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olivLaw · US equity research

Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. EPRT

Real Estate Investment Trusts · SIC 6798 · Vertical: Real Estate Investment Trusts (SIC 6798)

28.12USD+2.52% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Essential Properties Realty Trust (EPRT) is an internally managed REIT that owns single-tenant properties leased long term to middle-market companies in service-oriented and experience-based businesses such as car washes and medical clinics. Annualized base rent rose from 555.0 million USD at 31 December 2025 to 629.7 million USD at 30 September 2026, and the company has published a 2027 AFFO per share range, making its sale-leaseback acquisition strategy relevant to real estate investors.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. (EPRT) stock was 28.12 USD (+2.52% on the day), with market capitalisation 6.2 bn USD, P/E 22.9 on diluted EPS of 1.23 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 4.48%, beta 0.30, 52-week range 24.89–34.59 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 168.7 m USD (+16.4% YoY), net income of 60.2 m USD (−8.3% YoY), diluted EPS 0.27 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
6.2 bn USD
shares as of 21 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
22.9
Diluted EPS TTM 1.23 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
4.37%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
4.48%
DPS 12m 1.26
Beta (2y)
0.30
Volatility (1y) 21%
52-week range
24.8934.59

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
64.4
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
24.61 – 27.95
above the upper band · %B 1.05 · band width 12.7%
SMA 50 / 200
27.22 / 30.39
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.17 / -0.14
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+9.7%−1.1%+10.8 pp—
3 months−8.5%−0.5%−8.1 pp—
6 months−10.4%+4.4%−14.8 pp—
Year to date−5.2%+12.3%−17.5 pp—
1 year−4.9%+13.5%−18.4 pp+7.5%
3 years+20.4%+76.4%−56.0 pp+19.0%
5 years−6.8%+63.7%−70.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−28.0%
02 Mar 2026 → 21 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−35.9%
08 Nov 2021 → 29 Sept 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
−1.4%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
168.7 m USD
+16.4% YoY
Net income
60.2 m USD
−8.3% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.27
−18.2% YoY
net / operating
35.7% / 56.0%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue119.7 m129.4 m137.1 m144.9 m149.9 m158.8 m161.9 m168.7 m
Operating income79.1 m79.6 m87.8 m93.7 m98.8 m89.6 m104.4 m94.5 m
Depreciation & amortisation31.3 m33.5 m37.1 m37.5 m39.5 m41.2 m43.4 m44.6 m
Interest expense24.0 m23.8 m25.0 m28.3 m30.9 m29.9 m30.3 m34.2 m
Pre-tax income55.7 m56.4 m63.5 m66.0 m68.4 m60.1 m75.1 m60.9 m
Income tax158.0 k158.0 k156.0 k170.0 k159.0 k160.0 k635.0 k218.0 k
Net income55.4 m56.1 m63.2 m65.6 m68.1 m59.8 m74.3 m60.2 m
Diluted EPS0.30 ≈0.290.320.330.34 ≈0.280.340.27
Operating cash flow87.1 m77.2 m99.8 m ≈99.0 m ≈105.1 m99.8 m110.2 m ≈118.1 m ≈
Dividends paid51.1 m55.6 m58.7 m ≈59.8 m ≈59.8 m65.4 m67.6 m ≈70.2 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 29 percentile of its own 28-quarter history (min 18.4, median 23.9, max 52.6; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue96.2 m139.4 m164.0 m230.2 m286.5 m359.6 m449.6 m561.2 m
Revenue YoY+76.7%+44.8%+17.7%+40.4%+24.4%+25.5%+25.0%+24.8%
Net income15.6 m41.8 m42.3 m95.7 m134.1 m190.7 m203.0 m253.0 m
Net income YoY+148.0%+168.0%+1.0%+126.4%+40.1%+42.2%+6.4%+24.6%
Diluted EPSunavailable0.630.440.820.991.241.151.28
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailable−30.2%+86.4%+20.7%+25.3%−7.3%+11.3%
net %16.2%30.0%25.8%41.6%46.8%53.0%45.2%45.1%
Free cash flow44.2 munavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
60.2 m USD
Financial debt
2.5 bn USD
Net debt
2.5 bn USD
Equity
4.2 bn USD
Total assets
6.9 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.60x
Current ratio
unavailable
ROE
6.5%
ROA
4.0%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
359.6 m
2024
449.6 m
2025
561.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
242.8 m
2024
278.2 m
2025
359.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
95.5 m
2024
115.4 m
2025
147.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
338.3 m ≈
2024
393.6 m ≈
2025
507.6 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
52.6 m
2024
78.5 m
2025
108.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
192.1 m
2024
204.3 m
2025
254.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
636.0 k
2024
628.0 k
2025
644.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
190.7 m
2024
203.0 m
2025
253.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
1.24
2024
1.15
2025
1.28

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
153.5 m
2024
177.1 m
2025
198.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
39.8 m
2024
40.7 m
2025
60.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
47.9 m
2024
47.6 m
2025
48.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
4.8 bn
2024
5.8 bn
2025
6.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
1.7 bn
2024
2.1 bn
2025
2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
1.8 bn
2024
2.2 bn
2025
2.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
3.0 bn
2024
3.6 bn
2025
4.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
254.6 m
2024
308.5 m
2025
381.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Investing cash flow
2023
-857.1 m
2024
-1.1 bn
2025
-1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
580.0 m
2024
810.7 m
2025
798.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
168.2 m
2024
199.7 m
2025
233.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
24.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
25.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
27.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
29.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
24.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
23.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
43.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
11.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
8.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
23.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
87.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
60.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
41.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
6.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
3.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
5.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (EPS)
102.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
3.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
5.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
3.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
unavailable
input data missing

Cash

Operating cash flow
433.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
unavailable
input data missing
Free cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion
77.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
6.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
9.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
23.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
22.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
4.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
9.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
16.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
23.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
14.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
4.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
4.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

9 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 59 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

28.12 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 6.2 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
6.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
22.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
16.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
6.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
41.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
24.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
4.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

20/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 21 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 21 Oct 2026
verified 1135derived 91

Score by group

  • Balance sheet38
  • Valuation68
  • Quality77
  • Growth100
  • Returns43

Estimated value range

Low
16.98
USD per share
Mid
26.15
USD per share
High
37.11
USD per share
Price: 28.12 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -7.0% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -7.5% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 11.56 – 58.68 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • Net asset value (NAV)unavailable · input data missing
  • Dividend discount (DDM)11.56 – 15.55 (Mid 13.26)
  • Peers: P/B22.39 – 58.68 (Mid 39.04)
    32 companies used · median multiple 1.9x · quartiles 1.1x – 2.8x
    AKR, ALX, BRX, CHCT, COLD, DLR, DOC, EPR, ESS, EXR, FPI, FRT, GNL, HST, IRT, JBGS, KIM, LXP, NHI, O, PLD, PSA, RLJ, SELF, SITC, SLG, STAG, UDR, VICI, VMRK, VTR, WELL
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Real Estate Investment Trusts (SIC 6798)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 59/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROE · Quality6.3%46 (vs peers)7%
EBITDA margin · Quality87.0%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth25.1%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet5.3x17 (vs peers)15%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet3.1x64 (on a fixed band)13%
P/B · Valuation1.4x68 (vs peers)20%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation22.9x68 (vs peers)9%
Dividend yield · Returns4.5%49 (vs peers)15%
Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns102.6%25 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet38/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Growth100/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
  • Quality77/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Returns43/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation68/100 · 2/2 factors with a value

Memo

Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. (EPRT). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 561.2 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 24.8%; net margin 41.0%; ROE 6.3%; net debt/EBITDA 5.3x.

The estimated value range is 16.98–37.11 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 26.15 USD, the price of 28.12 USD leaves a potential of -7.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -7.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 59/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • EBITDA margin: 87.0%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 25.1%

What contradicts it

  • Net debt / EBITDA: 5.3x
  • Payout ratio (EPS): 102.6%
  • The valuation methods diverge

Versus the vertical median

Real Estate Investment Trusts (SIC 6798) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
22.9x
vertical median 28.8x
below median (−20.4%)
EV/EBITDA
16.5x
vertical median 15.8x
at median
P/S
9.7x
vertical median 6.9x
above median (+40.6%)
P/B
1.4x
vertical median 2.0x
below median (−31.6%)
ROE
6.3%
vertical median 7.6%
below median (−17.7%)
Net margin
41.0%
vertical median 22.8%
above median (+80.0%)
EBIT margin
60.6%
vertical median 37.9%
above median (+59.8%)
Revenue YoY
24.8%
vertical median 4.7%
above median (+431.4%)
Net debt/EBITDA
5.3x
vertical median 4.8x
above median (+12.1%)
Dividend yield
4.5%
vertical median 4.5%
at median

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
WELLWelltower Inc.181.9 bn106.24.0%12.7%+35.6%+19% / +178%
PLDPrologis, Inc.122.5 bn33.17.1%42.5%+7.2%+2% / +14%
EQIXEquinix Inc104.3 bn63.311.5%16.4%+5.4%+40% / +29%
AMTAmerican Tower Corporation90.4 bn27.390.6%30.7%+5.1%+7% / −7%
DLRDigital Realty Trust, Inc.65.0 bn48.36.2%21.7%+10.0%+15% / +33%
PSAPublic Storage64.0 bn34.916.0%37.8%+2.7%+25% / +32%
ORealty Income Corporation56.3 bn40.83.6%22.9%+9.1%+3% / +10%
VTRVentas, Inc.47.2 bn167.81.9%4.0%+18.5%+11% / +95%
CCICrown Castle Inc.39.2 bn48.6—20.1%−4.4%+1% / −21%
IRMIron Mountain Inc35.3 bn84.0—5.7%+12.2%+37% / +85%
EXRExtra Space Storage Inc.33.6 bn32.77.9%29.9%+3.7%+21% / +24%
VICIVICI Properties Inc.27.8 bn11.68.3%56.5%+4.1%−12% / −16%
VMRKVivmark Residential23.9 bn27.98.1%—+4.8%+3% / +12%
SBACSba Communications Corporation20.7 bn21.1—34.5%+5.1%+1% / −21%
HSTHost Hotels & Resorts, Inc.17.9 bn17.515.8%16.5%+7.6%+48% / +49%
ESSEssex Property Trust, Inc.17.5 bn41.78.0%22.7%+6.4%+3% / +27%
KIMKimco Realty Corporation17.4 bn28.65.8%27.8%+5.1%+25% / +34%
DOCHealthpeak Properties, Inc.13.9 bn37.14.9%12.3%+4.5%+10% / +16%
UDRUDR, Inc.11.8 bn17.521.8%40.8%+2.4%+2% / +11%
FRTFederal Realty Investment Trust9.9 bn19.915.6%38.6%+6.4%+16% / +20%
BRXBrixmor Property Group Inc.9.3 bn22.014.2%30.0%+6.7%+16% / +40%
STAGSTAG Industrial, Inc.7.3 bn27.17.6%29.9%+10.1%−4% / +6%
EPRTEssential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.6.2 bn22.96.3%41.0%+24.8%−5% / +20%
EPREpr Properties4.7 bn16.812.7%38.8%+2.9%+16% / +36%
COLDAmericold Realty Trust, Inc.4.3 bn—-16.5%-17.4%−2.4%+40% / −46%

1- and 3-year price returns: for EPRT from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
17.82
Total return -33% · Per year -33%
31.37
Total return 16% · Per year 16%
47.05
Total return 73% · Per year 73%
3 years
21.14
Total return -13% · Per year -4%
41.48
Total return 64% · Per year 18%
67.76
Total return 162% · Per year 38%
5 years
25.08
Total return 11% · Per year 2%
54.86
Total return 128% · Per year 18%
97.57
Total return 290% · Per year 31%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 10.37
  • Net margin± 7.26
  • Annual revenue growth± 5.41
  • Annual dilution± 0.61

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Essential Properties Realty Trust (EPRT) is an internally managed REIT that owns single-tenant properties leased long term to middle-market companies in service-oriented and experience-based businesses such as car washes and medical clinics. Annualized base rent rose from 555.0 million USD at 31 December 2025 to 629.7 million USD at 30 September 2026, and the company has published a 2027 AFFO per share range, making its sale-leaseback acquisition strategy relevant to real estate investors.

SWOT

Strengths

  • A broadly diversified portfolio across many tenants and concepts, with high occupancy and long-term leases that provide a stable revenue base 2.
  • Access to capital from several sources, including the revolving credit facility, bond issuance and the ATM equity program, which gives flexibility 13.
  • Credit risk monitoring supported by mandatory periodic financial reporting and a healthy rent coverage ratio 1.

Weaknesses

  • Reliance on a relatively small number of large tenants and concentration in certain states, which raises exposure to local events 1.
  • Relatively high leverage that may limit flexibility when interest rates are high or capital markets are weaker 13.
  • Dependence on external capital for growth, since REITs must distribute most of their taxable income 1.

Opportunities

  • Demand for financing from unrated middle-market companies could grow if banks stay selective 1.
  • The 2027 investment guidance and transaction pipeline could support portfolio growth 3.
  • Rent growth from contractual escalators could improve yields on existing investments 12.

Threats

  • A higher cost of capital could compress acquisition margins and lower the cap rates the company achieves 3.
  • Financial difficulties among tenants in sectors sensitive to discretionary spending or e-commerce competition could affect collections 1.
  • Changes in consumer behaviour could reduce visits to tenant locations, affecting their ability to pay rent 1.

Risks

  • Tenant default riskhigh

    If one of the largest tenants ran into financial difficulty, company revenues could be significantly affected, especially under master leases 1.

  • Geographic and tenant concentrationmedium

    The portfolio has meaningful exposure to a few states and a few large tenants, which could amplify the effect of a regional or sector downturn 1.

  • Capital access and financing costmedium

    If capital markets become more expensive or restrictive, growth through acquisitions could slow and borrowing costs could rise 13.

  • Credit assessment of unrated tenantsmedium

    Most tenants are unrated and internal credit tools may not capture credit risk accurately, which could lead to unexpected losses 1.

  • Asset impairment and write-downslow

    A decline in property fair values could lead to impairment charges, affecting reported results 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • A broadly diversified portfolio with near-full occupancy and long-term leases could support predictable revenue, and the 2027 AFFO guidance points to expected growth for shareholders 3.
  • If banks stay selective toward middle-market companies, the company could keep finding sale-leaseback deals with returns that reflect the risk well 13.
  • Contractual rent escalators and strict financial monitoring could partly protect income in inflationary periods and allow quick reactions to tenant deterioration 12.

What would break the thesis

  • If the cost of capital stays high, yields on new investments could be compressed and growth through acquisitions could become less profitable for shareholders 3.
  • Exposure to a relatively small number of large tenants and to a few states could amplify losses if one of these areas enters an economic decline 1.
  • Leverage and reliance on external capital could limit the company's flexibility if markets become more difficult 13.

What to watch

  • Cash cap rate on new investments relative to the cost of capitalQ4 2026
  • Delivery of the 2026 AFFO per share guidance and comparison with the 2027 rangenext 10-K
  • Net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDAre after settlement of forward equity salesQ1 2027
  • Concentration of the ten largest tenants and portfolio occupancy trend2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

The company acquires and manages single-tenant properties leased long term, mainly to middle-market companies in service or experience businesses. The portfolio had 2,300 properties at 31 December 2025, rising to 2,580 properties at 30 September 2026 with 99.6% occupancy 12.

The main model is sale-leaseback: the company buys a property and leases it straight back to the operator. In fiscal 2025, 95% of investments used this structure, and 66.8% of annualized base rent came from master leases at 31 December 2025 1. Tenants must provide periodic unit-level financial reporting, which supports credit monitoring 1.

Growth is funded through a mix of debt, equity and operating cash flow. At 30 September 2026 net debt stood at 3.8x annualized adjusted EBITDAre, and in the third quarter of 2026 the company closed investments of 342.2 million USD at a 7.7% weighted average cash cap rate 23.

Segments

Single-tenant net lease in service and experience businesses

This is the core segment, making up 91.7% of annualized base rent at 30 September 2026. It includes car washes, medical and dental services, early childhood education, quick service restaurants and automotive service facilities 21.

Other tenant categories

The remaining rent comes from other activities such as equipment rental and entertainment. The company says that diversification across tenants and concepts reduces the impact of an adverse event on any single tenant 1.

Market context

The company operates in the single-tenant net lease property market, which it describes as highly fragmented. It states that many REITs and institutional investors focus on rated tenants, leaving room for unrated middle-market companies 1.

Demand for sale-leaseback financing could be supported if banks remain less responsive to the long-term capital needs of middle-market companies, as the company argues 1. The cap rate and cost of capital will matter a great deal for deal attractiveness, and the company has signalled it will stay disciplined as the cost of capital changes 3.

Trends

  • Higher cost of capitalheadwind

    The company says it will keep investments disciplined so that cap rates reflect the cost of capital. If borrowing costs stay high, acquisition yields could be compressed 3.

  • Demand from middle-market companiestailwind

    Traditional banks could remain less active in financing unrated middle-market companies, leaving space for the net lease solutions the company offers 1.

  • Discretionary spending and customer behaviourmixed

    Tenants operate in industries that depend on consumers' discretionary spending. A shift in customer behaviour could affect tenant revenues and their ability to pay rent 1.

  • Rent indexationmixed

    Most leases provide contractual rent increases, which offer some protection against inflation, though adjustments may depend on changes in the Consumer Price Index 12.

Competitive position

The company describes competition from other REITs and institutional investors buying net lease properties, but argues they focus mainly on rated tenants. Competition for tenants in local markets is also a factor the company cites 12.

The company's stated advantage lies in existing operator relationships and its ability to originate and underwrite deals. The share of investments from existing relationships was 60% in the third quarter of 2026, suggesting reliance on such relationships 3.

  • Other REITs owning net lease properties

    The source texts mention REITs and institutional investors that buy net lease properties without naming them.

  • Institutional net lease investors

    The company says such investors focus on rated tenants, leaving middle-market companies less served.

  • Traditional bank financing

    Banks are described as less responsive to the capital needs of middle-market companies, creating room for the company.

  • Operators using equity or conventional debt

    These may be alternatives to sale-leaseback for owners of real estate seeking financing.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

  • Current report02 Nov 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Item 3.02 · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report21 Oct 2026
  • Current report21 Oct 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report16 Sept 2026
    Material agreement · Termination of a material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report16 Sept 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report14 Sept 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report09 Sept 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report08 Sept 2026
    Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report24 Jul 2026
    Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report22 Jul 2026

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. · 11 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. · 21 Oct 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. · 21 Oct 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.