olivLaw · US equity research
BillionToOne, Inc. BLLN
Services-Medical Laboratories · SIC 8071 · Vertical: Services-Medical Laboratories (SIC 8071)
BillionToOne is a molecular diagnostics company that uses a proprietary single-molecule sequencing platform for prenatal and oncology blood tests. Its relevance now comes from rapid revenue growth and a return to operating profitability, with second-quarter 2026 revenue of 109.4 million USD and full-year 2026 guidance of 450 to 465 million USD.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, BillionToOne, Inc. (BLLN) stock was 113.89 USD (+3.11% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.3 bn USD, P/E 118.4 on diluted EPS of 0.96 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.68, 52-week range 64.03–149.97 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 123.0 m USD (+47.2% YoY), net income of 17.4 m USD (+204.5% YoY), diluted EPS 0.32 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 59.2
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 90.88 – 119.60
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.80 · band width 27.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 104.67 / 96.76
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 2.40 / 1.51
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +4.4% | −1.1% | +5.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −24.1% | −0.5% | −23.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | +39.9% | +4.4% | +35.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +39.2% | +12.3% | +26.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | unavailable | +13.5% | unavailable | +7.7% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +76.4% | unavailable | +69.6% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 45.1 m | 59.0 m | 66.6 m | 83.5 m | 96.1 m | 108.4 m | 109.4 m | 123.0 m |
| Cost of revenue | 19.4 m | 21.0 m | 23.1 m | 25.1 m | 27.4 m | 29.3 m | 32.3 m | 35.8 m |
| Gross profit | 25.7 m | 38.0 m | 43.5 m | 58.4 m | 68.6 m | 79.1 m | 77.1 m | 87.1 m |
| Research & development | 11.0 m | 10.4 m | 11.8 m | 13.0 m | 14.3 m | 14.7 m | 17.3 m | 20.2 m |
| SG&A | 26.4 m | 29.9 m | 33.3 m | 35.8 m | 44.0 m | 46.6 m | 54.3 m | 55.9 m |
| Operating income | -11.7 m | -2.3 m | -1.6 m | 9.6 m | 10.3 m | 17.8 m | 5.5 m | 11.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 1.8 m | 1.8 m | 1.7 m ≈ | 1.7 m ≈ | 1.7 m | 1.7 m | 1.8 m ≈ | 2.0 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 47.0 k | 40.0 k | 32.0 k | 20.0 k | 3.0 k | 10.0 k | 8.0 k | 6.0 k |
| Pre-tax income | -11.5 m | -3.9 m | -232.0 k | 5.6 m | 6.3 m | 18.5 m | 7.5 m | 17.4 m |
| Income tax | 24.0 k | 100.0 k | 14.5 k | -129.0 k | 320.0 k | 539.0 k | -536.0 k | 1.3 k |
| Net income | -11.5 m | -4.0 m | -246.0 k | 5.7 m | 6.0 m | 18.0 m | 8.1 m | 17.4 m |
| Diluted EPS | -1.13 ≈ | -0.39 | -0.02 | 0.10 | 0.15 ≈ | 0.34 | 0.15 | 0.32 |
| Operating cash flow | -8.4 m | 2.6 m | 1.2 m ≈ | 10.0 m ≈ | 10.8 m | 15.4 m | 9.1 m ≈ | 12.5 m ≈ |
| Capex | 2.1 m | 2.3 m | 2.9 m ≈ | 2.1 m ≈ | 1.5 m | 4.5 m | 4.0 m ≈ | 3.9 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | — | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 110.7, median 138.1, max 161.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 71.7 m | 152.6 m | 305.1 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +112.7% | +100.0% |
| Net income | -82.7 m | -41.6 m | 7.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -8.45 | -4.12 | 0.14 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -115.3% | -27.2% | 2.4% |
| Free cash flow | -59.8 m | -46.8 m | 15.7 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 496.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 57.2 m USD
- Net debt
- -438.7 m USD
- Equity
- 480.1 m USD
- Total assets
- 632.7 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.12x
- Current ratio
- 11.69x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 1.6%
- FCF margin
- 5.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 71.7 m | 152.6 m | 305.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 54.4 m | 71.7 m | 96.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 17.3 m | 80.9 m | 208.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Research & development | 22.4 m | 36.6 m | 49.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| SG&A | 64.4 m | 91.5 m | 143.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | -69.5 m | -47.1 m | 16.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 5.9 m | 7.0 m | 6.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -63.6 m ≈ | -40.1 m ≈ | 22.9 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 3.3 m | 2.4 m | 95.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -82.7 m | -41.5 m | 7.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 9.0 k | 29.0 k | 305.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -82.7 m | -41.6 m | 7.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -8.45 | -4.12 | 0.14 | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 9.8 m | 10.1 m | 21.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 97.3 m | 191.5 m | 496.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | 24.7 m | 41.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 8.7 m | 17.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 227.8 m | 560.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 17.1 m | 20.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 302.1 m | 632.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 4.3 m | 7.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 0 | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 51.5 m | 57.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 28.4 m | 48.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 134.3 m | 152.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | -219.1 m † | -251.7 m † | 480.1 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -53.7 m | -41.4 m | 24.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 6.2 m | 5.4 m | 8.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -59.8 m ≈ | -46.8 m ≈ | 15.7 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 82.8 m | -5.4 m | -8.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 13.4 m | 141.0 m | 288.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 546.0 k | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 59 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet100
- Returns0
- Quality71
- Valuation38
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 27.90 – 175.12 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)93.64 – 121.79 (Mid 104.53)WACC 9.1% · starting FCFF 33.9 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 21.8%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA116.74 – 175.12 (Mid 129.36)5 companies used · median multiple 18.8x · quartiles 16.0x – 28.6xAMS, DGX, FTRE, LH, RDNT
- Peers: P/E27.90 – 34.94 (Mid 31.79)4 companies used · median multiple 33.1x · quartiles 29.0x – 36.3xCDNA, DGX, LH, VCYT
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 59/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 11.3% | 87 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 68.6% | 55 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -9.1x | 100 (vs peers) | 15% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 1,655.3x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 11.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 118.4x | 0 (vs peers) | 15% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 15.4x | 80 (vs peers) | 15% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 2.7% | 33 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality71/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation38/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
BillionToOne, Inc. (BLLN). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 305.1 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 100.0%; net margin 11.3%; ROE 30.2%; net debt/EBITDA -9.1x.
The estimated value range is 93.64–121.79 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 104.53 USD, the price of 113.89 USD leaves a potential of -8.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -9.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 59/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 11.3%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -9.1x
- Interest coverage: 1,655.3x
- Current ratio: 11.2x
- EV/EBITDA: 15.4x
What contradicts it
- P/E (TTM): 118.4x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Services-Medical Laboratories (SIC 8071) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 23 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTRANatera, Inc. | 56.4 bn | — | -12.5% | -7.1% | +35.9% | +64% / +599% |
| LHLabcorp Holdings Inc. | 29.9 bn | 30.2 | 11.4% | 6.9% | +7.2% | +37% / +70% |
| DGXQuest Diagnostics Inc | 28.1 bn | 25.5 | 15.2% | 9.5% | +11.8% | +35% / +86% |
| GHGuardant Health, Inc. | 22.6 bn | — | — | -38.3% | +32.9% | +55% / +570% |
| CAICaris Life Sciences, Inc. | 9.5 bn | 97.6 | 17.2% | 9.2% | +97.0% | +30% / unavailable |
| GRALGRAIL, Inc. | 6.4 bn | — | -16.1% | -236.9% | +17.2% | +30% / unavailable |
| RDNTRadNet, Inc. | 6.3 bn | — | -2.1% | -0.9% | +11.5% | −3% / +142% |
| CDNACaredx, Inc. | 4.5 bn | 35.9 | 33.0% | 25.9% | +13.8% | +380% / +784% |
| VCYTVeracyte, Inc. | 4.2 bn | 37.5 | 8.8% | 20.4% | +16.0% | +11% / +105% |
| FTREFortrea Holdings Inc. | 2.0 bn | — | -12.3% | -2.6% | +1.0% | +64% / −29% |
| PSNLPersonalis, Inc. | 1.7 bn | — | -62.1% | -147.7% | −17.7% | +47% / +932% |
| BLLNBillionToOne, Inc. | 1.3 bn | 118.4 | 30.2% | 11.3% | +100.0% | unavailable / unavailable |
| CSTLCastle Biosciences, Inc. | 1.1 bn | — | -4.2% | -5.4% | +3.7% | −11% / +79% |
| FLGTFulgent Genetics, Inc. | 541.5 m | — | -8.0% | -26.0% | +13.8% | −33% / −29% |
| YDESYD Bio Limited | 492.0 m | — | -445.1% | -1,392.6% | +16.9% | −40% / unavailable |
| BDSXBiodesix, Inc. | 226.7 m | — | -540.0% | -27.0% | +24.1% | +160% / −28% |
| XGNExagen Inc. | 206.2 m | — | -113.8% | -26.6% | +19.7% | +8% / +363% |
| SERASera Prognostics, Inc. | 59.0 m | — | -49.7% | -34,866.7% | +5.2% | −39% / +4% |
| AMSAmerican Shared Hospital Services | 8.2 m | — | -7.5% | -5.8% | −0.9% | −43% / −48% |
| MDXHMdxhealth SA | 8.0 m | — | -2,440.4% | -31.1% | +19.8% | −96% / −95% |
| ACONAclarion, Inc. | 5.0 m | — | -59.0% | -10,978.5% | +65.6% | −72% / −100% |
| ADVBAdvanced Biomed Inc. | 3.5 m | 0.4 | 84.8% | 5,231.3% | unavailable | −75% / unavailable |
| BGLCBioNexus Gene Lab Corp. | 2.8 m | — | -33.7% | -82.4% | −21.9% | −79% / −90% |
| BNRBurning Rock Biotech Limited | 0 | — | -10.1% | -10.3% | +9.2% | −41% / +55% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for BLLN from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 341.90 Total return 200% · Per year 200% | 601.68 Total return 428% · Per year 428% | 902.53 Total return 692% · Per year 692% |
| 3 years | 405.54 Total return 256% · Per year 53% | 795.73 Total return 599% · Per year 91% | 1,299.64 Total return 1,041% · Per year 125% |
| 5 years | 481.04 Total return 322% · Per year 33% | 1,052.35 Total return 824% · Per year 56% | 1,871.48 Total return 1,543% · Per year 75% |
- Exit P/E± 198.93
- Net margin± 139.25
- Annual revenue growth± 103.86
- Annual dilution± 11.70
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
In brief
BillionToOne is a molecular diagnostics company that uses a proprietary single-molecule sequencing platform for prenatal and oncology blood tests. Its relevance now comes from rapid revenue growth and a return to operating profitability, with second-quarter 2026 revenue of 109.4 million USD and full-year 2026 guidance of 450 to 465 million USD 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- Rapid growth in revenue and test volume, with operating profitability in the reported quarter 3.
- Patented technology platform, published clinical data and recognition in medical guidelines for prenatal products 1.
- High share of prenatal products, with recurring clients and very low customer churn, according to the company 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- Expansion of the Unity Fetal Risk Screen panel and launch of a tissue-free MRD test could widen the addressable market 23.
- If medical guidelines include more of the company's tests, coverage and volumes could increase 1.
- The new Austin facility could roughly triple testing capacity if the expected schedule is met 1.
Risks
- Dependence on reimbursementhigh
Most revenue comes from third-party payors, and refusal or reduction of reimbursement could directly affect revenue 1.
- Internal control weaknesseshigh
The company has identified material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting, and remediation is not assured 1.
- Payment recoupmentmedium
Payors may demand return of amounts previously paid, and litigation can be costly 1.
- Changes in medical guidelinesmedium
Medical society guidelines can change, and tests may lose coverage or be overtaken by competitors 1.
- Investment executionlow
Laboratory expansion and new product launches depend on execution, and delays could postpone expected benefits 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If revenue and test volume growth persist, the company could meet its annual guidance and strengthen its position as a leader in prenatal testing.
- It could benefit from panel expansion, new oncology products and added laboratory capacity, if these launch on schedule 23.
- Operating profitability and a rising gross margin could provide resources for investment without weakening the financial position 3.
What would break the thesis
- If payors reduce coverage or change policies, revenue growth could slow considerably.
- Competition in NIPT and liquid biopsy testing could reduce average prices or volumes, especially if guidelines favor other providers 1.
- Large investments in infrastructure and research could compress profitability if revenue growth does not cover them.
What to watch
- Achievement of full-year revenue guidance2026
- Trend in gross margin and average selling price per testQ3 2026
- Launch of the tissue-free MRD testQ4 2026
- Commissioning of the Austin facility2028
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
The business
BillionToOne develops molecular tests based on cell-free DNA from blood, processed on its smNGS platform and patented Quantitative Counting Templates. The company launched UNITY in 2019, the first NIPT that assesses fetal risk for recessive conditions without a paternal sample 1. In oncology, Northstar Select and Northstar Response were launched in 2023 1.
The cost structure is dominated by laboratory investment and research and development, and the company is building a new facility in Austin, Texas, expected to process commercial samples in 2028 1. The stated aim is to keep profitability at similar levels even with significant continued investment 3.
Segments
Prenatal (UNITY)
Prenatal tests are the dominant segment, making up most of revenue. In Q2 2026 prenatal revenue grew 55% from Q2 2025 3. The line includes UNITY Fetal Risk Screen, UNITY Aneuploidy and UNITY Fetal RhD NIPT, and the Unity Confirm test was announced in May 2026 12.
Oncology (Northstar)
The oncology segment includes Northstar Select, used to guide therapy selection, and Northstar Response, used to monitor response to treatment. Oncology revenue in Q2 2026 grew 176% from Q2 2025 3. The company is developing a tissue-free pan-cancer MRD test, expected to be commercially available in the fourth quarter of 2026 2.
Clinical trial support and other services
This line is small relative to the rest of the business and includes clinical trial support and other services. It represented 1% of revenue in 2025 1.
Market context
The company operates in the molecular diagnostics testing market, where reimbursement is central to adoption. Medical society guidelines, such as ACOG for prenatal tests and NCCN for oncology, directly influence payor coverage 1. The company states that it leads the prenatal NIPT market by revenue, based on ACOG guidelines 1.
The market is competitive and prenatal testing shows some commoditization, while in oncology competition comes from conventional liquid biopsy tests 1. If guidelines or reimbursement policies change, demand for the company's products could be affected.
Trends
- Expanding reimbursementtailwind
As volume grows, the company becomes an in-network provider with more payors, which lowers denial rates and raises average price 2. This mechanism drives growth but depends on payor decisions.
- Reimbursement pressureheadwind
Many payors may revise coverage or reduce amounts, and some tests are considered experimental. Recoupment of payments already made is a known practice and could affect revenue 1.
- Rising capital and operating costsmixed
Investment in new laboratories and research and development raises operating expenses. If revenue does not grow enough, operating margin could be compressed 13.
Competitive position
The company competes with other NIPT and liquid biopsy test providers. Several competitors have launched NIPT tests for recessive conditions, and the company argues its advantage comes from smNGS technology and accumulated data 1.
In oncology, competition includes conventional NGS and existing liquid biopsy tests, and the company states that Northstar Response is the only methylation-based assay that quantifies tumor burden at single-molecule level 1. Specific competitors are not named in the available sources.
- NIPT providers for recessive conditions
Several providers have launched similar tests for recessive conditions; the company argues its technological differentiation will maintain its advantage 1.
- NIPT providers using single nucleotide polymorphism methods
These providers use a higher fetal fraction cutoff, which the company says can lead to more inconclusive results 1.
- Conventional NGS liquid biopsy providers
The company says conventional tests have lower sensitivity for actionable solid tumor mutations 1.
- Standard imaging for oncology monitoring
The company has published data indicating Northstar Response predicted survival better than standard imaging in one cohort 3.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- BillionToOne SVP Sells 1,416 SharesYahoo Finance — News · 21 Sept 2026 · EN
- Jim Cramer Calls BillionToOne (BLLN) a “Pretty Darn Good Company”Yahoo Finance — News · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 21 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report29 Jun 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report16 Jun 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 May 2026
- Current report06 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement21 Apr 2026
- Annual report11 Mar 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / BillionToOne, Inc. · 11 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / BillionToOne, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / BillionToOne, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.