2 bn ≈ | 2.2 bn ≈ | 3.2 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.2 bn ≈ | 2.5 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 48.0 m | 26.0 m | 47.0 m ≈ | 72.0 m ≈ | 34.0 m | 37.0 m | 58.0 m ≈ | 85.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 2.5 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.5 bn ≈ | 2.1 bn ≈ | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.1 bn ≈ | 2.2 bn ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 14.8, median 48.6, max 74.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.0 bn | 11.2 bn | 12.9 bn | 15.8 bn | 17.6 bn | 19.4 bn | 21.5 bn | 23.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +23.7% | +23.7% | +15.2% | +22.7% | +11.5% | +10.2% | +10.8% | +10.5% |
| Net income | 2.6 bn | 3.0 bn | 5.3 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.6 bn | 7.1 bn |
| Net income YoY | +53.0% | +13.9% | +78.2% | −8.3% | −1.4% | +14.1% | +2.4% | +28.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 5.20 | 6.00 | 10.83 | 10.02 | 10.10 | 11.82 | 12.36 | 16.70 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +53.8% | +15.4% | +80.5% | −7.5% | +0.8% | +17.0% | +4.6% | +35.1% |
| net % | 28.7% | 26.4% | 40.9% | 30.5% | 27.0% | 28.0% | 25.9% | 30.0% |
| Free cash flow | 3.8 bn | 4.0 bn | 5.3 bn | 6.9 bn | 7.4 bn | 6.9 bn | 7.9 bn | 9.9 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 28 Nov 2025
- Cash
- 5.4 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 6.2 bn USD
- Net debt
- 779.0 m USD
- Equity
- 11.6 bn USD
- Total assets
- 29.5 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.53x
- Current ratio
- 1.00x
- ROE
- 55.4%
- ROA
- 23.9%
- FCF margin
- 41.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 12.9 bn | 15.8 bn | 17.6 bn | 19.4 bn | 21.5 bn | 23.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 11.1 bn | 13.9 bn | 15.4 bn | 17.1 bn | 19.1 bn | 21.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
| Operating income | 4.2 bn | 5.8 bn | 6.1 bn | 6.7 bn | 6.7 bn | 8.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 757.0 m | 788.0 m | 856.0 m | 872.0 m | 857.0 m | 818.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 5.0 bn ≈ | 6.6 bn ≈ | 7.0 bn ≈ | 7.5 bn ≈ | 7.6 bn ≈ | 9.5 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 116.0 m | 113.0 m | 112.0 m | 113.0 m | 169.0 m | 263.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 4.2 bn | 5.7 bn | 6.0 bn | 6.8 bn | 6.9 bn | 8.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
| Income tax | -1.1 bn | 883.0 m | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
| Net income | 5.3 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.6 bn | 7.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 10.83 | 10.02 | 10.10 | 11.82 | 12.36 | 16.70 | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 485.5 m | 481.0 m | 470.9 m | 459.1 m | 449.7 m | 427.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 4.5 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.2 bn | 7.1 bn | 7.6 bn | 5.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.4 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
| Current assets | 8.1 bn | 8.7 bn | 9.0 bn | 11.1 bn | 11.2 bn | 10.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 10.7 bn | 12.7 bn | 12.8 bn | 12.8 bn | 12.8 bn | 12.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.4 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.1 bn | 782.0 m | 495.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
| Total assets | 24.3 bn | 27.2 bn | 27.2 bn | 29.8 bn | 30.2 bn | 29.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 306.0 m | 312.0 m | 379.0 m | 314.0 m | 361.0 m | 417.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 0 | 500.0 m | 0 | 1.5 bn | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 4.1 bn | 4.1 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.1 bn | 6.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 5.5 bn | 6.9 bn | 8.1 bn | 8.3 bn | 10.5 bn | 10.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 11.0 bn | 12.4 bn | 13.1 bn | 13.3 bn | 16.1 bn | 17.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
| Equity | 13.3 bn † | 14.8 bn † | 14.1 bn † | 16.5 bn † | 14.1 bn † | 11.6 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 5.7 bn | 7.2 bn | 7.8 bn | 7.3 bn | 8.1 bn | 10.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
| Capex | 419.0 m | 348.0 m | 442.0 m | 360.0 m | 183.0 m | 179.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 5.3 bn ≈ | 6.9 bn ≈ | 7.4 bn ≈ | 6.9 bn ≈ | 7.9 bn ≈ | 9.9 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -414.0 m | -3.5 bn | -570.0 m | 776.0 m | 149.0 m | -1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -3.5 bn | -4.3 bn | -6.8 bn | -5.2 bn | -7.7 bn | -11.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 3.1 bn | 4.0 bn | 6.6 bn | 4.4 bn | 9.5 bn | 11.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Jan 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 75 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 96.7 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet39
- Valuation100
- Quality97
- Growth35
- Returns100
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 337.33 – 662.88 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)425.30 – 662.88 (Mid 516.92)WACC 9.0% · starting FCFF 10.8 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -19.3%
- Peers: EV/Sales337.33 – 491.39 (Mid 394.68)10 companies used · median multiple 6.0x · quartiles 5.1x – 7.4xADSK, CRM, INTU, NOW, PTC, RBLX, SNPS, SSNC, TTWO, TWLO
- Peers: EV/EBITDA421.83 – 567.56 (Mid 505.36)4 companies used · median multiple 19.8x · quartiles 16.6x – 22.2xADSK, CRM, PTC, SSNC
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Attractive profile · Score 75/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin · Quality | 89.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EBIT margin · Quality | 35.7% | 91 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF margin · Quality | 40.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 10.5% | 42 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth | 10.5% | 22 (vs peers) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.2x | 78 (vs peers) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| EV/Sales · Valuation | 3.8x | 100 (vs peers) | 17% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 11.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 9.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet39/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Growth35/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality97/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns100/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Valuation100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
Memo
ADOBE INC. (ADBE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-08-28.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 23.8 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 10.5%; net margin 28.0%; ROE 61.9%; net debt/EBITDA 0.2x.
The estimated value range is 421.83–567.56 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 505.36 USD, the price of 248.48 USD leaves a potential of 103.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 50.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 75/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Gross margin: 89.3%
- EBIT margin: 35.7%
- FCF margin: 40.8%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.2x
- EV/Sales: 3.8x
- FCF yield: 11.0%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 9.6%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Revenue growth (YoY): 10.5%
- Current ratio: 0.8x
Versus the vertical median
Services-Prepackaged Software (SIC 7372) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 23 companies
Only companies with a capitalisation between 13.2 bn and 842.4 bn (within 8× of the company's); 198 of the vertical were left out.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTRPalantir Technologies Inc. | 413.7 bn | 120.4 | 41.2% | 50.3% | +56.2% | +2% / +756% |
| ORCLOracle Corporation | 374.1 bn | 19.3 | 41.6% | 26.4% | +17.3% | −39% / +6% |
| CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | 246.8 bn | 1,120.4 | 1.3% | 1.1% | +21.7% | +89% / +307% |
| CRMSalesforce, Inc. | 186.9 bn | 20.7 | 19.4% | 22.0% | +9.6% | −1% / −10% |
| NOWServicenow, Inc. | 112.9 bn | 78.1 | 11.8% | 9.4% | +20.9% | −33% / −21% |
| SNOWSnowflake Inc. | 102.5 bn | — | -48.2% | -20.1% | +29.2% | +16% / +55% |
| ADBEAdobe Inc. | 96.7 bn | 13.9 | 61.9% | 28.0% | +10.5% | −26% / −56% |
| INTUIntuit Inc. | 95.3 bn | 21.7 | 23.6% | 21.3% | +13.9% | −44% / −38% |
| CDNSCadence Design Systems, Inc. | 90.4 bn | 65.5 | 22.9% | 22.5% | +14.1% | +6% / +21% |
| SNPSSynopsys Inc | 88.7 bn | 81.8 | 3.7% | 11.4% | +15.1% | +11% / −15% |
| ADSKAutodesk, Inc. | 56.4 bn | 35.0 | 53.9% | 21.1% | +17.5% | −11% / +24% |
| VEEVVeeva Systems Inc. | 50.3 bn | 50.8 | 14.4% | 29.3% | +16.3% | +29% / +78% |
| TTWOTake-Two Interactive Software, Inc. | 39.1 bn | — | -9.0% | -4.8% | +18.2% | −15% / +32% |
| RBLXRoblox Corporation | 35.3 bn | — | -478.2% | -16.5% | +35.8% | −48% / +25% |
| TWLOTwilio Inc. | 33.0 bn | 26.8 | 14.9% | 21.8% | +13.7% | +65% / +230% |
| MDBMongodb, Inc. | 26.5 bn | 449.1 | 2.0% | 2.1% | +22.8% | −1% / −21% |
| PTCPTC Inc. | 21.2 bn | 19.0 | 35.1% | 41.4% | +19.2% | +11% / +24% |
| UUnity Software Inc. | 18.7 bn | — | -18.9% | -29.0% | +2.0% | −0% / +44% |
| SSNCSs&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. | 18.7 bn | 22.9 | 12.7% | 13.2% | +6.6% | −7% / +41% |
| NTNXNutanix, Inc. | 17.2 bn | 12.3 | 37,460.2% | 52.8% | +12.4% | +33% / +48% |
| TYLTyler Technologies, Inc. | 16.8 bn | 53.3 | 10.5% | 13.5% | +9.1% | −10% / +4% |
| DOCUDocusign, Inc. | 15.0 bn | 49.1 | 17.8% | 9.8% | +8.2% | +16% / +87% |
| GWREGuidewire Software, Inc. | 14.0 bn | 104.7 | 10.5% | 9.4% | +22.7% | −21% / +71% |
| DTDynatrace, Inc. | 13.4 bn | 87.0 | 6.4% | 7.4% | +18.8% | +5% / −13% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ADBE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 162.71 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 286.87 Total return 15% · Per year 15% | 431.03 Total return 73% · Per year 73% |
| 3 years | 177.60 Total return -29% · Per year -11% | 350.42 Total return 41% · Per year 12% | 575.23 Total return 131% · Per year 32% |
| 5 years | 193.87 Total return -22% · Per year -5% | 428.04 Total return 72% · Per year 11% | 767.66 Total return 209% · Per year 25% |
- Exit P/E± 87.60
- Net margin± 61.32
- Annual revenue growth± 47.59
- Annual dilution± 5.15
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is a software company selling creative, productivity and digital experience platforms, mostly on a subscription basis. Total revenue was 23.769 billion USD in fiscal 2025 1, and in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 revenue reached 6.76 billion USD, up 13% 3. Management links growth to AI-powered products, while the sources also show intense competitive pressure.
SWOT
Strengths
- Adobe has a broad portfolio of well-known products and a large subscriber base, with predictable recurring revenue 1.
- The company has built AI features into many products and reports strong growth in AI-first ARR 13.
- Adobe Experience Platform provides a customer data foundation linking creative and marketing products 1.
Weaknesses
- The company operates in a highly competitive market where prices and margins can be pressed by new entrants 1.
- Development and compute costs for AI products could reduce operating margins 1.
- The finance leadership was interim during 2026, which may create governance uncertainty during the transition 3.
Opportunities
Risks
- Insufficient innovationhigh
If Adobe fails to anticipate technological change, existing products could lose relevance 1.
- Competitive pressurehigh
Competitors with larger resources or more aggressive pricing could reduce sales and margins 1.
- AI-related risksmedium
Social, ethical or legal issues linked to artificial intelligence could create liability and extra costs 1.
- Brand reputationmedium
Misuse of products or public controversies could erode user trust and purchasing decisions 1.
- Acquisitions and strategic transactionsmedium
Integrating acquired businesses may cost more or take longer than expected, and anticipated benefits might not materialize 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If ARR and subscription revenue growth is sustained, the company could strengthen its leadership in creative and marketing software 13.
- Rapid adoption of AI-first products and a wider user base through freemium could generate additional revenue 3.
- Predictable subscription revenue and strong operating cash flow could support investment in innovation and share repurchases 13.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Fourth quarter fiscal 2026 results against targetsQ4 2026
- Development of total ARR and growth rate against the guided 10.2 percent2027
- Pace of AI-first ARR growth and monthly active user trendsnext 10-K
- Effects of the Semrush integration and new segment structure on margins2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Adobe aims to empower everyone to create, combining creation, productivity and customer experience tools in one integrated platform. The company serves five audiences: business professionals, consumers, creators, creative professionals and marketing professionals 1. Its strategy rests on an AI platform that includes commercially safe Firefly models and third-party partner models 1.
In the first quarter of fiscal 2026 Adobe combined its former segments, Digital Media, Digital Experience and Publishing and Advertising, into a single operating and reportable segment 2. The change reflects unified selling motions and integrated product innovation 2. For business and consumer users the main products are Acrobat and Adobe Express, and for creative and marketing professionals Creative Cloud and Adobe Experience Platform 12.
Adobe says its recurring subscription model is central, with subscriptions representing 96% of total revenue in fiscal 2025 1. The company also reports annualized recurring revenue and remaining performance obligations, which give a view of contracted future revenue 13.
Segments
Digital Media
The Digital Media segment includes Creative Cloud, Acrobat, Adobe Express and Adobe Firefly. In fiscal 2025 it generated revenue of 17.65 billion USD, up from the prior year 1. Digital Media ARR reached 19.20 billion USD at the end of fiscal 2025 1.
Customer groups
Management now reports performance across two customer groups: Business Professionals & Consumers and Creative & Marketing Professionals 2. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, subscription revenue was 4.65 billion USD for the Creative & Marketing Professionals group and 1.91 billion USD for the Business Professionals & Consumers group 2.
Market context
Adobe describes the market for creative and digital marketing solutions as highly competitive and rapidly changing, with limited barriers to entry and short product life cycles 1. The company expects competitive pressure to increase as AI is integrated into products 1.
Adobe sees large opportunities in AI, and its AI-first ARR grew more than 150% year over year in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 3. If this momentum holds, it could support growth in a market with many new entrants 3.
Trends
- Generative AImixed
Adobe invests in its own AI models and partnerships, and AI products could lift adoption and retention if monetized effectively 13. However, compute costs and uncertainty about monetization could weigh on margins 1.
- Freemium expansionmixed
The company is widening its user base through freemium strategies, which could bring in more customers but may delay conversion to paid subscriptions 3.
- AI regulationheadwind
AI legislation, including the EU AI Act, could raise compliance costs and change development practices 1.
- Demand for personalized content at scaletailwind
Digital marketing is moving toward fast, personalized content, and Adobe's integrated platforms could benefit from this shift 12.
Competitive position
Adobe faces varied competitors: general productivity platforms, web and mobile design tools, AI-first companies and social platforms with editing features 1. In marketing, competition comes from large enterprise software firms and smaller specialized companies 1.
Management says differentiation comes from integrating products in one ecosystem and from first-party customer data, but warns that lower-priced offerings and competitor launches could pressure margins 1.
- Professional creative suites and design tools
Rivals offering professional imaging, video and design tools that overlap with Creative Cloud 1.
- General productivity platforms
Productivity apps with document and creation features that compete with Acrobat and Express 1.
- AI-first creative companies
Newer companies offering AI-based content generation that can gain adoption quickly 1.
- Enterprise cloud and marketing software companies
Large enterprise software providers offering digital experience and marketing automation 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Here are Wednesday's biggest analyst calls: SpaceX, AMD, Apple, Adobe, CoreWeave & moreCNBC — Top News · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Investors should sell this struggling software stock, Citi saysCNBC — Top News · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Aussie Adobe assailant Canva announces layoffs in re-org affecting 22% of staffThe Register · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- John Glasgow, director general, director financiar și fondator al Campfire – Seria de interviuri - Unite.AISurge — Google News · 03 Nov 2026 · RO
- Adobe’s Premiere mobile app is adding licensed music from ‘leading artists’The Verge · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- One Open-Source Repo to Replace Adobe, Microsoft, and SalesforceIt's FOSS · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Affinity is coming to Linux, but there’s no release date yetOMG! Ubuntu · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Bloatware in Aftermarket Auto PartsSchneier on Security · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- [AINews] Building AIE CODE: The top Coding Agent ConferenceLatent Space Newsletter · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Adobe, Veeam, Juniper Networks Patch Critical VulnerabilitiesSecurityWeek · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Adobe Fixes 8 Critical Campaign Classic Flaws Allowing Code Execution and Security BypassThe Hacker News · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- Adobe Commerce PolyShell Attacks Breach Hundreds of Stores as Brotli Exploit Traffic EmergesThe Hacker News · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- Venture X Business vs. Business Platinum vs. Sapphire Reserve for Business: Three kings go head to headThe Points Guy · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- Ce impact a avut eroarea UTM din ChatGPT asupra traficului raportat de companii? (P)G4Media · 27 Oct 2026 · RO
- CISA Adds Two Known Exploited Vulnerabilities to CatalogCISA — Cybersecurity Advisories · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- Un vicepreședinte Adobe explică ce se petrece în spatele ecranului când zeci de milioane de oameni intră deodată pe același site. Interviu cu Dragoș Georgiță, VP of Engineering, Adobe RomâniaHotNews.ro · 27 Oct 2026 · RO
- IBM Introduces Identity and Control for AI Agents , Securing Frontier Intelligence for the EnterpriseSurge — GDELT DOC · 27 Oct 2026 · RO
- Multi‑Ratio Video Resizing for Mobile Feed and MarketingNetflix Tech Blog · 26 Oct 2026 · EN
- Bottles Creator Mirko Brombin Wants Microsoft Office on Linux, Not Its ClonesIt's FOSS · 25 Oct 2026 · EN
- Un developer a facut cu AI versiuni (gratuite) Open Source pentru Word, Adobe Photoshop, Premiere si Lightroom - MOBzine.roSurge — Google News · 23 Oct 2026 · RO
SEC filings
- Quarterly report22 Sept 2026
- Current report10 Sept 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report17 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report15 Jun 2026
- Current report11 Jun 2026Results of operations · Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report25 Mar 2026
- Current report12 Mar 2026Results of operations · Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement27 Feb 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-11-28 · SEC / Adobe Inc. · 15 Jan 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-08-28 · SEC / Adobe Inc. · 22 Sept 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Adobe Inc. · 10 Sept 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.