olivLaw · US equity research
Sera Prognostics, Inc. SERA
Services-Medical Laboratories · SIC 8071 · Vertical: Services-Medical Laboratories (SIC 8071)
Sera Prognostics develops and sells PreTRM, a blood test that predicts the risk of preterm birth, in a field where current screening methods miss most cases. The company's relevance now rests on new clinical evidence and the Illinois Medicaid law, which could expand access to the test, though revenue remains very small.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) stock was 2.02 USD (+4.40% on the day), with market capitalisation 59.0 m USD, beta 1.01, 52-week range 1.59–3.69 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 42.0 k USD (+162.5% YoY), net income of -8.1 m USD, diluted EPS -0.16 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 48.2
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.97 – 2.09
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.36 · band width 5.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.05 / 2.14
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.01 / -0.01
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +0.8% | −1.1% | +1.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +0.8% | −0.5% | +1.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | +11.3% | +4.4% | +6.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | −31.7% | +12.3% | −44.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | −33.3% | +13.5% | −46.8 pp | +7.7% |
| 3 years | +4.4% | +76.4% | −72.0 pp | +74.2% |
| 5 years | −81.7% | +63.7% | −145.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 24.0 k | 38.0 k | 17.0 k | 16.0 k | 10.0 k | 14.0 k | 30.0 k | 42.0 k |
| Cost of revenue | 32.0 k | 40.0 k | 41.0 k | 41.0 k | 42.0 k | 42.0 k | 50.0 k | — |
| Research & development | 3.1 m | 3.3 m | 3.3 m | 3.3 m | 3.2 m | 3.0 m | 3.5 m | 2.7 m |
| Operating income | -9.4 m | -9.3 m | -9.3 m | -9.0 m | -9.0 m | -9.4 m | -10.0 m | -8.9 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 211.0 k | 216.0 k | 208.0 k | 214.0 k | 244.0 k | 193.0 k | 162.0 k | 192.0 k ≈ |
| Interest expense | 6.0 k | 4.0 k | 2.0 k | 2.0 k | 1.0 k | 2.0 k | 2.0 k | 2.0 k |
| Net income | -8.6 m | -8.2 m | -8.0 m | -7.8 m | -7.9 m | -8.4 m | -9.1 m | -8.1 m |
| Diluted EPS | -0.25 ≈ | -0.20 | -0.16 | -0.16 | -0.16 ≈ | -0.17 | -0.18 | -0.16 |
| Operating cash flow | -6.3 m | -7.6 m | -5.5 m ≈ | -6.5 m ≈ | -6.1 m | -8.8 m | -6.3 m ≈ | -7.3 m ≈ |
| Capex | 8.0 k | 3.0 k | 281.0 k ≈ | 112.0 k ≈ | 330.0 k | 8.0 k | 16.0 k ≈ | 134.0 k ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 25.0 k | 82.0 k | 268.0 k | 306.0 k | 77.0 k | 81.0 k |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +228.0% | +226.8% | +14.2% | −74.8% | +5.2% |
| Net income | -19.8 m | -35.0 m | -44.2 m | -36.2 m | -32.9 m | -31.9 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -12.76 | -2.33 | -1.43 | -1.16 | -0.99 | -0.67 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -79,392.0% | -42,693.9% | -16,487.3% | -11,843.8% | -42,724.7% | -39,417.3% |
| Free cash flow | -17.0 m | -32.9 m | -35.4 m | -27.3 m | -14.2 m | -26.3 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 3.9 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 75.4 m USD
- Total assets
- 101.9 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.69x
- ROE
- -51.8%
- ROA
- -36.6%
- FCF margin
- -32,529.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 25.0 k | 82.0 k | 268.0 k | 306.0 k | 77.0 k | 81.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | — | — | — | 210.0 k | 82.0 k | 164.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | 96.0 k ≈ | -5.0 k ≈ | -83.0 k ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026derived |
| Research & development | 7.8 m | 11.0 m | 14.2 m | 15.2 m | 14.7 m | 13.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | -18.0 m | -35.4 m | -45.7 m | -39.8 m | -36.6 m | -36.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 895.0 k | 659.0 k | 756.0 k | 900.0 k | 833.0 k | 940.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -17.1 m ≈ | -34.7 m ≈ | -44.9 m ≈ | -38.9 m ≈ | -35.8 m ≈ | -35.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | — | — | — | 55.0 k | 28.0 k | 9.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | — | — | — | — | -32.9 m | -31.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -19.8 m | -35.0 m | -44.2 m | -36.2 m | -32.9 m | -31.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -12.76 | -2.33 | -1.43 | -1.16 | -0.99 | -0.67 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 1.6 m | 15.0 m | 30.9 m | 31.2 m | 33.2 m | 47.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 13.5 m | 58.9 m | 29.9 m | 3.9 m | 4.0 m | 3.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 2.0 k | 27.0 k | 113.0 k | 160.0 k | 34.0 k | 12.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 13.7 m | 110.3 m | 90.1 m | 61.3 m | 47.6 m | 40.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 965.0 k | 1.8 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Mar 2022verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | — | — | 0 | 1.0 m | 910.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 14.8 m | 147.0 m | 116.3 m | 95.4 m | 72.6 m | 101.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 441.0 k | 1.2 m | 1.5 m | 1.0 m | 2.0 m | 862.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 11.2 m | 8.4 m | 15.5 m | 24.4 m | 24.8 m | 24.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 12.3 m | 8.5 m | 17.4 m | 25.3 m | 24.8 m | 26.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | -125.6 m † | 138.6 m † | 98.9 m † | 70.2 m † | 47.8 m † | 75.4 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -16.9 m | -31.6 m | -34.6 m | -27.2 m | -14.2 m | -25.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 149.0 k | 1.3 m | 791.0 k | 128.0 k | 56.0 k | 726.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -17.0 m ≈ | -32.9 m ≈ | -35.4 m ≈ | -27.3 m ≈ | -14.2 m ≈ | -26.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -149.0 k | -82.6 m | 5.6 m | 438.0 k | 11.7 m | -28.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 9.2 m | 159.6 m | 5.0 k | 752.0 k | 2.6 m | 54.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 59.0 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
33% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -34,866.7% | 0 (vs peers) | 19% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -32.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 25% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -5,315.0x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.9x | 90 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -49.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 25% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet36/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
SERA PROGNOSTICS, INC. (SERA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 81.0 k USD in 2025; YoY growth 5.2%; net margin -34,866.7%; ROE -49.7%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 1.9x
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -34,866.7%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -32.9%
- Interest coverage: -5,315.0x
- FCF yield: -49.1%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Services-Medical Laboratories (SIC 8071) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 23 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTRANatera, Inc. | 56.4 bn | — | -12.5% | -7.1% | +35.9% | +64% / +599% |
| LHLabcorp Holdings Inc. | 29.9 bn | 30.2 | 11.4% | 6.9% | +7.2% | +37% / +70% |
| DGXQuest Diagnostics Inc | 28.1 bn | 25.5 | 15.2% | 9.5% | +11.8% | +35% / +86% |
| GHGuardant Health, Inc. | 22.6 bn | — | — | -38.3% | +32.9% | +55% / +570% |
| CAICaris Life Sciences, Inc. | 9.5 bn | 97.6 | 17.2% | 9.2% | +97.0% | +30% / unavailable |
| GRALGRAIL, Inc. | 6.4 bn | — | -16.1% | -236.9% | +17.2% | +30% / unavailable |
| RDNTRadNet, Inc. | 6.3 bn | — | -2.1% | -0.9% | +11.5% | −3% / +142% |
| CDNACaredx, Inc. | 4.5 bn | 35.9 | 33.0% | 25.9% | +13.8% | +380% / +784% |
| VCYTVeracyte, Inc. | 4.2 bn | 37.5 | 8.8% | 20.4% | +16.0% | +11% / +105% |
| FTREFortrea Holdings Inc. | 2.0 bn | — | -12.3% | -2.6% | +1.0% | +64% / −29% |
| PSNLPersonalis, Inc. | 1.7 bn | — | -62.1% | -147.7% | −17.7% | +47% / +932% |
| BLLNBillionToOne, Inc. | 1.3 bn | 118.4 | 30.2% | 11.3% | +100.0% | −13% / unavailable |
| CSTLCastle Biosciences, Inc. | 1.1 bn | — | -4.2% | -5.4% | +3.7% | −11% / +79% |
| FLGTFulgent Genetics, Inc. | 541.5 m | — | -8.0% | -26.0% | +13.8% | −33% / −29% |
| YDESYD Bio Limited | 492.0 m | — | -445.1% | -1,392.6% | +16.9% | −40% / unavailable |
| BDSXBiodesix, Inc. | 226.7 m | — | -540.0% | -27.0% | +24.1% | +160% / −28% |
| XGNExagen Inc. | 206.2 m | — | -113.8% | -26.6% | +19.7% | +8% / +363% |
| SERASera Prognostics, Inc. | 59.0 m | — | -49.7% | -34,866.7% | +5.2% | −33% / +4% |
| AMSAmerican Shared Hospital Services | 8.2 m | — | -7.5% | -5.8% | −0.9% | −43% / −48% |
| MDXHMdxhealth SA | 8.0 m | — | -2,440.4% | -31.1% | +19.8% | −96% / −95% |
| ACONAclarion, Inc. | 5.0 m | — | -59.0% | -10,978.5% | +65.6% | −72% / −100% |
| ADVBAdvanced Biomed Inc. | 3.5 m | 0.4 | 84.8% | 5,231.3% | unavailable | −75% / unavailable |
| BGLCBioNexus Gene Lab Corp. | 2.8 m | — | -33.7% | -82.4% | −21.9% | −79% / −90% |
| BNRBurning Rock Biotech Limited | 0 | — | -10.1% | -10.3% | +9.2% | −41% / +55% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SERA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 12 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
In brief
Sera Prognostics develops and sells PreTRM, a blood test that predicts the risk of preterm birth, in a field where current screening methods miss most cases. The company's relevance now rests on new clinical evidence and the Illinois Medicaid law, which could expand access to the test, though revenue remains very small.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has the best documented test in its class, backed by randomized trials and peer-reviewed publications 1.
- Its proprietary biobank and proteomics platform give a data advantage that is hard to replicate quickly 1.
- Economic evidence, including a dedicated CPT code, supports its reimbursement argument with insurers 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Continuing losses and need for capitalhigh
The company has incurred losses since inception, and if it cannot raise additional funds in time, it could have to curtail operations 1.
- Dependence on a single producthigh
Nearly all revenue comes from PreTRM, so any commercial or clinical setback would affect the whole company 1.
- Reimbursement riskmedium
If insurers refuse or reduce reimbursement, adoption of the test could remain limited 1.
- Customer concentrationmedium
In the near term, a large share of revenue could depend on a few direct customers, increasing vulnerability 1.
- Laboratory regulationlow
Changes in FDA rules for laboratory tests could delay launches or raise costs 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If adoption grows after the PRIME publication and the Illinois Medicaid law extends to other states, revenue could accelerate on a clinically validated base 13.
- The company could benefit from a data advantage that competitors would need years to reproduce 1.
- CE approval could open a new revenue source in Europe if the submitted package is accepted 3.
What would break the thesis
- Quarterly revenue remains very small and continuing losses could force new equity issues with dilutive effect 13.
- If insurers do not expand reimbursement, adoption could stay confined to a few states and pilot programs 1.
- Dependence on a single product could turn any commercial delay into a major risk for the whole company 1.
What to watch
- Quarterly test volume and PreTRM revenueQ3 2026
- Submission of the CE marking package for EuropeQ4 2026
- Extension of Medicaid coverage to other states after Illinois2027
- Disclosure on funding and cash runway in the next annual reportnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 12 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
The business
Sera Prognostics is a women's health company that uses its proprietary proteomics and bioinformatics platform to discover and commercialize blood-based biomarker tests and predictive analytic products for pregnancy. Its first commercial product, PreTRM, is a non-invasive test given at weeks 18 through 20 of gestation that estimates the risk of a singleton pregnancy delivering spontaneously before 37 weeks 1. The company says substantially all of its revenue to date comes from PreTRM and that it plans to extend its pipeline to other pregnancy complications such as preeclampsia and gestational diabetes 1.
The business model rests on demonstrating clinical and economic benefits of a test-and-treat strategy, supported by controlled trials PREVENT-PTB, AVERT PRETERM TRIAL and PRIME, which together enrolled more than 7,000 patients in treatment arms 1. The company seeks reimbursement from integrated systems, physician networks and insurers, and CMS priced the unique CPT code for PreTRM at 750 USD 1.
In 2026 the company expanded its commercial team, launched a fourth partnership program with a national payer and secured an Illinois Medicaid coverage mandate, yet quarterly revenue remains in the tens of thousands of dollars 3.
Segments
PreTRM test
PreTRM is the only broadly validated, commercially available blood-based test for predicting preterm birth, and in the second quarter of 2026 it generated revenue of just 30,000 USD 3.
Pipeline
The company is developing tests for other pregnancy conditions, such as preeclampsia and gestational diabetes, but these do not yet generate revenue and depend on future clinical evidence 1.
Market context
Approximately 3.7 million births occur annually in the United States, and as many as 30% of pregnancies may involve complications, creating a large pool for risk screening 1. The economic cost of preterm birth is estimated at approximately 25 billion USD per year in the US, a key argument for insurers 1.
The actual testing market is far smaller than this potential, because reimbursement is fragmented, Medicaid does not yet fund the test in most states and adoption depends on medical society guidelines 1.
Trends
- ACOG guidance on tailored prenatal caretailwind
ACOG's May 2025 update emphasizes risk assessment in prenatal care, which could open a path for biomarker tests to be included in guidelines 1.
- Publication of the PRIME studytailwind
PRIME results, published in 2026 in the Pregnancy Journal, show reductions in NICU admissions, and the company reports a slow rise in testing volume after publication 13.
- Expanded Medicaid access in Illinoistailwind
The June 2026 law requires Medicaid to cover proteomic blood tests for preterm birth risk, which could increase access to the test 3.
- Reimbursement hurdles and prior authorizationheadwind
Many payers still do not reimburse screening for low-risk pregnancies, and prior authorization requirements may slow adoption 1.
Competitive position
The company shows that standard care for short cervix, using transvaginal ultrasound with progesterone, performs less efficiently on NNS, but direct competition comes from molecular diagnostics and proteomics companies that the sources do not name 1.
Competition in the life science industry is intense, and the company cannot guarantee it will keep its position against rivals with greater resources 1.
- Molecular diagnostics companies
Molecular diagnostics firms compete for the same clinics and payers, though the sources do not name them 1.
- Proteomics companies
Firms using proteomics for biomarkers could develop rival tests, possibly cheaper or approved sooner 1.
- Standard short cervix screening
Transvaginal ultrasound with progesterone is already used in practice as an alternative, with lower efficiency in the source 1.
- Other prenatal test providers
Prenatal test providers may compete for budgets and physician attention, though the sources do not identify them 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report19 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report12 Aug 2026
- Current report12 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report30 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report04 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report01 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 May 2026
- Current report06 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Sera Prognostics, Inc. · 18 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Sera Prognostics, Inc. · 12 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Sera Prognostics, Inc. · 12 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.